Thailand's Growing Political Instability

 

Paetongtran Shinawatra has been removed from office. The charge was an ethics violation, however upon further analysis there was a political motivation. A phone call with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen was deemed an ethics violation. Prime Minister Paetongtarn's crime was she criticized the Thai military. The phone call was and discussion was not a serious criminal offense. No evidence exists of acts of treason or conspiracy. The dialogue between two figures was an act of diplomacy and conflict resolution. The removal of another Thai head of state could result in another coup. Thailand's 2006 and 2014 coups demonstrate that the military has more power than a civilian government. The Shinawatras can never govern effectively  due to the interference of the Thai military and the weaponization of the Constitutional Court. Whoever becomes the next prime minister will confront political factionalism, the military, and the attacks from the Constitutional Court. The elites, military, and the monarchy itself do not support a liberal democratic system. Various political parties are fighting to get majorities in the parliament. When neither can obtain dominance, fragile coalition governments are formed. The political impasses are used as a justification for the military to depose the government.  The Pheu Thai Party's strategy is to seek a means of dissolving parliament. Taking this action would be a means of preventing a military coup or deadlock with other political parties.  Thailand has the risk of becoming more like Myanmar and a wider conflict with Cambodia breaking out. The Thai public might want some authoritarianism as an alternative to ineffective government. Snap elections could be coming in the following months, yet this will not resolve domestic and regional challenges.  

Romania's Protests Against The Cancelled Presidential Elections

 

Romania is seeing protests due to the cancellation of the presidential election. The reasoning behind this decision was suspected Russian interference. The evidence has yet to be made public and the motivation is political. The possibility of the AUR Party winning was a threat to the political establishment. The AUR is far-right and it is assumed that this type of behavior would come from those of that political affiliation. Romania's Constitutional Court ruled in favor of the annulment of the presidential election. The Romanian Constitutional Court needs to provide evidence of electoral fraud or foreign influence for this decision to be legal. Otherwise, this is a case of the judiciary violating the public's right to vote. A new election is being scheduled, but there is concern they could be postponed. Romania's internal crisis poses a problem for the European Union. The claim is that the EU supports liberal democracy and human rights. However, if it is a political party from another ideological spectrum, then few words of condemnation are given. Calin Georgescu if he runs again, might find that the election will be annulled a second time. Public discord could grow from a error in the Romanian Constitutional Court. The only charges Georgescu was given were related to campaign funds and the use of certain digital technologies. Georgescu never revealed the financial sources for his campaign. An investigation would probably not show that Calin Georgescu was being influenced by a foreign government. Romania is not under Russian influence. During the Cold War, Romania was the most independent of the Eastern Bloc nations. Romania refused to invade Czechoslovakia in 1968 along with the U.S.S.R. Romania is being influenced by the EU and NATO countries. The coalition government tends to favor the West, rather than the Eastern European region.      

Sara Duterte Makes Assassination Threats Against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr

 

Sara Duterte the Vice President of the Philippines has made threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Asian country's two most powerful political families are now in conflict. Sara Duterte stated if she were to be murdered President Marcos would not be safe. A powerful struggle is occurring and it might escalate to violence. Sara Duterte also vituperated Martin Romualdez who serves as Speaker of the House. of Representatives. Allegations have been made about what Sara Duterte's office has done with certain funds. Sara Duterte could be subject to criminal charges. Removing her from office could cause complications. Upcoming elections in the House of  Representatives provide an opportunity for President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to consolidate political power. Sara Duterte feels that the political alliance did not provide her benefits. As time passed the association between the two leaders became more contentious. The fall out also reflects another controversy. Attempts have been made to change the  Constitution of the Philippines. Some fear this would enable a return to dictatorship and authoritarianism. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. insisted the changes are not to increase power of the executive branch. Sara Duterte could use the anger related to the constitutional changes for her own political gain. The coalition is disintegrating, which makes the political life in the Philippines more turbulent.     

