India Strikes Pakistan

 

India has attacked Pakistan. This follows an act of  terrorism that killed Indian tourist in Kashmir.. Kashmir is divided by Pakistan and India. Both the two Asian powers occupy the area. India blamed the Pakistani government for the murder of 26 Indian tourist. While it is known that Pakistan has funded and supported armed groups, little evidence exists this was a government directed operation. Pakistan has been fighting terrorist organizations and multiple armed groups. The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan created more turbulence. Operation Sindoor was launched in both Pakistan and Pakistani occupied Kashmir. The military strikes targeted Jaish e-Mohammed  and Lashkar e-Tayyiba. There have been three major Indo-Pakistani Wars. These occurred in 1947, 1965, and 1971. The Kargil War broke out in 1999. Fears are growing of another Indo-Pakistani War. The situation becomes more precarious with nuclear weapons. An Indian and Pakistani nuclear war devastate the region and the world. Mutual assured destruction could act as restraint for the two countries. An Indo-Pakistani War would complicate the BRICS association. China tends to favor Pakistan in its foreign policy. India is a member of BRICS which could cause tension. A regional war would create refugees. They would either flee to Central Asia, Europe, or Australia. Air strikes kill more civilians than enemy combatants. The Bharatiya Janata Party promotes anti-Muslim and Islamophobic policies. The BJP Party are Hindu nationalists and use anti-Muslim rhetoric to  obtain political support. The vituperation and abuse gets worse around India's election cycle. The hatred will intensify  with a war with Pakistan. Reports of the air forces of both countries are  fighting one another. It remains unclear how Pakistan will retaliate. India tends to win wars against Pakistan, but conditions in the region are different from the 20th century.  

Chad and Senegal Want To Break Military Ties With France

 

Chad has announced it will no longer be part of the defense cooperation agreement with France. Senegal also announced it intends to expel French soldiers from its territory. An estimated 1,000 troops are present in Chad. Senegal does have French military bases. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye expressed the change in position as Senegal asserting its national sovereignty. The Senegalese president was elected to office with the goal drastic political change. President Mahamat Deby being the strongman of Chad, no longer wants to follow the dictates of France. His ambition could be to have more influence in Sudan and South Sudan. Breaking military ties with France shows that President Mahamat Deby is not a puppet to a foreign power. President Deby is showing that he  is going to be a longtime authoritarian leader in the region. France was forced out of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Military coups were the reaction to rage regarding France's occupation and being a destabilizing force. France could either attempted to undermine Chad or Senegal through armed groups or terrorist organizations. Another alternative would be to try to create a sphere of influence between Algeria and Morocco. This would be halted due to the fact both Algeria and Morocco disagree with the status of the Western Sahara. Algeria tends to favor its independence and most of the African continent is moving to that political position. Chad and Senegal could align closer to Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. The developments might not be a rise of Pan-African consciousness, but a repudiation of French interference in the affairs of the Sahel region.     

President Alberto Fujimori Accuses Generals of Assassination Plot (1992)

 

Former President Alberto Fujimori passed away from cancer and  Peru remains divided about his legacy. Despite trials, questions remain about the extent of the criminal activity of his administration. Alberto Fujimori in 1992 accused some of his generals of an assassination plot. Doubts remain if these generals were actually attempting coup or assassination. Around April of 1992 Alberto Fujimori launched the self-coup. President Fujimori dissolved the Congress and the judiciary and the military assisted. It makes no sense that a military would help enact authoritarianism with a person they allegedly wanted to assassinate. During the self-coup a new Peruvian  Constitution was created. The reason for Peru's struggles were related to economic instability and the fight against the Shining Path. The accusation of an assassination plot was made in November around the time elections were restored. The image of a few rogue generals trying to depose the government scare people to vote. President Alberto Fujimori won reelection in 1995, but that would not have been possible with out the change to the Peruvian Constitution in 1993. The change allowed him to run for another term. President Alberto Fujimori never provided evidence of the assassination plot. Imposing authoritarianism was justified by the administration as protecting Peru's national security. What was happening was the government abusing power.   

