The Changes Coming To Eastern Europe

 

The Alaska Summit was held by President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The meeting did not produce any peace settlements or an end to violence. The speculation was that it was a discussion of partition of Ukraine. President Zelensky is set to meet with President Trump after the Alaska Summit.  The Russia-Ukraine War has changed Eastern Europe. Belarus is viewed with more hostility due to its alliance with the Russian Federation. The country has not sent any forces, but is subject to sanctions by the European Union. The rest of Eastern Europe is becoming more militarized. Poland does host US air defense systems and military bases. Even if a peace settlement is reached, US military bases will not be removed. Ukraine will lose territory and the western section under a US- European Union sphere of influence. Hungary being closer to the Russian Federation is seeing a decline in relations with the UK and Germany. The war is also causing changes in the Balkans and the Baltic. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are going to be given more arms. Kosovo is going to be pushed to be recognized to undermine Serbia.  NATO members in Europe are expected to increase spending to 5% of their GDP. The economic consequences are going to be negative for the citizens of the UK, Germany, France, and Italy. As taxation increases and social services are cut, public discord will grow. The demographic shift in Ukraine is going to effect the rest of Europe. Since 2022, Ukrainians have fled to avoid military service, violence, and seek safety. As more people die, the country is feeling the consequences of population decline. The Ukrainians that are refugees, might not decide to return. More refugees are going to come when the war is over. Sudden increases of refugee traffic from inside Europe will generate resentment. The loss of the Russia-Ukraine War will halt efforts at European integration. Eastern Europe is becoming divided between EU-NATO supporting countries and those that want diplomatic relations with Russia. 

Ukraine Seeks Diplomatic Ties With South Africa

President Volodymyr Zelensky came to South Africa to strengthen diplomatic ties. The conversations with South African Cyril Ramaphosa ranged from trade and the situation in Eastern  Europe. The trip was cut short by news of bombings of the Ukrainian  capital of  Kyiv. The visit was really not about bilateral relations. It was President Zelensky's attempt to undermine Russia's diplomatic status with South Africa. The BRICS members do not favor sanctions  on Russia or the growing anti-Russian sentiment within the European Union. Attempts have been made for peace settlements or possible ceasefire. All have been rejected. South Africa hosting the Ukrainian president seems odd considering the past treatment of Africans residing in Ukraine. African students faced discriminatory treatment when fleeing Ukraine in 2022. Africans in Ukraine constantly face forms of prejudice and discrimination. Ukrainian forces are active in parts of Africa according to some reports. Ukraine has sent special forces to Sudan and Mali. The reason Ukraine did this was to undermine the Wagner Group and Russia diplomatic missions in Africa. These instances of interference demonstrate that Ukraine is not an ally of African nations. The 2023 African Union peace delegation to Ukraine was rebuffed and subject to harsh treatment. President Zelensky was demanding that European countries continue to support the war effort. Seeing as arms  are  dissipating Ukraine is looking elsewhere. South Africa is under no obligation to help Ukraine or any other European state. After the 2023 AU peace deal proposal, it is obvious Ukraine does not value African council. The Russia-Ukraine War does work to the benefit of Africa. If the European Union keeps funding the conflict it will weaken the UK, France, and Germany. This means Europe will no longer be able to militarily intervene in Africa. Chances of Ukrainian victory are narrow and South Africa has little to gain from a war torn nation.  

