Mahamat Deby Consolidates Power In Chad

Chad held a  presidential election. The outcome was as most observers predicted with military ruler Mahamat Deby winning most of the vote. The legitimacy has been questioned by political opposition. Chad is transforming into a country of dynastic rule. Although a military regime it has similarities to Togo and Gabon. One family is going to rule Chad for a number of years. If Idriss Deby was not killed by rebels he would still be president. The rule of the Deby's began in 1990. Chad continues to be an ally of France. However, with the French exit from Mali and Niger a void will grow. Chad could become a more powerful regional player in the Sahel. President Mahamat Deby might establish closer diplomatic relations with Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali. A common enemy of rebel groups and terrorist organization would bring these countries together in an alliance. According to the results Mahamat won 61.3 % of the vote. The dispute was that the elections were not free or fair. African Union observers were not present. President Mahamat Deby does not have absolute control. He remains reliant on a ruling coalition. The military has immense influence over government. Algeria and Egypt also have this obstacle and at times coups occurred. If Mahamat maintains the support of the military his leadership will be secured. The 2022 crackdown forced some Chadians to flee abroad. Those suspected of involvement  in the assassination of Idriss Deby are among the Chadians that left. Most assume that foreign policy and internal matters will remain the same. Developments in Sudan and the relations with France will force a change in direction. Chad's transformation into a dynastic based system of government is the most noticeable.  

 

Kim Ju-ae And North Korea

 

Kim Ju-ae  is the daughter of  supreme leader Kim Jong Un. It is assumed that the head of state has three children. They rare make public appearances. Kim Ju-ae made was first seen in public in 2023. It was at a missile launch, which is not common. Images of Kim Jong Un's kids are rare. Not being seen in public could be a security measure. Kim Ju-ae being seen with her father makes some observers speculate about her being a future successor. The public appearances are more than just for propaganda. The image of a happy family can be useful to the regime. The Kim family has ruled North Korea since 1948. To a degree it is more of a dynastic monarchy, rather than a one party communist state. The Kim family does not consider itself royalty and never officially declared the government to be. The office of supreme leader is inherited. While Kim Ju-ae is still a child, Kim Jong Un could be positioning her to be the next supreme leader. The complications from this could be from siblings or a military that wants to takeover. Transitions of power might become more unstable as time goes on. If there was a collapse of North Korea, then refugees would be the result. South Korea and Japan would not be willing to provide safety. If Kim Ju-ae does become supreme leader in the future, uncertainty remains about domestic affairs and North Korea's foreign policy. 

Aung San Suu Kyi's Prison Term Reduced By The Military Regime

 

Aung San Suu Kyi had  six years taken off her prison term. She still faces 25 years. The charges against her have no legal basis. The regime itself is criminal seeing as it seized power when it did not like the results of the elections.  The objective by the military government is to have her perish in confinement. The junta has claimed that 7,000 prisoners have been released. How long they remain free depends on the political conditions in Myanmar . Public discord is growing with the military junta announcing elections are postponed. Even if a full pardon was given to Suu Kyi , public rage would not dissipate. While Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned, fighting spreads to other regions. The 2021 coup has sparked rebellions that could turn into full scale civil war. Other countries remain silent about the situation. The EU countries have abandoned Suu Kyi due to the Rohingya ethnic conflict and Myanmar's growing relationship with China. The military can only imprison Aung San Suu Kyi, but execution would only case a larger revolt. The counter move is to extend the state of emergency. The military realizes that Aung San Suu Kyi is a popular political figure. Keeping her imprisoned they think will diminish the influence of the National League for Democracy. The longer Aung Suu Kyi remains in prison the more she will be seen as a symbol of resistance. The military might have united the citizens in ways former governments have not. The Burmese population are coming to a consensus the military should not rule.    

The State of Thai-Burmese Relations

 

The military regime in Myanmar has caused a change in relations with Thailand. The influx of refugees in Thailand has also impacted domestic politics of Thailand. Both countries are under the influence of the military having involvement in political affairs. Thailand had a military coup in 2014 and Myanmar's democratically elected government was deposed in 2021. While Thailand did have elections, the military influence was still present. What happens in Thailand's elections will have an effect on Myanmar. The policy is to support the military regime of Min Aung Hlaing. Both governments are dependent on one another for survival. The case with Thailand is that political opposition has more freedom, but is not effective enough to make dramatic change. The Thai monarchy holds respect among the population and acts as a unifying force in the country. A military regime in Thailand would never try to abolish it, but for the most part it is ceremonial. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha realizes that the junta in Myanmar secures his position in Thailand. As Myanmar slides further into a state of civil war, the possibility of Thai intervention becomes greater. Thailand might not want more refugees to come into their country. Thailand's Myanmar policy increases tension with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Myanmar and Thailand could become isolated in their own region due to certain actions taken domestically and beyond their borders. Depending on what government is in power in Thailand, the Min Aung Hlaing regime has a close ally.  

