The Changes Coming To Eastern Europe

 

The Alaska Summit was held by President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The meeting did not produce any peace settlements or an end to violence. The speculation was that it was a discussion of partition of Ukraine. President Zelensky is set to meet with President Trump after the Alaska Summit.  The Russia-Ukraine War has changed Eastern Europe. Belarus is viewed with more hostility due to its alliance with the Russian Federation. The country has not sent any forces, but is subject to sanctions by the European Union. The rest of Eastern Europe is becoming more militarized. Poland does host US air defense systems and military bases. Even if a peace settlement is reached, US military bases will not be removed. Ukraine will lose territory and the western section under a US- European Union sphere of influence. Hungary being closer to the Russian Federation is seeing a decline in relations with the UK and Germany. The war is also causing changes in the Balkans and the Baltic. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are going to be given more arms. Kosovo is going to be pushed to be recognized to undermine Serbia.  NATO members in Europe are expected to increase spending to 5% of their GDP. The economic consequences are going to be negative for the citizens of the UK, Germany, France, and Italy. As taxation increases and social services are cut, public discord will grow. The demographic shift in Ukraine is going to effect the rest of Europe. Since 2022, Ukrainians have fled to avoid military service, violence, and seek safety. As more people die, the country is feeling the consequences of population decline. The Ukrainians that are refugees, might not decide to return. More refugees are going to come when the war is over. Sudden increases of refugee traffic from inside Europe will generate resentment. The loss of the Russia-Ukraine War will halt efforts at European integration. Eastern Europe is becoming divided between EU-NATO supporting countries and those that want diplomatic relations with Russia. 

European Union Increases Sanctions On Russia

 

The European Union has placed more sanctions on the Russian Federation. Sanctions have not ended the Russia-Ukraine War. These sanctions are ineffective and are having negative economic effects on EU countries. The increase in fuel prices harms businesses and consumers in Europe. The majority of African and Asian nations are not placing sanctions on the Russian Federation. The reason is due to the fact Russia has better relations with the Global South. Ukraine's war effort is taking a turn for the worst. The exchange of drone warfare and missiles has added to the brutality of the war. Ukraine has hit Moscow with long range missiles and did an incursion into Kursk. At some point, the Ukrainian military will collapse. The conflict is a war of attrition and a proxy operation under the supervision of NATO. Eastern Europe is not only being militarized, but the entire EU. Sanctions only hinder efforts at diplomatic resolution. President of the European Commission Ursula Von Der Leyen proposed  a 131 billion euro defense budget. This is going to paid for by taxing the citizens of the European Union countries. The United Kingdom hold the position of keeping the conflict going. The US has not produced a peace settlement and the majority of talks end in failure. The Istanbul talks are not going to end the conflict as long as sanctions are imposed on Russian energy. Now that President Zelensky is facing internal protests, his political future is uncertain. Protesters were voicing their grievances about government corruption. Even if the war ends the internal situation in Ukraine will be unstable. The EU would probably support an authoritarian Zelensky dictatorship for the sake of undermining the Russian Federation. Belarus could in the future subject to even more sanctions to harm a Russian ally.     

The European Union Does Not Want Peace In Ukraine

 

The European Union does not want a peace settlement in Ukraine. Since the Russia-Ukraine War broke out military aid and arms have been given by EU members. As Ukraine's losses mount, the much obvious path would be to start negotiations. The motivation for the European Union to keep the war going is to change the political dynamics of Europe. For European liberals and conservatives the war is a crusade to reinvigorate western values. Europe is struggling with its identity and cohesion. The era of large empires and international dominance has been declining gradually. European integration has to be in this view forcibly imposed on Eastern Europe. The West and Eastern Europe differ by politics and culture. The Russian Federation has a more traditional culture and is more aligned with the Global South. The EU member states are oriented to liberal democratic values with globalist sentiments. Conflict in Eastern Europe can be a gateway for forcing European integration on countries that do not favor it. The European Union insisted that the current was was unprovoked, when it was the 2014 coup that resulted in a series of unfortunate events. The Russian Federation either being weakened or dismantled would mean Europe would not have to be reliant on the country for energy. While it is apparent that Ukraine is not going to win the war, EU states do not want it to stop. France suggested sending some its own soldiers to Ukraine. Chances of a ceasefire are out of reach, even though President Putin would be open to an arrangement. President Zelensky does not believe the offer is genuine. The concern now is that the EU member states could send troops to Ukraine. Such a decision could spark a large European war.  