Crisis In Bolivia

 

Bolivia almost had another coup. Compounded by economic challenges it has not maintained stability. This has been the case since 2019. The overthrow of Evo Morales left Bolivia subject to a far-right turn in politics. Although the attempted coup was thwarted, questions remain. These events are going to have an impact on the 2025 presidential election. The coup attempted has been traced to general Juan Jose Zuniga. Others have accused President Luis Arce of trying to do a self coup. This is not new to South America. President Alberto Fujimori of Peru did this in 1992.  So far, there is no evidence to prove this claim. The biggest concern is the growing split in the Movement for Socialism. Evo Morales wants to run for office once more, but the Constitutional Court is barring him. The motivation is a political one. The changes made under former president Jeanine Anez remain in place. The election of Luis Arce was a sign of a return to normalcy. Inflation and other economic concerns are the center of attention. The average Bolivian is being harmed by slow economic growth. Arce only presented the illusion of a return to a stable nation. Bolivia is experiencing a shortage of US dollars, a decrease in foreign reserves, and a fiscal  deficit. One reason general Zuniga attempted a coup was that he accused the government of impoverishing Bolivia. President Luis Arce was an economist and was appointed economic minister in 2006 by Evo Morales. The assumption was that he would be able to solve Bolivia economic hardship. Bolivia is rich in natural resources and should be able to generate more business. Slow economic growth contributes to coups and political factionalism in MAS. If these concerns are not address Bolivia could lapse into greater instability.  

Iran Strikes Israel

 

When Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria, this induced a military strike. Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel. The fear is that a wider regional war will take place. Israel's war on Gaza has generated much anger in the Middle East. To a degree Israel was in a state of war with Iran since the early 2000s. Israel has assassinated a number of Iranians. The targets tend to be scientists and generals. The most recent assassination was of General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. A possible Israel-Iran War would certainly draw in major world powers. If left unchecked the US-EU bloc would come to Israel's aid to oppose Iran. That would trigger a response from Russia and China. The trepidation present in foreign policy circles is a third World War. Conditions at the moment are not so dire that mass global conflict could occur. If support for Israel's expansion continues it will make a global war possible. The strike by Iran did not devastate Israel. What it did was to show that Israel is not invincible. Israel is at war with Syria, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels, Hamas, and Iran. Israel's disregard for civilian life can no longer be hidden. The attack of the Iranian consulate in Damascus left 13 people dead. Iran's military strike was designed to be an act of retaliation. Israel has been doing drone strikes and raid on Iran since 2018. Iran has not attacked Israel on its own soil. Asymmetric warfare through Lebanon and Syria was a method of fight a powerful IDF.As long as the conflict continues in Gaza, Israel will be come isolated. Zionism and Islamism are dividing West Asia. Both Iran and Israel are theocratic states. Israel just has the structures of liberal democracy, but in practice has morphed into an ethnostate. Israel wants to eliminate Iran to remove a regional competitor. This explains why Israel does not want to see Iran with nuclear weapons. Israel would not enjoy being the most powerful country in West Asia. Overtime, Iran will do more strikes in response to Israeli aggression.     

