Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah Elected President of Namibia

 

Namibia has elected its first female president. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. According to the electoral commission  Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah got 57% of the vote. Accusations of electoral irregularities have been made by the political opposition. The Independent Patriots for Change are attempting to challenge the results in court. It is unlikely that the ICP will overturn the election results. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is a veteran of the liberation struggle against Apartheid South Africa's occupation of Namibia. Active in SWAPO's  youth league, she dreamed of the day of Namibia being free from white minority rule. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah has held a number of government posts related to foreign affairs and information. She has been a women's rights advocate and getting the Combating of Domestic Violence Act legislation passed. Her credentials and experience indicate a leader who is going to be capable. Yet, there still are pressing economic concerns. Namibia is classified as an upper  middle income country. This is based on data from the World Bank. The promises of economic transformation have been made, but never materialize. Growing youth unemployment is another concern.  Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah and SWAPO must address this, or else voter support will be reduced. Discussion of a run off election has surfaced. The Namibian Supreme Court could make the determination about the legitimacy of ICP claims. SWAPO cannot afford to rest on past deeds, when a younger population was not yet born to witness them. Maintaining political support requires change in  strategy.  

The United States Presidential Election Results

 

Former President Donald Trump has been elected the 47th president of the United States. Kamala Harris won 244 electoral votes. Donald Trump obtained at total of 277. The 2024 US presidential election was unique. President Joseph Biden was forced out of the race and Kamala Harris became the nominee. There was not open primary or an open convention. The Democratic Party sets the rules on how they select their nominee, but some question the process during this election cycle. Kamala Harris in her first attempt to run for president was not successful. The failure to address Israel's wars on Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran alienated the Arab American community. Economic factors were a large indicator of the election outcome. Inflation, layoffs, and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic damaged her campaign. Combined with a housing crisis and an increase in migrants frustrations  grew among the public. Donald Trump was able to exploit public discord. The criminal cases against him did not end his presidential campaign. Instead it energized his base. Kamala Harris ran a basic anti-Trump platform, but more detailed policies were needed. The error was seeking to replace the progressive vote with suburban women. Simultaneously, Donald Trump was able get more Latino and African American voters. The gender divide was evident. More men voted for Donald Trump. As the United States becomes more diverse, elections are going to get more complicated. Polls have the tendency to view groups as a monolith. Those who were Democrats defected to voting for Donald Trump. The 2024 US presidential election was in a way a referendum on the Biden administration's performance. Kamala Harris could not distance herself from his policies. The failure to address economic, international affairs, and domestic issues  resulted in Kamala Harris' loss. Donald Trump now is the second president to win two non-consecutive terms. Grover Cleveland first did this in the US presidential  election of 1892. 

South Sudanese Elections Are Postponed

 

South Sudan will postpone its elections. The government asserts it is to take a proper census, register political parties, and develop a new constitution. These statements are legitimate measures needed for functional government. The concern is that President Salva Kiir is using this time to extend his administration. The elections are now set to be held in December of 2026. The civil war that was waged for five years against Riek Machar ended in 2018. The conflict left 400,000 dead. The argument is that some authoritarianism will keep South Sudan from balkanizing. The civil war in Sudan also is a factor. The war there has effected oil exports, which South Sudan is dependent. Political opposition most likely will not be able to operate under a new national security act. Discontent among civil servants has emerged due to missed pay. The outcome of elections can be predicted. President Salva Kiir has been in power since 2011 and could remain for decades. Leaders such as Paul Kagame, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo,  Paul Biya, Denis Sassou Nguesso,  and Yoweri Museveni have been fixtures in African politics. The UN special envoy for South Sudan stated that the country was not ready for elections. The United Nations should not be dictating what South Sudan should do. The role of the UN is do conflict resolution and facilitate peace negations. Elections could be posted further into 2027. This effort is to extend President Salva Kiir's rule. South Sudan since its independence has known only one leader. If economic conditions become worse and discord is ignored South Sudan could fall into another civil war.   

