Attempted Military Coup In Benin

 

Benin thwarted an military coup. Military coups are becoming more common across West Africa. The interior minister has reported that President Patrice Talon was safe. President Talon's exact location remains unknown. The administration did provide a statement. The coup plotters were condemned for disturbing the peace. A response from ECOWAS was to deploy soldiers. Forces from Ghana, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Sierra Leone are coming to support Benin's military. The concern with this relates to Benin's sovereignty and independence. Beninese are going to view such actions as occupation of their country. ECOWAS does not want governments like Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Africans are questioning institutions like ECOWAS, who at times as more of  an alignment to Europe and North America. All the coups of the 2020s are not revolutionary movements. Chad's coup was the assertion of the power of the Deby family. Little is known about the coup plotters. The name they give themselves is the Military Committee for Refoundation. This coup plot makes some more suspicious of the Beninese Armed Forces. Certain soldiers could be sympathizers with the Military Committee for Refoundation. Instability can cause intervention from neighbors and EU interference. The coup plot should be a reminder to the Beninese government to confront discord and corruption. Those grievances become the catalyst for military coups in African countries.      

Guinea-Bissau Falls To Military Rule

 

Guinea-Bissau has become another African nation to fall under military rule. The military coup was induced when disputes over the presidential election were escalating. The military asserted the coup was launched to prevent a deterioration of security. Election results were not announced. The error of opposition candidate Fernando Dias and President Umaro Sissoco Embalo was to claim victory before all votes were tabulated. Besides internal political discord, Guinea-Bissau struggles with foreign interference. Guinea-Bissau is a transport area for illicit drug trafficking. Drugs coming from South America are smuggled into the country and make their way to Europe. A series of coups continue to occur across West Africa and Central Africa. Corrupt governments and failures of liberal democracy have pushed militaries to act. All the coups are not revolutionary acts or objections to neo-colonial imperialism. While the coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Gabon were welcomed Guinea-Bissau is a different case. A number of  government institutions  are suspended and the electoral commission has done nothing to confront the junta. A prime minister has been appointed, but real administrative power rests with General Horta Ina-A. The military junta claims it will release the election results, but this could be a means of deflecting unconstitutional actions. Dias and Embalo are no longer in Guinea-Bissau. Fernando Dias accused President Embalo of inducing a self-coup. Little evidence exists of this claim and the junta made no further statements. Guinea-Bissau had military coups in 1980, 2003, and 2012. More coups could happen if  transition of power, electoral process, and the public are not respected. 

Madagascar Under Military Rule

 

Madagascar is now subject to military rule. Protests by youth groups caused the fall of President Andry Rajoelina. The head of state fled the country and this left a power void. Colonel Michael Randrianirina was in a position to seize power and it has been alleged that the High Constitutional Court invited him to do so. This leads to speculation that other parts of the government were plotting Andry Rajoelina's removal. The unit responsible for military rule is known as CAPSAT. President Andry Rajoelina was last seen departing on a French military  plane. He never officially resigned and claimed there were threats on his life. The 2025 coup was not the first military takeover of Madagascar. President  Marc Ravalomanana was deposed by a coup in 2009. Andry Rajoelina would take control of the High Transitional Authority being head of state from 2009 to 2014. The following period would be known as Madagascar's fourth republic. Rajoelina would be elected in 2019. It appeared as if he was a permanent fixture in the politics of the island nation. The error in 2025 was making an attempt to dissolve the National Assembly. The response from the governing body was to impeach the president. A military government is not going to stop protests. As long as power and water cuts continue demonstrations will increase. Corruption has cause much of the public discord and youth can no longer wait for gradual change. The African Union responded to the coup by suspending Madagascar. 

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra Suspension And The Hun Sen Scandal

 