Niger Seeks To Remove Foreign Military Bases

 

Niger is taking a different path in regards to its foreign and domestic policy. The military government wants to remove foreign military bases from the country.  The government has ordered the US and France to move its soldiers out of the country. France was the main country that has maintained influence in Niger since its independence in 1960. France maintained an estimated 1,500 troops in Niger. The United States of America has a total 1,100. This means that 2,600 foreign soldiers are active in Niger. Italy and the European Union have a smaller force in the Sahel nation. the justification for this is to provide support to Niger fighting terrorist organizations active in the region. The European presence is not reducing terrorism, rather it escalates violence. The ineffective methods of drones and targeted bombings extends warfare. Africa does not need assistance fighting wars. African nations have experience fighting insurgencies, civil wars, and insurrections. Algeria, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chad,  Nigeria, Burundi, and Rwanda have fought conflicts like this. Uganda overtime was able to limit the Lord's Resistance Army's ability to conduct military operations. It remains unknown what military leader Abdourahamane Tchiani will do to remove terrorist organizations or deal with the fallout from destabilization in North Africa. Either the military  junta will seek an anti-neocolonial position or be another authoritarian regime. The military dictatorships of the past were products of Cold War foreign policy. Support for them was as a means of France and the UK to maintain control of their former colonies. Niger is undergoing a major foreign policy shift away from France and the US.   

Thaksin Shinawatra Returns To Thailand

 

The former prime minister has returned to Thailand. Thaksin Shinawatra has been in exile since the 2006 coup. Shortly after his arrival he was sent to prison. Reports now state that Thaksin suffered a medical emergency that required hospitalization. He faces charges of corruption, which Thaksin insists are politically motivated. The question remains how legitimate are the charges if they were made by a military government. Rumors have circulated that the former prime minister reach an agreement with the military establishment. The option available to him would be to seek a royal pardon. Thaksin does still have some political influence and imprisonment could have implications in future elections. The military  backed parties can always do a coup by stealth. Thaksin's businesses have been subject to scrutiny. The Advance Info Service contracts connection to the military indicated a monopoly run solely by the Shinawatra family. Telecommunications were not his only business ventures. Not all of his companies were successful, but the one that survived made him wealthy. The major crime he is accused of his hiding his assets. This indictment was made by the National Counter Corruption Commission. Thaksin Shinawatra  demonstrates that wealth has a negative effect on democratic institutions. His return does indicate a shift in Thailand's political atmosphere. However, many still remain in exile due to the military.   

The US Military Has A Recruitment Concern

 

The US Military has stated there is a recruitment crisis. The number of recruits according to the Department of Defense are decreasing. Since 2022, reaching the quota numbers has been getting more challenging. Some have blamed the Genesis medical records system. The system might make errors about a recruit's health and disqualify them from service. The aftermath of the pandemic and vaccine mandates could also be contributors. The shift indicates that most of the public no longer sees the US Military as a force for positive change. The wars of aggression in Iraq and Afghanistan have damaged the image of the institution. The reason military recruiters target secondary school students is due to the fact it could finance university ambitions. The drop in  college attendance has increased from the rise in tuition. Serving in the military no longer seems like an option for paying for higher education. The public also has become frustrated with the permanent state of warfare. Since 1945, the US continues to have combat operations around the globe. The prospect of war with China and Russia becomes more of a concern. Most are not willing to join in conflicts that are provoked by US foreign policy. The recruitment crisis as it has been referred to is not that serious. It shows that the militarist state is weakening. If there are few soldiers to fight in wars, then the military industrial complex cannot survive. Attempts could be made to reinstitute the draft. Public reaction would certainly cause massive protests. The real crisis is that America continues to wage war in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The Russia-Ukraine War provides another justification for militarization of another continent. Maybe the reduction of combat soldiers will force the military interventions to stop. To the people seeking employment, working in the US Military provides very little benefit. Veterans struggle homelessness, low quality healthcare, and getting work.    

Remembering Albert Kunyuku The DRC's Last World War II Veteran

 

Africans fought in World War II. However, their stories are not always told. Many gave their lives in the fight against fascism, even though they did not have independence. Albert Kunyuku passed away in January of 2022. He was the last surviving  Congolese veteran of World War II. The Democratic Republic of the Congo mourned  his passing. Kunyuku saw combat in Burma. He joined the Force Publique in 1940. Colonial troops were essential to the liberation of Axis held territory in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Belgium came under Nazi rule, but Congolese were not willing to accept new colonizers. While most of the war in Africa was fought in the North, East Africa had to be freed from Italian control. African soldiers took part in aiding Ethiopia's fight to free its self from Fascist Italy. Albert Kunyuku's death is a reminder of how important it is to record history. More scholarship must be done of the African soldier experience and contributions during World War II. 