The Culprits Involved In The Trump Assassination Attempts

 

Former President Donald Trump has experienced two attempted assassinations. The culprits were Thomas Matthew Crooks and Ryan Routh. These two had no connection with one another. Thomas Crooks is more mysterious considering there is little information on him. So far, the FBI and Secret Service have not discovered a motive. The investigation is ongoing and Crooks was shot by Secret Service. Ryan Rough remains in custody after the assassination attempt in Florida. Ryan's motivation could be connected to his support for Ukraine. At onetime Routh was a supporter of Donald Trump. However, Rayan Routh became vexed that President Donald Trump was favoring ending the Russia-Ukraine War. Rough was active in recruiting fighters to the front in Eastern Europe. More information has to gathered as the case against Ryan Rough builds. Gun violence has become so prevalent presidential candidates cannot be protected. Despite this, neither candidate has proposed more strict gun control legislation. Vice President Kamala Harris mentioned during the debate that she owned a gun. This should have been condemned by gun  control activists. Ryan Rough had a criminal record and was still able to get firearms. Thomas Crooks did not have a criminal record, which made him harder to track. The assassination attempt would be his first and last crime. Political factionalism and vitriolic rhetoric is creating a dangerous atmosphere in American politics. Mass media also contributes to the growing distrust among American citizens. What Crooks knew it died with him. Ryan Routh will be undergoing a criminal interrogation. Routh's lawyers might try to use an insanity defense to avoid the death penalty or a long prison sentence. No trial date has been set.    

Tulsi Gabbard Is Providing Assistance To The Trump Campaign

 

Tulsi Gabbard is now assisting the Trump campaign. She is involved in Donald Trump's debate preparation. The significance of this is the phenomenon of former Democrats defecting to Trump's base. Tulsi Gabbard left the Democratic Party and was seeking the presidency in 2020. At one of the debates in 2020 Tusli had a contentious debate with Kamala Harris over her role in the criminal justice system. This might explain why Tulsi Gabbard decided to provide her services to the Trump campaign. Gabbard's other motivation could be related to being put on the terrorist watch list with the TSA. While not confirmed, this could have a political motivation. The theory is challenged by the fact that Tulsi Gabbard endorsed President Biden in 2020. The shift away from the Democratic Party demonstrates a growing frustration with the leadership. Voters are not seeing results and have become  disillusioned. Tulsi Gabbard's transformation is not different from what regular voters are going through. The Democratic Party has to change its strategy to stop defections. The political centrists and corporate democrats are causing many voters to either switch affiliation or not participate. Supporters of Gabbard might become Trump supporters due to her involvement.      

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro Gets 51% of The Vote

 

The National Electoral Council stated that President Nicolas Maduro won 51 % of the vote. The NEC also revealed that Edmundo Gonzalez got 44%. The opposition has made the claim of electoral fraud, but has not produced evidence. The Maduro administration has faced external inference and internal discord. Much of the internal dispute comes from right-wing political factions. President Nicolas Maduro's administration has presided over a struggling economy. The reason is sanctions imposed by other countries. Venezuela has some of the largest oil reserves in the world. This makes the country a target of larger powers. Nicolas Maduro wants to continue the revolutionary Bolivarianism of Hugo Chavez. The challenge is he lacks the charisma and skill of the former president. What works in his favor is survival. President Maduro has been able to avoid being victim of regime change or internal intrigue. The administration has been in power 11 years. The reason Venezuela survives is because it allies itself with other leftist governments. Nicaragua and Cuba are two countries that are essential to Venezuela's regional diplomatic ties. Brazil and Colombia are also going to become more important to Venezuela overtime. The best chance of fighting sanctions is expanding connections with African and Asian nations. Turbulence in the Middle East could elevate the importance Venezuelan oil. The US might have to normalize relations and lift sanctions to get access to it. President Nicolas Maduro still has to navigate regional hostility, threats from the EU, and right-wing plots.      

