Thailand's Growing Political Instability

 

Paetongtran Shinawatra has been removed from office. The charge was an ethics violation, however upon further analysis there was a political motivation. A phone call with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen was deemed an ethics violation. Prime Minister Paetongtarn's crime was she criticized the Thai military. The phone call was and discussion was not a serious criminal offense. No evidence exists of acts of treason or conspiracy. The dialogue between two figures was an act of diplomacy and conflict resolution. The removal of another Thai head of state could result in another coup. Thailand's 2006 and 2014 coups demonstrate that the military has more power than a civilian government. The Shinawatras can never govern effectively  due to the interference of the Thai military and the weaponization of the Constitutional Court. Whoever becomes the next prime minister will confront political factionalism, the military, and the attacks from the Constitutional Court. The elites, military, and the monarchy itself do not support a liberal democratic system. Various political parties are fighting to get majorities in the parliament. When neither can obtain dominance, fragile coalition governments are formed. The political impasses are used as a justification for the military to depose the government.  The Pheu Thai Party's strategy is to seek a means of dissolving parliament. Taking this action would be a means of preventing a military coup or deadlock with other political parties.  Thailand has the risk of becoming more like Myanmar and a wider conflict with Cambodia breaking out. The Thai public might want some authoritarianism as an alternative to ineffective government. Snap elections could be coming in the following months, yet this will not resolve domestic and regional challenges.  

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra Suspension And The Hun Sen Scandal

 

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been suspended from her governance duties. The scandal relates to a phone call with Hun Sen. The former prime minister of Cambodia is now president of the Senate. Thailand and Cambodia are now involved in a escalating  border dispute. The call was seen by the more nationalistic elements of Thailand as a violation of ethics. The discussion was about the current tension between the two countries. Instead, it was exaggerated to be some act of treason or evidence Prime Minister Paetongtran is a puppet. Neither of these accusations have evidence. Hun Sen during the phone call expressed harsh criticism of the Thai military. The real scandal is that the Thai military has more control over government than the civilian leadership. The Hun Sen scandal is about the Thai military attempting to stop peaceful resolutions with Cambodia. Thailand could be headed for another coup. The pattern seems similar to 2006 and 2014. A few senators in Thailand submitted a petition for her removal from office. The Constitutional Court then took the recommendation of investigating ethics violations. This is an attempt to criminalize political opponents. The Thai military was responsible for the removal of her other family members who were elected to office. Yingluck Shinawatra was removed from office by the Constitutional Court. The murder of a Cambodian soldier on the border caused a sharp decline in diplomatic relations. The only means to improve conditions is to discuss matters. A phone call attempting to prevent a war should not be met with suspension form office. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has only 15 days to organize legal defense for her case. The verdict most likely has been determined without the trial. If heads of state cannot engage in dialogue with foreign leaders, resolving issues will be impossible. The Hun Sen scandal is about the Thai military trying to sabotage peaceful resolutions to the Cambodian border dispute.   

Earthquake Strike Myanmar and Thailand

 

Myanmar and Thailand have experienced devasting earthquakes. Natural disasters produce a series of long term problems for public health, infrastructure, and housing. Homelessness will increase as a result of destroyed buildings. The military regime in Myanmar has no plans to address the concern of people who lost their homes. Reports estimate that the deaths in Myanmar are 1,600. The number could increase as more debris is cleared. Thailand's capital was damaged from the earthquake. Roads and bridges were also destroyed from the natural disaster. Rebuilding infrastructure is going to require major investments. Myanmar and Thailand might struggle to generate the funds for reconstruction. The military regime also is hostile to external contact. Hospitals are overwhelmed with the injured. The earthquake reveals the need to engineer earthquake resistant buildings. The earthquake was so powerful that skyscrapers in Bangkok were mot spared. The reason Myanmar is so susceptible to earthquakes relates to its location. It is located on a convergence area of the Earth's four major tectonic plates. Myanmar rests on the Sagaing fault. This explains why Mandalay was hit with immense force. Buildings that are older are going to be more vulnerable to collapse. Thailand's older buildings do not meet the safety construction standard. Vigorous earthquake protection for buildings must be required by law. Although regulations do exist, it appears most were not followed in Thailand.    

The Rise of Paetongtarn Shinawatra

 

The Shinawatra dynasty appears to be resilient. Thailand has made Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Coups have not stopped the family from having political influence. Much of their power resides with the royal elites. Some question the new prime minister's credentials.  Paetongtarn Shinawatra background is mostly in business, not government. The change in government means a shift in foreign policy. What this means for neighbors such as Myanmar and Laos is unknown. Thailand has since 2014 seen political instability and corruption. Both Yinluck and Thaksin Shinawatra were deposed by coups. There is the fear that Paetongtarn could have a similar fate. Her promise to boost economic growth may make some Thai citizens optimistic. However, such promises have been made before. The return of the Shinwatras demonstrate the decline into an illiberal state. The alliance with conservatives and royal elites undermines the democratic system. Coups and a corrupt Thai Constitutional Court prevent anyone from making needed changes to the political system. The military and judiciary need reforms. The royalty  has an abnormal amount of influence, which should not be in a constitutional monarchy. Paetongtarn Shinawatra might be a puppet to the conservative and royal political factions. The youth are growing more frustrated with the lack of substantive change. Paetongtarn Shinawatra could face both public discord and internal confrontation in government.     

