The Ambiguous Condition In The Ivory Coast

 

Rumors of a military coup have come from Ivory Coast. So far, there is no evidence of an removal of the Alassane Ouattara presidency. Much of the unrest in the country comes from his desire to run for a fourth term. The Ouattara administration was the product of French invention in the Ivory Coast. The disputed election in 2010 saw the French install a government in the country. Pro-Ouattara forces arrested Laurent Gbagbo in 2011. Ivory Coast was experiencing post-election violence and what could be described as a civil war. Laurent Gbagbo was sent to Hague to be tried. It was clear this was political persecution disguised as fighting crimes against humanity. The charges were dismissed due to insufficient evidence. Egregious as this was, pro-Ouattara officials were never charged for banishing Gbagbo to the Hague. Gbagbo plans to run for president in 2025. There is a possibility that 2025 could be a repeat of 2010. The Economic Community of West African States are least likely to condemn Alassane Ouattara administration. ECOWAS is more aligned with EU political objectives, which explains its antagonism directed at the Alliance of Sahel States. Ivory Coast becomes more important to ECOWAS to counter Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The condition of Ivory Coast remains unclear, yet the coming months will see increasing political turbulence.  

Laurent Gbagbo Return and The Irovry Coast

 

Laurent Gbagbo has returned to Ivory Coast. There is no indication if Gbagbo intends to be active in politics following ten  years out of the country . He was acquitted of criminal charges by the ICC. The legitimacy of the International Crimes Court has been called into question. A disproportionate  number of African leaders have been targeted by the ICC. European leaders rarely are subject to the ICC despite involvement in numerous wars in both Africa and Asia. President Alassane Outarra has held the presidency ever since 2011 and Gbagbo's return could be a political threat. Ivory Coast fell into violence following the disputed election in 2010. Fears grow that peaceful transfers of power could result in a long lasting civil war. During Gbagbo's presidency, there was war between the opposition. The French backed and UN forces captured Gbagbo in 2011 placing Outarra in power. The run off election did not bring an end to disputes. The narrative was that he lost the election and was clinging to power. The ICC case found no evidence that their was a plan to keep Gbagbo in power. Nor was there evidence of a plot to murder civilians. Gbagbo could still face prison in Ivory Coast. Such an action would cause more outrage in a country divided. 

Laurent Gbagbo My Return To Ivory Coast

Laurent Gbagbo who was arrested by France and transferred to the International Crimes Court may return to Ivory Coast. Last year he was acquitted when the ICC could not prove he was responsible for post-election violence. The French intervened to install a more compliant government. The blatant violation of sovereignty and the charges from the ICC prove ulterior motives. The ICC charges leaders who do not follow European geopolitical objectives. Gbagbo can leave Belgium on the condition that another nation receives him. Elections are going to be held in October. The question remains could post-election violence erupt again. If so, France would use that as a justification to intervene. The reason for travel restrictions on Gbagbo are not completely lifted is the fear he retain significant political popularity in Ivory Coast. A political comeback could reverse the French position in  the West African region that was built up since 2011. The ICC demonstrates its bias with few European leaders facing trial for abuses in African and Asian nations. Gbagbo's return could either have negative or positive consequences depending on the political conditions.