Earthquake Strike Myanmar and Thailand

 

Myanmar and Thailand have experienced devasting earthquakes. Natural disasters produce a series of long term problems for public health, infrastructure, and housing. Homelessness will increase as a result of destroyed buildings. The military regime in Myanmar has no plans to address the concern of people who lost their homes. Reports estimate that the deaths in Myanmar are 1,600. The number could increase as more debris is cleared. Thailand's capital was damaged from the earthquake. Roads and bridges were also destroyed from the natural disaster. Rebuilding infrastructure is going to require major investments. Myanmar and Thailand might struggle to generate the funds for reconstruction. The military regime also is hostile to external contact. Hospitals are overwhelmed with the injured. The earthquake reveals the need to engineer earthquake resistant buildings. The earthquake was so powerful that skyscrapers in Bangkok were mot spared. The reason Myanmar is so susceptible to earthquakes relates to its location. It is located on a convergence area of the Earth's four major tectonic plates. Myanmar rests on the Sagaing fault. This explains why Mandalay was hit with immense force. Buildings that are older are going to be more vulnerable to collapse. Thailand's older buildings do not meet the safety construction standard. Vigorous earthquake protection for buildings must be required by law. Although regulations do exist, it appears most were not followed in Thailand.    

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Has Fled Bangladesh

 

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has fled Bangladesh. Reports have suggested she has taken refuge in India. Demonstrations spread throughout Bangladesh due to the quota on government jobs. This became very contentious when positions were going to be reserved for relatives of veterans of the independence war. The quota seems to be for the younger generation, who never fought in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. A growing concern about nepotism and corruption was becoming part of the political discourse. Students are becoming the focal point of the protests. When they graduate, the expectation is they can compete for public sector jobs. Relatives of veterans are going to get an unfair advantage. The Supreme Court still supported the 5% government job reservation for the privileged. Even though they rejected the proposed increase their neutrality is being questioned. Prime Minister Sheik Hasina responded with crackdowns by law enforcement. The growing accusation is that the quota system was a means of rewarding those loyal to the Awami League. Bangladesh has seen economic growth, but this did not result in higher employment or  living standards. Students are particularly frustrated, because after attaining higher education employment is no present. Prime Minister Hasina did not address economic needs of the population. Imposing a curfew during protests caused her downfall. Instability in Bangladesh goes beyond its borders. India sees Bangladesh as an important ally.  Military coups over the years make Bangladesh's parliamentary system fragile. Coups occurred in 1975, 1981, 2007, 2009, and 2012. The recent coup is different. Refugees from Myanmar, instability in Pakistan, and the Taliban government in Afghanistan are going to be factors in Bangladesh. The military claims an interim government will be formed. The assertion was that Prime Minister Hasina resigned, but appears that she was forced from power. The protests are continuing despite her removal.    

Aung San Suu Kyi's imprisonment Location Unknown

 

The military dictatorship announced that Aung San Suu Kyi was relocated. Suu Kyi was in  prison, but was moved to the status of being under house arrest. Her location has not been made public.  The justification was that a heatwave could threaten the health of elderly prisoners. While it is dubious the military regime is concerned about human rights, other factors were considered. If Aung San Suu Kyi were to get ill the regime would be blamed. The condition of the prison and the medical staff are not documented. Reports of Aung San Suu Kyi's health suggest she is suffering from a number of conditions. What little information has been released is that she was dealing with  vomiting, dizziness, and possible gum disease. The 78 year old politician and activist has been denied medical treatment. If Aung San Suu Kyi dies in detention, the military will have made a martyr. This will only cause resistance to grow against the regime. The civil war the Myanmar is facing could intensify. Based on her current prison sentence, Suu Kyi's prison sentence is 27 years, when means that she would be more than 100 years old when released. The junta intends to have her perish in detention. The other possible plan is to keep her imprisoned until her political influence wanes. Aung San Suu Kyi is not the only one imprisoned. Citizens and political figures are being incarcerated for rejecting the military dictatorship. Aung San Suu Kyi's treatment reveals that Myanmar is transforming into an authoritarian police state. 