Ne Win Threatens Protesters (1988)

 

The military has dominated Myanmar throughout its recent history. Ne Win  had control of the country since 1962, but by the late 1980s his grip was slipping. The year 1988 saw a mass uprising against the regime. Ne Win made a notorious speech in response to the challenge to his rule. The military would use extreme force he asserted. The police  Ne Win expressed were more lenient . The army would not as articulated "shoot up in the sky." The Burma Socialist Programme Party was losing legitimacy among the public. Protests did happen before 1988, but the 8888 uprising was more massive. Previous protests mostly were done by workers and students. The 8888 uprising involved people from various sections of the Burmese public. The state responded with violence. Ne Win was forced into resigning and then it triggered another coup by the State Law and Order Restoration Council. The total deaths are not known, but Ne Win never was criminally charged for the abuses of his regime. Ne Win would have some influence in the new military junta. Around the 1990s, his influenced waned and he was put under house arrest. Ne Win was never punished for the state violence that occurred for 26 years. 

Paul Henri Damiba Deposed

 

Burkina Faso is becoming more unstable. Another coup has occurred, which forced Paul Henri Damiba to resign. Clinging to power would mean civil war. This is something Burkina Faso cannot withstand seeing as their is an insurgency. The armed groups are thought to be terrorist organizations. These forces are active in the north and east of Burkina Faso. Mediation efforts are underway to form a new government. The military will still have all of the power with Ibrahim Traore as head of state. The constitution remains suspended. If the constitution remains suspended, then there is no legal means of challenging the military regime. The transitional government no longer exists. By now, most observers can see that the military will be in power for sometime. The French embassy was attacked by protesters thinking they were giving aid to Damiba. France also has a military base in Burkina Faso. He was only in power for eight months and there is little information about his European connections. The coup appears to be an internal matter, not a foreign operation of regime change. The likely tools of regime change are armed groups that are associated with ISIS or al-Qaeda. A country going through a series of leaders shows a lack of stability. The lack of security and activity of terrorist organizations only gives the military regime justification for anti-democratic measures. Condemnation from the African Union and ECOWAS has not changed Burkina Faso's policy positions. Part of the agreement of Damiba's departure was that he will not be charged with crimes against the state.    

The Min Aung Hlaing Regime Extends Aung San Suu Kyi's Jail Sentence

 

The military government of Myanmar has extended Aung San Suu Kyi's jail sentence. The Min Aung Hlaing regime wants to remain in power and to do so it requires to stop all political opposition. The National League of Democracy won the elections, but the military objected to the results. Since 2021 Min Aung Hlaing has manipulated the State Administration Council. Combined with being commander-in-chief of the Defense Forces, this gives him vast amounts of political power. Suu Kyi is the victim of political persecution. The National League of Democracy leaders also face imprisonment. What is going on is nothing more than a show trial. Myanmar has again become a pariah, with certain countries imposing sanctions. This has done little to undermine the military regime. Hlaing might be using Suu Kyi as an example to frighten the people resisting his rule. A resistance has been ongoing with certain ethnic groups taking up arms against the government. Min Aung Hlaing wants to crush revolts and eliminate armed groups. The desire became so extreme that this resulted in the violence against the Rohingya. The crisis can be described as ethnic cleansing and some would argue possible  genocide. Hlaing's involvement has been extensive in the human rights violations of Myanmar's ethnic groups. Suu Kyi's situation has reverted back to what it was in the 1990s. Arrest and detainment due to her political beliefs. The attempt to build a democratic system has failed. Just like in Thailand, Pakistan , Nigeria, and Egypt the military has too much control over the government. Myanmar continues to struggle with the military taking over government. Suu Kyi will either need to find a means of escape or live the rest of her life imprisoned.    

