Botswana's Healthcare Emergency

 

Botswana is facing a healthcare crisis. A massive shortage of medicine and medical equipment is the country's major concern. President Duma Boko stated funds are being amassed to counter lack of supplies and the military will act as distributor. The healthcare crisis is being blamed on the decline of the global diamond market and cuts from foreign aid. The failure to not utilize the diamond trade to healthcare demonstrates mismanagement. The crisis also reveals how foreign aid is not protection. The accumulation of debt creates dependency. The objective for Botswana should have been to independent in its healthcare services. A domestic ,medical supply chain must be developed. Central Medical Stores has been accused of corruption and links to the current medical supply chain issue. The CMS is a state procurement agency, which works with various intermediaries. The increase in drug prices and reduced medical service will harm low income Botswanans .Despite these challenges Botswana has dramatically reduced the rate of HIV. African nations must assist others on the continent. Rather than being reliant on foreign aid, programs should be created by the African Union. Botswana does have options. Some of these would required greater cooperation with South Africa, Malawi, and Tanzania. Botswana's healthcare crisis is a warning to all nations that do not have a stable domestic medical supply chain.      

The Changes Coming To Eastern Europe

 

The Alaska Summit was held by President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The meeting did not produce any peace settlements or an end to violence. The speculation was that it was a discussion of partition of Ukraine. President Zelensky is set to meet with President Trump after the Alaska Summit.  The Russia-Ukraine War has changed Eastern Europe. Belarus is viewed with more hostility due to its alliance with the Russian Federation. The country has not sent any forces, but is subject to sanctions by the European Union. The rest of Eastern Europe is becoming more militarized. Poland does host US air defense systems and military bases. Even if a peace settlement is reached, US military bases will not be removed. Ukraine will lose territory and the western section under a US- European Union sphere of influence. Hungary being closer to the Russian Federation is seeing a decline in relations with the UK and Germany. The war is also causing changes in the Balkans and the Baltic. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are going to be given more arms. Kosovo is going to be pushed to be recognized to undermine Serbia.  NATO members in Europe are expected to increase spending to 5% of their GDP. The economic consequences are going to be negative for the citizens of the UK, Germany, France, and Italy. As taxation increases and social services are cut, public discord will grow. The demographic shift in Ukraine is going to effect the rest of Europe. Since 2022, Ukrainians have fled to avoid military service, violence, and seek safety. As more people die, the country is feeling the consequences of population decline. The Ukrainians that are refugees, might not decide to return. More refugees are going to come when the war is over. Sudden increases of refugee traffic from inside Europe will generate resentment. The loss of the Russia-Ukraine War will halt efforts at European integration. Eastern Europe is becoming divided between EU-NATO supporting countries and those that want diplomatic relations with Russia. 

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Has Fled Bangladesh

 

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has fled Bangladesh. Reports have suggested she has taken refuge in India. Demonstrations spread throughout Bangladesh due to the quota on government jobs. This became very contentious when positions were going to be reserved for relatives of veterans of the independence war. The quota seems to be for the younger generation, who never fought in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. A growing concern about nepotism and corruption was becoming part of the political discourse. Students are becoming the focal point of the protests. When they graduate, the expectation is they can compete for public sector jobs. Relatives of veterans are going to get an unfair advantage. The Supreme Court still supported the 5% government job reservation for the privileged. Even though they rejected the proposed increase their neutrality is being questioned. Prime Minister Sheik Hasina responded with crackdowns by law enforcement. The growing accusation is that the quota system was a means of rewarding those loyal to the Awami League. Bangladesh has seen economic growth, but this did not result in higher employment or  living standards. Students are particularly frustrated, because after attaining higher education employment is no present. Prime Minister Hasina did not address economic needs of the population. Imposing a curfew during protests caused her downfall. Instability in Bangladesh goes beyond its borders. India sees Bangladesh as an important ally.  Military coups over the years make Bangladesh's parliamentary system fragile. Coups occurred in 1975, 1981, 2007, 2009, and 2012. The recent coup is different. Refugees from Myanmar, instability in Pakistan, and the Taliban government in Afghanistan are going to be factors in Bangladesh. The military claims an interim government will be formed. The assertion was that Prime Minister Hasina resigned, but appears that she was forced from power. The protests are continuing despite her removal.    