South Sudanese Elections Are Postponed

 

South Sudan will postpone its elections. The government asserts it is to take a proper census, register political parties, and develop a new constitution. These statements are legitimate measures needed for functional government. The concern is that President Salva Kiir is using this time to extend his administration. The elections are now set to be held in December of 2026. The civil war that was waged for five years against Riek Machar ended in 2018. The conflict left 400,000 dead. The argument is that some authoritarianism will keep South Sudan from balkanizing. The civil war in Sudan also is a factor. The war there has effected oil exports, which South Sudan is dependent. Political opposition most likely will not be able to operate under a new national security act. Discontent among civil servants has emerged due to missed pay. The outcome of elections can be predicted. President Salva Kiir has been in power since 2011 and could remain for decades. Leaders such as Paul Kagame, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo,  Paul Biya, Denis Sassou Nguesso,  and Yoweri Museveni have been fixtures in African politics. The UN special envoy for South Sudan stated that the country was not ready for elections. The United Nations should not be dictating what South Sudan should do. The role of the UN is do conflict resolution and facilitate peace negations. Elections could be posted further into 2027. This effort is to extend President Salva Kiir's rule. South Sudan since its independence has known only one leader. If economic conditions become worse and discord is ignored South Sudan could fall into another civil war.   

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Has Fled Bangladesh

 

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has fled Bangladesh. Reports have suggested she has taken refuge in India. Demonstrations spread throughout Bangladesh due to the quota on government jobs. This became very contentious when positions were going to be reserved for relatives of veterans of the independence war. The quota seems to be for the younger generation, who never fought in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. A growing concern about nepotism and corruption was becoming part of the political discourse. Students are becoming the focal point of the protests. When they graduate, the expectation is they can compete for public sector jobs. Relatives of veterans are going to get an unfair advantage. The Supreme Court still supported the 5% government job reservation for the privileged. Even though they rejected the proposed increase their neutrality is being questioned. Prime Minister Sheik Hasina responded with crackdowns by law enforcement. The growing accusation is that the quota system was a means of rewarding those loyal to the Awami League. Bangladesh has seen economic growth, but this did not result in higher employment or  living standards. Students are particularly frustrated, because after attaining higher education employment is no present. Prime Minister Hasina did not address economic needs of the population. Imposing a curfew during protests caused her downfall. Instability in Bangladesh goes beyond its borders. India sees Bangladesh as an important ally.  Military coups over the years make Bangladesh's parliamentary system fragile. Coups occurred in 1975, 1981, 2007, 2009, and 2012. The recent coup is different. Refugees from Myanmar, instability in Pakistan, and the Taliban government in Afghanistan are going to be factors in Bangladesh. The military claims an interim government will be formed. The assertion was that Prime Minister Hasina resigned, but appears that she was forced from power. The protests are continuing despite her removal.    

Togo Prepares To Get A New Constitution

 

Togo is set to get another constitution. The 1992 constitution has been in place with revisions made in 2007. The controversy about a new constitution is that it might expand the powers of the presidency. It also empowers the parliament to elect the president directly. The political opposition claims this is an attempt to extend President Faure Gnassingbe's rule. Many African heads of state have used new constitutions to either extend term limits or abolish them completely. Lawmakers in Togo passed this measure and President Gnassingbe will give approval to it. What the government looks like is one in transition to a parliamentary system . That would mean Faure Gnassingbe would be more of a prime minister. The actual motivation is to make him president for life. The term limits are extended to six years. Under these conditions, Gnassingbe would be in power to 2031. His father passed away in office and Faure will not simply retire from Togolese politics. Modern dynasties are found in Syria, North Korea, Azerbaijan, and formerly Gabon. These governments are not hereditary monarchies, but the office of head of state is inherited. The Bongos of Gabon fell because the population could no longer tolerate their rule. Ultimately, it was the military that ended their regime. President Faure Gnassingbe was cognizant of the possible desire to have is administration removed. Under the new constitution it would allow him to undermine opposition and further expand the powers of the executive branch. As long as the Union for the Republic Party has most of the seats in the National Assembly, the president will have no serious threat. Togo with the new constitution indirectly encourages rule of decree.   

