The Political Activities of Former DRC President Joseph Kabila

 

Former DRC president Joseph Kabila is back in the country after two years. Returning to the city of Goma, accusations were made he had links to the M23 rebels. Leading the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2001 to 2019, his influence is still felt. The Second Congolese Civil War caused massive devastation to the region and DRC. The end of Kabila's immunity indicates a political motivation. Joseph Kabila might be calculating a return to the presidency. President Felix Tshisekedi has expressed the desire for the Constitutional Commission to change the term limits. If presidential term limits were to be extended that means Kabila could run again. This explains why the People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy is facing suppression. New charges were placed on Joseph Kabila accusing him of war crimes and treason. At this time, there is not enough evidence for trial. The restrictions on the PPRD Party are in the public's view an example of anti-democratic action. Joseph Kabila has claimed he wants to have a settlement with the M23 rebels. It was announced that Rwanda and the DRC would procure a peace agreement. Fears are mounting that it will not hold. If any peace settlement is to be successful it will require the active participation Uganda. Both Uganda and Rwanda have been involved in the DRC's internal affairs going back to 1998. Joseph Kabila has the experience dealing with President Paul Kagame and President Yoweri Museveni. The assassination of his father and the former president Laurent-Desire Kabila, made Joseph understand the dangers the DRC was in from its neighbors. The ban on the PPRD Party and  the end of Joseph Kabila's immunity will only increase his popularity. Political persecution turns public figures into icons of resistance. While Kabila still has enemies made in the 2000s, he could  be developing a wider political movement. 

The Kenyan Gen Z Demonstrations

 

Kenyan youth are going to demonstrations to voice their frustration with the government. The source of contention related to police brutality, increases in taxes, and dissatisfaction with President William Ruto. The demonstrations are spreading throughout Kenya. Much of the discontent is also expressed on social media platforms. Not only is it used as an organizing tool, but increasing awareness of issues in Kenyan politics. Generation Z is feeling the strain of economic hardship. The youth are experiencing a high rate of unemployment in Kenya. Combined with the increase in the cost of living, this added to the  discord. President William Ruto is becoming the main focus, not just the government in general. Growing protests show that his administration is in a precarious position. The finance bill has sparked public rage that will not be placated. What Kenya needs is to expand sectors of the economy and increase the quality of education. Getting assistance from the African Union and securing trade agreements with multiple countries can be long term solutions. Law enforcement needs complete reform. The use of tear gas, water cannons, and in some cases live ammunition are clear violations of human rights. The Gen Z protests would not happen if the youth knew change could happen with their vote. The behavior of the police is a unsettling reminder of the colonial past. Considering the influence of the IMF some believe it never disappeared. President William Ruto is now being accused of authoritarian rule. The press is also under pressure in Kenya. Kenya major media networks KNT and NTV are under certain restrictions. Internet services were deliberately slowed down. More restrictions are going to motivate the youth to continue demonstrations. The Gen Z movement could be a turning point in Kenya's political system. 

Ghana and Morocco Visa Agreement

 

Ghana and Morocco have reached an agreement related to visas. Citizens of Ghana can now travel to the North African country without visa requirements. Online travel authorization will still be required. Applying through the embassy is no longer necessary. Ghana and Morocco already have direct flights. The reasons for the agreements related to tourism, trade, and enhancing diplomatic relations . Tourism is a major part of the economies of both nations. Travelers can mean more business for hotels, restaurants, and airlines. Trade among African nations needs to be increased. Europe and North America are becoming unreliable trade partners. Inter-African trade provides stable economies and growth. Diplomatic relations can be positive, if members of an agreement benefit equally. What could disturb diplomatic relations is Morocco's actions in the Western Sahara. Ghana decided to not press the issue related to recognition of the Western Sahara as an independent state. The Kingdom of Morocco must seriously consider granting independence to the Western Sahara. The shift seems to be more autonomy to the area. Morocco's diplomatic efforts are undermined by unreasonable policies directed at the Western Sahara. Ghana is making adjustments not to interfere with the new diplomatic relationship. Ghana is supporting Morocco's Western Sahara autonomy plan. Ghana should expect that relations with Algeria could deteriorate over time. Ghana's only path forward is to act as a neutral negotiator. Getting Algeria and Morocco to secure trade and visa agreements would bet helpful to Ghana.      