Kamala Harris Endorsed By President Joseph Biden As The Democratic Nominee

 

President Joseph Biden announced he will drop out of the presidential race. Mounting pressure after the first presidential debate grew. The choice to exit could have been due to declining polls, growing concerns  and concerns related to the Israel-Gaza War and  his cognitive health. President Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris when she ran in 2020 was not polling well. As Vice President Kamala Harris was tasked to confront issues related to immigration and police brutality. None of these campaign promises materialized. The Democratic Party is losing the working class and taking the African American vote for granted. Selecting Kamala Harris as the nominee appears to be an effort to create an Obama like figure. Much has changed since 2008 and 2012. The middle class continues to shrink in size, while political centrists become more distant from the general public. The Democratic Party now has to select a nominee for president with the election just a few months away. There could be an open convention. These developments indicate that the Democratic Party might suffer major losses in the upcoming election cycle. Donald Trump still maintains a good chance of returning to the presidency. Kamala Harris does not have a list of accomplishments that can be used to bolster her image. Her career as a prosecutor also draws scrutiny among those concerned about the abuses of law enforcement. The Biden administration has failed to return the US to a state of calm. Unless Kamala Harris offers a more progressive solution, she will not obtain the presidency.  

The Kenya Tax Protests

 

Ongoing protests are spreading through Kenya against changes in taxation. The finance bill has been a major source of contention among the public. President William Ruto stated that he will not sign the bill into law.  The demonstrations are more than just an unfair tax system. The cost of living has caused much strain on the public. National debt to other counties leaves Kenya at the mercy of foreign  creditors. When food, fuel, and other commodities become too expensive this causes a reaction. Kenya still is using the recommendations of the IMF. The finance bill was created as a means of making Kenya less dependent on borrowing. What this appears to be is taking the money of Kenyans and transferring it to other nations. The youth are getting more disgruntled with current economic conditions. President William Ruto's election triumph was with the help of the youth vote. Kenya faces a debt crisis and the interference of the International Monetary Fund. Unemployment and an distorted tax code demonstrate economic inequality. Kenya's total debt is estimated at $80 billion. The policy must be one that does not harm the Kenyan population. Kenya should consider negotiating debt cancellation. This would not be possible for the World Bank or IMF. Trying to get debt cancelled would be easier with certain nations. Doing so would help end the debt crisis faster. Some demonstrators want President William Ruto to resign. Kenya faces major challenges and the current policies generate more poverty. 

The Increase of Protests Across Africa

 

The African continent is seeing a wave of public discord. A number of demonstrations have occurred related to the cost of living and low wages. This is another example of how IMF and World Bank policies have never been helpful to African nations. What induced this new wave of protests was the COVID-19 pandemic aftermath. The pandemic did not just cause devastation to public health; the economy suffered. Business closed, unemployment increased, and inflation put a strain on the public. South Africa and Morocco saw the most protests in the five year span. The frustration has gotten so intense it has escalated into riots. The data reveals a total of  5,039 demonstrations related to economic inequality. Most of the protests were peaceful, but it was recorded that 13% erupted in violence. Food security is directly linked to some of the protests. Inflation directly effects food prices, which becomes a dire concern. Sudan's protests have multiple causes related to the military government , civil war, and authoritarian oppression. Tunisia's economy has not recovered from the rule of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Nigeria squanders its oil wealth and the DRC is fighting another M23 rebel insurrection. Africa is rich in resources, but corrupt governments and foreign interventions are undermining economic development. Algeria, Uganda, and Kenya also share the same issue of a cost of living crisis. This is not unique to Africa. The cost of living crisis is spreading. Africa is just experiencing it earlier. The ramifications of a cost of living crisis means political  instability.   