President Salome Zourabichvili Refuses To Acknowledge Election Results

 

President Salome Zourabichvili does not recognize the elections results. This was because the outcome was not to her liking. As demonstrations continue throughout the country, there are concerns that the newly elected government will not be able to enter office. President Zourabichvili has accused the political opposition of electoral fraud and the outcome being the result of Russian interference. None of these claims have evidence. Much of the current crisis relates to Georgia being part of the European Union or being closer to the  Eastern European  sphere. The change in the Georgian Constitution from a presidential to parliamentary system also has divided the public. The citizens can no longer vote directly for their head of state. Now it is done by electors. A constitutional crisis is underway and  President Salome Zourabichvili has stated that she will not step down. Her demand is to have another round of parliamentary elections. The pro-EU demonstrations also parallel Ukraine in 2014. Violence has not escalated to the point of civil war, but unrest can be used as an excuse for authoritarian rule. While the Georgian Dream Party is a more conservative aligned,   President Salome Zourabichvili's action of undermining the process indicates a desire to increase power of the state. Georgia does have oil, but is not the biggest energy producer in Europe. This explains why the European Union  has interest in the country. The location of Georgia is also geopolitically significant. Georgia is not part of NATO, but President Salome Zourabichvili  aspires to get the country into the alliance. There is not legal pathway for President Salome Zourabichvil to overturn election results. She might try to convince the European Union to intervene on her behalf. Elected president in 2018, President Salome Zourabichvili appears more focused on European integration, rather than Georgia's domestic concerns. 

Turkmenistan And EU Seeking An Agreement On The Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Coordination Platform

 

The European Union is seeking more economic ties to Turkmenistan. The diplomatic talks that happened this October focused on the establishment of  the  Coordination Platform. This is designed to make trade through the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor more efficient. Other Central Asian and  South Caucasus countries sent diplomats and representatives to the meeting. The agreements focused on development of infrastructure, the transport of cargo, and investment. Part of the objective is to promote economic growth in Central Asia and the EU. The construction of the Coordination Platform is set to launch in 2025. This does have benefits for Turkmenistan, but the concern relates to even distribution of them. Employment should be the first priority related to Turkmen. Wealth that is acquired from the project might not reach the average citizen. It might become part of the Berdimuhamedow family's assets. The country has been ruled by the father and son since 2022. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow was president from 2006 to 2022. The power sharing agreement was more of the establishment of co-ruling governance. It is unknown how much influence Serdar has on government. Gurbanguly still remains Chairmen of  the People's Council of Turkmenistan. Economic policy appears to be going in the direction of more investment and  association with the European Union. 

Viktor Orban Urges Ceasefire In The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban travelled to Ukraine to promote a ceasefire. Prime Minister Oban has not visited Ukraine since the conflict broke out in 2022. There have been attempts to make peace, but all have failed. President Volodymyr Zelensky has constantly asked for more aid from the European Union. One topic that was mentioned in the meeting was the ethnic Hungarians that reside in Ukraine. Tension exists with the Roma and ethnic Russian population. The discussion was related to the rights of the 100,000 Hungarians. Other bilateral matters were mentioned. After visiting Ukraine, Prime Minister Orban went to the Russian Federation. This did draw criticism from some EU countries, but seeking peace or an end to the war should not be condemned. Talking with President Vladimir Putin would help deescalate tensions. There is a possibility that these meetings will not produce any results. Hungary's motivations are not all altruistic. Seeking a ceasefire may be a means of preemptively stopping the chance of Ukrainian  refugees entering Hungary. Prime Minister Orban does not favor immigration to his country. When the war ends,  other EU nations are going to seek more influence in Ukraine. Hungary might be seeking to invest in Ukraine. Details and motivations remain unclear. If Viktor Orban was able to obtain a peace settlement that would elevate Hungary's diplomatic status. 