The Status of The 2024 Trump Presidential Campaign

 

The former president Donald Trump has been convicted on 34 counts. This is the first time a former president has been convicted. Many legal questions have been raised. The concern is that the Trump trials creates a system of  using the law to go after political opponents. Donald Trump's most egregious crimes are not even the focus of these trials. There are  indications that he has not paid income taxes for a number of years. During the 2020 presidential election Donald Trump was attempting to reverse the outcome and was engaged  voter suppression. Accusations of racial discrimination have been documented in relation to real estate business.  The classified documents case remains unresolved. Despite these controversies and criminal charges the Trump campaign is gaining momentum. Fund raising has not been harmed by the the Trump trials. According to the RNC and Trump campaign an estimated 300 million has been acquired. The trials have not negatively effected Trump in the polls. The reason Trump maintains a lead is due to economics and immigration. Inflation continues to make the cost of living difficult. The American public wants a solution to migrants and refugees coming from the southern border. President Biden's limited response to the Israel-Hamas War has created more protests. The Biden administration is losing the youth, African American, and Latino vote, which are need to win in 2024. Former president Trump has not been sentenced. If he gets prison time, this will not help the Biden campaign. The appearance of jailing a political opponent demonstrates that the Democratic Party cannot win without intervention of the legal system. The trials should have happened after the 2024 election to prevent them from looking politically motivated. The Trump trials are now just empowering his presidential campaign.     

Claudia Sheinbaum Elected President of Mexico

 

Mexico has elected Claudia Sheinbaum as their next president. This is the first time in Mexico's history that they have elected a woman as head of state. While some celebrate the electoral victory, there are some harsh political realities. The border crisis is an ongoing challenge. Migrants and refugees cross in to Mexico from Central American countries. Mexico has a number of its citizens who leave the country. Crime and the violence of drug cartels are the biggest push factors. The high rates of femicide make Mexico unsafe for women.  Economic concerns are another. Mexico must do all that it can to stop migration and citizens from relocating. The reason Claudia Sheinbaum was able to get 60% of the vote was due to specific policies. The Morena Party puts emphasis on social welfare programs. This has helped a portion of the Mexican population get out of poverty. If Claudia Sheinbaum wants to have a successful administration this policy must continue. Sheinbaum has been involved in politics since the year 2000. She is not a new political figure, but offers the possibility of effective change. This is limited, because a Mexican president can only serve one term of six years. The Mexican Constitution imposed sexenio. The reason for this was to prevent presidents from becoming authoritarian. Claudia Sheinbaum cannot run for reelection in six years. A head of state cannot not make vast progress in a short period of time. Being a leftist, it is curious to see what her policies will be regarding Venezuela, Nicaragua, Colombia, Honduras,  and Cuba. The assumption Mexico will have enhanced diplomatic  relations with these countries. This complicated by the fact Mexico is an ally of the United States, a country seeking regime change in South American countries. President Claudia Sheinbaum will have to navigate the regional politics of Central and North America.  

Mahamat Deby Consolidates Power In Chad

Chad held a  presidential election. The outcome was as most observers predicted with military ruler Mahamat Deby winning most of the vote. The legitimacy has been questioned by political opposition. Chad is transforming into a country of dynastic rule. Although a military regime it has similarities to Togo and Gabon. One family is going to rule Chad for a number of years. If Idriss Deby was not killed by rebels he would still be president. The rule of the Deby's began in 1990. Chad continues to be an ally of France. However, with the French exit from Mali and Niger a void will grow. Chad could become a more powerful regional player in the Sahel. President Mahamat Deby might establish closer diplomatic relations with Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali. A common enemy of rebel groups and terrorist organization would bring these countries together in an alliance. According to the results Mahamat won 61.3 % of the vote. The dispute was that the elections were not free or fair. African Union observers were not present. President Mahamat Deby does not have absolute control. He remains reliant on a ruling coalition. The military has immense influence over government. Algeria and Egypt also have this obstacle and at times coups occurred. If Mahamat maintains the support of the military his leadership will be secured. The 2022 crackdown forced some Chadians to flee abroad. Those suspected of involvement  in the assassination of Idriss Deby are among the Chadians that left. Most assume that foreign policy and internal matters will remain the same. Developments in Sudan and the relations with France will force a change in direction. Chad's transformation into a dynastic based system of government is the most noticeable.  