The SAG-AFTRA and WGA Labor Strike

 

Economic inequality and shrinking income is hitting all sectors of the economy. Corporate avarice has induced a simultaneous Writers Guild of America and Screen Actors Guild American Federation of Television and Radio Artists strike. The writers and actors are not seeing an increase income, when production companies are generating billions. Considering that streaming services are doing well, there is no reason why income should not increase. This is not the first time writers went on strike. The 2007 strike resulted in some Tv programs falling behind in production. The longer this continues films, TV programs, and radio productions could grind to a halt. The only logical solution is to reach an agreement. Labor unions lost much power over the decades. The problem is that many labor unions across various industries or occupations do not have solidarity. A mass strike across the nation in various sectors has the potential to finally challenge the abuses of corporate power. What prevents this is  class division among the workers. The actors and writers would not be traditionally considered working class like miners or railroad workers. Labor unions for law enforcement are designed to act as a protector for corruption and police brutality. The Teachers Union most likely would not come to the aid of a railroad strike. The limitation of  labor strikes in  America relates to the lack of political and class consciousness. The protestors just want some reforms, rather than revolution. It might take a revolution to stop the abuse of corporations and to improve the status of employees.  It was 1980 went actors went on strike against the film and television industry. The only time writers and actors were on strike concurrently was in 1960. What should be learned is from these events is that both the WGA and SAG-AFTRA should collaborate. Doing so allows them to put more pressure on companies to reach a suitable agreement. Labor strikes are going to be more common as long as corporations continue exploit their workers.   

The Negative Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns

 The World Health Organization declared that COVID-19 is  no longer a public health emergency. It appears that the pandemic gradually is coming to an end. That does not put a stop to the concerns and controversy surrounding public health policy. Considerable debate continues about the origins of the virus. The origin was either zoonotic or the result of gain of function research. Bats and pangolins were cited as the origin of COVID-19. However, the Wuhan Lab that was doing viral research might have been the source. The lab leak theory gains more credibility when viral research has been done for a number of years internationally. A definite answer or conclusion cannot be made without an investigation. Speculation is not conspiracy theory. Notions that COVID-19 was a Chinese bioweapon or part of a depopulation program would be deemed conspiracy theories. The accusation of disinformation and conspiracy theory has been designed to deflect major failures during the crisis. Public health policy was handled poorly and caused more damage. Lockdowns were neither effective or helpful in stopping the virus. The negative impacts will be seen for years to come. Education, the economy, and  personal health suffered due to the lockdowns imposed. Social distancing, vaccination, viral testing, use of masks,  and quarantines  were far more effective methods than lockdowns. Few questioned the policy or acknowledged the devastation it caused. Anti-lockdown protests occurred, because the policy was causing psychological and economic harm to citizens. The more restrictions that came, the greater the possibility of basic human rights to violated. The COVID-19 pandemic ushered in an era of biosecurity policing state apparatus. When the next  pandemic emerges methods might become more draconian. Lockdowns should not be part of public health policy. 

     Education was effected. Children were experiencing learning loss. Locking down schools had no scientific basis given the data. Children were at the lowest risk of death from COVID-19. Risk factors increased based on age and health condition. A person with comorbidities would ne more likely to die from the virus. Healthy children would be safe. The lockdown of schools put struggling students at a disadvantage. Those with learning disabilities or students having difficulty with a particular subject need in person instruction. Students who had  high academic performance also experienced learning loss. Reading and mathematics must be taught in a certain way. Online instruction is not enough to fully master these subjects. The  digital divide demonstrated the disparities among students. Every child does not have internet access. Students of lower socioeconomic status were put at a disadvantage. While primary and secondary school students were negatively impacted, university students were as well. COVID-19  made most classes online. Considering that students are paying high tuition, this becomes more egregious. Students come to class to get a full lecture and instruction. The fact in person learning  was not part of students 2020 semester deprived them of the educational experience. Learning loss is not a temporary mishap. Children who do not learn the essential skills needed will struggle to get employment in the future. As technology and the process of automation advances higher education will be needed for the majority of the workforce. Disruptions such lockdowns jeopardized children's education. 

