Sudan and Egypt Are Strengthening Military Ties

 

The military ties between Sudan and Egypt are growing stronger. The reason for this development is longtime disputes with Ethiopia over the Nile River. Access to water is going to be a large source of conflict around the world. This is now happening in Africa. Sudan and Egypt have conducted war games and drills. This has involved both air and naval units. The talks about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reached an impasse. So far, there have been no efforts to start a dialogue between Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia. The African Union does not seem to be taking action about what could be a move to war. What also complicates matters is the conditions with the Tigray in Ethiopia. The Blue and White Nile hold much importance to both countries. Egypt wants an agreement that portions of its waters will not be taken to fill the reservoirs for  the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Both Egypt and Sudan have seen instability with the fall of longtime leaders. Now that Omar Al-Bashir and Hosni Mubarak are no longer a political force the region is undergoing transformation. The dispute over water has made both countries more hostile to Ethiopian infrastructure projects. Other countries will take note of this division. It is possible Sudan's neighbors could get involved. 

Ethiopian-Egyptian Dispute Reaches An Impasse

Attempts at negotiating an agreement  regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have stalled. Tensions are escalating between Ethiopia and Egypt. The problem is related to water access to the Nile River. As climate change becomes more dramatic, water resources become more valuable. Access to clean water is not only about profit, but survival itself. Nourishing a population and essential to agriculture water security in Africa is a serious issue. President Adullah Sisi of Egypt  and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are faced with both internal and regional challenges. Ethiopia must recognize Oromo aspirations and avoid conflict, while maintaining peace with Eritrea. Egypt has to deal with economic instability and  be aware of the disorder in Libya. Sudan's condition by be an area of consensus between the two countries. These internal and external problems may prevent a war. The risk is too high, if diplomacy can still be effective. The Nile dispute will not be solved quickly. Egypt requested a UN intervention to help with the standoff. A better option would probably to address grievances at the African Union. There was only one time that these two countries went to war. The Ethio-Egyptian War lasted from 1874 to 1876 and resulted in a victory for the Abyssinian Empire. The current situation is not as intense, but could escalate.   

Renewed Border Clashes Between India and China

China and India are once more engaging in border clashes. This comes as Asia is struggling with other regional tensions. The source of tension is located in Aksai Chin, the Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso Lake, Demchock, and Arunachal Pradesh. Aksai Chin is controlled by China, but claimed by India. Arunachal Pradesh is controlled by  India, by claimed by China. Gunfire and casualties have been reported. According to BBC News, 20 Indian troops were killed in Ladakh. When the first incident occurred it appeared as if the two regional powers were willing to come to an agreement. Now it appears tensions are escalating. A war between  two powerful Asian nations could have devastating consequences. If China goes to war with India, Pakistan could come to its assistance. India and Pakistan were attempting to improve relations, but so far attempts have failed. A conflict in 2020 would not be the same as the Sino-Indian War in 1962. Disorder in both Pakistan or India could reverberate to Afghanistan. The Taliban has never been defeated and could take advantage of regional conflict. Kashmir already under new strict guide lines for control will also be effected. A China-India war may attracted other world powers to get involved. It is uncertain what exactly the objectives are of both China and India. The border disputes could just remain minor. There was a border fight  in 2017 that  did not escalate. Seeing as the global political situation is different, with China being viewed with more suspicion the issue could be exacerbated.