 

Nikki Haley Ends Her Presidential Campaign

 

Nikki Haley has ended her presidential campaign. This means Donald Trump does not have an obstacle to the Republican presidential nomination. Haley's poor performance in Iowa and South Carolina indicated  the getting the Republican nomination was out of reach. The US in its 247 year history has never had a female president. It is unlikely that one would come from the Republican Party. The laws banning abortion and a general attack on women's rights has alienated women voters. Nikki Haley entering the presidential race was tainted by the fact she served as UN ambassador under the Trump administration. She attempted to present herself as an alternative to Biden and Trump. However, Nikki Haley's convictions are in alignment with the neoconservative political ideology. Haley insisted on staying in the race when the path to the nomination was not possible. Some Democrats voted for Nikki Haley. The strategy of reaching out to Democrats and independents has been done before. Donald Trump was able to get Democrats who previously voted for Obama in 2016. Nikki Haley could not replicate this method with success. Nikki Haley has not revealed whether or not she will endorse Donald Trump. President Biden responded by praising Nikki Haley. The reason for that statement is the political establishment does not want to see another Trump presidency. Political centrists of the Democratic Party would be satisfied with a Haley as long it was not Trump. Nikki Haley's loss demonstrates female politicians have little opportunities for advancement in the Republican Party.  

Senegal's Presidential Election Postponed

 

Senegal's presential election has been postponed. President Macky Sall stated the reason for the decision was related to the list of candidates. The dispute arose from the actions of the Constitutional Council . They excluded a number of opposition candidates. The legality of this is brought into question. While there are some qualifications candidates have to meet to run for office, it appears these actions are designed to favor President Macky Sall. Having free and fair elections is not possible, if citizens are not given options. The Senegalese Democratic Party did request the election to be postponed, so they could get Karim Wade to run. Wade was an opposition figure that was excluded. The PASTEF Party is the most vocal critic of the postponement of the presidential election. President Macky Sall expressed that he has no desire to run for a third term. The address to the public did not make mention what the new date for the  presidential election would be. President Macky Sall might be attempting to extend his term by extralegal means. Senegal currently has 20 candidates running for the office of president. There could be those who conspire to reduce competition by postponing the election. The announcement caused demonstrations to break out . Dakar is seeing a growing number of protests by Senegalese who feel the government is becoming quasi-authoritarian. Senegal's stable democratic structure shielded it from the turbulence of its neighbors. Depending of the actions of President Macky Sall, ECOWAS could get involved. The West African region is going through political transformation. Senegal is just one country undergoing change.    

Thaksin Shinawatra Returns To Thailand

 

The former prime minister has returned to Thailand. Thaksin Shinawatra has been in exile since the 2006 coup. Shortly after his arrival he was sent to prison. Reports now state that Thaksin suffered a medical emergency that required hospitalization. He faces charges of corruption, which Thaksin insists are politically motivated. The question remains how legitimate are the charges if they were made by a military government. Rumors have circulated that the former prime minister reach an agreement with the military establishment. The option available to him would be to seek a royal pardon. Thaksin does still have some political influence and imprisonment could have implications in future elections. The military  backed parties can always do a coup by stealth. Thaksin's businesses have been subject to scrutiny. The Advance Info Service contracts connection to the military indicated a monopoly run solely by the Shinawatra family. Telecommunications were not his only business ventures. Not all of his companies were successful, but the one that survived made him wealthy. The major crime he is accused of his hiding his assets. This indictment was made by the National Counter Corruption Commission. Thaksin Shinawatra  demonstrates that wealth has a negative effect on democratic institutions. His return does indicate a shift in Thailand's political atmosphere. However, many still remain in exile due to the military.   