Thaksin Shinawatra Returns To Thailand

 

The former prime minister has returned to Thailand. Thaksin Shinawatra has been in exile since the 2006 coup. Shortly after his arrival he was sent to prison. Reports now state that Thaksin suffered a medical emergency that required hospitalization. He faces charges of corruption, which Thaksin insists are politically motivated. The question remains how legitimate are the charges if they were made by a military government. Rumors have circulated that the former prime minister reach an agreement with the military establishment. The option available to him would be to seek a royal pardon. Thaksin does still have some political influence and imprisonment could have implications in future elections. The military  backed parties can always do a coup by stealth. Thaksin's businesses have been subject to scrutiny. The Advance Info Service contracts connection to the military indicated a monopoly run solely by the Shinawatra family. Telecommunications were not his only business ventures. Not all of his companies were successful, but the one that survived made him wealthy. The major crime he is accused of his hiding his assets. This indictment was made by the National Counter Corruption Commission. Thaksin Shinawatra  demonstrates that wealth has a negative effect on democratic institutions. His return does indicate a shift in Thailand's political atmosphere. However, many still remain in exile due to the military.   

The State of Thai-Burmese Relations

 

The military regime in Myanmar has caused a change in relations with Thailand. The influx of refugees in Thailand has also impacted domestic politics of Thailand. Both countries are under the influence of the military having involvement in political affairs. Thailand had a military coup in 2014 and Myanmar's democratically elected government was deposed in 2021. While Thailand did have elections, the military influence was still present. What happens in Thailand's elections will have an effect on Myanmar. The policy is to support the military regime of Min Aung Hlaing. Both governments are dependent on one another for survival. The case with Thailand is that political opposition has more freedom, but is not effective enough to make dramatic change. The Thai monarchy holds respect among the population and acts as a unifying force in the country. A military regime in Thailand would never try to abolish it, but for the most part it is ceremonial. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha realizes that the junta in Myanmar secures his position in Thailand. As Myanmar slides further into a state of civil war, the possibility of Thai intervention becomes greater. Thailand might not want more refugees to come into their country. Thailand's Myanmar policy increases tension with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Myanmar and Thailand could become isolated in their own region due to certain actions taken domestically and beyond their borders. Depending on what government is in power in Thailand, the Min Aung Hlaing regime has a close ally.  

Prayut Chan-ocha Has Been Suspended As Prime Minister

 

The rule of  Prayut Chan-ocha could be coming to an end. Thailand's Constitutional  Court has suspended him. The coup leader turned prime minister had been in power since 2014. His argument for remaining in power was that Thailand was stability was established. The Thai constitution has term limits and critics say that the Chan-ocha has violated the rule. The counter argument was that the 2014 coup should not count seeing as it was done under an emergency. The other claim is that his term really began in 2017 and that the new constitution should  enable him to seeking reelection. There will be a legal battle between Chan-ocha and the opposition. The challenge that faces Thailand is military dominance of politics and political corruption. The court tends to favor the military instead of opposition groups. While dismissed, Prayut Chan-ocha has not been instructed not to engage in political activity. If he successfully defeats suspension, he might run for office again. Prayut Chan-ocha could serve to 2027 if he wins the general election. Voting alone will not bring about change in Thailand. Coups happen when the powerful are fearful of the citizens asserting themselves. The only way a democratic political system can develop is if the military is separated from government.Even under civilian rule its influence can be felt. Prayut Chan-ocha might not be going anywhere, despite the growing demonstrations calling for his resignation.     

Protests Break Out in Thailand

 

Protests have broken out with Thai citizens demanding more protection of rights and accountability in government.  There is a difference in this developing movement. The monarchy appears to getting criticism and constitutional reform may be an objective. The military and monarchy have long been the stable force in Thai government. The structure by nature has been repressive  cracking down on press freedom and basic human rights. Since the military coup in 2014, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has been leading Thailand with little to show in terms of reform. The protests he states are endangering the security of the nation. The demand for constitutional reform will not go away as long as the youth remain dissatisfied. The alliance between the military and monarchy has been a hinderance to the political participation of the average Thai. Calls are growing for a general strike. Thailand has had coups before and mass political unrest. Prime Minister Chan-ocha may not be defeated so easily as long as the military supports him. He has pledged his loyalty to the monarchy and so far that collaboration has not been broken. Student groups have become more politically active organizing reform rallies. The demands include ending military influence in politics, a new constitution, ending royal offices, and dismantling the royal guards.