The Ambiguous Condition In The Ivory Coast

 

Rumors of a military coup have come from Ivory Coast. So far, there is no evidence of an removal of the Alassane Ouattara presidency. Much of the unrest in the country comes from his desire to run for a fourth term. The Ouattara administration was the product of French invention in the Ivory Coast. The disputed election in 2010 saw the French install a government in the country. Pro-Ouattara forces arrested Laurent Gbagbo in 2011. Ivory Coast was experiencing post-election violence and what could be described as a civil war. Laurent Gbagbo was sent to Hague to be tried. It was clear this was political persecution disguised as fighting crimes against humanity. The charges were dismissed due to insufficient evidence. Egregious as this was, pro-Ouattara officials were never charged for banishing Gbagbo to the Hague. Gbagbo plans to run for president in 2025. There is a possibility that 2025 could be a repeat of 2010. The Economic Community of West African States are least likely to condemn Alassane Ouattara administration. ECOWAS is more aligned with EU political objectives, which explains its antagonism directed at the Alliance of Sahel States. Ivory Coast becomes more important to ECOWAS to counter Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The condition of Ivory Coast remains unclear, yet the coming months will see increasing political turbulence.  

Ukraine Seeks Diplomatic Ties With South Africa

President Volodymyr Zelensky came to South Africa to strengthen diplomatic ties. The conversations with South African Cyril Ramaphosa ranged from trade and the situation in Eastern  Europe. The trip was cut short by news of bombings of the Ukrainian  capital of  Kyiv. The visit was really not about bilateral relations. It was President Zelensky's attempt to undermine Russia's diplomatic status with South Africa. The BRICS members do not favor sanctions  on Russia or the growing anti-Russian sentiment within the European Union. Attempts have been made for peace settlements or possible ceasefire. All have been rejected. South Africa hosting the Ukrainian president seems odd considering the past treatment of Africans residing in Ukraine. African students faced discriminatory treatment when fleeing Ukraine in 2022. Africans in Ukraine constantly face forms of prejudice and discrimination. Ukrainian forces are active in parts of Africa according to some reports. Ukraine has sent special forces to Sudan and Mali. The reason Ukraine did this was to undermine the Wagner Group and Russia diplomatic missions in Africa. These instances of interference demonstrate that Ukraine is not an ally of African nations. The 2023 African Union peace delegation to Ukraine was rebuffed and subject to harsh treatment. President Zelensky was demanding that European countries continue to support the war effort. Seeing as arms  are  dissipating Ukraine is looking elsewhere. South Africa is under no obligation to help Ukraine or any other European state. After the 2023 AU peace deal proposal, it is obvious Ukraine does not value African council. The Russia-Ukraine War does work to the benefit of Africa. If the European Union keeps funding the conflict it will weaken the UK, France, and Germany. This means Europe will no longer be able to militarily intervene in Africa. Chances of Ukrainian victory are narrow and South Africa has little to gain from a war torn nation.  

 

Ibrahim Traore Seeks A New Path For Burkina Faso

 

Ibrahim Traore wants Burkina Faso to have a more dynamic and impactful role in African affairs. The young leader seems similar to Thomas Sankara. A Pan-Africanist revival could be underway. Countries such as Mali and Niger are also taking a different approach to foreign policy and the affairs of Africa. The Alliance of Sahel states was formed to counter ECOWAS. Simultaneously, measures have been taken to remove French military encroachment and fight terrorist organizations. The AES is the reaction to neocolonial imperialism and armed groups. Traore does have an anti-imperialist political position. However, his economic stances are not well known. Traore does see poverty and the exploitation of the nation as an injustice. Yet, he has never expressed any Marxist or socialist ideas. Burkina Faso now has a leader that is growing in popularity. The reason has to do with genuine change to the political system. The youth in particular desire new leadership. The majority of African leaders are much older. Ibrahim Traore is one of the youngest heads of state in the world. Burkina Faso is going to be the more significant partner in the Alliance of Sahel states. Leaving ECOWAS demonstrates a shift. Burkina Faso is asserting its national sovereignty and being more active in the West African  region. Burkina Faso could also be more involved in the African Union. Overtime, this revived Pan-African sentiment could spread to other parts of the continent.       

