Sudan's War Induced Balkanization

 

Sudan is balkanizing due to civil war. The Rapid Support Forces control a significant portion of the eastern section of  the country. The RSF is not the only group fighting. The Sudan Liberation Movement and the Sudan People's Liberation army are active in combat. Those two rebel factions control the least amount territory. The Sudan Armed Forces is fighting a war to keep Sudan whole. A victory by the Sudan Armed Forces does not mean liberation from oppression or violence. Sudan is under the rule of a military regime. President  Abdel Fattah al-Burhan will use the civil war as an excuse to maintain power. Even if the RSF is defeated, the military regime will make a justification for restrictions rights and political opposition. President Abdel Fattah al-Burhan at the UN accused the RSF of atrocities, but ignored the army's role in violence. His demand is that the RSF withdraw from the land they have taken if  they want a peace deal. There are indications that the United Arab Emirates and Egypt have some degree of involvement in the conflict. The UAE has been accused of supporting the RSF. Egypt was accused by Mohamed Dagalo of conducting airstrikes on the behalf of the Sudan Armed Forces. What happens in Sudan will effect its neighbors. Large numbers of people are constantly being displaced.  The Sudan Armed Forces continue to fight despite efforts to make a ceasefire. The objectives are to regain lost territory and subdue the RSF. The next step is to take back the capital Khartoum. If the government fails either the RSF takes over all of Sudan or it breaks up into smaller countries. After RSF violence a portion of Sudanese will never accept the RSF as a legitimate government. The map of East Africa could be changed depending on the war's outcome. 

South Sudanese Elections Are Postponed

 

South Sudan will postpone its elections. The government asserts it is to take a proper census, register political parties, and develop a new constitution. These statements are legitimate measures needed for functional government. The concern is that President Salva Kiir is using this time to extend his administration. The elections are now set to be held in December of 2026. The civil war that was waged for five years against Riek Machar ended in 2018. The conflict left 400,000 dead. The argument is that some authoritarianism will keep South Sudan from balkanizing. The civil war in Sudan also is a factor. The war there has effected oil exports, which South Sudan is dependent. Political opposition most likely will not be able to operate under a new national security act. Discontent among civil servants has emerged due to missed pay. The outcome of elections can be predicted. President Salva Kiir has been in power since 2011 and could remain for decades. Leaders such as Paul Kagame, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo,  Paul Biya, Denis Sassou Nguesso,  and Yoweri Museveni have been fixtures in African politics. The UN special envoy for South Sudan stated that the country was not ready for elections. The United Nations should not be dictating what South Sudan should do. The role of the UN is do conflict resolution and facilitate peace negations. Elections could be posted further into 2027. This effort is to extend President Salva Kiir's rule. South Sudan since its independence has known only one leader. If economic conditions become worse and discord is ignored South Sudan could fall into another civil war.   

Paul Kagame Retains The Rwandan Presidency

 

President Paul Kagame has won 99.18 % of the vote. This was based on provisional results. Many opposition political figures were not allowed to participate. Based on the election results from 2017 he won by a larger margin. Paul Kagame is not getting more popular. This is more of an indication of suppression of other political parties. Now 66 years old it appears President Kagame is becoming a president for life. At first presidential terms were seven years. Through constitutional amendment it was reduced to five in 2015. The question remains what happens after 2034. President Paul Kagame has not evaded controversy. The alleged  involvement with the M23 rebels   in the DRC, military operations in Mozambique,  and Rwandan migrants to the UK are pressing issues. The RPF party still maintains a majority. While the country does have a high GDP, most of the population has not seen an increase related to income. President Paul Kagame has been president since the year 2000. The youth have only known one president and for some it was the first time voting. The desire for change might be growing. The National Electoral Commission clearly favors President Paul Kagame and the RPF. This makes it difficult for opposition parties to operate. They barred eight candidates from running in the 2024 election. While the government could be transforming into a more authoritarian system, some progress related to infrastructure has been made. Hospitals and roads have increased in number. Paul Kagame could  attempt to be a president for life. Assuming the 2015 referendum is discarded at some stage it becomes a possibility.     