The European Union 2024 Elections

 

Europe is moving in the direction of the far-right. Much of this was predicted based on economic and political issues, The 2008 financial crisis created much social stress and it was followed by the refugee crisis. The Arab Spring since 2010 has caused massive waves of those fleeing countries in a state of war or subject to regime change. The issue persisted and far-right political parties exploited it to their advantage. When the Russia-Ukraine War broke out sanctions were imposed. This had an opposite effect, because Europe is dependent on Russian energy. The economic hardship that followed that policy caused unemployment and inflation. The citizens of EU countries lashed out by electing far-right parties in the 2024 EU elections. Political centrism is not going to stop the growing discontent across Europe. The voters are getting more vexed with a political establishment that does not respond t their needs. This might explain why French President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections. France is seeing a similar phenomenon in domestic politics. Many times far-right parties claim to have moderated their views. The tactic is designed to deceive voters of true intentions. The new far-right would not be fascist by definition. Analysts of political science call them populist, but the term is not specific enough for this shift. The precise term is xenophobic nativist nationalism. Those who have been active in politics for a number of years still do not comprehend the nature of this movement. Either it could become a serious threat to democratic institutions or a fringe movement regulated to forgotten history. Political conditions are not so turbulent that a totalitarian system could emerge. Under extreme economic and social distress it can. The European left must become formidable enough to challenge the establishment, centrist,  and the new xenophobic nativist nationalism movement. Otherwise the far-right parties are going to become more powerful.    

How The Russia-Ukraine War Ends

 The Russia-Ukraine War broke out in 2022. This was an extension of the internal civil war which continued to escalate. The destabilization of Eastern Europe was not an accident. The failure to adhere to the Minsk Accords enabled a bigger war and the opportunity to add more NATO members. Sweden and Finland are on the way to being new partners. Neoconservatives thought the Russian Federation would be weakened by a conflict on its border. The long term objective was to balkanize the country and make it lose its diplomatic connections to other countries. As the war progressed the delusional belief was that Ukraine could cause a major Russian defeat. Ukraine does not have the capability to defeat Russia. The US, UK, France, and Germany tried to convince the public that Russian defeat was inevitable. Observers of military affairs understood that this was not realistic. More weapons and funds are sent to Ukraine despite defeats and stalemates. Unless all of Europe goes to war with US assistance, the outcome will not be what the West intended. France has implied that it might be willing to send forces to Ukraine. The energy crisis and economic challenges has made the European public disgruntled. The public would be unwilling to fight a war for the sake of a neo-colonial imperial goal. Sending NATO forces in Ukraine would drag the United States further into the conflict. NATO forces have been reported to be stationed at the Ukrainian embassy. It is unclear the number of foreign forces inside Ukraine as of 2024. Ukraine is going to be defeated. When that happens depends on various factors. Wars could last for months or go on for years. The Russian intervention at some point will end. How the war ends can result in a number of outcomes. The Russian Federation could absorb all of Ukraine. Russia either retreats in the face of a combined US-NATO invasion. The more likely result is a peace settlement and the boundaries of Eastern Europe remain the same. 

       When Russia invaded the narrative was a  war of conquest. Russia invaded to support the militias fighting in the Donbass. The failure of  the second Minsk Accord cause the resumption of the civil war. If the 2014 coup never occurred, there would not have been a Russian military intervention. The narrative is that Russia is recreating the Soviet Union. Such an analysis does not take into account geopolitical realities. If the Soviet Union was to be revived Central Asia would have to be incorporated first. The region has more natural resources in comparison to Eastern Europe and the Baltic. The Russian Federation has no intention of restoring a one party communist state. Russia has embraced neoliberal capitalism. The dominance of the oligarchs shows the devasting effects of corporate avarice  and economic shock therapy from the 1990s. The narrative of a Soviet Union revival is more of historical fiction. Others active in geopolitical circles claim that  President Vladimir Putin aims to revive  the Russian Empire. To revive a Russian Empire, China would have to be neutralized. The People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation are moving toward an official military alliance. These actions do not indicate a revival  of  the Soviet Union and Russian Empire. Ukraine would not be a starting  point to build a Eurasian empire. Based on the events in 2023, Russia's goal was not to incorporate Ukraine. The long term objective is to halt NATO expansion getting closer to its borders. 

Russia is not attempting to force Ukraine into its territory. NATO secretary general Jen Stolenberg  admitted the war is not about saving Ukraine. Rather the Russia-Ukraine War was to justify expanding the military alliance. Stolenberg stated " the background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty  that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO entanglement." Russia is not invading Western Europe. NATO is becoming a more aggressive presence not only in Europe, but around the globe. This explains why Russia continues to support Belarus to counter Ukraine. The reason President Alexander Lukashenko allowed Russian forces stationed in the country. Belarus could be a target of NATO in the future. The alliance with Russia is designed to prevent a foreign military intervention . Whatever conquest would happen would be irridentist absorption of ethnic Russian population. Russia is not using Ukraine as launching center to invade all of Europe. 