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been suspended from her governance duties. The scandal relates to a phone call with Hun Sen. The former prime minister of Cambodia is now president of the Senate. Thailand and Cambodia are now involved in a escalating  border dispute. The call was seen by the more nationalistic elements of Thailand as a violation of ethics. The discussion was about the current tension between the two countries. Instead, it was exaggerated to be some act of treason or evidence Prime Minister Paetongtran is a puppet. Neither of these accusations have evidence. Hun Sen during the phone call expressed harsh criticism of the Thai military. The real scandal is that the Thai military has more control over government than the civilian leadership. The Hun Sen scandal is about the Thai military attempting to stop peaceful resolutions with Cambodia. Thailand could be headed for another coup. The pattern seems similar to 2006 and 2014. A few senators in Thailand submitted a petition for her removal from office. The Constitutional Court then took the recommendation of investigating ethics violations. This is an attempt to criminalize political opponents. The Thai military was responsible for the removal of her other family members who were elected to office. Yingluck Shinawatra was removed from office by the Constitutional Court. The murder of a Cambodian soldier on the border caused a sharp decline in diplomatic relations. The only means to improve conditions is to discuss matters. A phone call attempting to prevent a war should not be met with suspension form office. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has only 15 days to organize legal defense for her case. The verdict most likely has been determined without the trial. If heads of state cannot engage in dialogue with foreign leaders, resolving issues will be impossible. The Hun Sen scandal is about the Thai military trying to sabotage peaceful resolutions to the Cambodian border dispute.   

Earthquake Strike Myanmar and Thailand

 

Myanmar and Thailand have experienced devasting earthquakes. Natural disasters produce a series of long term problems for public health, infrastructure, and housing. Homelessness will increase as a result of destroyed buildings. The military regime in Myanmar has no plans to address the concern of people who lost their homes. Reports estimate that the deaths in Myanmar are 1,600. The number could increase as more debris is cleared. Thailand's capital was damaged from the earthquake. Roads and bridges were also destroyed from the natural disaster. Rebuilding infrastructure is going to require major investments. Myanmar and Thailand might struggle to generate the funds for reconstruction. The military regime also is hostile to external contact. Hospitals are overwhelmed with the injured. The earthquake reveals the need to engineer earthquake resistant buildings. The earthquake was so powerful that skyscrapers in Bangkok were mot spared. The reason Myanmar is so susceptible to earthquakes relates to its location. It is located on a convergence area of the Earth's four major tectonic plates. Myanmar rests on the Sagaing fault. This explains why Mandalay was hit with immense force. Buildings that are older are going to be more vulnerable to collapse. Thailand's older buildings do not meet the safety construction standard. Vigorous earthquake protection for buildings must be required by law. Although regulations do exist, it appears most were not followed in Thailand.    

Idi Amin Proposes An OAU Force To Fight European Colonial Imperialism (1973)

 

Idi Amin proposed the Organization of African Unity create an armed force. The Ugandan leader suggested this force liberate African territory still under European colonial imperialism. Namibia, Angola, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Sinai Peninsula lost by Egypt were areas of concern. The OAU force Idi Amin proposed be modeled along the lines of NATO or the Warsaw Pact. A large military defensive  alliance would show France and the UK Africans could fight back. An OAU force was not a terrible idea, but Idi Amin's intentions were not altruistic. Idi Amin most likely wanted to extend Uganda's influence over all of Africa at the expense of other OAU members. His government was a military dictatorship and that brought into question the desire for liberation of the people of Africa. The declining relations with Tanzania also would be an obstacle to a OAU force proposal. Uganda and Tanzania would go to war. By 1979 Idi Amin was deposed and the OAU force did not materialize. The African Union however would develop the African Standby Force (ASF) in the early 2000s.   

Mahamat Deby Consolidates Power In Chad

Chad held a  presidential election. The outcome was as most observers predicted with military ruler Mahamat Deby winning most of the vote. The legitimacy has been questioned by political opposition. Chad is transforming into a country of dynastic rule. Although a military regime it has similarities to Togo and Gabon. One family is going to rule Chad for a number of years. If Idriss Deby was not killed by rebels he would still be president. The rule of the Deby's began in 1990. Chad continues to be an ally of France. However, with the French exit from Mali and Niger a void will grow. Chad could become a more powerful regional player in the Sahel. President Mahamat Deby might establish closer diplomatic relations with Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali. A common enemy of rebel groups and terrorist organization would bring these countries together in an alliance. According to the results Mahamat won 61.3 % of the vote. The dispute was that the elections were not free or fair. African Union observers were not present. President Mahamat Deby does not have absolute control. He remains reliant on a ruling coalition. The military has immense influence over government. Algeria and Egypt also have this obstacle and at times coups occurred. If Mahamat maintains the support of the military his leadership will be secured. The 2022 crackdown forced some Chadians to flee abroad. Those suspected of involvement  in the assassination of Idriss Deby are among the Chadians that left. Most assume that foreign policy and internal matters will remain the same. Developments in Sudan and the relations with France will force a change in direction. Chad's transformation into a dynastic based system of government is the most noticeable.  