 

The European Union Does Not Want Peace In Ukraine

 

The European Union does not want a peace settlement in Ukraine. Since the Russia-Ukraine War broke out military aid and arms have been given by EU members. As Ukraine's losses mount, the much obvious path would be to start negotiations. The motivation for the European Union to keep the war going is to change the political dynamics of Europe. For European liberals and conservatives the war is a crusade to reinvigorate western values. Europe is struggling with its identity and cohesion. The era of large empires and international dominance has been declining gradually. European integration has to be in this view forcibly imposed on Eastern Europe. The West and Eastern Europe differ by politics and culture. The Russian Federation has a more traditional culture and is more aligned with the Global South. The EU member states are oriented to liberal democratic values with globalist sentiments. Conflict in Eastern Europe can be a gateway for forcing European integration on countries that do not favor it. The European Union insisted that the current was was unprovoked, when it was the 2014 coup that resulted in a series of unfortunate events. The Russian Federation either being weakened or dismantled would mean Europe would not have to be reliant on the country for energy. While it is apparent that Ukraine is not going to win the war, EU states do not want it to stop. France suggested sending some its own soldiers to Ukraine. Chances of a ceasefire are out of reach, even though President Putin would be open to an arrangement. President Zelensky does not believe the offer is genuine. The concern now is that the EU member states could send troops to Ukraine. Such a decision could spark a large European war.  

Ukraine Rejects Peace Proposals

 

Ukraine has rejected peace proposals. The reason relates to the fact that Russia occupies the eastern section of the country. Ukraine is divided not only politically, but on an ethnic basis. Ukrainians at this stage might not be willing to accept their ethnic Russian neighbors. The support for the Russian Federation is present in areas with more Russian speakers. President Zelensky does not want to negotiate without getting the territories lost back. The Ukrainian military is not strong enough to do so without aid or direct assistance from other European powers. There is no pathway for Ukraine to win or expel Russia. The Trump administration claimed it would have some form of agreement. The problem is that with no INF Treaty, nuclearization of Eastern Europe will continue. The Biden administration refused to acknowledge that the conflict was a war of proxy. The intent was to weaken the Russian Federation using Ukraine as a trap. The situation is different from the Soviet-Afghan War during the 1980s. Ukraine has become a victim of US geopolitical designs. Demands are being made by the US for Ukraine to agree to a mineral deal. Ukraine has lithium, titanium, and uranium deposits. Natural resources explains the US interference in Ukraine. Russia wants to halt NATO expansion and promote Slavic nationalism in Eastern Europe. The war could be coming to a close, but the aftermath will have devasting consequences. Ukraine is not going to escape the debt from the billions borrowed from EU nations. The US is going to more control over Ukraine's economic affairs. A peace proposal could save the government. President  Volodymyr Zelensky could either be removed by Russians or deposed by his own people. Cancelling elections demonstrates that he knows his support has waned or that he wants to remain in power indefinitely. A peace settlement is the only rational choice to bring Europe back to stability.      

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict And The Use of ATACMS

 

Ukraine has been supplied with MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems. Ukraine has attacked inside Russian territory and now it is being with more weapons. The use of ATACMS proves that the conflict in Eastern Europe is a proxy war between NATO and the Russian Federation. Ukraine's chances of winning the conflict have decreased. Recapturing the Donbas and Crimea are out of reach. The Biden administration supplying ATACMS is another escalation in the Russia-Ukraine War. The Russian Federation asserted the conflict was a special military operation, but it is apparent NATO wants to be aggressive with the Russian Federation. There is little hope that with an incoming Trump administration that a peace settlement will be obtained. The European Union is thus left to figure out how to manage an energy crisis and a new wave of Ukrainian refugees. President Biden's supply of ATACMS is an attempt to reverse Ukraine's military failures. The conditions have worsened with the US embassy being shut. The Russian Federation could retaliate with massive airstrikes. Some European leaders are realizing that arming Ukraine is causing more destabilization of Europe. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed he will not supply Taurus long range missiles to the conflict. This is not so much for peace, but due to the fact an election is approaching in Germany. Chancellor Scholz has spoken with President Vladimir Putin. This was the first time since December of 2022. There is no indication in the hour long phone call that a peace settlement was discussed. Germany might be more interested in continuing its economic partnership with the Russian Federation. The recent shipment of arms from the UK and US are not going to produce  the military defeat of the Russian Federation. It has been speculated that some want the war to continue for the sake of the arms industry. Lockheed Martin is that main producer of ATACMS. The Russia-Ukraine War provides a market for various weapons.  

