The NRM Endorses Yoweri Museveni For President of Uganda

 

Yoweri Museveni is seeking another term as president of Uganda. The National Resistance Movement has been the dominant political party since 1986. Uganda resembles a one party state, with opposition being suppressed. The NRM endorsed President Museveni, which it has done so for decades. President Yoweri Museveni has remained in power not only because of the loyalty of the NRM, but also changes to the constitution. Age and term limits have been removed. The major challenger to the NRM is the National Unity Platform. Political opponents are facing prison and lack of press freedom hinders criticism of the Museveni administration. President Yoweri Museveni stated in his nomination acceptance speech he wants to see Uganda become a high middle income country. The question remains what is the excuse for lack of progress for 39 years. The only argument the NRM has is that Uganda remains stable. Even this is fragile. Tensions with Rwanda, intervention in the DRC, and the Lord's Resistance Army indicate limited control. If certain branches of government lose independence, Museveni's government will resemble that of an Idi Amin dictatorship. The NRM was not elected in 1986, rather they took Kampala in the Ugandan Bush War. The Milton Obote government was never able to resolve the conflict or create unity. The Obote government was deposed in 1985 by Tito Okello. The military regime  could not defeat the NRM. The NRM would from 1986 to 1994 fight the Uganda's People's Army, Uganda's People's Democratic Army, LRA,  and the Holy Spirt Movement. The NRM uses the fear of Uganda falling into civil war as means of retaining power. Other Ugandans become concerned about what a post-Museveni Uganda would become. 

The Status of Togo

 

The change in government in Gabon will have an influence over Togo. Togo also shares a border with Burkina Faso, which has a new military regime. President Faure Gnassingbe has been the Togolese head of state since 2005. Since 1967 one family has ruled Togo. Gabon and Togo are similar in this regard. The sons inherited the presidency from their fathers. The northern region has become more unstable with infiltration of terrorist groups. Part of this was the reason for the drastic change in state security. The ministry of the armed forces became part of the presidency. The intent is not about fighting terrorist organizations or armed groups. The policy established in 2022 was designed to secure the power of the Gnassingbe family. The measure was a presidential decree to ensure President Faure Gnassingbe remains in power. The state will become more authoritarian in the face of changing governments in the region. Political opposition is not strong enough to vote President Faure Gnassingbe out of office. Demonstrations were held in 2017 and 2018. These had little effect on the government. If ECOWAS actually does intervene in Niger, Togo would probably support it. The hope is that if there was a coup in Togo, ECOWAS would come to the aid of President Gnassingbe. A conflict would draw Benin in as well, while destabilizing Ghana and Nigeria. The parliament approved the constitutional change which would allow Faure to remain in office to 2030. The next election would be in 2025 and terms are a total of five years. President Faure Gnassingbe could  convince the parliament to eliminate term limits completely. Considering the changes to the security apparatus, it appears Faure will not be subject to removal like other longtime leaders in West Africa. The presidential election of 2025 could tear the Togo apart. The Gnassingbe family's grip on power is similar to the governments  of Syria, North Korea, Chad,  and Cambodia. One family has dominance over the nation's politics. Togo as the years pass could be built up as a bulwark against the newly formed military regimes in West Africa.    

President Ali Bongo Ondimba Has Lost Power To The Military

 

Gabon has become another African country that deposed a longtime leader. President Ali Bongo Ondimba has been placed under house arrest by the military. This comes after a contentious election in which Ali Bongo was declared the winner. The Bongo Ondimba family has ruled Gabon since 1967. Omar Bongo, the father of the current president was supported by France and developed an authoritarian power structure. When Omar Bongo died in 2009, Ali Bongo became his successor. Debates remain about how free and fair elections have been since the Bongo Ondimba family have been in politics. A portion of Gabonese welcomed the coup, because it meant that a new form of government could come into existence. Voting was not going to remove the Bongos and  presidential term limits were never discussed. Protests against the government did happen in 2016. A coup attempt in 2019 was foiled. The military launched another coup in 2023 and so far it appears successful. Gabon has oil and mineral resources, but the Bongos failed to improve living standards of the Gabonese. France has interest in keeping a regime in power to extract these resources. The change in government certainly will get the attention of Cameroon , Equatorial Guinea, and the Republic of Congo. Paul Biya, Dennis Sassou Nguesso, and Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo could come to the realization their countries could be subject to military coups. A major political shift that started in 2020 is spreading across the African continent. Either the new regimes will revert to another form of authoritarianism or follow an alternative political path. Gabon now joins Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in the group of African countries under military rule.  

