The Ambiguous Condition In The Ivory Coast

 

Rumors of a military coup have come from Ivory Coast. So far, there is no evidence of an removal of the Alassane Ouattara presidency. Much of the unrest in the country comes from his desire to run for a fourth term. The Ouattara administration was the product of French invention in the Ivory Coast. The disputed election in 2010 saw the French install a government in the country. Pro-Ouattara forces arrested Laurent Gbagbo in 2011. Ivory Coast was experiencing post-election violence and what could be described as a civil war. Laurent Gbagbo was sent to Hague to be tried. It was clear this was political persecution disguised as fighting crimes against humanity. The charges were dismissed due to insufficient evidence. Egregious as this was, pro-Ouattara officials were never charged for banishing Gbagbo to the Hague. Gbagbo plans to run for president in 2025. There is a possibility that 2025 could be a repeat of 2010. The Economic Community of West African States are least likely to condemn Alassane Ouattara administration. ECOWAS is more aligned with EU political objectives, which explains its antagonism directed at the Alliance of Sahel States. Ivory Coast becomes more important to ECOWAS to counter Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The condition of Ivory Coast remains unclear, yet the coming months will see increasing political turbulence.  

Gabon's Government Says Ali Bongo Is Free From House Arrest

 

Ali Bongo according to the government is allowed to move freely. The president of Gabon prior to this released a video in which he asked for assistance. The video was not a political prisoner asking for help, rather an indirect message for military intervention. Ali Bongo assumed that France would come to restore him to office. France is the reason the Bongo family has remained in power for half a century. The government states that he was released on medical grounds. Ali Bongo is free to go abroad for medical check-ups. What it sounds like is that the government is encouraging exile. Some might have the desire to see the Bongo family prosecuted for crimes that took place for the past 55 years. The country is not entire free of the family. The current president Brice Nguema is a cousin of Bongo. This is the reason why Ali Bongo might not be charged or remain incarcerated. Ali Bongo does have health concerns considering he did suffer a stroke five years ago. The Nguema government does not want to be accused of trying to worsen Ali Bongo's health. The coup was a bloodless one and there is no desire to have a civil war. A trial might not happen. Enough evidence has to be gathered to expose wrong doing. While there is evidence of kleptocracy, Bongo loyalists might still have an influence on the criminal justice system. Ali Bongo could remain free and unpunished. The Bongos could face charges such as embezzlement, electoral fraud, and  human rights abuse. 

Niger Under Threat Of Military Intervention

 

The military coup in Niger has created a regional crisis. Now Niger faces threats of military intervention. ECOWAS stated that it will invade Niger if diplomatic efforts fail. At the moment a stand by force is being made ready for a military operation. This is not the first time ECOWAS invaded another state. Gambia was subject to invasion when President Yahya Jammeh refused to give up power. What this military operation would be is to restore President Mohamad Bazoum to office. France also seeks to strike Niger. America's longtime involvement in the country has been known. Interfering in the internal matters of another state will cause complications. A war in Niger will certainly cause challenges for Algeria, Libya. and Nigeria. Nigerians would not tolerate a occupying force in their country. ECOWAS cites that intervention in Liberia and Gambia was a success. However, Niger is a different situation. The African Union appears to prefer a diplomatic approach. Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Cape Verde might come to the aid of Niger. These countries have military governments and came to power around the late 2010s to 2020s. ECOWAS would not be fighting one country, but multiple West African states. Talks of intervention only make the military junta more popular in Niger. Since the treason charge of President Mohamad Bazoum, more international condemnation came. The United Nations and European Union  expressed concern about his condition. The motives of the major world powers are to have more influence in Africa and gain more of its natural resources. Fighting terrorism or restoring constitutional order are just excuses to invade. The Nigerians  should be the ones to determine who leads the country. Instead ECOWAS and France are going to decide that matter.  

Anti-Government Protests In Sierra Leone

 

The rising cost of living has brought people to protest in Sierra Leone. This resulted in a violent response from authorities. Freetown imposed a curfew. The price of food, gas, electricity, and various commodities  have pushed the country to the brink. Poverty has been a major concern. Some are calling for President Julius Maada Bio to resign. Yet, he insists that the protests were politically motivated. That argument does not explain the fact that inflation has not been addressed. The growth of economic inequality only causes discord and violence in a nation. Sierra Leone has been struggling to rebuild after a brutal civil war. The war lasted from 1991 to 2002, but the nation remains divided. ECOWAS has condemned the violence. This might prevent further escalation . ECOWAS did intervene in Gambia and that possibly could be another option for Sierra Leone. Economic improvements must be made before a civil war breaks out. If civil war does not happen, a possible military coup could happen. A combination of broken promises , lack of reconciliation, and economic decline  put Sierra Leone in this condition.