Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry Resigns

 

Ariel Henry announced he will resign as prime minister  of  Haiti. This was not so much of a resignation, but an overthrow of an unpopular government . When visiting Kenya about deploying police to Haiti, gang violence escalated. Henry was not elected and was appointed prime minister after the Moise assassination. Haiti has not had elections since 2016. The country might have democratic institutions, but it functions as an authoritarian system in practice. Ariel Henry refused to step down when his term of service expired. Henry currently is in Puerto  Rico. Haiti has been destabilized by US interreference and United Nations missions. The jail break of 4,000 gang members caused a spike in violence. What these gangs could transform into are organized militias and armed groups. Certain gangs are not focused on violent crime, rather aspire to seize power. The G9 Family and Allies might be seeking higher political objectives. Using the term gang would no longer be correct. The United Nations is now planning to sent another mission into Haiti. Presented as a multinational security support mission it is another invasion of the country. Kenya will lead this mission with a force of 1,000 police officers. What it amounts to is police officers acting a substitutes for soldiers. Police are not trained to fight wars or armed groups. Law enforcement differs from peacekeeping missions and military combat. If President William Ruto gets Kenya to commit to this operation it will be a major humanitarian crisis. The involvement of  multiple countries and the UN to stop gangs is puzzling. The United Nations never did missions against MS-13.  Haiti is of interest to US policy for influence in the Caribbean. This explains why the Biden administration did not condemn Prime Minister Ariel Henry. Ariel Henry was denied entry back into the country and by definition exiled. Resignation was not what occurred in reality. The official policy of the transitional government has not been made public. If they do allow for another occupation by the United Nations, public discord will grow.    

Protests Break Out in Thailand

 

Protests have broken out with Thai citizens demanding more protection of rights and accountability in government.  There is a difference in this developing movement. The monarchy appears to getting criticism and constitutional reform may be an objective. The military and monarchy have long been the stable force in Thai government. The structure by nature has been repressive  cracking down on press freedom and basic human rights. Since the military coup in 2014, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has been leading Thailand with little to show in terms of reform. The protests he states are endangering the security of the nation. The demand for constitutional reform will not go away as long as the youth remain dissatisfied. The alliance between the military and monarchy has been a hinderance to the political participation of the average Thai. Calls are growing for a general strike. Thailand has had coups before and mass political unrest. Prime Minister Chan-ocha may not be defeated so easily as long as the military supports him. He has pledged his loyalty to the monarchy and so far that collaboration has not been broken. Student groups have become more politically active organizing reform rallies. The demands include ending military influence in politics, a new constitution, ending royal offices, and dismantling the royal guards.  

Lebanon's Increasing Instability

Lebanon has experienced a bombing in Beirut. The country continues to struggle with with economic decline and a leadership unable to solve the country's problems. Protests over unemployment and increased taxation has brought the country to the brink. The explosion of the port in the capital does not appear to be an act of terrorism. Many theories have been expressed, yet the government remains silent. Some have speculated that it was a strike by Israel to counter Hezbollah. Protests have been occuring since October of 2019 and there is no end in sight. Food security has declined, currency had rapidly devalued, and the population grows more vexed. The ruling elite have allowed Lebanon to fall into long term crisis that could spread regionally. A civil war in Syria and a more aggressive Israel could spark a larger war. Iran has significant involvement in Lebanon. Iranian influence has been growing immensely since Iraq ceased to be stable. Currently, the government of Lebanon has launched an investigation into the port explosion. There is little faith from the population that substantial action will be taken. The explosion could have been caused by the ignition of ammonium nitrate. Although there were not mass amounts of deaths, rebuilding will take large amounts of funding. With little revenue and limited possibility of assistance, Lebanon could be heading for mass insurrection. The removal of rubble and debris has become a symbol of a country on the verge of collapse. Options are limited. Lebanon can either seek loans from either Saudi Arabia or France. Neither of these options are favorable. France a former colonizer of Lebanon would make citizens more suspicious of the government. Saudi Arabia has made attempts to make Lebanon another front in their regional competition with Iran. Whatever happens next, peaceful solutions are limited.   

The US Charges Nicolas Maduro with Drug Trafficking and Proposes a Plan of Political Transition

The Trump administration no longer recognizes President Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. New charges of  drug trafficking have been made, but so far there has been little evidence to suggest that his government has a full scale operation. The United States has been attempting to interfere in the internal affairs of Venezuela under the claim of protection of human rights. The ulterior motive is to get access to the country's oil and important geographic location. There has been a coordinated attempt to depose democratically elected leftist governments across Latin America. Bolivia and Brazil have been subject to a right-wing resurgence. There is a cash reward for President Maduro's arrest issued by the US government. The Trump administration has suggested that military action could be a possible option, if  President Nicolas Maduro is able to survive the political crisis.The pretext seems similar to the 1989 invasion of Panama or the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The US transition plan demands that both Juan Guaido and Nicloas Maduro  step aside. Doing so would mean an interim government would be installed. Sanctions would be lifted only when the process is over by both the US and EU. Neither leader would be willing to do this. Venezuela may find itself in direct conflict with the United States. Venezuela has an alliance with Cuba,  but other countries may not come to its aid if war were to break out.     

The Protests Lebanon

Economic crisis and political turmoil have forced the citizens of Lebanon to the streets in protest. The government caused the demonstrations due to imposing new taxes and refusal to move ahead on reforms. These demonstrations are probably going to continue with major impacts on the political culture of Lebanon. The country seems to be slipping into instability and memories of the civil war remain fresh in the minds of the older generation. So far, these protests are becoming more effective with the resignation of  Saad Hariri. The fear as that the country could become more erratic if he left office. However, his inability to solve basic problems related to Lebanon have damaged his political career. The question remains whether or not the Future Movement will remain a political force in the country. Growing unemployment, fiscal austerity, and a network of government corruption has caused mass public discord. Political factionalism and sectarianism could tear the country apart. This further complicates matters when the civil war in Syria is active and Israel seeks to challenge Hezbollah. When it was announced that ex-finance minister Mohammed Safadi was going to run for Prime Minister , this only vexed the public more. Protests in Tripoli and Beirut erupted with the announcement of his nomination. Safadi withdrew his nomination, yet there still is no prime minister. The next government faces the challenge of meeting public demands and programs of reform.    

Zine el Abidine Ben Ali Has Died

The former president of Tunisia Zine el Abidine Ben Ali has died in exile. When the Arab Spring erupted in 2011, he fled to Saudi Arabia. As Tunisia attempts to change course in its politics it seems that a chapter in its history has ended. Ben Ali's leadership was authoritarian, but rarely was condemned by the EU countries or US. The reason was that he was largely compliant with their interests. This explains why there were no demands from western nations that he resign like in Libya or Egypt. He was given safe protection, but that did not stop him from having a trial  absentia . President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali was known to ban political parties on the basis of fighting Islamic fundamentalist groups.What this was really doing was stopping political opposition to his rule. It was in 1991 that he banned the Nahdah Party. Zine el Abidine Ben Ali came to power through a coup in 1987 removing longtime President Habib Bourguiba. Corruption during the Ben Ali presidency was widespread and it was suspected that his family as well as allies were embezzling public funds. It has been alleged that Ben Ali had a Swiss bank account, which was frozen after he fled the country. It is uncertain if Tunisia can get these funds back, even though it may be the country's own money. President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali's rule left  Tunisia in a state of high unemployment,poverty, and general decline. Tunisia may easily revert back to an authoritarian model if Islamist parties gain more power.