North Korean Involvement in The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Reports have been circulating that North Korea has sent Russia troops to Ukraine. Russia and North Korea have become more close over the years. Despite the fact Russia abandoned communism in 1991, North Korea sees the Russia alliance as critical. North Korea has been forced into isolation through sanctions and the United Nations. Video was also posted showing North Korean soldiers putting on gear with Russian soldiers. The North Korean forces are allegedly active in Kursk. Ukraine launched attacks inside of Russia. As the proxy war expands, more countries will get involved. North Korea's motivation could be a way to prevent future attacks by NATO. North Korea could be subject to a NATO intervention. Another motive is to get access to Ukraine's wheat. North Korea struggles with food security. Getting access to Ukrainian wheat could solve this problem. South Korea might react by supporting Ukraine with troops. North Korea and South Korea have been in a state of war since the Cold War. That would mean the tension on the Korean peninsula would spill over into Eastern Europe. NATO and South Korea have given conflicting numbers about the total number of North Korean forces. South Korea has stated it could be a total of 12,000 North Korean forces. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte put the number at 10,000. The numbers might be exaggerated for other reasons. It might be used as a justification for EU countries to attack North Korea. North Korea entering the war does not change the status in Eastern Europe. The Russian Federation is getting closer to winning the conflict. North Korea most likely is acting as a substitute for Belarus. Belarus did not send its forces to Ukraine. North Korea possibly going there as minor auxiliary support.   

The ICC Pressures Mongolia On President Vladimir Putin's Visit

 

Mongolia hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mongolia is an ICC member, but refused to arrest him. The warrant for his arrest was issued in 2023. The International Criminal Court has been criticized for being biased in charges and undermining national sovereignty of various countries. Mongolia wants to expand economic ties. This visit was not an endorsement of the Russia-Ukraine War. Most Asian and African nations want a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The EU nations continue to send arms. The ICC pressure on Mongolia just undermines the Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh presidency. Not arresting President Putin shows that Mongolia has an independent foreign policy. Mongolia does not exist to serve the ICC or European Union. If there is to be a system of international law, it should be applied to all nations. The International Criminal Court targets African and Asian leaders, while European leaders are exempt. Russia is at the moment, the only European country subject to the ICC  warrant. It has nothing to do with abuses in Ukraine, but to get access to Russian energy. A collapsed Russian Federation would mean certain natural resources could be obtained. President  Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh might have to reevaluate Mongolia being an ICC member. Forcing other leaders to arrest heads of state could cause legal and political complications.  

Viktor Orban Urges Ceasefire In The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban travelled to Ukraine to promote a ceasefire. Prime Minister Oban has not visited Ukraine since the conflict broke out in 2022. There have been attempts to make peace, but all have failed. President Volodymyr Zelensky has constantly asked for more aid from the European Union. One topic that was mentioned in the meeting was the ethnic Hungarians that reside in Ukraine. Tension exists with the Roma and ethnic Russian population. The discussion was related to the rights of the 100,000 Hungarians. Other bilateral matters were mentioned. After visiting Ukraine, Prime Minister Orban went to the Russian Federation. This did draw criticism from some EU countries, but seeking peace or an end to the war should not be condemned. Talking with President Vladimir Putin would help deescalate tensions. There is a possibility that these meetings will not produce any results. Hungary's motivations are not all altruistic. Seeking a ceasefire may be a means of preemptively stopping the chance of Ukrainian  refugees entering Hungary. Prime Minister Orban does not favor immigration to his country. When the war ends,  other EU nations are going to seek more influence in Ukraine. Hungary might be seeking to invest in Ukraine. Details and motivations remain unclear. If Viktor Orban was able to obtain a peace settlement that would elevate Hungary's diplomatic status. 

