The Political Activities of Former DRC President Joseph Kabila

 

Former DRC president Joseph Kabila is back in the country after two years. Returning to the city of Goma, accusations were made he had links to the M23 rebels. Leading the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2001 to 2019, his influence is still felt. The Second Congolese Civil War caused massive devastation to the region and DRC. The end of Kabila's immunity indicates a political motivation. Joseph Kabila might be calculating a return to the presidency. President Felix Tshisekedi has expressed the desire for the Constitutional Commission to change the term limits. If presidential term limits were to be extended that means Kabila could run again. This explains why the People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy is facing suppression. New charges were placed on Joseph Kabila accusing him of war crimes and treason. At this time, there is not enough evidence for trial. The restrictions on the PPRD Party are in the public's view an example of anti-democratic action. Joseph Kabila has claimed he wants to have a settlement with the M23 rebels. It was announced that Rwanda and the DRC would procure a peace agreement. Fears are mounting that it will not hold. If any peace settlement is to be successful it will require the active participation Uganda. Both Uganda and Rwanda have been involved in the DRC's internal affairs going back to 1998. Joseph Kabila has the experience dealing with President Paul Kagame and President Yoweri Museveni. The assassination of his father and the former president Laurent-Desire Kabila, made Joseph understand the dangers the DRC was in from its neighbors. The ban on the PPRD Party and  the end of Joseph Kabila's immunity will only increase his popularity. Political persecution turns public figures into icons of resistance. While Kabila still has enemies made in the 2000s, he could  be developing a wider political movement. 

African Union Attempts To Solve The South Sudan Crisis

 

South Sudan could be falling into civil war. The African Union has sent mediators to avert the crisis. This is not the first time the African Union was involved in Sudan. There was an AU mission in Darfur. The current crisis was sparked by the Neur White Army. The escalation went further with the arrest Riek Machar. The basis of the arrest was that Machar was connected to the Neur White Army. The new tension has an ethnic element with Neur and Dinka. Most of the current fighting is occurring in the Upper Nile state. The African union mediators want to see the 2018 peace deal remain in place. The reason for the concern is that a South Sudanese civil war would merge with other conflicts. Chad and Ethiopia would be effected by refugees fleeing fighting. Uganda also is a major factor in regional power. President Yoweri Museveni came to Juba to express support for President Salva Kiir Mayadit. Uganda is exploiting the internal struggles to gain more influence in East Africa. The third Sudanese Civil War has reverberated with the flow of arms into South Sudan. President Salva Kiir Mayadit has been the only head of state since 2011. Power sharing was not going to work in a political system that is authoritarian. The African Union requested that Riek Machar's release, yet the government refuses to meet such as demand. More efforts for diplomatic solutions are being made. 

A New Phase In The Yemen War

 

The Houthi rebels are now fighting a new phase of the Yemen War. Israel's attacks on Gaza inflamed the rebellion and  escalated the civil war in Yemen. The response was to stop ships in the Red Sea. The invasion of Lebanon and attacks on Hezbollah  was significant to Houthi rebels. Seeing as both get some degree of support from Iran, the Red Sea response was the next choice. Yemen is nowing facing bombings from Israel's European and American allies. The objective is to ensure that Israel remains an outpost for US and European countries. Yemen could act as a launching area for a war on Iran. Saudi Arabia is a factor in the destabilization of Yemen. The desire to insert a president there loyal to their interest remains a priority. President Rashad al-Alimi made the accusation that al-Qaida was collaborating with Iran. This allegation has no basis, due to the fact a Sunni Muslim terrorist organization would not align with a Shia Muslim theocracy. Al-Qaida in the Arabian peninsula was formed indigenously. The other terrorist organizations were being aided by the West in Syria. The government of Yemen no longer controls the capital of Saana. Aden is now a de-facto capital for the al-Alimi administration. The Presidential Leadership Council has failed to govern Yemen. At one time,  President Rashad al-Alimi took refuge in Saudi Arabia. Like most presidents after the fall Abdullah Ali Salih, they are reliant of Saudi Arabia to enforce their leadership of Yemen. A decade has passed with no end in sight. The new phase of the Yemen War is that other conflicts are going to fuse with it.  