Aung San Suu Kyi's Prison Term Reduced By The Military Regime

 

Aung San Suu Kyi had  six years taken off her prison term. She still faces 25 years. The charges against her have no legal basis. The regime itself is criminal seeing as it seized power when it did not like the results of the elections.  The objective by the military government is to have her perish in confinement. The junta has claimed that 7,000 prisoners have been released. How long they remain free depends on the political conditions in Myanmar . Public discord is growing with the military junta announcing elections are postponed. Even if a full pardon was given to Suu Kyi , public rage would not dissipate. While Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned, fighting spreads to other regions. The 2021 coup has sparked rebellions that could turn into full scale civil war. Other countries remain silent about the situation. The EU countries have abandoned Suu Kyi due to the Rohingya ethnic conflict and Myanmar's growing relationship with China. The military can only imprison Aung San Suu Kyi, but execution would only case a larger revolt. The counter move is to extend the state of emergency. The military realizes that Aung San Suu Kyi is a popular political figure. Keeping her imprisoned they think will diminish the influence of the National League for Democracy. The longer Aung Suu Kyi remains in prison the more she will be seen as a symbol of resistance. The military might have united the citizens in ways former governments have not. The Burmese population are coming to a consensus the military should not rule.    

The State of Thai-Burmese Relations

 

The military regime in Myanmar has caused a change in relations with Thailand. The influx of refugees in Thailand has also impacted domestic politics of Thailand. Both countries are under the influence of the military having involvement in political affairs. Thailand had a military coup in 2014 and Myanmar's democratically elected government was deposed in 2021. While Thailand did have elections, the military influence was still present. What happens in Thailand's elections will have an effect on Myanmar. The policy is to support the military regime of Min Aung Hlaing. Both governments are dependent on one another for survival. The case with Thailand is that political opposition has more freedom, but is not effective enough to make dramatic change. The Thai monarchy holds respect among the population and acts as a unifying force in the country. A military regime in Thailand would never try to abolish it, but for the most part it is ceremonial. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha realizes that the junta in Myanmar secures his position in Thailand. As Myanmar slides further into a state of civil war, the possibility of Thai intervention becomes greater. Thailand might not want more refugees to come into their country. Thailand's Myanmar policy increases tension with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Myanmar and Thailand could become isolated in their own region due to certain actions taken domestically and beyond their borders. Depending on what government is in power in Thailand, the Min Aung Hlaing regime has a close ally.  

The Rapid Support Forces Revolt In Sudan

 

Sudan could be slipping into a state of civil war. The Rapid Support Forces have been engaged in combat with the Sudanese Army. Reports of fighting have been  documented throughout Sudan. Khartoum. Demonstrations against the Abdel Fattah al-Burhan regime continue. Sudan has remained unstable since the fall of the Omar al-Bashir government. The former regime is culpable for the conditions that currently exist. Sudan formed the Janjaweed militias to fight in Darfur. The region wanted to break off from Sudan. Those militias would form the RSF in 2013. The RSF was used for border security and fighting abroad. The RSF has participated in the war in Yemen. As the 2010s passed the security force became more powerful. The same force that Omar al-Bashir built up went on to participate in a coup against him. The RSF would also participate in the 2021 coup. Calls for their integration into the Sudanese military have been proposed. The paramilitary force would lose power if it were to do so. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo commander of the RSF could be seeking to take control of government. The military and paramilitary  forces have more power than Sudanese citizens. Those who want to see democratic and civilian rule continue to struggle. Another Sudanese Civil War will spread into neighboring countries. Libya, Chad, Ethiopia, the African Central Republic,  Egypt,  and Eritrea could be effected. The RSF poses the most formidable threat to  al-Burhan's rule. So far, the RSF rebellion has not escalated to the extent of being classified as a civil war. Much of that depends on the total strength of the RSF.