The Kenya Tax Protests

 

Ongoing protests are spreading through Kenya against changes in taxation. The finance bill has been a major source of contention among the public. President William Ruto stated that he will not sign the bill into law.  The demonstrations are more than just an unfair tax system. The cost of living has caused much strain on the public. National debt to other counties leaves Kenya at the mercy of foreign  creditors. When food, fuel, and other commodities become too expensive this causes a reaction. Kenya still is using the recommendations of the IMF. The finance bill was created as a means of making Kenya less dependent on borrowing. What this appears to be is taking the money of Kenyans and transferring it to other nations. The youth are getting more disgruntled with current economic conditions. President William Ruto's election triumph was with the help of the youth vote. Kenya faces a debt crisis and the interference of the International Monetary Fund. Unemployment and an distorted tax code demonstrate economic inequality. Kenya's total debt is estimated at $80 billion. The policy must be one that does not harm the Kenyan population. Kenya should consider negotiating debt cancellation. This would not be possible for the World Bank or IMF. Trying to get debt cancelled would be easier with certain nations. Doing so would help end the debt crisis faster. Some demonstrators want President William Ruto to resign. Kenya faces major challenges and the current policies generate more poverty. 

The Somaliland Port Agreement Dispute

 

Ethiopia and Somalia are in a dispute over sea access. Somaliland is a self-governing break away region. Somalia sees the leasing of the sea port in Berbera as a means to balkanize the country. The agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland is a lease for a naval base. The lease will last for 50 years with the purpose of commercial operations. Another part of the agreement is recognition of Somaliland as its own nation. This makes Somalia vexed and also concerned other nations will give Somaliland recognition. The Port of Berbera has been a significant investment for Ethiopia. This is not the first time Somaliland engaged in economic agreements without Mogadishu. The United Arab Emirates has also invested in the Berbera Port. Ethiopia will have access to Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The opportunity to expand trade with Europe could help Ethiopia. Somalia if it loses Somaliland will suffer economically. If Somalia was unified, it could benefit from its sea access. The concern is that Mogadishu could send troops to forcibly take Somaliland back. Ethiopia has fought the TPLF and has been involved in African Union missions in Somalia. Economics are going to be a source of tension between Ethiopia and Somalia. Ethiopia needs to approach the situation with caution. There is a fragile peace with Eritrea, internal tension with the Tigray, and disputes with Egypt over the Nile River. If there is going to be economic growth and development it needs to include the entire Horn of Africa. Ethiopia should not make agreements with de-facto states or disputed territories. Recognizing self-governing break away regions does undermine Somalia's national sovereignty. Doing this might get Ethiopia fast sea access, but creates an enemy. Djibouti must be a mediator in the dispute between Ethiopia, Somalia, and the status of Somaliland. 

South Sudan Declares Independence (2011)

 

A referendum was held in 2011 for South Sudanese independence. The result showed most wanted their own nation and President Omar Al-Bashir acknowledge the result. This seemed like the logical step after a the Second Sudanese Civil War, There still were issues that went unresolved. Oil revenues, ethnic tensions, border disputes, and the question of citizenship continue to be concerns. War in South Kordofan and Blue Nile broke out. The Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North was responsible for the hostilities. This also became connected to the violence in Darfur. South Sudan then fell into civil war between the years of 2013 to 2020. South Sudan is a country of multiple ethnic groups. The conflict between Neur and Dinka halted the process of development. The country has not developed a democratic political structure. Since 2011, it has known only one president Salva Kirr. President Salva Kirr justifies remaining in power asserting that South Sudan would collapse without him. The dissolving of parliament in 2021 in favor of a smaller representative body indicates he has no intention of sharing power. After 12 years of independence  the South Sudanese do not have their basic needs met. The aftermath of the Second Sudanese Civil War, South Sudanese Civil War, and an the rise of an authoritarian government left citizens in a precarious situation.   