The Expulsion of Ebrahim Rasool and South Africa's Response

 

South African ambassador to the US Ebrahim Rasool was expelled from the United States. The reasons for the expulsion are motivated by economics, the intolerance of the Trump administration, and an attempt to undermine BRICS. There is speculation that Elon Musk is having indirect influence over US policy regarding South Africa. Musk an Afrikaner benefited from the Apartheid regime. The Trump administration has also offered white South Africans to come to America. These proposals are a projection of white nationalist sentiment. The attacks on South Africa are also intended to dissolve the BRICS alliance. Prior to the diplomatic dispute, President Donald Trump warned various nations about abandoning the US dollar. The emergent economies are going to see growth and this shifts the geopolitical power balance. The blatant racism was apparent seeing as it is rare this happens to a senior official. Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool was told he was no longer welcomed in the United States. When Rasool returned he was embraced by the South African Communist Party, ANC, and the South African public. The unprofessional conduct and discriminatory actions of the United States may have created more unity among South Africans. The government's response needs to be more forceful. Removal of US diplomats would be a proportional measure. If more criticisms about land reform come from the Trump administration, the ending of diplomatic ties should be considered. President Cyril Ramaphosa does have options, but if he does not act it will only harm South Africa's standing. Closing the embassy in the United States or imposing tariffs on American products are the more harsh  measures. South Africa could just request the US ambassador to leave. Regardless of what measure is taken, the expulsion of an ambassador for no reason demands retaliation.  

Mahamat Deby Consolidates Power In Chad

Chad held a  presidential election. The outcome was as most observers predicted with military ruler Mahamat Deby winning most of the vote. The legitimacy has been questioned by political opposition. Chad is transforming into a country of dynastic rule. Although a military regime it has similarities to Togo and Gabon. One family is going to rule Chad for a number of years. If Idriss Deby was not killed by rebels he would still be president. The rule of the Deby's began in 1990. Chad continues to be an ally of France. However, with the French exit from Mali and Niger a void will grow. Chad could become a more powerful regional player in the Sahel. President Mahamat Deby might establish closer diplomatic relations with Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali. A common enemy of rebel groups and terrorist organization would bring these countries together in an alliance. According to the results Mahamat won 61.3 % of the vote. The dispute was that the elections were not free or fair. African Union observers were not present. President Mahamat Deby does not have absolute control. He remains reliant on a ruling coalition. The military has immense influence over government. Algeria and Egypt also have this obstacle and at times coups occurred. If Mahamat maintains the support of the military his leadership will be secured. The 2022 crackdown forced some Chadians to flee abroad. Those suspected of involvement  in the assassination of Idriss Deby are among the Chadians that left. Most assume that foreign policy and internal matters will remain the same. Developments in Sudan and the relations with France will force a change in direction. Chad's transformation into a dynastic based system of government is the most noticeable.  

 

Concerns About Liberian President Joseph Boakai

 

Joseph Boakai's presidential inauguration was cur short. The president was suffering from heat stroke, which required his speech to be cut short. Opposition parties  have raised  the concern about President Boakai's age. At 79 years old, he is one of Liberia's oldest presidents. Older leaders are common on the African continent. The issue relates to energy and fitness for office. Health becomes a concern for a head of state and matters of succession must be taken into account. Adding an age limit for political office would be discriminatory. An age requirement to obtain office is as well. That does assumes that younger people are not ready to be leaders. At some point, the youth must be allowed to continue the work of governance. Yet, longtime establishment politicians refuse to retire. The inability to at least accept some change or reform makes most establishment political figures seem out of touch. Joseph Boakai has served as vice president, so he understands the Liberian political system. The question remains is whether or not he will do something different with his administration. A run off election was required for him to beat George Weah. This means that the country is still divided along particular political lines. The world is having a concern with aging leadership, which clings to power. Age might bring political experience, but it become apparent that older leaders are not open to new ideas. President Joseph Boakai has not proposed anything innovative. When the public votes for an older head of state health, worldview, and  openness to new ideas must be considered. 