      The most concerning outcome is a NATO war. This NATO war would involve all members to fight in Ukraine. The precarious nature  of this is possible nuclear war. A NATO-Russia war would involve the United States. Both the Russian Federation and the United States of America have massive nuclear arsenals. Russia does not want article 5 to be invoked. Without the INF Treaty there is no precautionary measures. A NATO-Russia war would either be Germany, France, and the UK sending soldiers to Ukraine. As Russia gets closer to Kiev they would be sent to prevent Ukraine's collapse. What neoconservatives hoped was that the Russia-Ukraine War would induce a Russian fall. The Russian-Ukraine War would then morph into a conflict into a balkanization. If Russia's defeat in Ukraine was immensely devastating it could create  a situation similar to the 1991 U.S.S.R collapse or the break-up of Yugoslavia. The Russian Federation would be divided into multiple successor states. Ukraine is not going to be able to push Russia back. The Russian Federation's economy and armed forces are too stable to induce dissolution. However, a US-NATO invasion could cause the Russian Federation to collapse. If such a war to take place there would be nuclear engagement. The end of the INF Treaty makes the situation extremely precarious. The conflict would be on the scale of a world war and possibly merge existing conflicts. A NATO war if Russia lost would mean it would break into a number of fragments. European Russia would be separated from Asian Siberia. NATO after a massive war would occupy the new polities. While the Ukrainian Civil War morphed into a Ukraine-Russia confrontation, turning into a Russia-NATO is not likely. The US, France, and the UK find it easier to keep the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a war of proxy. Financing, production of arms, and public support are going to be strained. The "stand with Ukraine" public relations effort cannot survive when people must be drafted, taxes have to be increased, and inflation from the energy crisis remain obstructions. Destabilizing the whole Eurasian landmass contains too many complications. Neoconservatives as another alternative geostrategy could seek to just reduce Russian national power. A weak Russian Federation means there is no opposition to the US-European Union bloc. A US-NATO invasion of Russian will not happen due to the difficulties of sustaining combat operations. 

       A peace settlement is possible. Russia prior to the conflict wanted to have a discussion with the United States about security guarantees. President Vladmir Putin discussed being open to dialogue. The announcement was given at his presidential inauguration. A number of towns and villages  are falling to Russian forces.  The northeast is witnessing an offensive. Simultaneously, Ukrainian soldiers are deserting and  filling positions become more difficult. Ukrainian refugees that are in other parts of Europe have no intention of  returning.  Ukraine has sent drones into Russia. These have had no effect because they are not hitting military targets. Russian citizens are at risk, but it has killed very few. Acts of terrorism will not change the events happening in the eastern  or the northeastern front. The invasion has evolved into a war of attrition. Despite all the arms to Ukraine, expulsion of Russian forces is not achievable. The Russian Federation will be closer to Kiev and capture it. Assuming the fighting continues with  guerilla warfare  tactics  or armed resistance, it will be over. The Russian offensive has caused 1,700 Ukrainians to flee. Civilians are not as likely to remain and take up arms. Ukraine's military attempted an counteroffensive in 2023. The June operation did not produce a tactical victory or shorten the war. Ukraine's military has deteriorated from a war of attrition. Under this pressure either the government or military will collapse. Ukraine might  request a peace settlement to avoid further deaths. President Volodymyr Zelensky was thinking about discussing peace with Russia, until Prime Minister  Boris Johnson convinced him not to. Seeing as the path to victory is narrow, Russians will probably dictate most of the peace terms. Removing President Zelensky is not going to be part of  a peace treaty. If Russia wanted they could have assassinated him by an airstrike. The reason they do not do this is because the more far-right extremists would takeover. A recreation of 2014 would mean another cycle of attacks and ethnic cleansing in the Donbas. The agreement would dictate that Ukraine has a neutral status or does not become a member of NATO. Either the Donbas becomes independent or seeks to join the Russian Federation through referendum. Russia's ownership of Crimea must be recognized under the peace agreement. These are the possible terms that Ukraine would have to accept after defeat. The map of Europe is not going to drastically change. Based on the Russo-Georgian  War in 2008, Ukraine does not have to fear losing its independence. Georgia lost some territory, but was not incorporated into Russia. Ukraine could lose Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia. Those two provinces may even try to become their own states. Ukraine would object to this, but have no choice to acknowledge the peace terms.

