Sudanese Refugees Flee To Chad, Egypt, and Kenya

 

The conflict in Sudan has created refugees. Simultaneously, Darfur has seen an escalation resulting in large numbers of Sudanese escaping to Chad. Other destinations of refugees are Egypt and Kenya. The fight between the RSF and the Sudanese Military will spread across borders. The outbreaks of ethnic violence and war have been seen in Ethiopia. That came to a peaceful resolution without balkanization. Sudan appears to be tearing itself apart. Darfur has been a challenge since 2003. South Sudan gained independence in 2011, but had internal confrontation. The power void left by the Omar Al-Bashir regime was followed by a series of coups. The civilians are caught in the middle of warring armed factions. The United Nations has not made serious proposals for peace. Sudanese might face a more difficult time in Egypt. The border dispute between Egypt and Sudan could be exacerbated by the status of the conflict. Sudanese in Egypt could become scapegoats or subject to xenophobic sentiment. Egypt does not provide shelters or camps for refugees. Racial prejudice against the 4 million Sudanese migrants can no longer be hidden. The added incoming refugees will be used as a distraction from economic concerns of the nation. Kenya does have refugee camps, however conditions are poor. The camps in Kenya also have refugees from Somalia and South Sudan. Crowding and public health concerns make life difficult for refugees. Kenya could respond by either shutting its borders or getting involved in Sudan. The approach that Kenya took in Somalia should not be replicated in Sudan. The only solution would be an African Union effort to develop a peace settlement. If this does not happen refugees will continue to come to Kenya, Chad, and Egypt.  

African Leaders Are Proposing A Peace Plan To The Russia-Ukraine War

 

African leaders have grown concerned about the war in Ukraine. Now, an effort is being made to formulate a plan for peace with South Africa taking leading the mission. African leaders will head to both Moscow and Kiev. President Cyril Ramaphosa has made phone calls to both President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky. There remains doubts about success. The attempt should be praised, considering the European Union has done little. The peace mission demonstrates that African nations are becoming more influential on the international stage. Zambia, the Republic of the Congo, Senegal, Uganda, and Egypt are expected to have their heads of state attend the peace mission. President Hakainde Hichilema ( Zambia ) ,  President Dennis Sassou Nguesso (the Republic of the Congo ), President Macky Sall ( Senegal) ,  President Yoweri Museveni (Uganda), and President  Abdel Fattah el-Sisi are expected to make their arguments for peace. Many attending are longtime leaders, with the exception of President Hichilema who has been head of state since 2021. Other African leaders cannot attend due to internal matters. Sudan and Ethiopia are dealing with both ethnic conflict and civil war. The DRC grapples with an insurgency. Having more countries in the delegation could be helpful. Ghana, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Angola, Zimbabwe, or Namibia could have joined the peace mission. The African peace mission should be deemed a positive development in European affairs. Peace will never come as long as NATO expands and the arms industry profits from the Russia-Ukraine War. The US, UK, France, and Germany want to see the conflict extended. South Africa was accused of sending weapons to Russia, but there remains to be evidence of such a transaction. It is clear that some European leaders want the peace mission to fail, for a number of reasons. Preserving the arms trade and dismantling Russia are objectives of those who want the war to escalate. What happens next depends on the terms prosed in a peace settlement.   

Ethiopia Wages War on The Tigrayan People's Liberation Front

 

Ethiopia has come to a point of ethnic conflict. The Ethiopian military has sought to wipe out the Tigrayan People's  Liberation Front, which could result in a long term civil war. The tension between Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo has grown in recent years. The Tigray have accused the government of marginalizing them since the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. The conflict will spillover into neighboring countries, which could attract external interference. Prime Minister Abiy Amed's peace with Eritrea could be jeopardize depending on how the military operations on the TPLF go. Somalia remains a failed state, with terrorist organizations active there. Refugees  have fled into Sudan, a country attempting to adjust in a post-Omar al-Bashir political atmosphere. Ethiopia still has a dispute with Egypt over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project. The Nile River is a pivotal water source which Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt have an interest in. The African Union has not made any immediate plans for action or possible pressure to stop the violence. The biggest fear is that Ethiopia could be starting a process of balkanization, with new states emerging constantly at war with one another.  

Ethiopian-Egyptian Dispute Reaches An Impasse

Attempts at negotiating an agreement  regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have stalled. Tensions are escalating between Ethiopia and Egypt. The problem is related to water access to the Nile River. As climate change becomes more dramatic, water resources become more valuable. Access to clean water is not only about profit, but survival itself. Nourishing a population and essential to agriculture water security in Africa is a serious issue. President Adullah Sisi of Egypt  and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are faced with both internal and regional challenges. Ethiopia must recognize Oromo aspirations and avoid conflict, while maintaining peace with Eritrea. Egypt has to deal with economic instability and  be aware of the disorder in Libya. Sudan's condition by be an area of consensus between the two countries. These internal and external problems may prevent a war. The risk is too high, if diplomacy can still be effective. The Nile dispute will not be solved quickly. Egypt requested a UN intervention to help with the standoff. A better option would probably to address grievances at the African Union. There was only one time that these two countries went to war. The Ethio-Egyptian War lasted from 1874 to 1876 and resulted in a victory for the Abyssinian Empire. The current situation is not as intense, but could escalate.