The End of The Bashar al-Assad Presidency

 

Syria's government has been deposed by a combination of terrorist organizations, domestic armed groups, and foreign powers. When Hayat Tahrir al-Sham entered Damascus, President Assad was nowhere to be found. Assad and his family prior to the rebel invasion fled to the Russian Federation. So far, there has not been an announcement from Bashar al-Assad about the situation. A possible bloodless coup occurred, which forced him into a type of self imposed exile. Russia did not come to his aid like in 2015. Iran's current military skirmishes with Israel is the focus of their energies. Israel with President Assad removed launched an invasion into Syrian territory. Syria is not going to become a liberal democracy. The Baath Party was just replaced with HTS. Now it appears that Abu Mohammad al-Jolani will have control of Syria. This depends on how HTS will fight its competitors. Assad's exile to Russia is puzzling. Iran and Oman are likely places in which the Assad family would flee to. Turkey remains in the north of Syria and Iraq will be effected by the change of the Syrian government. Syria now has tranfomed into what Lebanon was during the 1975 to 1990 civil war. The United States now is conducting airstrikes against ISIS in Syria. A fear is that when the Russo-Ukraine War is over, there will be attempt reinstall Bashar al-Assad. Russia has two bases in Syria, which could launch an operation. Although unlikely it might explain why Assad chose to get asylum in Russia. There could be discussions about a military operation to clear terrorist organizations and armed groups from Syria. As long as Bashar al-Assad is alive and politically active this could happen. Considering the amount of political instability, the Assad era is over. Ethnic and religious hatreds are growing with escalating violence. The loyalists to President Bashar al-Assad will never accept a new government.  

South Sudanese Elections Are Postponed

 

South Sudan will postpone its elections. The government asserts it is to take a proper census, register political parties, and develop a new constitution. These statements are legitimate measures needed for functional government. The concern is that President Salva Kiir is using this time to extend his administration. The elections are now set to be held in December of 2026. The civil war that was waged for five years against Riek Machar ended in 2018. The conflict left 400,000 dead. The argument is that some authoritarianism will keep South Sudan from balkanizing. The civil war in Sudan also is a factor. The war there has effected oil exports, which South Sudan is dependent. Political opposition most likely will not be able to operate under a new national security act. Discontent among civil servants has emerged due to missed pay. The outcome of elections can be predicted. President Salva Kiir has been in power since 2011 and could remain for decades. Leaders such as Paul Kagame, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo,  Paul Biya, Denis Sassou Nguesso,  and Yoweri Museveni have been fixtures in African politics. The UN special envoy for South Sudan stated that the country was not ready for elections. The United Nations should not be dictating what South Sudan should do. The role of the UN is do conflict resolution and facilitate peace negations. Elections could be posted further into 2027. This effort is to extend President Salva Kiir's rule. South Sudan since its independence has known only one leader. If economic conditions become worse and discord is ignored South Sudan could fall into another civil war.   

The M23 Rebels Connection To Rwanda

 

The M23 rebels are making an attempt to retake areas lost in the war. Clashes in North Kivu have caused fears of another massive civil war. Observers have noted that external forces are active in the DRC. According to the United Nations, Rwanda has been listed as a major contributor to the M23 insurrection. Much of the conflicts stems from the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide in 1994 and the Second Congolese Civil War. The war lasted from 1998 to 2003 displacing many people. Ethnic hatreds did not dissipate, with others accusing President Paul Kagame attempting to make a larger Tutsi state. Rwanda and Burundi were in a state of civil war prior to the 1994 genocide. The Rwandan Patriotic Front continues to dominate the politics of the country, but seeks more influence in the region. The alliance with the M23 rebels might be a means of fighting the Democratic Forces for Liberation of Rwanda. The Hutu rebel group wants to challenge the Rwandan Patriotic Front. During the final years of the Joseph Mobutu regime, Hutu refugees fled to the DRC. Militias have been forming independently of governments. A Tutsi and Hutu reconciliation was never achieved. M23 emerged in 2012 claiming it wanted to protect Tutsis from other Hutu militias. The UN Peacekeeping mission cannot be declared a success. Deaths and internally displaced persons have increased. The Congolese public sees them as an occupying force. Rwanda's growing military intervention into the DRC will harm relations with Uganda. President Yoweri Museveni realizes that the DRC is a major trading partner. The security risk is that the fighting could spill over into Uganda. Congolese asylum seekers are already entering the country. Uganda has taken refugees from other countries such as South Sudan, Burundi, and Eritrea. Rwandan refugees have come to Uganda. The DRC has descended into another humanitarian crisis. President Felix Tshisekedi's options are limited. The Democratic Republic of the Congo could be on the brink of war with Rwanda.  

South Sudan Declares Independence (2011)

 

A referendum was held in 2011 for South Sudanese independence. The result showed most wanted their own nation and President Omar Al-Bashir acknowledge the result. This seemed like the logical step after a the Second Sudanese Civil War, There still were issues that went unresolved. Oil revenues, ethnic tensions, border disputes, and the question of citizenship continue to be concerns. War in South Kordofan and Blue Nile broke out. The Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North was responsible for the hostilities. This also became connected to the violence in Darfur. South Sudan then fell into civil war between the years of 2013 to 2020. South Sudan is a country of multiple ethnic groups. The conflict between Neur and Dinka halted the process of development. The country has not developed a democratic political structure. Since 2011, it has known only one president Salva Kirr. President Salva Kirr justifies remaining in power asserting that South Sudan would collapse without him. The dissolving of parliament in 2021 in favor of a smaller representative body indicates he has no intention of sharing power. After 12 years of independence  the South Sudanese do not have their basic needs met. The aftermath of the Second Sudanese Civil War, South Sudanese Civil War, and an the rise of an authoritarian government left citizens in a precarious situation.   

