Hun Sen Will Hand Power To Hun Manet

 

Hun Sen is one of the longest serving heads of state in the world. The longtime Cambodian prime minister made the announcement he will resign. Hun Sen's son Hun Manet will be his successor . This was a surprise considering that the Cambodian People's Party has remained dominant. The election victory has been questioned as many cite the political opposition was unable to operate. A 38 year reign of Hun Sen continued enabled by an autocratic state apparatus. The National Rescue Party was in no position to challenge the rule of the Hun family. Prime Minister Hun Sen will not retire from public life. He will maintain involvement in the government. The National Election Committee has the ability to prevent certain political parties from running. Hun Manet has an advantage coming into office. He is chief of Cambodia's army. This means the military has loyalty to him and can be used to suppress revolts. Cambodia's political system resembles that of Thailand and North Korea. The military has large amounts of influence in Thailand. North Korea has a dynastic system of succession under a one party state. Countries like Syria, Togo, and Chad share this trait even though they are not monarchies. Hun Sen's term is five years, but he did not specify a date for the transfer of power. No specific reason was made public for making the change. Laos and Vietnam are going to have more interest in what happens in Cambodia. Myanmar might find an ally in a Hun Manet regime.   

The State of Thai-Burmese Relations

 

The military regime in Myanmar has caused a change in relations with Thailand. The influx of refugees in Thailand has also impacted domestic politics of Thailand. Both countries are under the influence of the military having involvement in political affairs. Thailand had a military coup in 2014 and Myanmar's democratically elected government was deposed in 2021. While Thailand did have elections, the military influence was still present. What happens in Thailand's elections will have an effect on Myanmar. The policy is to support the military regime of Min Aung Hlaing. Both governments are dependent on one another for survival. The case with Thailand is that political opposition has more freedom, but is not effective enough to make dramatic change. The Thai monarchy holds respect among the population and acts as a unifying force in the country. A military regime in Thailand would never try to abolish it, but for the most part it is ceremonial. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha realizes that the junta in Myanmar secures his position in Thailand. As Myanmar slides further into a state of civil war, the possibility of Thai intervention becomes greater. Thailand might not want more refugees to come into their country. Thailand's Myanmar policy increases tension with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Myanmar and Thailand could become isolated in their own region due to certain actions taken domestically and beyond their borders. Depending on what government is in power in Thailand, the Min Aung Hlaing regime has a close ally.