Paul Kagame Seeking A Fourth Term

 

President Paul Kagame is going to run for a fourth term. Doing this is no shock considering the 2015 constitutional amendment . For two decades Rwandan politics has been dominated by one president.  The difference now is the African continent has been turning against longtime leaders and those deemed as puppets of  the West. Gabon, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Sudan have seen leaders deposed. Rwanda has had the same president since the year 2000. The presidential terms are seven years. This means Paul Kagame could remain in office up until 2034. Some suspect that another constitutional amendment could be made in the coming years. The end of presidential term limits would mean Paul Kagame could be president for life. The Green Party seeks to defeat him at the polls, but the Rwandan Patriotic Party has a powerful grip on the political system. Frank Habineza is seeking to become Rwanda's next president. The invention in Mozambique, the Rwandan asylum plan, and the status of relations with Uganda are going to be pivotal topics in the election. There is considerable controversy about the Rwandan government's support for the M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of The Congo. The concern is that Ugandan and Rwandan involvement in the DRC could create a wider regional conflict. The DRC and Ugandan forces have fought the Allied Democratic Forces. Armed groups and longtime leaders are making the region more unstable. There is the fear of what  would happen with the end of  the Paul Kagame era. This explains why voters might support him, even with  growing diplomatic concerns and military engagements.  

The Rapid Support Forces Revolt In Sudan

 

Sudan could be slipping into a state of civil war. The Rapid Support Forces have been engaged in combat with the Sudanese Army. Reports of fighting have been  documented throughout Sudan. Khartoum. Demonstrations against the Abdel Fattah al-Burhan regime continue. Sudan has remained unstable since the fall of the Omar al-Bashir government. The former regime is culpable for the conditions that currently exist. Sudan formed the Janjaweed militias to fight in Darfur. The region wanted to break off from Sudan. Those militias would form the RSF in 2013. The RSF was used for border security and fighting abroad. The RSF has participated in the war in Yemen. As the 2010s passed the security force became more powerful. The same force that Omar al-Bashir built up went on to participate in a coup against him. The RSF would also participate in the 2021 coup. Calls for their integration into the Sudanese military have been proposed. The paramilitary force would lose power if it were to do so. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo commander of the RSF could be seeking to take control of government. The military and paramilitary  forces have more power than Sudanese citizens. Those who want to see democratic and civilian rule continue to struggle. Another Sudanese Civil War will spread into neighboring countries. Libya, Chad, Ethiopia, the African Central Republic,  Egypt,  and Eritrea could be effected. The RSF poses the most formidable threat to  al-Burhan's rule. So far, the RSF rebellion has not escalated to the extent of being classified as a civil war. Much of that depends on the total strength of the RSF. 

Ethiopia Opens Peace Talks With The TPLF

 

The war with the Tigray region might be coming to an end. A peace settlement is being proposed, which hopes to end hostilities in Ethiopia. A concern has grown that the agreement might not hold. The TPLF appears to long for the days in which it had political dominance. The talks were held in both Kenya and South Africa. Much of the efforts also involved the African Union. The two year war could be reaching an end. The damage to the populace cannot be underestimated. The estimation of deaths possibly reached the thousands and many remain food insecure. The reports of a permanent peace settlement is welcomed. A hotline has also been established between Addis Abba and the TPLF. What must not happen is that a peace settlement devolves into a mere truce or ceasefire. The TPLF agreed to disarm its fighters. The time frame given was within 30 days. Depending on the exact size of the TPLF this might not be a realistic target. Questions remain about Eritrea's  role in the TPLF war. Eritrea was allied to Ethiopia a rare act of collaboration between the two countries. The TPLF still has grievances against Eritrea. East Africa is dealing with destabilization from conflict, food insecurity, terrorism, and ethnic hatreds. Ethiopia is at risk of falling into civil war similar to that of Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Ethiopia has to consider more representation of all ethnic groups in government. A federal system is a solution to issue related to lack of representation, racism, and political crisis. Reforms are needed to prevent the balkanization of the country. The African Union intends to send representatives to ensure that the peace agreement is being upheld. 