Aung San Suu Kyi's Prison Term Reduced By The Military Regime

 

Aung San Suu Kyi had  six years taken off her prison term. She still faces 25 years. The charges against her have no legal basis. The regime itself is criminal seeing as it seized power when it did not like the results of the elections.  The objective by the military government is to have her perish in confinement. The junta has claimed that 7,000 prisoners have been released. How long they remain free depends on the political conditions in Myanmar . Public discord is growing with the military junta announcing elections are postponed. Even if a full pardon was given to Suu Kyi , public rage would not dissipate. While Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned, fighting spreads to other regions. The 2021 coup has sparked rebellions that could turn into full scale civil war. Other countries remain silent about the situation. The EU countries have abandoned Suu Kyi due to the Rohingya ethnic conflict and Myanmar's growing relationship with China. The military can only imprison Aung San Suu Kyi, but execution would only case a larger revolt. The counter move is to extend the state of emergency. The military realizes that Aung San Suu Kyi is a popular political figure. Keeping her imprisoned they think will diminish the influence of the National League for Democracy. The longer Aung Suu Kyi remains in prison the more she will be seen as a symbol of resistance. The military might have united the citizens in ways former governments have not. The Burmese population are coming to a consensus the military should not rule.    

The State of Thai-Burmese Relations

 

The military regime in Myanmar has caused a change in relations with Thailand. The influx of refugees in Thailand has also impacted domestic politics of Thailand. Both countries are under the influence of the military having involvement in political affairs. Thailand had a military coup in 2014 and Myanmar's democratically elected government was deposed in 2021. While Thailand did have elections, the military influence was still present. What happens in Thailand's elections will have an effect on Myanmar. The policy is to support the military regime of Min Aung Hlaing. Both governments are dependent on one another for survival. The case with Thailand is that political opposition has more freedom, but is not effective enough to make dramatic change. The Thai monarchy holds respect among the population and acts as a unifying force in the country. A military regime in Thailand would never try to abolish it, but for the most part it is ceremonial. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha realizes that the junta in Myanmar secures his position in Thailand. As Myanmar slides further into a state of civil war, the possibility of Thai intervention becomes greater. Thailand might not want more refugees to come into their country. Thailand's Myanmar policy increases tension with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Myanmar and Thailand could become isolated in their own region due to certain actions taken domestically and beyond their borders. Depending on what government is in power in Thailand, the Min Aung Hlaing regime has a close ally.  

Ne Win Threatens Protesters (1988)

 

The military has dominated Myanmar throughout its recent history. Ne Win  had control of the country since 1962, but by the late 1980s his grip was slipping. The year 1988 saw a mass uprising against the regime. Ne Win made a notorious speech in response to the challenge to his rule. The military would use extreme force he asserted. The police  Ne Win expressed were more lenient . The army would not as articulated "shoot up in the sky." The Burma Socialist Programme Party was losing legitimacy among the public. Protests did happen before 1988, but the 8888 uprising was more massive. Previous protests mostly were done by workers and students. The 8888 uprising involved people from various sections of the Burmese public. The state responded with violence. Ne Win was forced into resigning and then it triggered another coup by the State Law and Order Restoration Council. The total deaths are not known, but Ne Win never was criminally charged for the abuses of his regime. Ne Win would have some influence in the new military junta. Around the 1990s, his influenced waned and he was put under house arrest. Ne Win was never punished for the state violence that occurred for 26 years. 