Burkina Faso Demands The Withdraw of French Forces

Burkina Faso is about to make a major foreign policy change. The military government announced it wants French forces to leave the country in a month. The reason France claims it remains in the country is to combat terrorism. Even before the activity of terrorist organizations, France was interfering with Burkina Faso's internal affairs. The junta is not the only group demanding French withdraw. Demonstrations have been held by the public regrading French military intervention. France's objective is not to fight ISIS or Al-Qaeda inspired armed groups. The intention is to assert dominance in the Sahel region. The French intervention started with Mali in 2013 and then spread to surrounding countries. Chad and Niger have a similar problem of French military presence.  French abuses are going to be used as a means to strengthen the military leader Ibrahim Traore. The majority of the population does not want France to remain and supporting their removal would make the government more popular. Since 2014 France has waged Operation Barkhane to fight terrorist organizations. Prior to this Operation Serval was focused on Mali in particular. Mali's destabilization was the direct result of the regime change in Libya in 2011. France saw this as an opportunity to build a neo-colonial empire. A decade of conflict has made West Africa less secure. The violation of national sovereignty, rise of military regimes, French forces, and terrorist organizations have become serious threats to Burkina Faso. 

The Progress With Women In Combat Integration

Since 2013, combat jobs have been open to women. The sex integration in the US military has had some successes. Challenges remain with developing  gender neutral fitness standards. Women have higher failure rates compare to their male counterparts. The US Army was previously developing an update to the 1983 fitness standards. The updated version is known as the Army Combat Fitness Test. Gender normed scoring was retained. The concern is that standards are being lowered to increase the number of women. What appears to be happening is that this is more about assessing a soldier's physical condition as a general assessment. Specific occupational  training would require another set of standards. The Navy, Army, Infantry, Air Force, and Marine Corps have different fitness standards. Women have entered combat jobs, but their numbers remain low. Another view is that women entry into combat jobs will weaken the US military. This is not true, because it only expands America's  armed force. What will weaken the US is economic instability and wars for regime change. Women's entry into combat jobs is one of the few positive developments for the US military. The devastating  wars in Iraq and Afghanistan  has lowered morale. Women should not just seek to be soldiers, rather rise in rank to influence military policy.  

A Military Coup Has Occurred in Myanmar

 

Myanmar is in a state of emergency, with the military once more seizing  power. The military insisted this was a response to accusations of fraud in the elections. Aung San Suu Kyi has once more been detained along with other senior officials. It appears that the military wants to overturn the results of the general election and impose resurrect the military dictatorship. This is not the first time this has happened. The National League of Democracy did win the general election back in 1990. The military then launched a coup. The NLD became the ruling party of the country starting in 2015. They had a majority of seats in parliament. The military claims it will hold on to power for one year. Similar to Thailand, the military has large amounts of influence over government. The experiment in developing a democratic system  that began in 2011 appears to be coming to an end. Myanmar already has ethnic conflict and might be on the brink of civil war. The return to military rule will certainly cause some from of reaction from the public. This could either take the form of mass demonstrations or armed resistance. There are multiple armed groups in the country either fighting the military or seeking to create independent states. Myanmar may require a federal system to address issues related to regional and racial tensions. The Rohingya crisis demonstrates that just having elections or democratic government does not eliminate oppression. The NLD  allowed the military to wage war on an ethnic group, because it could have cost them politically with  the Buddhists in the Rakhine state. The only way the military regime will be defeated is through unified action of all ethnic groups and regions. However, political and ethnic divisions may be too vast to form coordinated mass resistance .