How The Russia-Ukraine War Ends

 The Russia-Ukraine War broke out in 2022. This was an extension of the internal civil war which continued to escalate. The destabilization of Eastern Europe was not an accident. The failure to adhere to the Minsk Accords enabled a bigger war and the opportunity to add more NATO members. Sweden and Finland are on the way to being new partners. Neoconservatives thought the Russian Federation would be weakened by a conflict on its border. The long term objective was to balkanize the country and make it lose its diplomatic connections to other countries. As the war progressed the delusional belief was that Ukraine could cause a major Russian defeat. Ukraine does not have the capability to defeat Russia. The US, UK, France, and Germany tried to convince the public that Russian defeat was inevitable. Observers of military affairs understood that this was not realistic. More weapons and funds are sent to Ukraine despite defeats and stalemates. Unless all of Europe goes to war with US assistance, the outcome will not be what the West intended. France has implied that it might be willing to send forces to Ukraine. The energy crisis and economic challenges has made the European public disgruntled. The public would be unwilling to fight a war for the sake of a neo-colonial imperial goal. Sending NATO forces in Ukraine would drag the United States further into the conflict. NATO forces have been reported to be stationed at the Ukrainian embassy. It is unclear the number of foreign forces inside Ukraine as of 2024. Ukraine is going to be defeated. When that happens depends on various factors. Wars could last for months or go on for years. The Russian intervention at some point will end. How the war ends can result in a number of outcomes. The Russian Federation could absorb all of Ukraine. Russia either retreats in the face of a combined US-NATO invasion. The more likely result is a peace settlement and the boundaries of Eastern Europe remain the same. 

       When Russia invaded the narrative was a  war of conquest. Russia invaded to support the militias fighting in the Donbass. The failure of  the second Minsk Accord cause the resumption of the civil war. If the 2014 coup never occurred, there would not have been a Russian military intervention. The narrative is that Russia is recreating the Soviet Union. Such an analysis does not take into account geopolitical realities. If the Soviet Union was to be revived Central Asia would have to be incorporated first. The region has more natural resources in comparison to Eastern Europe and the Baltic. The Russian Federation has no intention of restoring a one party communist state. Russia has embraced neoliberal capitalism. The dominance of the oligarchs shows the devasting effects of corporate avarice  and economic shock therapy from the 1990s. The narrative of a Soviet Union revival is more of historical fiction. Others active in geopolitical circles claim that  President Vladimir Putin aims to revive  the Russian Empire. To revive a Russian Empire, China would have to be neutralized. The People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation are moving toward an official military alliance. These actions do not indicate a revival  of  the Soviet Union and Russian Empire. Ukraine would not be a starting  point to build a Eurasian empire. Based on the events in 2023, Russia's goal was not to incorporate Ukraine. The long term objective is to halt NATO expansion getting closer to its borders. 

Russia is not attempting to force Ukraine into its territory. NATO secretary general Jen Stolenberg  admitted the war is not about saving Ukraine. Rather the Russia-Ukraine War was to justify expanding the military alliance. Stolenberg stated " the background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty  that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO entanglement." Russia is not invading Western Europe. NATO is becoming a more aggressive presence not only in Europe, but around the globe. This explains why Russia continues to support Belarus to counter Ukraine. The reason President Alexander Lukashenko allowed Russian forces stationed in the country. Belarus could be a target of NATO in the future. The alliance with Russia is designed to prevent a foreign military intervention . Whatever conquest would happen would be irridentist absorption of ethnic Russian population. Russia is not using Ukraine as launching center to invade all of Europe. 

