India Strikes Pakistan

 

India has attacked Pakistan. This follows an act of  terrorism that killed Indian tourist in Kashmir.. Kashmir is divided by Pakistan and India. Both the two Asian powers occupy the area. India blamed the Pakistani government for the murder of 26 Indian tourist. While it is known that Pakistan has funded and supported armed groups, little evidence exists this was a government directed operation. Pakistan has been fighting terrorist organizations and multiple armed groups. The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan created more turbulence. Operation Sindoor was launched in both Pakistan and Pakistani occupied Kashmir. The military strikes targeted Jaish e-Mohammed  and Lashkar e-Tayyiba. There have been three major Indo-Pakistani Wars. These occurred in 1947, 1965, and 1971. The Kargil War broke out in 1999. Fears are growing of another Indo-Pakistani War. The situation becomes more precarious with nuclear weapons. An Indian and Pakistani nuclear war devastate the region and the world. Mutual assured destruction could act as restraint for the two countries. An Indo-Pakistani War would complicate the BRICS association. China tends to favor Pakistan in its foreign policy. India is a member of BRICS which could cause tension. A regional war would create refugees. They would either flee to Central Asia, Europe, or Australia. Air strikes kill more civilians than enemy combatants. The Bharatiya Janata Party promotes anti-Muslim and Islamophobic policies. The BJP Party are Hindu nationalists and use anti-Muslim rhetoric to  obtain political support. The vituperation and abuse gets worse around India's election cycle. The hatred will intensify  with a war with Pakistan. Reports of the air forces of both countries are  fighting one another. It remains unclear how Pakistan will retaliate. India tends to win wars against Pakistan, but conditions in the region are different from the 20th century.  

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Enter A New Era of Diplomatic Relations

 

Border clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have been taking place for over 30 years. These circumstances relate to how the Soviet Union divided Central Asia. When independence was granted as the result of the Soviet collapse in 1991, the new countries were in conflict. Between 2021 and 2022 the clashes between the two Central Asian states became more lethal. President Emomali Rahmon  and President Sadyr Japarov signed an agreement outlining what the defined borders would be. Since 2022, roads, railway, and air links were closed off. War or regional conflict only undermines the whole of Central Asia. This change in policy should be an example to all countries in the world. Conflict and war spreads while diplomacy is not given much consideration. The challenge is if Tajik and Kyrgyz  citizens will accept a peace settlement. Ethnic hatreds remain in particular areas. President Emomali Rahmon has ruled the country since 1994. Prior to this, he was Chairmen of the Supreme Assembly between 1992 to 1993. His power is immense being increased by constitutional referendums. President Rahmon has more power to maintain peace or disregard a peace settlement. President Sadyr Japarov does not have authoritarian power like other Central Asian leaders. Kyrgyzstan was during the 2000s rotating through various interim presidents. This was the result of the Tulip revolution. A change in administration could effect relations with Tajikistan. For now, the agreement to end hostilities remain intact.      

The Kurdistan Worker's Party Might Seek A Peace Agreement

 

The Kurdistan Worker's Party announced a ceasefire. The PKK for a number of years has been fighting Turkey for the cause of Kurdish national self-determination. Indications hint to the PKK seeking a peace agreement. Abdullah Ocalan leader of the PKK has called for the armed struggle to end. The circumstances are a direct result of the fall of the Assad presidency in Syria. Turkey made itself an enemy of Syria and the fight with the PKK was putting pressure on the government. The void left by the removal of the Baathist government puts the Kurds in a precarious situation. Israeli expansion and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's control of Syria means Kurds face two enemies. Ocalan's sudden shift away from armed resistance is more about a battlefield reality. Under such conditions a Kurdish state cannot be created. The PKK has been fighting since 1984 and has changed its policies regarding the question of independence. The shift in Turkey has been about more autonomy. Kurds in Syria, Iraq, and Iran do not all share this position. An estimated 40,000 people have died from the conflict with the PKK. As long as Abdullah Ocalan remains in prison peace agreements  or a sustainable ceasefire will not last. Calls for a peaceful resolution might not be possible. The desire to see a Kurdistan emerge are growing. What complicates regional matters is the Democratic Forces of Syria. The Kurdish led group has fought both the Bashar  al-Assad presidency in Syria and the Recep Erdogan government. Even if the PKK were to make peace or dissolve, this would not end regional challenges. Neo- Otomanism is partitioning parts of West Asia. Kurds and Arabs are seen as obstacles to the new Turkish neo-colonial policy. Members of the PKK understand this agenda. Abdullah Ocalan's calls for a peace settlement could be rejected by a large portion of  the PKK.  

Germany Will Send Leopard 2 Tanks To Ukraine

 

Germany  has confirmed that it will give Ukraine more arms. What Ukraine will be getting is leopard 2 tanks. For months, the public has been told that Russia will not be successful. Now, it appears that the Russian Federation will maintain the territories in the Donbas. Russia has more tanks than Ukraine, so this will not dramatically change the situation. The only people who benefit are the arms manufacturers. The war in Ukraine has increased profits for these corporations. The Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates the devasting effects of the military industrial complex. The major concern for Germany is that they would be pushed out the arms market in Europe by the United States. Gradually, the war is escalating and might spread. Belarus or Moldova could be drawn into the conflict. Chancellor Olof Scholz stated only 14 tanks are being sent to Ukraine. It should be assumed that more will come. The US and United Kingdom are sending tanks, which indicates some economic competition. Sending more weapons prolongs the conflict and results in more loss of life. More arms come, a peace settlement becomes more unattainable. NATO does not want a peace settlement and Russia has lost patience . The conflict could last months or  years with more arms shipments.   