      The economic devastation from lockdowns can still be felt. Small businesses struggled, unemployment increased, and the world's population lost financial security. Governments did not supply an adequate amount of funds for people to sustain themselves under lockdown. While major corporations were protected, small businesses failed. Working from home was an option for some. Certain jobs cannot operate this way. Construction, retail, and public transportation need employees to present. Some financial aid did come, but did account for cost of living. Rent, utilities,  mortgages,  food, and fuel still had to be paid. Lockdowns made it  impossible to conduct basic commerce. The result was a rapid growth electronic commerce. Seeing as shops, stores, and shopping centers were not open due to lockdown restrictions an uneven shift occurred. Microsoft , Amazon , and streaming services did not have competition. The stores that did remain open began doing price gouging. Those who were employed as essential workers were praised, but did not get the proper amount of hazard pay. Nurses and grocery store workers were made into heroic figures, yet not treated as such. The economy was made worse by lockdowns and exacerbated class division. The poor suffered more in comparison to the upper class elite. Those who who were middle class were getting closer to falling into poverty. Unless a person could get remote work, finding a job was more difficult during the pandemic. Staying home would not be possible unless a person had  enough income to cover living expenses. The years between 2021 to 2022 did not see a recovery. People did not return to jobs, because the pay was to low . When the lockdowns ended all the businesses did not return. The use of masks and social distancing would have been a more practical solution . Instead lockdowns and erroneous supply-side economic policies were implemented.   

      The well being of the public was harmed by lockdowns. Reports of mental health concerns and a rise of domestic violence became common. Loneliness and depression rates were directly connected to the lockdowns. These mental health conditions existed before lockdowns, it just caused more people to suffer from them. The anxiety was also induced by a media and government that promoted fear rather than rational solutions. Panic and concerns about getting sick made some withdraw from social contact. People could not see friends or family. To some this a critical support system. Those with a stable relationships in their social circles discovered for the first time how it feels to be isolated. The lockdowns had an disparity between men and women in terms of well being. Domestic violence became a bigger threat to women under lockdowns. Women who experienced this abuse had limited options during the pandemic. Women's shelters might not have been available. The freedom of movement was restricted and women attempting to escape violence was made harder. Little consideration was given to the horrid condition in which victims of violence live. Mental health was not only effected, but a physical condition can be too. People require some exposure to sunlight. Being sedentary during lockdown can alter circulatory system health. The feeling of being trapped caused a sense of hopelessness. Some were even speculating that the lockdown was going to be a "new normal ."  People who were financially secure  felt lockdowns were an extended vacation. Others were stressed, losing their housing, and in state of constant anguish. The decline in mental health predates the pandemic. The public health crisis made it worse. 

      Lockdowns were presented as the only solution. When the pandemic started vaccines were not available. Those who challenged the position were either ignored or accused of spreading disinformation. When it became apparent that a zero COVID-19 policy was not possible, more people objected to lockdowns. Anti-lockdown protests emerged in Germany, China, the US, Spain, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Hungary, and Austria. Canada, Israel, and Lebanon also saw anti-lockdown protests. The demonstrations were not a far-right plot, but a reaction to strict stay at home orders. Citizens were almost forced to protest due to governments not giving sufficient funds to survive. When it came to China's zero COVID-19  policy it meant food insecurity for the people of Shanghai. Those who refused to get vaccinated in Austria were subjected to lockdown. The irrational fear and demonization of the unvaccinated was just another case of panic influencing behavior. The vaccinated can still spread the virus, so the vaccine mandates did not matter. Lockdowns did not contribute to stopping the pandemic. What got the crisis under control was reaching a point of hybrid immunity and vaccines.COVID-19 will not disappear or  be eliminated by lockdowns. Quarantines and viral testing are better approaches. Quarantines take individuals who were sick or exposed and separates them. The term should not be confused with lockdown, which stops daily operations or activities. Efficient viral testing would have prevented much of the disturbances that followed. Social distancing in public accommodations made more sense than shutting down various public places. Instead certain nations chose a lockdown policy when studies have show they were not effective. John Hopkins University concluded in 2022 that lockdowns did not reduce COVID-19 mortality. The spread of the disease was only minimally reduced. Lockdowns were evidence of failed public health policy. The unfortunate fact is that governments and the biomedical establishment will not learn from their mistakes. The world remains unequipped to fight the next pandemic.         