 

Aung San Suu Kyi's imprisonment Location Unknown

 

The military dictatorship announced that Aung San Suu Kyi was relocated. Suu Kyi was in  prison, but was moved to the status of being under house arrest. Her location has not been made public.  The justification was that a heatwave could threaten the health of elderly prisoners. While it is dubious the military regime is concerned about human rights, other factors were considered. If Aung San Suu Kyi were to get ill the regime would be blamed. The condition of the prison and the medical staff are not documented. Reports of Aung San Suu Kyi's health suggest she is suffering from a number of conditions. What little information has been released is that she was dealing with  vomiting, dizziness, and possible gum disease. The 78 year old politician and activist has been denied medical treatment. If Aung San Suu Kyi dies in detention, the military will have made a martyr. This will only cause resistance to grow against the regime. The civil war the Myanmar is facing could intensify. Based on her current prison sentence, Suu Kyi's prison sentence is 27 years, when means that she would be more than 100 years old when released. The junta intends to have her perish in detention. The other possible plan is to keep her imprisoned until her political influence wanes. Aung San Suu Kyi is not the only one imprisoned. Citizens and political figures are being incarcerated for rejecting the military dictatorship. Aung San Suu Kyi's treatment reveals that Myanmar is transforming into an authoritarian police state. 

The Status of Togo

 

The change in government in Gabon will have an influence over Togo. Togo also shares a border with Burkina Faso, which has a new military regime. President Faure Gnassingbe has been the Togolese head of state since 2005. Since 1967 one family has ruled Togo. Gabon and Togo are similar in this regard. The sons inherited the presidency from their fathers. The northern region has become more unstable with infiltration of terrorist groups. Part of this was the reason for the drastic change in state security. The ministry of the armed forces became part of the presidency. The intent is not about fighting terrorist organizations or armed groups. The policy established in 2022 was designed to secure the power of the Gnassingbe family. The measure was a presidential decree to ensure President Faure Gnassingbe remains in power. The state will become more authoritarian in the face of changing governments in the region. Political opposition is not strong enough to vote President Faure Gnassingbe out of office. Demonstrations were held in 2017 and 2018. These had little effect on the government. If ECOWAS actually does intervene in Niger, Togo would probably support it. The hope is that if there was a coup in Togo, ECOWAS would come to the aid of President Gnassingbe. A conflict would draw Benin in as well, while destabilizing Ghana and Nigeria. The parliament approved the constitutional change which would allow Faure to remain in office to 2030. The next election would be in 2025 and terms are a total of five years. President Faure Gnassingbe could  convince the parliament to eliminate term limits completely. Considering the changes to the security apparatus, it appears Faure will not be subject to removal like other longtime leaders in West Africa. The presidential election of 2025 could tear the Togo apart. The Gnassingbe family's grip on power is similar to the governments  of Syria, North Korea, Chad,  and Cambodia. One family has dominance over the nation's politics. Togo as the years pass could be built up as a bulwark against the newly formed military regimes in West Africa.    

President Ali Bongo Ondimba Has Lost Power To The Military

 

Gabon has become another African country that deposed a longtime leader. President Ali Bongo Ondimba has been placed under house arrest by the military. This comes after a contentious election in which Ali Bongo was declared the winner. The Bongo Ondimba family has ruled Gabon since 1967. Omar Bongo, the father of the current president was supported by France and developed an authoritarian power structure. When Omar Bongo died in 2009, Ali Bongo became his successor. Debates remain about how free and fair elections have been since the Bongo Ondimba family have been in politics. A portion of Gabonese welcomed the coup, because it meant that a new form of government could come into existence. Voting was not going to remove the Bongos and  presidential term limits were never discussed. Protests against the government did happen in 2016. A coup attempt in 2019 was foiled. The military launched another coup in 2023 and so far it appears successful. Gabon has oil and mineral resources, but the Bongos failed to improve living standards of the Gabonese. France has interest in keeping a regime in power to extract these resources. The change in government certainly will get the attention of Cameroon , Equatorial Guinea, and the Republic of Congo. Paul Biya, Dennis Sassou Nguesso, and Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo could come to the realization their countries could be subject to military coups. A major political shift that started in 2020 is spreading across the African continent. Either the new regimes will revert to another form of authoritarianism or follow an alternative political path. Gabon now joins Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in the group of African countries under military rule.  