Sudan and Egypt Are Strengthening Military Ties

 

The military ties between Sudan and Egypt are growing stronger. The reason for this development is longtime disputes with Ethiopia over the Nile River. Access to water is going to be a large source of conflict around the world. This is now happening in Africa. Sudan and Egypt have conducted war games and drills. This has involved both air and naval units. The talks about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reached an impasse. So far, there have been no efforts to start a dialogue between Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia. The African Union does not seem to be taking action about what could be a move to war. What also complicates matters is the conditions with the Tigray in Ethiopia. The Blue and White Nile hold much importance to both countries. Egypt wants an agreement that portions of its waters will not be taken to fill the reservoirs for  the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Both Egypt and Sudan have seen instability with the fall of longtime leaders. Now that Omar Al-Bashir and Hosni Mubarak are no longer a political force the region is undergoing transformation. The dispute over water has made both countries more hostile to Ethiopian infrastructure projects. Other countries will take note of this division. It is possible Sudan's neighbors could get involved. 

Ethiopia Wages War on The Tigrayan People's Liberation Front

 

Ethiopia has come to a point of ethnic conflict. The Ethiopian military has sought to wipe out the Tigrayan People's  Liberation Front, which could result in a long term civil war. The tension between Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo has grown in recent years. The Tigray have accused the government of marginalizing them since the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. The conflict will spillover into neighboring countries, which could attract external interference. Prime Minister Abiy Amed's peace with Eritrea could be jeopardize depending on how the military operations on the TPLF go. Somalia remains a failed state, with terrorist organizations active there. Refugees  have fled into Sudan, a country attempting to adjust in a post-Omar al-Bashir political atmosphere. Ethiopia still has a dispute with Egypt over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project. The Nile River is a pivotal water source which Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt have an interest in. The African Union has not made any immediate plans for action or possible pressure to stop the violence. The biggest fear is that Ethiopia could be starting a process of balkanization, with new states emerging constantly at war with one another.  

Lebanon's Increasing Instability

Lebanon has experienced a bombing in Beirut. The country continues to struggle with with economic decline and a leadership unable to solve the country's problems. Protests over unemployment and increased taxation has brought the country to the brink. The explosion of the port in the capital does not appear to be an act of terrorism. Many theories have been expressed, yet the government remains silent. Some have speculated that it was a strike by Israel to counter Hezbollah. Protests have been occuring since October of 2019 and there is no end in sight. Food security has declined, currency had rapidly devalued, and the population grows more vexed. The ruling elite have allowed Lebanon to fall into long term crisis that could spread regionally. A civil war in Syria and a more aggressive Israel could spark a larger war. Iran has significant involvement in Lebanon. Iranian influence has been growing immensely since Iraq ceased to be stable. Currently, the government of Lebanon has launched an investigation into the port explosion. There is little faith from the population that substantial action will be taken. The explosion could have been caused by the ignition of ammonium nitrate. Although there were not mass amounts of deaths, rebuilding will take large amounts of funding. With little revenue and limited possibility of assistance, Lebanon could be heading for mass insurrection. The removal of rubble and debris has become a symbol of a country on the verge of collapse. Options are limited. Lebanon can either seek loans from either Saudi Arabia or France. Neither of these options are favorable. France a former colonizer of Lebanon would make citizens more suspicious of the government. Saudi Arabia has made attempts to make Lebanon another front in their regional competition with Iran. Whatever happens next, peaceful solutions are limited.   

Renewed Border Clashes Between India and China

China and India are once more engaging in border clashes. This comes as Asia is struggling with other regional tensions. The source of tension is located in Aksai Chin, the Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso Lake, Demchock, and Arunachal Pradesh. Aksai Chin is controlled by China, but claimed by India. Arunachal Pradesh is controlled by  India, by claimed by China. Gunfire and casualties have been reported. According to BBC News, 20 Indian troops were killed in Ladakh. When the first incident occurred it appeared as if the two regional powers were willing to come to an agreement. Now it appears tensions are escalating. A war between  two powerful Asian nations could have devastating consequences. If China goes to war with India, Pakistan could come to its assistance. India and Pakistan were attempting to improve relations, but so far attempts have failed. A conflict in 2020 would not be the same as the Sino-Indian War in 1962. Disorder in both Pakistan or India could reverberate to Afghanistan. The Taliban has never been defeated and could take advantage of regional conflict. Kashmir already under new strict guide lines for control will also be effected. A China-India war may attracted other world powers to get involved. It is uncertain what exactly the objectives are of both China and India. The border disputes could just remain minor. There was a border fight  in 2017 that  did not escalate. Seeing as the global political situation is different, with China being viewed with more suspicion the issue could be exacerbated.