     Peace should be the preferred outcome. Even if established, Eastern Europe will not be the same. Ukraine during the civil war and the Russia-Ukraine War has become more authoritarian. President Volodymyr  Zelensky has postponed elections even though his term is set to expire. He might cling to power using a state of emergency justification. Just because the war comes to an end does not mean rights will be respected. Ukraine at the moment is not a member of NATO. Instead it will be further militarized by the European Union. More tanks, planes, and guns are going to sent to Ukraine, because the arms industry sees it as an investment. Ukraine has amassed large debt from the war. The countries that provided financial assistance are not going to allow debt cancellation. Ukraine will be at the mercy of the UK. France, Germany, and the United States. Russia's influence is not undermining Ukraine's sovereignty; the West is. The Ukraine project in terms of military goals  has been a failure. Russia did not fall or become weaker. To avoid condemnation, the narrative is being adjusted. The escalation of the war is going to be presented as a preemptive measure. The West halted Russian expansion into Europe. The dishonest assertion ignores the fact that the catalyst was adding more NATO members. NATO is not seeking a defensive strategy, rather an anti-Russian military alliance. Any country that has armed forces coming closer to its borders will react. The mistake of the Russian Federation was being provoked into intervention in the Ukrainian Civil War. The war of proxy that is occurring might not produce the results belligerents desire. The war caused more countries to join NATO. The United States has not been able to destabilize or produce regime change in Russia. When peace does come the relations between countries shall be altered. Ukraine and Belarus are going to have worse diplomatic relations. Russia is going to invest more in building Belarus militarily as a counter to Ukraine. A peace treaty can be made, but this will not shield the region from the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War. Refugees, damaged infrastructure, and far-right extremist violence are going to be persistent issues.               

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico Hospitalized

 

Robert Fico is in critical condition after being shot at a political rally. This was an apparent assassination attempt. The reasons for the attempted assassination are yet to be revealed. The news of Prime Minister Robert Fico's hospitalization is causing concern in Europe. The continent is becoming more unstable and this assassination attempt demonstrates instability could spread to France , the UK, and Germany. Prime Minister Robert Fico has been a longtime figure in Slovakian politics. He first served as prime minister from 2006 to 2010. Fico returned to office a second time from 2012 to 2018. The Smer Party is considered on the left. However, this does not mean Fico was unwilling to work with leaders such as Viktor Orban. The Hungarian prime minister's politics are more far-right in comparison. The reason Fico might have been attacked was because of his desire to make peace with Russia. Prime Minister Fico did not want to arm Ukraine. The more conservative and pro-NATO elements of Slovakia began to protest. The shoot according to Slovakian reports was a 71 year old man. The motivation remains unclear. Some speculate the culprit was vexed at the election outcome last October. Slovakia does not have a history of political violence. Parliament concerned about growing violence decided to suspend debate. A date has not been given for resumption of duties. Slovakia is heading to an era of extreme political polarization. The assassination attempt is going to divide the public even more.   

Victoria Nuland Curses The European Union (2014)

 

Victoria Nuland one of America's prominent diplomats will be leaving her post. The circumstances are not clear, but it indicates that there is a problem with the direction of US foreign policy. Nuland worked under the Bush, Obama, and Biden administrations. Her goal was to get aggressive with the Russian Federation. The policy related to Ukraine was interference. Victoria Nuland back in 2014 cursed the European Union. The reason was that it was not following an anti-Russian policy. The United States under a neoconservative framework should have more influence in Europe. The European Union is viewed more like an obstacle to making the continent subordinate. Seeing as she was the US ambassador to NATO, Nuland wanted to see the military alliance expand. Ukraine was going to be a testing ground for further expansion. The phone call been the US ambassador and Nuland indicates an attempt to select Ukrainian leadership. Nuland is a reminder that no matter who is elected, the foreign policy mechanisms remain the same. Victoria Nuland leaves a legacy of destabilizing Eastern Europe.  