The Story of The Freedmen's Bank

 

The Story of The Freedmen's Bank is a documentary presentation produced by the US Department of the Treasury. The Freedmen's Bank was the creation of abolitionists, philanthropists, and business leaders. The formerly enslaved and African American veterans needed a secure place for their money. Those who had been enslaved so long never made a wage or obtained a bank account. Much of the foundation of racial inequality was that wealth was concentrated in white communities. Labor exploitation through slavery and the working class created the basis of economic inequality in America. The bank was created in 1865 and one of the last important acts done by the Abraham Lincoln administration. According to records the total amount of deposits were estimated to be about $57 million ( today that would be $115 billion ). The wealth was lost due to government corruption and a change in the Freedmen's Bank's charter. The banking panic of 1873 and mismanagement resulted in the bank's demise. The failure of the Freedmen's Bank demonstrates the weaknesses of capitalism and the US government's dishonesty when it comes to confronting economic inequality.   

President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Wants To Extends His Rule

 

President Teodoro Obiang Nguema is planning on  extending  his rule. Since 1979 he as ruled Equatorial Guinea. Only two presidents have held office and President Nguema came to power through a coup. Equatorial Guinea gained its independence from Spain in 1968. The first president was Nguema's uncle Francisco Macias Nguema. The country has been under the rule of one family for 43 years. The elections that have happened since have been questioned by international observers. Equatorial Guinea has the benefit of oil reserves and production. Although it oil wealth is known, the population still remains in poverty. Political repression and limited press freedom have left the public frustrated. Nepotism has become another concern as his son might be a potential successor. The political opposition does not have the ability to remove him from office. Simultaneously, the demand for non-Russian oil puts President Nguema in a stronger position. Casting a ballot means little in a regime that is authoritarian, but has democratic institutions. Equatorial Guinea closed its borders ahead of elections. The reason stated by the government was to prevent destabilization from mercenaries or foreign powers.  Closing the border during elections harms commerce which Cameroon, Chad, and Gabon are dependent on. The measure is not targeted at merchants, rather it is designed to control the movement of citizens of Equatorial Guinea. Those who flee the country could spread information about abuses to the world.  Equatorial Guinea is a major force in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community. Over the decades there has been significant investment in infrastructure. However, the limited amounts of wealth distribution have undermined that accomplishment. Many have suspected that most of the profits from oil have gone to enriching the Nguema family. All the accusations of corruption the government has denied. The list of crimes has become more extensive over the years. Torture and violence by the state security apparatus has occurred. This makes protest or armed uprising impossible to do in Equatorial Guinea.    

Discontent Among US Railway Workers

 

A potential railway strike was avoided in the United States. While the focus was an extension of supply chain issues and the loss of billions dollars, the complaints of workers remained ignored. Employees do not randomly go on strike unless there is a decline in working conditions. Railroad corporations have failed their employees in the US freight industry. BNSF and Union Pacific have seen immense profits, but workers have not seen dramatic improvement. Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate has done well considering the current economic condition in the US. The combination of labor cuts, reduced compensation, and grueling precision scheduling systems has caused discord among workers. On call scheduling systems and limited time off has added to the frustration. If US railway labor unions cannot get an agreement that solves all these problems, then this can happen again in the next few years. Paid time off and  changing the scheduling policies are the only solutions. The Railway Labor Act was designed to allow corporations and unions to discuss concerns and grievances  to avert a nation wide labor incident. If abuses still happen there may be no other choice but to do a mass strike. Labor unions should not settle for an agreement that does not get to the route of labor disputes. Laws should protect workers, not corporate power. A total of twelve labor unions have been negotiating contracts.     

The Rajapaksas Could Be Losing Their Grip on Power

 

Resignations, protests, and economic crisis is disrupting Sri Lanka. These challenges highlight long term problems the country has faced over the past decades. The Rajapaksas under these conditions might fall from power. Their power is comparable to the Sharifs or Shinawatras. Pakistan and Thailand have powerful political families. The case with both those countries is that they eventually are forced from power. The pattern might be repeating in Sri Lanka. The population does not want a dynasty ruling for decades. That model of political system is only tolerated when material conditions are high. Now Sri Lanka faces inflation and supply shortages. The cost of living has increased dramatically. The Rajapaksas could face criminal charges related to corruption. Gotabaya Rajapaksa the former president, could be charged for graft. More charges could be made related to the civil war, which ended in 2009. The abuse of the Tamils has been given more focus. The war against the Tamil Tigers did result in atrocities that have not been fully investigated. At the moment most of the Rajapaksas remain in the country. If political and economic issue continue to grow, their hold on the system will weaken. The question of war crimes and corruption might force some of the Rajapaksas to flee. Gotabaya left and remains in Singapore. Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned as prime minister, but still remains active in politics. Basil Rajapaksa attempted to escape and was apprehended by immigration authorities at an airport. 