Israel Proposes Moving Refugees From Gaza To The DRC

 

Israel's war on Gaza has created refugees. The government wants the Arab population in Gaza to be reduced, but the obstacle is that Egypt will not accept Palestinians fleeing war. According to the Times of Israel   the Netanyahu government was in talks to has Palestinians deported there. This came with the denial from the DRC. Rumors that Israel is in talks with Chad and Rwanda have not been confirmed. The only African countries that could take refugees are Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. Libya is too unstable to take any more people. Geographically, North Africa is closer and therefore a better option. If  the proposal is actually genuine it confirms that ethnic cleansing is Israeli policy. The attacks on refugee camps and forced removals are egregious human rights violations. The United Nations has not imposed sanctions, even though Israel has attacked their facilities in Gaza. Israel has met every definition of rouge state and still can commit war crimes. As the prospect of a wide regional war looms, refugee traffic will come to Europe. Europe was unable to cope with the refugee crisis from the Arab Spring. Another wave could more if Lebanon and Iran are involved. Most Palestinians do not want to leave their country. What Israel intends to do is destroy the two state solution and annex the land the would have been independent. When Gaza is absorbed, the West Bank will be next. The DRC should never accept any negotiations with Israel. To do so would be acting as an accomplice in criminal actions. The DRC struggles with armed groups and displaced people. Taking refugees would not be possible.     

Angola Leaves OPEC

 

Angola is set to leave OPEC. This is due to a dispute over oil production and the policies set for 2024. Angola does not want to cut production and wants to fulfill contracts as the reason for the exit from OPEC. How this could impact the global economy is unknown. Angola is one of the biggest oil exporters in Africa. The end of the 16 year membership will have an effect on Angola's economy. Other countries have left OPEC unable to come to a consensus. Oil prices have gone up due to the Russia-Ukraine War and Houti rebel attacks on ships in  the Red Sea. The intent of OPEC is to make a decision about how much crude oil should be sold on the world market. Angola wants to sell its oil without certain restrictions. The minister for mineral resources, gas, and petroleum Diamantino Azevedo expressed that being in OPEC did not advance Angola's interest. Angola did not meet its obligations of production quotas. Simultaneously, members might be getting frustrated with Saudi Arabian domination in the group. Angola has the potential to use it vast oil wealth for further development. This requires improvement to infrastructure and have oil traded in the Angolan Kwanza. The MPLA needs to get back to its democratic socialist ideology ensuring economic advancement for the majority of the population. Angola is a lower middle income country, but should have a higher GDP and GNP. Angola's diamonds, agricultural, and hydroelectric potential means it one day could be one of Africa's richest nations.  

Mali, Burkina Faso , And Niger Form An Alliance

 

A major change is coming to the Sahel region. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are forming a closer alliance. The new alliance will encompass both security and economic agreements. The security security for three countries remains a concern. Terrorist organizations, interference from France, and ECOWAS possibly doing military operations against these governments are the concerns. The Alliance of Sahel States is going into effect. The pact is designed to bring stability to a region in turmoil for 13 years. The Liptako-Gourma region  is where Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger's borders meet. The area has been a place in which multiple armed groups are active. The current condition in the Sahel was blowback from the Arab Spring in North Africa and NATO's attack on Libya. France used the disorder to further its influence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The alliance between these three nations is also going to be economic. A new currency is in the process of being developed  among military governments. The intent appears to be to break away from a currency connected to the euro. The West African CFA franc in use in the region is a symbol of dependency of France. The policies suggested are establishing a joint stabilization fund and creation of an investment bank. All three countries also want to further development efforts. The success of this new alliance depends on the leaders, proper coordination, and the defeat of external enemies. The new alliance has a potential to be a competitor to ECOWAS, if the new currency spreads through out the continent. 