President Erdogan Wins Another Five Year Term

 

President Erdogan was reelected president of Turkey. Despite the challenges from the earthquake and the civil war in Syria. What the recent developments show is that Erdogan will be a longtime presence in Turkish politics. The concern for Syrian refugees is being deported back to a war torn nation. Kurds still face considerable discrimination and the Erdogan administration has been known to have an anti-Kurdish sentiment. The emphasis on a conservative Islamic society, makes some concerned about the restriction of freedoms. Press freedom has been reduce for the past decade. Islamic nationalism is not enough to solve Turkey's domestic concerns. The earthquakes caused considerable damage and homelessness was a result of that. Infrastructure and economic stabilization should be priorities. Turkey is both a NATO member and has good relations with the Russian Federation. President Erdogan's policy is mediation as a solution to the Russia-Ukraine War. The direction of Turkey's foreign policy has made him a major international figure. Arabs of the Middle East do have a more pressing matter related to President Recep Erdogan's reelection. New Ottomanism shows that Turkey wants to have more influence in the Gulf region. This will not just be in the Middle East, but in North and East Africa. The new Turkish nationalism comes with a religious fervor and refusal to acknowledge past history. Turkey refuses to come to terms with the Armenian genocide. Turkey has long sought to be a part of the European Union, but authoritarian policies in the country prevent that. Considering disagreements related to the recognition of Cyprus and Sweden's entry into NATO EU membership remains stalled. President Erdogan is seeking more power both domestically and on the international stage. 

Brazil's 2022 Prsidential Election

 

Brazil's presidential election has taken a fascinating turn. It has headed to a run off election. Luiz Lula Da Silva has made a political comeback seeking to return to the presidency. However, President Jair Bolsonaro performed better than the polls predicted. Polls have been under major scrutiny when it relates to election outcomes. Da Silva only got 48.4 % of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 43.23%. To win the first round a candidate needs 50%. This is why Brazil went into a run off. The challenge with electoral systems of liberal democracy is that candidates do not get enough votes to avoid a run off. Even with an independent judiciary, legal challenges to results are a concern. There remain fears that Jair Bolsonaro will not accept the election results. He has not been shy about his admiration for the military government that ruled Brazil between 1964 to 1985. Compared to other Latin American countries Brazil had stability. This has been the case throughout its history, but that might change. Even if Luiz Lula Da Silva wins, he has to face right-wing opposition. President Jair Bolsonaro  could always make a return to office in the following years. Brazil's elections represents the wave of right-wing movements coming to power starting in the late 2000s. Who ever wins will also effect Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua.  

The French Presidential Election Results

 

Emmanuel Macron won re-election as France's president. The results showed Marcon  getting 58.5 % of the vote and Marine Le Pen gained 41.5 %. The polling numbers suggests the country remains divided. One section favors the European Union and political centrism. Marine Le Pen and  the National Rally Party are advocates ethnocentric nationalism and far-right politics. France has been questioning the nature of the NATO alliance and grappling with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. No candidate won a majority in the first round, which was the reason for the run-off election. The French are experiencing major discord, which its leaders are not addressing. Economic challenges and concerns surrounding immigration are issues that are part of the French political consciousness. Now that President Macron has a second term questions remain about La Republique En Marche ! ability to reach out to the citizens frustrated with current conditions. Macron's party is supportive of  economic liberalism, globalization, and a pan-European political vision. Certain policies related to these beliefs do not benefit the population as a whole. When Emmanuel Macron won the 2017 election he got 66.10% of the vote. Marine Le Pen received 33.90% of the vote. Le Pen improved while Macron saw a decrease. The far-right is gaining momentum, due to the inadequacies of political centrism. Having a genuine leftist political party can counter the rise xenophobic nativist nationalism. La Republique En Marche! must change tactics to remain relevant and attract voters. Otherwise, voters will gravitate to more extreme political movements.   

Protests Sparked Over The Presidential Election in Belarus

 

Belarus held its presidential elections on Sunday. The results announced that longtime incumbent Alexander Lukashenko won the election with 80% of the vote. The issue which opposition leaders have raised is that the elections were not free or fair. Protests have broken out in various cities across the European nation. Russia's response was to congratulate President Lukashenko's election victory. Germany has been skeptical of the political situation in the country. As demonstrations continue to grow, this will most likely attract foreign powers. the opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikanouskaya has attracted more support. There are fears Belarus could follow a path similar to Ukraine. An internal crisis can be used as an excuse for intervention by the EU. There is no indication that the opposition is being controlled by foreign powers for the sake of regime change. Belarus could be entering another political phase and the citizens may  desire large scale change. Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and has faced little  formidable opposition. Sviatlana Tsikanouskaya has ran as an independent building a coalition across the political spectrum. The challenge is keeping such an alliance unified. Being against the government or current  administration is not enough to ensure a  promising future. Repression has gotten worse with journalists and opposition leaders put under arrest. Belarus faces a crisis that consists of  authoritarian government, political oppression, threat of  geopolitical maneuvering between Russia and the EU.   