Flooding On The Rise In Sudan

 

Seasonal floods have occurred in Sudan. This has been common with the rising waters that come from Nile River. The concern is the growing intensity  of the floods. Rain fall and water levels are being altered by climate change. The increase in sea levels means flooding in costal areas. Sudan is not the only African country to struggle with floods. Uganda has seen some damage from rising waters. If too much rainfall happens this can cause landslides. When flooding stops, there are also devastating consequences. Homelessness and damage to infrastructure are major challenges. The death from flooding becomes more disturbing as governments show they have limited ability to save lives. Practical solutions do exist. Ditches, canals, and culverts must be expanded in Sudan. Infrastructure and other buildings should be as far away from  at risk areas. An emergency evacuation plan should be established to ensure public safety. A climate change management policy must be developed b the African Union to ensure the preservation of East Africa. The intensification of floods also comes at a time when drought is happening in certain areas of the region. 

Uganda Discovers An Estimated $12 Trillion Worth of Gold Deposits

 

Uganda has the potential to be one of Africa's richest nations. Gold deposits worth $ 12 trillion have been discovered. Combined with oil Uganda is in a position to see impressive economic growth in the coming  years. What should be done with the new found wealth is that it goes to public education, healthcare,  and infrastructure development. Doing so ensures a stable country and a rise in the standard of living. The persistent economic myth is that Africa is poor. African countries are not poor, rather their wealth has been stolen or their countries exploited by European nations. Corrupt and authoritarian regimes use wealth to empower themselves, rather than the citizens. Inflation is having a negative effect on the global economy and Uganda is not shielded from it. The Ugandan Central Bank had to increase its key interest rate. The public has to see economic improvement to share in the new found wealth. The boom in mining is positive economic news for East Africa. The Ugandan shilling could go up in value if it becomes backed by gold. Extracting the full potential of natural resources can ensure a prosperous country. The key is to have rational policies and competent economic management. 

Sudan Has Fallen To A Military Coup

 

After months of protests, another military coup has occurred in Sudan. Previous attempts were made to depose the civilian government, but were thwarted. The transitional government has been dissolved and a state of emergency declared. The ruling military junta has promised elections for 2023. Prime Minister Abdalla Homdok is being detained. Prime Minister Homdok failed to address the growing discord of the population exhausted from the major changes that came with the fall of Omar al-Bashir. Two years have passed since the fall of the regime, but stability and democratization has remained elusive.   The Sudanese public has reacted with more demonstrations being held in various cities. Concerned citizens took to the streets in both Khartoum and Omdurman. A large source of contention was the issue of handing over Omar al-Bashir to the International Crimes Court. This split the Sovereign Council The economic conditions have become worse. Inflation and the lack of certain goods was not being fully addressed by Prime Minister Homdok. Even with foreign aid, this has not produced dramatic improvements. The African Union, United Nations, and Arab League have expressed opposition to the political developments. Homdok's removal was a combination of rebel groups and political parties working with the military. Sudan's challenge is like  Algeria, Nigeria,  and Egypt.  The military is an obstacle to political change. Other African nations are dealing with military take overs such as Mali and Guinea. The African continent is seeing an increase in military coups over the past three years.  

Omar al-Bashir Will Be Charged For The 1989 Coup

Bashir waves to supporters in a rally in 1989.

Omar al-Bashir's  trial began today for the 1989 coup. While he has been charged for crimes against the civilians during protests and allegations of corruption,  this charge is different. His presidency was removed by extralegal means by the military. There was another coup in 2019, which saw his regime collapse. The protests were not enough to remove him from power, but loss of military support was. The trial cannot be fair or completely unbiased considering a new government was formed from another military coup. The court should seek to maintain a proper due process. There were suggestions that Omar al-Bashir could be put in custody of the ICC. This would be a mistake and undermine Sudanese sovereignty. If it is proven he committed crimes in Sudan, then a Sudanese court should charge him. Omar al-Bashir  can be charged for war crimes in the Second Sudanese Civil War and the intervention in Yemen. The only reason charges related to Yemen will be excluded is due to Saudi Arabia. Sudan continues to be involved in Saudi Arabia's war, despite reduction of troops. This withdraw could strain relations between Sudan and Saudi Arabia. Bashir's lawyers could use the current political situation and the fact he was not voted out of office to their advantage. The trial will certainly generate much interest and conversation throughout Africa. 