      The most concerning outcome is a NATO war. This NATO war would involve all members to fight in Ukraine. The precarious nature  of this is possible nuclear war. A NATO-Russia war would involve the United States. Both the Russian Federation and the United States of America have massive nuclear arsenals. Russia does not want article 5 to be invoked. Without the INF Treaty there is no precautionary measures. A NATO-Russia war would either be Germany, France, and the UK sending soldiers to Ukraine. As Russia gets closer to Kiev they would be sent to prevent Ukraine's collapse. What neoconservatives hoped was that the Russia-Ukraine War would induce a Russian fall. The Russian-Ukraine War would then morph into a conflict into a balkanization. If Russia's defeat in Ukraine was immensely devastating it could create  a situation similar to the 1991 U.S.S.R collapse or the break-up of Yugoslavia. The Russian Federation would be divided into multiple successor states. Ukraine is not going to be able to push Russia back. The Russian Federation's economy and armed forces are too stable to induce dissolution. However, a US-NATO invasion could cause the Russian Federation to collapse. If such a war to take place there would be nuclear engagement. The end of the INF Treaty makes the situation extremely precarious. The conflict would be on the scale of a world war and possibly merge existing conflicts. A NATO war if Russia lost would mean it would break into a number of fragments. European Russia would be separated from Asian Siberia. NATO after a massive war would occupy the new polities. While the Ukrainian Civil War morphed into a Ukraine-Russia confrontation, turning into a Russia-NATO is not likely. The US, France, and the UK find it easier to keep the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a war of proxy. Financing, production of arms, and public support are going to be strained. The "stand with Ukraine" public relations effort cannot survive when people must be drafted, taxes have to be increased, and inflation from the energy crisis remain obstructions. Destabilizing the whole Eurasian landmass contains too many complications. Neoconservatives as another alternative geostrategy could seek to just reduce Russian national power. A weak Russian Federation means there is no opposition to the US-European Union bloc. A US-NATO invasion of Russian will not happen due to the difficulties of sustaining combat operations. 

       A peace settlement is possible. Russia prior to the conflict wanted to have a discussion with the United States about security guarantees. President Vladmir Putin discussed being open to dialogue. The announcement was given at his presidential inauguration. A number of towns and villages  are falling to Russian forces.  The northeast is witnessing an offensive. Simultaneously, Ukrainian soldiers are deserting and  filling positions become more difficult. Ukrainian refugees that are in other parts of Europe have no intention of  returning.  Ukraine has sent drones into Russia. These have had no effect because they are not hitting military targets. Russian citizens are at risk, but it has killed very few. Acts of terrorism will not change the events happening in the eastern  or the northeastern front. The invasion has evolved into a war of attrition. Despite all the arms to Ukraine, expulsion of Russian forces is not achievable. The Russian Federation will be closer to Kiev and capture it. Assuming the fighting continues with  guerilla warfare  tactics  or armed resistance, it will be over. The Russian offensive has caused 1,700 Ukrainians to flee. Civilians are not as likely to remain and take up arms. Ukraine's military attempted an counteroffensive in 2023. The June operation did not produce a tactical victory or shorten the war. Ukraine's military has deteriorated from a war of attrition. Under this pressure either the government or military will collapse. Ukraine might  request a peace settlement to avoid further deaths. President Volodymyr Zelensky was thinking about discussing peace with Russia, until Prime Minister  Boris Johnson convinced him not to. Seeing as the path to victory is narrow, Russians will probably dictate most of the peace terms. Removing President Zelensky is not going to be part of  a peace treaty. If Russia wanted they could have assassinated him by an airstrike. The reason they do not do this is because the more far-right extremists would takeover. A recreation of 2014 would mean another cycle of attacks and ethnic cleansing in the Donbas. The agreement would dictate that Ukraine has a neutral status or does not become a member of NATO. Either the Donbas becomes independent or seeks to join the Russian Federation through referendum. Russia's ownership of Crimea must be recognized under the peace agreement. These are the possible terms that Ukraine would have to accept after defeat. The map of Europe is not going to drastically change. Based on the Russo-Georgian  War in 2008, Ukraine does not have to fear losing its independence. Georgia lost some territory, but was not incorporated into Russia. Ukraine could lose Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia. Those two provinces may even try to become their own states. Ukraine would object to this, but have no choice to acknowledge the peace terms.