Choe Son Hui Has Become Foreign Minister of North Korea

 

North Korea has selected a new foreign minister. Choe Son Hui will now have the position in the DPRK. The move comes as tensions are rising in Asia. Choe has experience in the diplomatic service. She was one of the major figures in nuclear negotiations  with the United States. Those talks have not advanced the reduction of tension between the two countries. North Korea could easily be caught up in the US-China competition in the Pacific. North Korea has currently embarked on an arms buildup in response to regional developments. The country has conducted nuclear tests and it should be assumed at some point it will obtain an arsenal. The reason for the nuclear program is to deter US military action. North Korea might be a target for US regime change operations. Sanctions have not stopped North Korea's nuclear programs or arms buildup. The Asia pivot policy has worsened relations between China and the US. North Korea can exploit this situation by showing it is of vital interest to China. The foreign policy vision that Choe Son Hui has is not exactly clear. Considering that she was part of earlier talks there might be a chance for an agreement. The nuclear envoy to the US did not produce favorable results. One objective of Choe Son Hui could be to get the United Nations sanctions lifted. One demand that was made last year was an end to in her words "hostile US policy." This was in response to military drills conducted with South Korea. Choe Son Hui is the first female foreign minister of North Korea. The rise indicates that women are getting more power in the regime.

Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Wins The Philippines Presidential Election

 

The Marcos family appears to have returned to prominence in Philippine politics. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has won the presidency. Certain observers might have been shocked by the development, but the result could have been predicted. The reason for the return could be voters might be too young to remember the dictatorship under his father. Other voters could have some form of nostalgia for the past. The transition to a democratic system was turbulent in the 1990s. During the campaign Marcos Jr. did not distance himself from the controversial legacy of his father's authoritarian rule. The general frustration the public has with corruption and the political establishment could have resulted in this election result. The democratic system has not been able to combat economic challenges, violence from the drug trade, or reduce corruption. The promises of the 1986 People Power Revolution remain unfulfilled. The fear among human rights groups is the return of oppressive government. What policies will be enacted remains unclear at the moment. 

A Coup In Burkina Faso

 

Burkina Faso has fallen to a military coup. This is part of a political trend happening across the continent . This is not the first time the country has experienced military takeover or attempts. An attempted coup happened in 2015. The leader of the takeover is Paul Henri Damiba . Gunfights had taken place in the capital of Ouagadougu. Monday it was reported the military was removing the civilian government. The group of soldiers are part of a political  organization  known as the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration. Burkina Faso faces challenges from terrorism, French interference, and ineffective government. President Kabore who was deposed in the coup failed to address the issues regarding the anti- government protests. Since 2014 Burkina Faso has struggled to be stable after the fall of Blaise Compaore. Roch Kabore was elected president in 2015. He did not make changes required to have a stable political atmosphere. Frustration grew among the citizens and the military. Now the parliament and constitution are dissolved.      

Aung San Suu Kyi Has Been Sentenced By The Military Regime

 

The military regime has sentenced Aung San Suu Kyi. She faced a total of 11 charges, all which she denies. Her trial is not about wrong doing. It is an attempt for the military junta to neutralize its long time adversary . Suu Kyi's government was deposed by a coup. The legal basis for the trial is weak, because power was taken by extralegal means. The military regime has engaged in violence against protesters and this action will only cause more demonstrations. The charges directed at her include corruption, violating COVID-19 restrictions, and inciting violence. Prior to this, Suu Kyi was once under house arrest. The National League for Democracy  won the elections, but the military took power. Just like in 1990, whenever civilian administrations win elections the military reacts. Suu Kyi's lawyers are trying to prevent her from being imprisoned for life. Justice is not possible in a regime that has proven to be criminal. The population will no longer tolerate abuse and a disregard for human rights. Myanmar's actions may cause it to be isolated in Asia. Citizens could start armed resistance, if protests are met with more brutal crackdowns. Combined with the ethnic tensions in Myanmar the military  continues to make more enemies. The one foe that they cannot defeat has been Aung San Suu Kyi. Imprisonment is a method of stopping her from being a major political force. The increase in repression only makes the NLD  more popular. Although Suu Kyi's reputation was damaged by the Rohingya crisis, she still has a large amount of support. 

Chile Will Be Getting A New Constituition

 

Chile will be getting a new constitution . There has not been a new constitution since the Augusto  Pinochet regime.  For 40 years Chile was following this legal document made by the right-wing authoritarian government. The Chilean public voted in a referendum for the change. Questions remain about what the new constitution will be like. Major political transformations are happening in the country. Chile has for the first time  held elections for regional governors. The country could be shifting more in a political leftist orientation. Chile for a long period of time was more of a conservative leaning government in Latin America. That is why the newly elected assembly members rise was a shock to the establishment. The failure to implement needed reforms has generated much discontent. Combined with the current economic decline and growing inequality in the region this change was a longtime coming. The new assembly has elected more women and indigenous people than in previous years. These elections will have an impact on the race for the presidency. The new constitution will finally put an end to the ghosts of the Cold War and the Pinochet regime. The new constitution will act as a foundation for a state that values human rights. If the assembly is successful, then Chile may be able to make progress in fighting longtime economic and social issues.