Aung San Suu Kyi's Prison Term Reduced By The Military Regime

 

Aung San Suu Kyi had  six years taken off her prison term. She still faces 25 years. The charges against her have no legal basis. The regime itself is criminal seeing as it seized power when it did not like the results of the elections.  The objective by the military government is to have her perish in confinement. The junta has claimed that 7,000 prisoners have been released. How long they remain free depends on the political conditions in Myanmar . Public discord is growing with the military junta announcing elections are postponed. Even if a full pardon was given to Suu Kyi , public rage would not dissipate. While Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned, fighting spreads to other regions. The 2021 coup has sparked rebellions that could turn into full scale civil war. Other countries remain silent about the situation. The EU countries have abandoned Suu Kyi due to the Rohingya ethnic conflict and Myanmar's growing relationship with China. The military can only imprison Aung San Suu Kyi, but execution would only case a larger revolt. The counter move is to extend the state of emergency. The military realizes that Aung San Suu Kyi is a popular political figure. Keeping her imprisoned they think will diminish the influence of the National League for Democracy. The longer Aung Suu Kyi remains in prison the more she will be seen as a symbol of resistance. The military might have united the citizens in ways former governments have not. The Burmese population are coming to a consensus the military should not rule.    

Niger Has A Military Coup

 

Niger has fallen to a military coup. This is another case in a pattern seen in Mali, Guinea,  and Burkina Faso. Public discord, warfare, and regional instability has produced coups throughout the region. General  Abdourahamane Tchiani is now head of state. The African Union and ECOWAS  have  condemned the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum. Questions remain about the return to civilian leadership. The situation become more bizarre when it was relaized that Tchiani stopped a coup attempt in 2021. The constitution has been suspended with no time frame for it being brought back. Other measures have been taken which include curfews and closing the border of Niger. Power transition and democratic government have not been successful in Niger. This is the fifth coup in Niger's history. These coups occurred in 1974, 1996, 1999, and 2010. The biggest source of Niger's challenges are ISIS and foreign influence in the country. The Sahel has seen a dramatic rise in terrorism and various insurgencies. Groups such as Al Murabitoun, Ansar Dine, Katibat Macina, and Boko Haram are local to the Sahel. The Islamic State of West Africa, Islamic State of the Greater  Sahara , and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb have influence from other countries outside the African continent. These groups fight across borders.   Abdourahamane Tchiani stated the reason for the coup was that President Mohamed Bazoum was unable to keep Niger secure. It is uncertain that the military regimes will do any better at fighting rebel groups or terrorist organizations. The excuse of fighting terrorists and insurgents could used to create more authoritarian political structures. Niger could become isolated if the majority of the continent still recognizes Mohamed Bazoum as head of state.  

The State of Thai-Burmese Relations

 

The military regime in Myanmar has caused a change in relations with Thailand. The influx of refugees in Thailand has also impacted domestic politics of Thailand. Both countries are under the influence of the military having involvement in political affairs. Thailand had a military coup in 2014 and Myanmar's democratically elected government was deposed in 2021. While Thailand did have elections, the military influence was still present. What happens in Thailand's elections will have an effect on Myanmar. The policy is to support the military regime of Min Aung Hlaing. Both governments are dependent on one another for survival. The case with Thailand is that political opposition has more freedom, but is not effective enough to make dramatic change. The Thai monarchy holds respect among the population and acts as a unifying force in the country. A military regime in Thailand would never try to abolish it, but for the most part it is ceremonial. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha realizes that the junta in Myanmar secures his position in Thailand. As Myanmar slides further into a state of civil war, the possibility of Thai intervention becomes greater. Thailand might not want more refugees to come into their country. Thailand's Myanmar policy increases tension with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Myanmar and Thailand could become isolated in their own region due to certain actions taken domestically and beyond their borders. Depending on what government is in power in Thailand, the Min Aung Hlaing regime has a close ally.  