     Peace should be the preferred outcome. Even if established, Eastern Europe will not be the same. Ukraine during the civil war and the Russia-Ukraine War has become more authoritarian. President Volodymyr  Zelensky has postponed elections even though his term is set to expire. He might cling to power using a state of emergency justification. Just because the war comes to an end does not mean rights will be respected. Ukraine at the moment is not a member of NATO. Instead it will be further militarized by the European Union. More tanks, planes, and guns are going to sent to Ukraine, because the arms industry sees it as an investment. Ukraine has amassed large debt from the war. The countries that provided financial assistance are not going to allow debt cancellation. Ukraine will be at the mercy of the UK. France, Germany, and the United States. Russia's influence is not undermining Ukraine's sovereignty; the West is. The Ukraine project in terms of military goals  has been a failure. Russia did not fall or become weaker. To avoid condemnation, the narrative is being adjusted. The escalation of the war is going to be presented as a preemptive measure. The West halted Russian expansion into Europe. The dishonest assertion ignores the fact that the catalyst was adding more NATO members. NATO is not seeking a defensive strategy, rather an anti-Russian military alliance. Any country that has armed forces coming closer to its borders will react. The mistake of the Russian Federation was being provoked into intervention in the Ukrainian Civil War. The war of proxy that is occurring might not produce the results belligerents desire. The war caused more countries to join NATO. The United States has not been able to destabilize or produce regime change in Russia. When peace does come the relations between countries shall be altered. Ukraine and Belarus are going to have worse diplomatic relations. Russia is going to invest more in building Belarus militarily as a counter to Ukraine. A peace treaty can be made, but this will not shield the region from the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War. Refugees, damaged infrastructure, and far-right extremist violence are going to be persistent issues.               

The Status The Wagner Group

 

Through out the world a number of mercenary groups are active. The Wagner Group has become notable since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin has created questions about the Wagner Group's status. Accusations have been made that President Putin wanted him eliminated, but there is no evidence of this. Prior to his death, there was an attempt at a Wagner Group coup. A settlement was reached that was proposed by President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus. The forces would remain in his country and Yevgeny Prigozhin would be pardoned. The likely candidates for the assassination  could be Ukraine, Poland, or one of the Baltic states. An investigation has not been conducted so this remains mere conjecture. What the Russian government did determine was that Prigozhin did die in a plane crash.  The Wagner Group was not only active in Eastern Europe. Africa is another place of operation for the mercenary group. The Wagner Group has been active since 2014 and remains independent of the Russian government. The organization itself is listed in Russia as a private military company. Under Russian law mercenary groups are illegal. The Wagner Group has similarities to Black Water. The distinction between private military company and mercenary becomes blurred considering the majority are operating in war zones. The Wagner Group could either be disbanded or put into exile in Belarus. It seems unlikely that President Putin would arrest all members of the Wagner Group. Operations in  Mali, the Central African Republic, Sudan, and Libya are still active. The Wagner Group is being used by some leaders to fight terrorist organizations and armed insurgencies. The reward from this are gold mining contracts which generates wealth for the company. One option for the Wagner Group is to merge with the Russian military. Unless there is some crackdown on the Wagner Group, it will continue to function. The death of    Yevgeny Prigozhin creates a high level of tension and uncertainty. The Russian Federation might be more cautious in regards to the use of mercenaries and private military companies. 

Rising Tension Between Poland And Belarus

 