Ethiopian-Egyptian Dispute Reaches An Impasse

Attempts at negotiating an agreement  regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have stalled. Tensions are escalating between Ethiopia and Egypt. The problem is related to water access to the Nile River. As climate change becomes more dramatic, water resources become more valuable. Access to clean water is not only about profit, but survival itself. Nourishing a population and essential to agriculture water security in Africa is a serious issue. President Adullah Sisi of Egypt  and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are faced with both internal and regional challenges. Ethiopia must recognize Oromo aspirations and avoid conflict, while maintaining peace with Eritrea. Egypt has to deal with economic instability and  be aware of the disorder in Libya. Sudan's condition by be an area of consensus between the two countries. These internal and external problems may prevent a war. The risk is too high, if diplomacy can still be effective. The Nile dispute will not be solved quickly. Egypt requested a UN intervention to help with the standoff. A better option would probably to address grievances at the African Union. There was only one time that these two countries went to war. The Ethio-Egyptian War lasted from 1874 to 1876 and resulted in a victory for the Abyssinian Empire. The current situation is not as intense, but could escalate.   

President Pierre Nkurunziza Has Died

Burundi has announced that President Pierre Nkurunzia has died. The cause of death was a heart attack. He was only 55 years old. There has been a level of skepticism about the official cause of death. Some wonder if it was COVID-19 related complications. There exists no concrete evidence of what really happened in Karuzi Hospital or what President Nkurunzia's health condition was . Too many are quick to say there was an assassination or conspiracy. Since the announcement a seven day period of national mourning has been declared. Burundi will go through a major political change. President Pierre Nkurunzia had been leading the country since 2005. The civil war had devastated most of the country and ever since instability has been a part of Burundi's politics. When President Nkurunzia announced he was running for a third term, this sparked protests in 2015. Pierre Nkurunzia  was accused of repression and human rights violations during his presidency. Supporters cite his leadership brought peace after the Burundian Civil War (1993-2005). Others criticized his repressive actions directed at the political opposition. Elections will be held in August, this time in a post- Nkurunzia political atmosphere.  

Prime Minister Abiy Amed Wins The Nobel Peace Prize

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Amed has won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his effort to bring about a solution with the conflict with Eritrea. The two countries have been in long disputes and Eritrea fought a  war of independence from Ethiopia.  Prime Minister Abiy Amed's efforts should be seen as an example to various world leaders in regards to why diplomacy works. There still remains much to be done in East Africa. Ethiopia struggles with ethnic conflict and the discrimination of the Oromo peoples cannot be ignored. The question of wider political freedoms and reducing restrictions on the press should be major priorities. Ethnic conflict and war can easily derail progress, which must be reduced at all costs. Ethiopia and Eritrea must enhance economic and political cooperation for the sake of regional stability.Other African nations can contribute by acting as mediators in disputes. The conflict and destabilization in Somalia could also pose a problem as well as Kenya's involvement. Prime Minister Abiy Amed has accomplished much in a short period,but it is important to keep the political momentum going. Part of this program must include domestic and foreign policy reforms. 

Kenya Bans Child Adoption by Foreign Nationals

The Kenyan government has officially banned adoption of Kenyan children by foreign nationals. This may appear to be some form of xenophobia, however cases of abuse have occurred. Corruption involving missionaries or the possible trafficking of children has been cited as a cause for concern. The issue became so prominent that President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto had a special cabinet meeting at the State House to address growing abuses. New policies and regulations are going to be enforced in association with the Ministry of Labor and Social protection. This revelation demonstrates that Kenya must do more to protect its youth. For too long the future of the continent has been taken to either North America or Europe at the expense of African nations. A temporary or extended ban may be necessary to halt longtime abuses. If new policies are to work, the foster care system it Kenya requires improvement to ensure the safety and well being of orphaned children. Foster care in various nations around the globe need more state assistance. Welfare has been given a negative connotation, but in terms of the foster care system it can help. Kenya must invest in creating a stable environment for children so that they can be successors to running the nation. More policies that revolve around public works and social programs will ensure Kenya's success.