Josep Borrell Refers To The Global South As A Jungle (2022)

 

Josep Borrell serves as the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Borrell in 2022 stated that "Europe is a garden" then compared the rest of the world to a jungle. The analogy was a common racist trope. Borrell's statements were directed at Africa, Asia, and South America. The image that he presented was one of invading immigrant hordes destabilizing Europe. Many European politicians ignore why the Global South is in such a condition. The NATO invasion of Libya caused the migrant crisis. Venezuela is being targeted for regime change. Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria were invaded. The arms industry promotes conflict to increase profits. His statement also present a false image of Europe being a paradise. The UK and France are facing economic difficulties. Public discord, xenophobic nativist nationalism, and civil disturbance are more prevalent. Borrell represents what the political elite truly feel about Global South nations. The European Union's inability to foster batter diplomatic relations with African and Asian nations is rooted in attitudes such as Borrell's. Overtime Europe's racism and prejudice will isolate it from the world.  

Rising Tension Between Poland And Belarus

 

Belarus and Poland are seeing a decline in diplomatic relations. Poland has stated that Belarus sent military helicopters into its air space. Now rumors are circulating that there is a possibility of a military strike. Belarus has not engaged in the war in Ukraine. The country has allowed Russian troops to be stationed in its territory. However, no Belarusians have fought in the conflict, Fears have grown that Belarus will either be pulled into the conflict by NATO or forced to do so by the Russian Federation. Ever since the Wagner Group incident, the mercenary organization has remained in Belarus. NATO has accused it of attempting to threaten member states by using Belarus as a base. The air space incident probably was not intentional. Minsk did alert Warsaw about a military exercise they were conducting. If there was a plan of a war, a nation would not make its plans known to a foreign government. It has been known that Poland has attempted to instigate conflict with Belarus. Much of the tension focuses on the Suwalki gap. This border has much strategic significance to Russia, Belarus, and the EU. The vital link to Kaliningrad is an area the Russian Federation does not want to lose. If Belarus was invaded by NATO that would put Russia in a precarious situation. The Poland and Belarus tension is the direct result of NATO adding members such as Finland as well as Sweden. The counter by being active in the Suwalki gap would be to cut off the Baltic states from other NATO members. Poland is having diplomatic disputes with Ukraine. Their is frustration from Poland when it comes to assisting Ukraine in grain export. Poland has provided aid to Ukraine, but a sentiment exists that Ukraine has not been appreciative for the help. Belarus would not attack Poland due to Article Five. Belarus would then have to fight the majority of European countries. Poland has an investment in attacking Belarus. The view is that it is not its own country, but a Russian extension. If that were the case Belarus would have been more active in Ukraine. The decline in Polish-Belarusian relations reveals the rapid destabilization of Eastern Europe.   

Germany's Recession

 

Germany is Europe's largest economy and is now in recession. The concern is that this could be an indication of  a growing economic crisis. The effect could be global and other EU countries could be effected. Output has fallen to 0.3 % in the first quarter of 2023. The aftermath of COVID-19, inflation, and the sanctions on Russia are contributing factors. Manufacturing has seen a slump in Germany. Combined with a decline in retail sales demonstrates consumers have little disposable income. If prices increase for food and fuel, consumers will not spend more.    The recession could last longer than what some economists predict. The European Central Bank has increased interest rates, which has not been done since 2008. This policy will not be a solution to the recession. Even if the sanctions related to fuel were abolished, the damage has been done. Businesses and workers are going to face the majority of hardship. Germany has a 7.2 % inflation rate, which means the average German citizen will struggle to afford certain products. The Bundesbank claims that the economy should recover around April to June. The hope is that industry will see growth, which will counter low consumer spending. Reducing subsidies for hybrid and electric cars was not the best decision for the current quarter. Car production is an essential part of the physical economy and ensures a source of employment. The German auto industry becomes less  competitive without technological innovation. The warning signs of a bigger recession were seen in 2021. According to the Federal Statistical Office ( Destatis ) Germany was  technically in a recession in March of 2021.   

Russia Intends To Place Tactical Nuclear Weapons In Belarus

 

The Russian Federation intends to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Building up the military strength of Belarus was one plan to counter NATO expansion. The option was available if or when Ukraine becomes part of the military alliance. The second option was to intervene in Ukraine's civil war and secure the Donbas. Now it appears that a hybrid of both plans will be used. Without the INF Treaty, nuclear weapons production will increase. Finland comes closer to NATO membership, Russia wants to counter the new members with Belarus. Eastern Europe is becoming more militarized. Tension and fear only creates a more unstable atmosphere. The proliferation of nuclear weapons next to a war zone could cause further escalation. Tactical nuclear weapons are short range and to not have the capability of obliterating entire cities. These types of nuclear weapons are not subject to the same treaties as strategic nuclear weapons. The United States also has tactical nuclear weapons present on the soil of its NATO allies. Knowing this the possibility of a nuclear war becomes more likely. This is the first time Russia has sought to deploy nuclear weapons outside its borders since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The decision might have been adopted in response to the ICC warrant for President Vladmir Putin and the continued shipment of arms from EU countries. Whatever the result will be, Eastern Europe has become a zone of proxy war. 