Sudanese Refugees Flee To Chad, Egypt, and Kenya

 

The conflict in Sudan has created refugees. Simultaneously, Darfur has seen an escalation resulting in large numbers of Sudanese escaping to Chad. Other destinations of refugees are Egypt and Kenya. The fight between the RSF and the Sudanese Military will spread across borders. The outbreaks of ethnic violence and war have been seen in Ethiopia. That came to a peaceful resolution without balkanization. Sudan appears to be tearing itself apart. Darfur has been a challenge since 2003. South Sudan gained independence in 2011, but had internal confrontation. The power void left by the Omar Al-Bashir regime was followed by a series of coups. The civilians are caught in the middle of warring armed factions. The United Nations has not made serious proposals for peace. Sudanese might face a more difficult time in Egypt. The border dispute between Egypt and Sudan could be exacerbated by the status of the conflict. Sudanese in Egypt could become scapegoats or subject to xenophobic sentiment. Egypt does not provide shelters or camps for refugees. Racial prejudice against the 4 million Sudanese migrants can no longer be hidden. The added incoming refugees will be used as a distraction from economic concerns of the nation. Kenya does have refugee camps, however conditions are poor. The camps in Kenya also have refugees from Somalia and South Sudan. Crowding and public health concerns make life difficult for refugees. Kenya could respond by either shutting its borders or getting involved in Sudan. The approach that Kenya took in Somalia should not be replicated in Sudan. The only solution would be an African Union effort to develop a peace settlement. If this does not happen refugees will continue to come to Kenya, Chad, and Egypt.  

The Rapid Support Forces Revolt In Sudan

 

Sudan could be slipping into a state of civil war. The Rapid Support Forces have been engaged in combat with the Sudanese Army. Reports of fighting have been  documented throughout Sudan. Khartoum. Demonstrations against the Abdel Fattah al-Burhan regime continue. Sudan has remained unstable since the fall of the Omar al-Bashir government. The former regime is culpable for the conditions that currently exist. Sudan formed the Janjaweed militias to fight in Darfur. The region wanted to break off from Sudan. Those militias would form the RSF in 2013. The RSF was used for border security and fighting abroad. The RSF has participated in the war in Yemen. As the 2010s passed the security force became more powerful. The same force that Omar al-Bashir built up went on to participate in a coup against him. The RSF would also participate in the 2021 coup. Calls for their integration into the Sudanese military have been proposed. The paramilitary force would lose power if it were to do so. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo commander of the RSF could be seeking to take control of government. The military and paramilitary  forces have more power than Sudanese citizens. Those who want to see democratic and civilian rule continue to struggle. Another Sudanese Civil War will spread into neighboring countries. Libya, Chad, Ethiopia, the African Central Republic,  Egypt,  and Eritrea could be effected. The RSF poses the most formidable threat to  al-Burhan's rule. So far, the RSF rebellion has not escalated to the extent of being classified as a civil war. Much of that depends on the total strength of the RSF. 

Paul Henri Damiba Deposed

 

Burkina Faso is becoming more unstable. Another coup has occurred, which forced Paul Henri Damiba to resign. Clinging to power would mean civil war. This is something Burkina Faso cannot withstand seeing as their is an insurgency. The armed groups are thought to be terrorist organizations. These forces are active in the north and east of Burkina Faso. Mediation efforts are underway to form a new government. The military will still have all of the power with Ibrahim Traore as head of state. The constitution remains suspended. If the constitution remains suspended, then there is no legal means of challenging the military regime. The transitional government no longer exists. By now, most observers can see that the military will be in power for sometime. The French embassy was attacked by protesters thinking they were giving aid to Damiba. France also has a military base in Burkina Faso. He was only in power for eight months and there is little information about his European connections. The coup appears to be an internal matter, not a foreign operation of regime change. The likely tools of regime change are armed groups that are associated with ISIS or al-Qaeda. A country going through a series of leaders shows a lack of stability. The lack of security and activity of terrorist organizations only gives the military regime justification for anti-democratic measures. Condemnation from the African Union and ECOWAS has not changed Burkina Faso's policy positions. Part of the agreement of Damiba's departure was that he will not be charged with crimes against the state.    

A Coup In Burkina Faso

 

Burkina Faso has fallen to a military coup. This is part of a political trend happening across the continent . This is not the first time the country has experienced military takeover or attempts. An attempted coup happened in 2015. The leader of the takeover is Paul Henri Damiba . Gunfights had taken place in the capital of Ouagadougu. Monday it was reported the military was removing the civilian government. The group of soldiers are part of a political  organization  known as the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration. Burkina Faso faces challenges from terrorism, French interference, and ineffective government. President Kabore who was deposed in the coup failed to address the issues regarding the anti- government protests. Since 2014 Burkina Faso has struggled to be stable after the fall of Blaise Compaore. Roch Kabore was elected president in 2015. He did not make changes required to have a stable political atmosphere. Frustration grew among the citizens and the military. Now the parliament and constitution are dissolved.