Imran Khan's Imprisonment

 

Pakistan is facing another political crisis. Imran Khan is now imprisoned on charges that observers believe has a political motivation. Removed from office in 2022, some would claim this was another coup. Pakistan has a long history of coups and Khan may have been victim to one. It is no coincidence that Nawaz Sharif has emerged. His intent is to form a coalition government. The Pakistan Tehreek -e-Insaf  Party is popular and polls predict a victory in the elections. Nawaz Sharif is favored by the military establishment and might intervene on his behalf. The Pakistan Muslim League needs a coalition to attain power. Even though other political parties and organizations are being suppressed, the PLM-N cannot assert full control. The Pakistan People's Party is also a major factor in elections. The two political dynasties which include the Sharifs and the Bhuttos are part of the political establishment. Keeping Khan imprisoned appears to be a means of stopping another political force emerging in the country. The Supreme Court should provide evidence and legal justifications for punishment. Otherwise Pakistan will resemble past military regimes . If Imran Khan were to be free, it is possible he could return to power. The military and Nawaz Sharif do not want him released, because Imran Khan would be a formidable political opponent. The dedication to the status quo has created more polarization in Pakistani society. Imran Khan's imprisonment is a reminder of how the military undermines the democratic institutions of Pakistan. 

Thaksin Shinawatra Returns To Thailand

 

The former prime minister has returned to Thailand. Thaksin Shinawatra has been in exile since the 2006 coup. Shortly after his arrival he was sent to prison. Reports now state that Thaksin suffered a medical emergency that required hospitalization. He faces charges of corruption, which Thaksin insists are politically motivated. The question remains how legitimate are the charges if they were made by a military government. Rumors have circulated that the former prime minister reach an agreement with the military establishment. The option available to him would be to seek a royal pardon. Thaksin does still have some political influence and imprisonment could have implications in future elections. The military  backed parties can always do a coup by stealth. Thaksin's businesses have been subject to scrutiny. The Advance Info Service contracts connection to the military indicated a monopoly run solely by the Shinawatra family. Telecommunications were not his only business ventures. Not all of his companies were successful, but the one that survived made him wealthy. The major crime he is accused of his hiding his assets. This indictment was made by the National Counter Corruption Commission. Thaksin Shinawatra  demonstrates that wealth has a negative effect on democratic institutions. His return does indicate a shift in Thailand's political atmosphere. However, many still remain in exile due to the military.   

Aung San Suu Kyi's Prison Term Reduced By The Military Regime

 

Aung San Suu Kyi had  six years taken off her prison term. She still faces 25 years. The charges against her have no legal basis. The regime itself is criminal seeing as it seized power when it did not like the results of the elections.  The objective by the military government is to have her perish in confinement. The junta has claimed that 7,000 prisoners have been released. How long they remain free depends on the political conditions in Myanmar . Public discord is growing with the military junta announcing elections are postponed. Even if a full pardon was given to Suu Kyi , public rage would not dissipate. While Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned, fighting spreads to other regions. The 2021 coup has sparked rebellions that could turn into full scale civil war. Other countries remain silent about the situation. The EU countries have abandoned Suu Kyi due to the Rohingya ethnic conflict and Myanmar's growing relationship with China. The military can only imprison Aung San Suu Kyi, but execution would only case a larger revolt. The counter move is to extend the state of emergency. The military realizes that Aung San Suu Kyi is a popular political figure. Keeping her imprisoned they think will diminish the influence of the National League for Democracy. The longer Aung Suu Kyi remains in prison the more she will be seen as a symbol of resistance. The military might have united the citizens in ways former governments have not. The Burmese population are coming to a consensus the military should not rule.    