The Min Aung Hlaing Regime Extends Aung San Suu Kyi's Jail Sentence

 

The military government of Myanmar has extended Aung San Suu Kyi's jail sentence. The Min Aung Hlaing regime wants to remain in power and to do so it requires to stop all political opposition. The National League of Democracy won the elections, but the military objected to the results. Since 2021 Min Aung Hlaing has manipulated the State Administration Council. Combined with being commander-in-chief of the Defense Forces, this gives him vast amounts of political power. Suu Kyi is the victim of political persecution. The National League of Democracy leaders also face imprisonment. What is going on is nothing more than a show trial. Myanmar has again become a pariah, with certain countries imposing sanctions. This has done little to undermine the military regime. Hlaing might be using Suu Kyi as an example to frighten the people resisting his rule. A resistance has been ongoing with certain ethnic groups taking up arms against the government. Min Aung Hlaing wants to crush revolts and eliminate armed groups. The desire became so extreme that this resulted in the violence against the Rohingya. The crisis can be described as ethnic cleansing and some would argue possible  genocide. Hlaing's involvement has been extensive in the human rights violations of Myanmar's ethnic groups. Suu Kyi's situation has reverted back to what it was in the 1990s. Arrest and detainment due to her political beliefs. The attempt to build a democratic system has failed. Just like in Thailand, Pakistan , Nigeria, and Egypt the military has too much control over the government. Myanmar continues to struggle with the military taking over government. Suu Kyi will either need to find a means of escape or live the rest of her life imprisoned.    

Aung San Suu Kyi Has Been Sentenced By The Military Regime

 

The military regime has sentenced Aung San Suu Kyi. She faced a total of 11 charges, all which she denies. Her trial is not about wrong doing. It is an attempt for the military junta to neutralize its long time adversary . Suu Kyi's government was deposed by a coup. The legal basis for the trial is weak, because power was taken by extralegal means. The military regime has engaged in violence against protesters and this action will only cause more demonstrations. The charges directed at her include corruption, violating COVID-19 restrictions, and inciting violence. Prior to this, Suu Kyi was once under house arrest. The National League for Democracy  won the elections, but the military took power. Just like in 1990, whenever civilian administrations win elections the military reacts. Suu Kyi's lawyers are trying to prevent her from being imprisoned for life. Justice is not possible in a regime that has proven to be criminal. The population will no longer tolerate abuse and a disregard for human rights. Myanmar's actions may cause it to be isolated in Asia. Citizens could start armed resistance, if protests are met with more brutal crackdowns. Combined with the ethnic tensions in Myanmar the military  continues to make more enemies. The one foe that they cannot defeat has been Aung San Suu Kyi. Imprisonment is a method of stopping her from being a major political force. The increase in repression only makes the NLD  more popular. Although Suu Kyi's reputation was damaged by the Rohingya crisis, she still has a large amount of support. 

A Military Coup Has Occurred in Myanmar

 

Myanmar is in a state of emergency, with the military once more seizing  power. The military insisted this was a response to accusations of fraud in the elections. Aung San Suu Kyi has once more been detained along with other senior officials. It appears that the military wants to overturn the results of the general election and impose resurrect the military dictatorship. This is not the first time this has happened. The National League of Democracy did win the general election back in 1990. The military then launched a coup. The NLD became the ruling party of the country starting in 2015. They had a majority of seats in parliament. The military claims it will hold on to power for one year. Similar to Thailand, the military has large amounts of influence over government. The experiment in developing a democratic system  that began in 2011 appears to be coming to an end. Myanmar already has ethnic conflict and might be on the brink of civil war. The return to military rule will certainly cause some from of reaction from the public. This could either take the form of mass demonstrations or armed resistance. There are multiple armed groups in the country either fighting the military or seeking to create independent states. Myanmar may require a federal system to address issues related to regional and racial tensions. The Rohingya crisis demonstrates that just having elections or democratic government does not eliminate oppression. The NLD  allowed the military to wage war on an ethnic group, because it could have cost them politically with  the Buddhists in the Rakhine state. The only way the military regime will be defeated is through unified action of all ethnic groups and regions. However, political and ethnic divisions may be too vast to form coordinated mass resistance .