Europe Has The Highest Amount of Alcohol Consumption

 

The World Health Organization earlier this year reported that there is no safe amount of alcohol consumption. This could have serious implications related to public health. Europe consumes the highest amount of alcohol in the world. The data from the WHO states that the average European consumes about 9.5 litres. The demographic analysis started at ages 15 and up. The overconsumption of alcohol can have negative health outcomes. Recently, the WHO has called attention to the link with certain cancers. The throat, mouth, esophagus, and breasts could be vulnerable to cancer due to overconsumption of alcohol. The European health report noted that total alcohol consumption decreased between 2000 and 2019. The data also revealed that men tend to drink more than women. The largest sex related gap can be seen in Spain and Portugal. The countries with the highest amount of consumption included the Czech Republic, Germany, Latvia, Moldova, Lithuania, Ireland, Spain, Bulgaria, Luxembourg, and Romania( all were measured in per capita ). The lowest age demographic for consumption was between the ages 15 to 24. The report noticed as people got older the more alcohol consumption increased. No reason was provided about this connection with age and amount of  drinking. The reason some might drink heavily is due to stress or episodes of depression. Seeing as this is being done in advanced age, it could strain  the healthcare system. The potential public health crisis will be more gradual. The only means of stopping this is updating labelling. The full lists of the potential risks should be made public. The WHO estimates 1,000,000 perished from alcohol related  health issues. The data was only from the countries of the Europe. Union. Providing knowledge to the public can be a  a preemptive measure to prevent a major  health crisis.  The WHO declaration was too slow in coming to the conclusion about amount of  safe alcohol consumption. Updating warning labels and encouraging people to reduce their drinking are useful solutions.       

France Wants To Increase The Retirement Age

 

France intends to increase the retirement age despite growing public opposition. Demonstrators and unions have been active expressing their anger over the new legislation. President Macron claimed that moving the age up was designed to confront France's deficit. Nationwide strikes will continue if this economic policy becomes law. The proposed change cannot solve the deficit. Such an event only occurs when revenue cannot not cover expenses of a nation. A practical solution would be for France to start exporting more goods to other countries. Doing so would increase the needed economic growth. Making it more difficult to get a pension does not help an economy. The government does not want to give its citizens the benefits of contributing to France's labor force. The proposed change will disproportionately harm the working class labor force. Among this group most might live to collect their pension. Those who are in dangerous professions are negatively impacted. The 64 years of age retirement proposal has induced labor strikes across the country. Sanitation and transportation workers are becoming more involved in the opposition to reform. If the legislation passes, more demonstrations will continue. Funding the pension system requires higher taxation . What critics claim is that the age increase is a means of gradually abolishing it.  The workforce could die before collecting their pensions. The argument would be made that it would no longer be necessary. The movement to increase retirement age is not just happening in France. The EU is attempting to impose it on member states.  

The Russian Mobilization

 

Russian mobilization marks a turning point in the war. Ukraine could be engulfed by the Russian Federation if a peace settlement is not reached. NATO expansion is what instigated the conflict, yet few European leaders want to address the issue. The reaction inside the Russian Federation has been a growing  anti-war movement. Germany, France, and the UK ignore these protests and instead demonize the Russian population. Russia at the start of the invasion did not use their full military capability. Now there is a desire to do so. The only way for the conflict to end is to make Ukraine neutral and halt NATO expansion in Eastern Europe. Russia can easily halt all energy sales to Europe in response to arming Ukraine. Germany, France, and the UK are facing an energy crisis . Without gas and oil  the European economy is in peril. The weapons and money being shipped are not fully accounted for. Allegations have been made a majority of the weapons Ukraine requested have not reached them. The invasion was at first not about conquest. It was to aid the militias in the east. That might change if further escalation continues. The only way Russia could lose is if every NATO county attacked with the United States. These actions could trigger a nuclear exchange. A direct conflict between the United States and Russia would result in nuclear war. Russian mobilization does not mean the country is struggling. Russia is pushing to end the conflict in a few months. The intent of  NATO is to extend the conflict for several years to weaken Russia. This cannot happen if the Ukrainian military cannot defend against more forces entering its territory. The mobilization phase shows that the Russia-Ukraine war is going to get more violent.  