Paul Kagame Seeking A Fourth Term

 

President Paul Kagame is going to run for a fourth term. Doing this is no shock considering the 2015 constitutional amendment . For two decades Rwandan politics has been dominated by one president.  The difference now is the African continent has been turning against longtime leaders and those deemed as puppets of  the West. Gabon, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Sudan have seen leaders deposed. Rwanda has had the same president since the year 2000. The presidential terms are seven years. This means Paul Kagame could remain in office up until 2034. Some suspect that another constitutional amendment could be made in the coming years. The end of presidential term limits would mean Paul Kagame could be president for life. The Green Party seeks to defeat him at the polls, but the Rwandan Patriotic Party has a powerful grip on the political system. Frank Habineza is seeking to become Rwanda's next president. The invention in Mozambique, the Rwandan asylum plan, and the status of relations with Uganda are going to be pivotal topics in the election. There is considerable controversy about the Rwandan government's support for the M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of The Congo. The concern is that Ugandan and Rwandan involvement in the DRC could create a wider regional conflict. The DRC and Ugandan forces have fought the Allied Democratic Forces. Armed groups and longtime leaders are making the region more unstable. There is the fear of what  would happen with the end of  the Paul Kagame era. This explains why voters might support him, even with  growing diplomatic concerns and military engagements.  

Sudanese Refugees Flee To Chad, Egypt, and Kenya

 

The conflict in Sudan has created refugees. Simultaneously, Darfur has seen an escalation resulting in large numbers of Sudanese escaping to Chad. Other destinations of refugees are Egypt and Kenya. The fight between the RSF and the Sudanese Military will spread across borders. The outbreaks of ethnic violence and war have been seen in Ethiopia. That came to a peaceful resolution without balkanization. Sudan appears to be tearing itself apart. Darfur has been a challenge since 2003. South Sudan gained independence in 2011, but had internal confrontation. The power void left by the Omar Al-Bashir regime was followed by a series of coups. The civilians are caught in the middle of warring armed factions. The United Nations has not made serious proposals for peace. Sudanese might face a more difficult time in Egypt. The border dispute between Egypt and Sudan could be exacerbated by the status of the conflict. Sudanese in Egypt could become scapegoats or subject to xenophobic sentiment. Egypt does not provide shelters or camps for refugees. Racial prejudice against the 4 million Sudanese migrants can no longer be hidden. The added incoming refugees will be used as a distraction from economic concerns of the nation. Kenya does have refugee camps, however conditions are poor. The camps in Kenya also have refugees from Somalia and South Sudan. Crowding and public health concerns make life difficult for refugees. Kenya could respond by either shutting its borders or getting involved in Sudan. The approach that Kenya took in Somalia should not be replicated in Sudan. The only solution would be an African Union effort to develop a peace settlement. If this does not happen refugees will continue to come to Kenya, Chad, and Egypt.  

The Rapid Support Forces Revolt In Sudan

 

Sudan could be slipping into a state of civil war. The Rapid Support Forces have been engaged in combat with the Sudanese Army. Reports of fighting have been  documented throughout Sudan. Khartoum. Demonstrations against the Abdel Fattah al-Burhan regime continue. Sudan has remained unstable since the fall of the Omar al-Bashir government. The former regime is culpable for the conditions that currently exist. Sudan formed the Janjaweed militias to fight in Darfur. The region wanted to break off from Sudan. Those militias would form the RSF in 2013. The RSF was used for border security and fighting abroad. The RSF has participated in the war in Yemen. As the 2010s passed the security force became more powerful. The same force that Omar al-Bashir built up went on to participate in a coup against him. The RSF would also participate in the 2021 coup. Calls for their integration into the Sudanese military have been proposed. The paramilitary force would lose power if it were to do so. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo commander of the RSF could be seeking to take control of government. The military and paramilitary  forces have more power than Sudanese citizens. Those who want to see democratic and civilian rule continue to struggle. Another Sudanese Civil War will spread into neighboring countries. Libya, Chad, Ethiopia, the African Central Republic,  Egypt,  and Eritrea could be effected. The RSF poses the most formidable threat to  al-Burhan's rule. So far, the RSF rebellion has not escalated to the extent of being classified as a civil war. Much of that depends on the total strength of the RSF.