Niger Has A Military Coup

 

Niger has fallen to a military coup. This is another case in a pattern seen in Mali, Guinea,  and Burkina Faso. Public discord, warfare, and regional instability has produced coups throughout the region. General  Abdourahamane Tchiani is now head of state. The African Union and ECOWAS  have  condemned the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum. Questions remain about the return to civilian leadership. The situation become more bizarre when it was relaized that Tchiani stopped a coup attempt in 2021. The constitution has been suspended with no time frame for it being brought back. Other measures have been taken which include curfews and closing the border of Niger. Power transition and democratic government have not been successful in Niger. This is the fifth coup in Niger's history. These coups occurred in 1974, 1996, 1999, and 2010. The biggest source of Niger's challenges are ISIS and foreign influence in the country. The Sahel has seen a dramatic rise in terrorism and various insurgencies. Groups such as Al Murabitoun, Ansar Dine, Katibat Macina, and Boko Haram are local to the Sahel. The Islamic State of West Africa, Islamic State of the Greater  Sahara , and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb have influence from other countries outside the African continent. These groups fight across borders.   Abdourahamane Tchiani stated the reason for the coup was that President Mohamed Bazoum was unable to keep Niger secure. It is uncertain that the military regimes will do any better at fighting rebel groups or terrorist organizations. The excuse of fighting terrorists and insurgents could used to create more authoritarian political structures. Niger could become isolated if the majority of the continent still recognizes Mohamed Bazoum as head of state.  

Hun Sen Will Hand Power To Hun Manet

 

Hun Sen is one of the longest serving heads of state in the world. The longtime Cambodian prime minister made the announcement he will resign. Hun Sen's son Hun Manet will be his successor . This was a surprise considering that the Cambodian People's Party has remained dominant. The election victory has been questioned as many cite the political opposition was unable to operate. A 38 year reign of Hun Sen continued enabled by an autocratic state apparatus. The National Rescue Party was in no position to challenge the rule of the Hun family. Prime Minister Hun Sen will not retire from public life. He will maintain involvement in the government. The National Election Committee has the ability to prevent certain political parties from running. Hun Manet has an advantage coming into office. He is chief of Cambodia's army. This means the military has loyalty to him and can be used to suppress revolts. Cambodia's political system resembles that of Thailand and North Korea. The military has large amounts of influence in Thailand. North Korea has a dynastic system of succession under a one party state. Countries like Syria, Togo, and Chad share this trait even though they are not monarchies. Hun Sen's term is five years, but he did not specify a date for the transfer of power. No specific reason was made public for making the change. Laos and Vietnam are going to have more interest in what happens in Cambodia. Myanmar might find an ally in a Hun Manet regime.   

Protests Against Peruvian President Dina Boluarte

 

Peruvians are showing their frustration with the current administration. Demonstrations have spread across the country. Most of the protesters are either associated with leftist groups and labor unions. The discord is being generated from the ineffective leadership of President Dina Boluarte. The accusation is that her government has become more authoritarian. Legal question remain about the removal of former president Pedro Castillo. Evidence suggest that attempts were made to depose his government by right-wing factions. He could not bring stability and the biggest error was dissolving the congress. Dina Boluarte was not elected. One of the demands of protesters is that she either resigns or new elections to be held. The biggest motivation for public discord is growing poverty and wealth gaps. Peru is a major copper producing nation, but only a few people of benefited from this natural resource. Being a large metal producing country, more Peruvians should see an increase in their income. Rage has grown so much that the demands for a new constitution and the congress to be dissolved are being proposed by activists. Peru's government in response has deployed an estimated 24,000 police officers. President Dina Boluarte is developing a network  of repression to remain in power. If elections were held in the next few months, most Peruvians would not vote for her. Peru since 2017 has developed into an illiberal democracy. A former Free Peru Party member has now become a more conservative president. Dina Boluarte's power comes from the congress, police, and military. All those institutions are being weaponized against the population. Either a coup or uprising will end her presidency if elections do not take place. The only means of defense  the Peruvian public  has are demonstrations and suffrage.