President Obama Proposes Cuts To Social Security (2011)

 

President Barack Obama during his administration proposed cuts to social security. The justification was that there was a concern over the budget and the debt limit . Social security does not constitute a large portion of America's national debt. Nor does it impact the national deficit. This is a myth that is used to cut social services for American citizens. Cutting social security would cause devastating social and economic consequences. Spending on the military and corporate tax breaks continue to be the culprits in America's economic instability. The 2008 economic meltdown was the product of unrestrained corporate avarice and limited banking regulations. Both parties continue to make attempts at cutting social security. President Obama making this proposal was taking a risk considering he would be running for re-election in 2012. Many questioned his liberal credentials with such a proposal. His administration was more politically centrist, rather than leftist. President Obama's economic policies were still mostly based in neoliberalism.   

F.W. de Klerk's Last Public Statement (2021)

 F.W. de Klerk (1936-2021) released a  public statement before his death. The last president of Apartheid South Africa made an apology for the damage the system caused to the African, Colored, and Indian population.The question remains why this was not done earlier. Guilt could have been the motivation. The regime killed and abused the black majority in order to preserve the political and economic dominance of whites. The National Party continued to be active even with the end of the Apartheid regime in 1994. The party would dissolve in 1997. It then formed into the New National Party in attempt to improve its image. Klerk won a Nobel Prize, which he shared with Nelson Mandela. Although seen as a peaceful mediator , he did not confront the numerous human rights abuses by the security services  during his presidency. The public statement he released expresses the need to uphold the constitution and maintain the independence of the judiciary. The need for job creation and economic empowerment is critical to South Africa's future. F.W. de Klerk discussion on the rule of law seemed contradictory. He presided over a regime that did not acknowledge it and was not happy that the Truth and Reconciliation Commission formed to investigate abuses. F.W. de Klerk will remain a controversial figure in South African history.       

Demonstrations and Civil Unrest Occur After Former South African President Jacob Zuma Is Jailed

 

President Jacob Zuma has been jailed. The accusations of corruption brought criminal charges. The aftermath was that demonstrations broke out from the verdict. An appeal was denied was denied by the high court. Currently, demonstrations are being held in various cities and townships. The military has been deployed to deal with the violence and reported looting in the country. His support among the rural poor is strong and Zuma does retain loyal followers. President Zuma was a dominant force in South African politics. He was charged wit contempt of court for refusing to appear to answer questions about corruption during his administration from 2009 to 2018. The reason Zuma has support is that he was willing to programs of economic distribution . This is very popular among South Africans who experience the harsh conditions of economic inequality. The apartheid regime impoverished the black majority and the ANC has failed to reverse the damage of the past. President Jacob Zuma promised a change that was refreshing to young voters living in poverty. The reason supports still follow him was that he was actually trying to improve the conditions of South Africa. Despite charges related to money laundering, arms deals, and contempt of court many think this has a political motivation. The imprisonment of former Jacob Zuma will only divide the country more. 

Demonstrations Held in Colombia Over Tax Increase

 

Colombians are protesting  the government's attempts to increase taxes. The strain brought on by the pandemic and economic inequality has culminated in public discord. The Latin American nation has long struggled with civil war and narcoterrorism . The decision to raise taxes has caused much anger at the Ivan Duque administration. The demonstrations and failure to produce rational solutions could jeopardize President Duque's chances for reelection. Increasing taxes on food and utilities only harms the average citizen. Curfews and pandemic restrictions have only added to the public's frustration. The protesters have been peaceful, but law enforcement has not. The excessive use of force has gained international attention . The plan to balance the budget with tax hikes will not work when unemployment is high. The only result will be that those who have jobs will be taxed more. The employed could end up being impoverished from ineffective government policy. As economic contraction grows, Colombia becomes more desperate. Colombia needs to get financial assistance from other countries What Colombians need is some form of universal basic income to counter economic instability. The only way the economy can be fixed is eliminating the COVID-19 virus and increasing employment. If the tax hikes continue then more civil unrest will occur.