Paul Biya's First Presidential Inauguration (1982)

 

Cameroon has one of the world's longest serving leaders. Paul Biya was  elected in 1982 and has remained president ever since. At the time he was seen as a reformer and a new wave of African leaders who wanted change in the political system. However, during the 1980s Biya was able to remove political rivals. Cameroon did not have a multi-party system until 1990. The opposition parties have claimed they are being harassed by the government. Allegations of electoral fraud have been made. Now the 90 year old head of state governs in a country and continent much different when Biya first entered government. It was 1964 when Paul Biya became director of the Cabinet of the minister of national education. The Constitution was revised to allow Paul Biya to run for president multiple times. The end of  presidential term limits caused public protests. Paul Biya would best be described as de-facto president for life. Frustration grows as the oil wealth has not been used to improve the standard of living in Cameroon. The outbreak of the Ambazonia War has caused more division in the country. Uncertainty remains about a post-Biya Cameroon. Cameroon might become like Togo, Chad, or formerly Gabon with dynastic succession.  

Paul Kagame Seeking A Fourth Term

 

President Paul Kagame is going to run for a fourth term. Doing this is no shock considering the 2015 constitutional amendment . For two decades Rwandan politics has been dominated by one president.  The difference now is the African continent has been turning against longtime leaders and those deemed as puppets of  the West. Gabon, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Sudan have seen leaders deposed. Rwanda has had the same president since the year 2000. The presidential terms are seven years. This means Paul Kagame could remain in office up until 2034. Some suspect that another constitutional amendment could be made in the coming years. The end of presidential term limits would mean Paul Kagame could be president for life. The Green Party seeks to defeat him at the polls, but the Rwandan Patriotic Party has a powerful grip on the political system. Frank Habineza is seeking to become Rwanda's next president. The invention in Mozambique, the Rwandan asylum plan, and the status of relations with Uganda are going to be pivotal topics in the election. There is considerable controversy about the Rwandan government's support for the M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of The Congo. The concern is that Ugandan and Rwandan involvement in the DRC could create a wider regional conflict. The DRC and Ugandan forces have fought the Allied Democratic Forces. Armed groups and longtime leaders are making the region more unstable. There is the fear of what  would happen with the end of  the Paul Kagame era. This explains why voters might support him, even with  growing diplomatic concerns and military engagements.  

Gabon's Government Says Ali Bongo Is Free From House Arrest

 

Ali Bongo according to the government is allowed to move freely. The president of Gabon prior to this released a video in which he asked for assistance. The video was not a political prisoner asking for help, rather an indirect message for military intervention. Ali Bongo assumed that France would come to restore him to office. France is the reason the Bongo family has remained in power for half a century. The government states that he was released on medical grounds. Ali Bongo is free to go abroad for medical check-ups. What it sounds like is that the government is encouraging exile. Some might have the desire to see the Bongo family prosecuted for crimes that took place for the past 55 years. The country is not entire free of the family. The current president Brice Nguema is a cousin of Bongo. This is the reason why Ali Bongo might not be charged or remain incarcerated. Ali Bongo does have health concerns considering he did suffer a stroke five years ago. The Nguema government does not want to be accused of trying to worsen Ali Bongo's health. The coup was a bloodless one and there is no desire to have a civil war. A trial might not happen. Enough evidence has to be gathered to expose wrong doing. While there is evidence of kleptocracy, Bongo loyalists might still have an influence on the criminal justice system. Ali Bongo could remain free and unpunished. The Bongos could face charges such as embezzlement, electoral fraud, and  human rights abuse. 