Belarus and Poland are seeing a decline in diplomatic relations. Poland has stated that Belarus sent military helicopters into its air space. Now rumors are circulating that there is a possibility of a military strike. Belarus has not engaged in the war in Ukraine. The country has allowed Russian troops to be stationed in its territory. However, no Belarusians have fought in the conflict, Fears have grown that Belarus will either be pulled into the conflict by NATO or forced to do so by the Russian Federation. Ever since the Wagner Group incident, the mercenary organization has remained in Belarus. NATO has accused it of attempting to threaten member states by using Belarus as a base. The air space incident probably was not intentional. Minsk did alert Warsaw about a military exercise they were conducting. If there was a plan of a war, a nation would not make its plans known to a foreign government. It has been known that Poland has attempted to instigate conflict with Belarus. Much of the tension focuses on the Suwalki gap. This border has much strategic significance to Russia, Belarus, and the EU. The vital link to Kaliningrad is an area the Russian Federation does not want to lose. If Belarus was invaded by NATO that would put Russia in a precarious situation. The Poland and Belarus tension is the direct result of NATO adding members such as Finland as well as Sweden. The counter by being active in the Suwalki gap would be to cut off the Baltic states from other NATO members. Poland is having diplomatic disputes with Ukraine. Their is frustration from Poland when it comes to assisting Ukraine in grain export. Poland has provided aid to Ukraine, but a sentiment exists that Ukraine has not been appreciative for the help. Belarus would not attack Poland due to Article Five. Belarus would then have to fight the majority of European countries. Poland has an investment in attacking Belarus. The view is that it is not its own country, but a Russian extension. If that were the case Belarus would have been more active in Ukraine. The decline in Polish-Belarusian relations reveals the rapid destabilization of Eastern Europe.   

President Zelensky Wants To Halt Elections

 

The crackdown on internal dissent continues in Ukraine. President Volodymtr Zelensky wants to have elections halted. This includes the parliamentary elections and the presidential elections scheduled for next year. So far no EU country has made a statement about the plan. President Zelensky justifies the action saying conditions are not stable for elections. He explained further as long as martial law is in place the decision will remain. Ukrainians should have a right to select their leaders . These actions show the development of an authoritarian political structure. The warning signs first came with the attacks on the press. As the Russia-Ukraine War continues the chances of a Ukrainian victory become less possible. The counteroffensive has not push Russia back to its borders. The Wagner Group incident did not spark a massive rebellion or coup. The events in Bakmut show that using mercenaries creates complications in warfare. President Zelensky stated that what he is doing is within the parameters of the Ukrainian constitution. The political opposition might have a legal argument to challenge halting elections. What some observe is this is a way for President Zelensky to remain in power. Winning an election would be difficult considering the military defeats. The UK, France, and Germany are going to support Zelensky no matter how anti-democratic the administration gets. For those countries causing a Russian defeat is more important than the welfare of Ukrainians. Peace talks become more out of reach with every passing month. If elections are not held this marks the start of an authoritarian regime. The silence of the European Union exposes the contradictory and corrupt nature of their foreign policy.   

The Russian Anti-War Protests

 

Since 2022 there have been anti-war protests in Russia. The protesters disagree with President Putin's invasion of Ukraine and NATO instigation. The press in the UK, US, France, and Germany does not acknowledge the anti-war movement in Russia. Anti-war activists globally have not made connections to organizations active in the Russian Federation. The reason other countries do not recognize the Russian anti-war movement is because it does not fit a certain narrative. The press and government of Europe and North America wants to present an image of a nefarious Russian Federation. Russophobia has become a normalized sentiment extending to a wider xenophobia. The language and paranoia of the Cold War has reemerged even though the Soviet Union no longer exists. Russian are seen as malevolent, rather than focusing on actions of the United Russia Party. The existence of anti-war activists in Russia dismantles the narrative of Russians unanimously supporting the government. The unusual aspect is that some would think that the EU would want to show support to the protest. The motivation would not be out of concern for the cause of peace, but rather to undermine President Vladimir Putin. Russian anti-war activists face imprisonment and are harassed by the government. The anti-war activists in other countries have shown limited support for those inside the Russian Federation. Suppression and lack of international solidarity will cause the anti-war movement in Russia to disappear. The estimate for the number of detained was 1,700 in 2022. The figures could be higher, but an official number has not been confirmed for 2023. The anti-war movement in Russia also has broken into factions divided on issues related to those who want President Putin to resign and support for opposition leader Alexei Navalny.