The US Charges Nicolas Maduro with Drug Trafficking and Proposes a Plan of Political Transition

The Trump administration no longer recognizes President Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. New charges of  drug trafficking have been made, but so far there has been little evidence to suggest that his government has a full scale operation. The United States has been attempting to interfere in the internal affairs of Venezuela under the claim of protection of human rights. The ulterior motive is to get access to the country's oil and important geographic location. There has been a coordinated attempt to depose democratically elected leftist governments across Latin America. Bolivia and Brazil have been subject to a right-wing resurgence. There is a cash reward for President Maduro's arrest issued by the US government. The Trump administration has suggested that military action could be a possible option, if  President Nicolas Maduro is able to survive the political crisis.The pretext seems similar to the 1989 invasion of Panama or the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The US transition plan demands that both Juan Guaido and Nicloas Maduro  step aside. Doing so would mean an interim government would be installed. Sanctions would be lifted only when the process is over by both the US and EU. Neither leader would be willing to do this. Venezuela may find itself in direct conflict with the United States. Venezuela has an alliance with Cuba,  but other countries may not come to its aid if war were to break out.     

Faure Gnassingbe Will Run in the Togolese Presidential Election

President Faure Gnassingbe will run for another term despite protests and the political opposition. Since 1967,  the Gnassingbe family has been in power in Togo. The country has similarities with Syria and North Korea in regards to  the head of state has their children be successors. Parliament approved constitutional revision, which mean that Faure Gnassingbe could stay in power up until 2030. The presidency in Togo has five year terms,but there is no indication that Gnassingbe would willingly give up power with the end of  the term. Certain countries may make a leader president for life. With the change in the constitution this may be a means of enabling President Faure Gnassingbe to remain in power indefinitely. As long as he maintains support of the military and the Union for the Republic  Party his political survival is guaranteed. However, growing  public resentment could possibly cause his downfall. So far, there is little condemnation from the European countries or the US. The reason is that Togo may become more important in relation to counter terrorism efforts. Nigeria and Burkina Faso are confronting violence from the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb, and Boko Harem. The presence of such groups could be used as an excuse to silence opposition or legitimize authoritarian leaders. The reason President Faure Gnassingbe still has support is the fear of what occurs in neighboring countries. A mix of discord and repression can only result in post-election violence.        

The Tunisian Elections (2014)

It was 2014 when Tunisia declared its first truly free and fair election. President Zine El Abidine  Ben Ali had been removed from office due what would be know as the Arab Spring uprisings that swept across North Africa and the Middle East. This video from five years ago reports on the polls by Euronews. Beji Caid Essebsi became Tunisia's next president, but his association with the former administration drew criticism. He served as parliament speaker under the Ben Ali administration and some feared that the authoritarian tendencies would reemerge. Like most North African countries the new political transitions did not bring about more freedoms or improved living standards. Moncef Marzouk of the Congress of the Republic party ran against him claiming human rights would be under threat. Beji Caid Essebsi 's rule was not long when he passed  away at the age of 92 in 2019. The concern about electing older leaders is that their health may effect their capacity to govern. Sudden deaths could put the country in turmoil and peaceful transitions may not be possible. The Nidaa Tounes party has to figure out its political vision without their leader. Tunisia faces a bigger challenge of being next to two countries Libya and Algeria which are also dealing with political crisis and insurrection. Essebi's legacy is already being mythologized for the sake of make it seem as if the 2011 revolution promoted progress. It is too early to make such a proclamation, however the next administration will have to confront security and economic problems.