President Ali Bongo Ondimba Has Lost Power To The Military

 

Gabon has become another African country that deposed a longtime leader. President Ali Bongo Ondimba has been placed under house arrest by the military. This comes after a contentious election in which Ali Bongo was declared the winner. The Bongo Ondimba family has ruled Gabon since 1967. Omar Bongo, the father of the current president was supported by France and developed an authoritarian power structure. When Omar Bongo died in 2009, Ali Bongo became his successor. Debates remain about how free and fair elections have been since the Bongo Ondimba family have been in politics. A portion of Gabonese welcomed the coup, because it meant that a new form of government could come into existence. Voting was not going to remove the Bongos and  presidential term limits were never discussed. Protests against the government did happen in 2016. A coup attempt in 2019 was foiled. The military launched another coup in 2023 and so far it appears successful. Gabon has oil and mineral resources, but the Bongos failed to improve living standards of the Gabonese. France has interest in keeping a regime in power to extract these resources. The change in government certainly will get the attention of Cameroon , Equatorial Guinea, and the Republic of Congo. Paul Biya, Dennis Sassou Nguesso, and Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo could come to the realization their countries could be subject to military coups. A major political shift that started in 2020 is spreading across the African continent. Either the new regimes will revert to another form of authoritarianism or follow an alternative political path. Gabon now joins Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in the group of African countries under military rule.  

Niger Under Threat Of Military Intervention

 

The military coup in Niger has created a regional crisis. Now Niger faces threats of military intervention. ECOWAS stated that it will invade Niger if diplomatic efforts fail. At the moment a stand by force is being made ready for a military operation. This is not the first time ECOWAS invaded another state. Gambia was subject to invasion when President Yahya Jammeh refused to give up power. What this military operation would be is to restore President Mohamad Bazoum to office. France also seeks to strike Niger. America's longtime involvement in the country has been known. Interfering in the internal matters of another state will cause complications. A war in Niger will certainly cause challenges for Algeria, Libya. and Nigeria. Nigerians would not tolerate a occupying force in their country. ECOWAS cites that intervention in Liberia and Gambia was a success. However, Niger is a different situation. The African Union appears to prefer a diplomatic approach. Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Cape Verde might come to the aid of Niger. These countries have military governments and came to power around the late 2010s to 2020s. ECOWAS would not be fighting one country, but multiple West African states. Talks of intervention only make the military junta more popular in Niger. Since the treason charge of President Mohamad Bazoum, more international condemnation came. The United Nations and European Union  expressed concern about his condition. The motives of the major world powers are to have more influence in Africa and gain more of its natural resources. Fighting terrorism or restoring constitutional order are just excuses to invade. The Nigerians  should be the ones to determine who leads the country. Instead ECOWAS and France are going to decide that matter.  

Niger Has A Military Coup

 

Niger has fallen to a military coup. This is another case in a pattern seen in Mali, Guinea,  and Burkina Faso. Public discord, warfare, and regional instability has produced coups throughout the region. General  Abdourahamane Tchiani is now head of state. The African Union and ECOWAS  have  condemned the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum. Questions remain about the return to civilian leadership. The situation become more bizarre when it was relaized that Tchiani stopped a coup attempt in 2021. The constitution has been suspended with no time frame for it being brought back. Other measures have been taken which include curfews and closing the border of Niger. Power transition and democratic government have not been successful in Niger. This is the fifth coup in Niger's history. These coups occurred in 1974, 1996, 1999, and 2010. The biggest source of Niger's challenges are ISIS and foreign influence in the country. The Sahel has seen a dramatic rise in terrorism and various insurgencies. Groups such as Al Murabitoun, Ansar Dine, Katibat Macina, and Boko Haram are local to the Sahel. The Islamic State of West Africa, Islamic State of the Greater  Sahara , and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb have influence from other countries outside the African continent. These groups fight across borders.   Abdourahamane Tchiani stated the reason for the coup was that President Mohamed Bazoum was unable to keep Niger secure. It is uncertain that the military regimes will do any better at fighting rebel groups or terrorist organizations. The excuse of fighting terrorists and insurgents could used to create more authoritarian political structures. Niger could become isolated if the majority of the continent still recognizes Mohamed Bazoum as head of state.