Giorgia Meloni Elected Prime Minister of Italy

 

The failure of political centrism and neoliberal economic policy has pushed populations to the right. The election of Giorgia Meloni demonstrates this political trend. Her election also contradicts a narrative that women being elected to office is an indication of progressive political triumph. Female leaders have the potential to be just a harmful to society and citizens as their male counterparts. While the right has never been an advocate for women's rights, they claim sexism when  opponents criticize her political positions. The Italian voter has become so desperate and vexed that they are willing to select leaders with questionable ideology. Giorgia Meloni has expressed an authoritarian right sentiment mixed with xenophobic nativist nationalism. Her claim is that Italy's identity and family values are under attack. Giorgia Meloni also claims that the economic system has put the average person at a disadvantage. Yet, she has no intention of fighting the neoliberal capitalist system. The liberal critics state that Italy has fallen into fascism. A serious economic and constitutional crisis would have to occur to make that possible. As long as inflation and  the energy crisis continues in Europe there could be major disturbances. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia -Ukraine War has resulted in this shift to populist right-wing authoritarianism. The lack of a genuine leftist political block  only empowers this growing phenomenon. The Brothers of Italy claims to be anti-establishment, but Giorgia Meloni has been active in various offices and political parties. The worse the economy becomes, the greater political power the authoritarian-right gains. These  events explain Giorgia Meloni's election as prime minister.     

The Boris Johnson Set To Resign

 

Boris Johnson will be stepping down as Conservative Party leader. Prime Minister Johnson will also be resigning from office when a successor is found. A number of grievances  were growing in the UK, which resulted in cabinet resignations. The handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns put much strain on the population. The sanctions on Russia, which caused more economic concerns for Europe added to the stress. The long process of Brexit and leaving the EU also caused complications. All these challenges, scandals,  and a more unstable Europe caused the fall of Johnson's government. While the British public was in lockdown, it was discovered that Prime Minister Johnson was attending parties. Partygate as it is known colloquially caused much anger, but that was not the only reason. Rising food and fuel prices in the UK are linked to the sanctions imposed on Russia. The British public is not willing to finance a proxy war in Ukraine. The Conservative Party gradually turned on Boris Johnson realizing the problems with his leadership. All the scandals began to be exposed, but this does not mean he is leaving office immediately. Johnson will remain at his post till at least October. That means he can still influence policies of government. A wave off conservative nationalist populism has swept across Europe and it enables corrupt governments to be elected. The consequences can  last far beyond a leaders service in office. The Conservative Party despite the mass resignations and scandals holds significant power. The UK over the next few years will face challenges to political and economic structure.  

Finland And Sweden Are Seeking NATO Membership

 

Finland and Sweden are seeking to be members of NATO. There reasons are based on the events surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If NATO expansion was one of the reasons for the outbreak of war, this only increases chances of a larger European conflict. NATO's purpose was for defense against the Soviet Union. Since 1997, more countries have been added to the alliance, even though the Soviet Union no longer existed. Expansion indirectly implies in the future NATO will one day seek a war with the Russian Federation. Finland joining NATO  is more surprising. Finland was able to win a war against the Soviet Union. The Russo-Finnish War (1939-1940)  resulted in Russian defeat. During World War II Finland fought with Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union in the War of Continuation (1941-1944). Finland then made a separate peace and fought against Germany. Finland and Russia eventually signed a peace treaty in 1947. The two countries continued to have good relations. There is no reason to assume that Finland cannot defend itself. Sweden through most of the 20th century to early 2lst century has been a neutral European nation. The nation has valued diplomacy, rather than armed conflict. Turkey has objected to adding these two countries to NATO. Europe is becoming more militarized, which will cause instability. Russia has condemned the actions of Finland and Sweden, but has limited options. Attacking the Nordic countries would complicate matters. The only solution would be to arm Belarus as a counter to new NATO members. This enables President Alexander Lukashenko to become more important to Russia. Europe might become a larger warzone beyond Ukraine, if NATO keeps expanding.  Strategic  diplomacy is needed to prevent further escalation.