The Political Activities of Former DRC President Joseph Kabila

 

Former DRC president Joseph Kabila is back in the country after two years. Returning to the city of Goma, accusations were made he had links to the M23 rebels. Leading the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2001 to 2019, his influence is still felt. The Second Congolese Civil War caused massive devastation to the region and DRC. The end of Kabila's immunity indicates a political motivation. Joseph Kabila might be calculating a return to the presidency. President Felix Tshisekedi has expressed the desire for the Constitutional Commission to change the term limits. If presidential term limits were to be extended that means Kabila could run again. This explains why the People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy is facing suppression. New charges were placed on Joseph Kabila accusing him of war crimes and treason. At this time, there is not enough evidence for trial. The restrictions on the PPRD Party are in the public's view an example of anti-democratic action. Joseph Kabila has claimed he wants to have a settlement with the M23 rebels. It was announced that Rwanda and the DRC would procure a peace agreement. Fears are mounting that it will not hold. If any peace settlement is to be successful it will require the active participation Uganda. Both Uganda and Rwanda have been involved in the DRC's internal affairs going back to 1998. Joseph Kabila has the experience dealing with President Paul Kagame and President Yoweri Museveni. The assassination of his father and the former president Laurent-Desire Kabila, made Joseph understand the dangers the DRC was in from its neighbors. The ban on the PPRD Party and  the end of Joseph Kabila's immunity will only increase his popularity. Political persecution turns public figures into icons of resistance. While Kabila still has enemies made in the 2000s, he could  be developing a wider political movement. 

Rwanda Severs Ties With Belgium

 

Rwanda has ended diplomatic relations with Belgium. The Rwandan government has instructed Belgian diplomatic staff to leave the country. The reason for the end of diplomatic relations stems from the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The criticisms related to Rwanda's connection to the M23 rebels has generated controversy. Rwanda claims it has no involvement, but the M23 rebels appear to target Hutus. Rwanda is not breaking diplomatic relations out of anti-colonial politics or for the assertion of national sovereignty. Belgium is attempting to take sides in a regional African conflict. The memories of the Rwandan Civil War and genocide remain fresh. The Second Congolese Civil War created many refugees and internally displaced persons. While ending relations with former colonial powers should be praised, this was not for the sake of Pan-African unity. President Paul Kagame wants to increase his political power. Belgium is an obstacle and a possible country that could induce possible regime change. Belgium has been vociferous in trying to get EU members to sanction Rwanda. Imposing sanctions without some type of dialogue, reveals another agenda. Rwanda's military commanders have EU sanctions placed on them. The UK and Germany are suspending aid.  Simultaneously, attempts at peace talks were being made. The United Nations has not made an attempt to help with peace negotiations. As President Paul Kagame faces pressure from the EU, he will look for other allies elsewhere. The DRC has tantalum, which is essential to the electronics and computer industry. Belgium only concern about the M23 rebels is their control of natural resources in the Eastern Congo. President Paul Kagame's involvement in the DRC is not just economic. The RPF is seeking vengeance for the past abuses of the Hutus. Rwanda's break with Belgium was inevitable consequence of war.        

The M23 Rebels Make Advances

 

The M23 rebels are making advances in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. For a time the March 23 rebellion movement was not a serious threat. From 2023 onwards, clashes emerged. Observers cite that Rwanda and Uganda are fueling the current conflict. The M23 rebels are now making it an objective to take Kinshasa. The majority of the fighting has been in the eastern section of the DRC. An estimated 1 million people have been displaced. Another large scale civil war would devastate a region recovering from the Second Congolese Civil War. The reason President Paul Kagame supports the M23 rebels is because they are Tutsi armed group. Rwanda might be attempting to partition the DRC. The DRC is getting assistance from Burundi. The Tutsi population has felt isolated from the government. M23 represents an ethnic group trying to break away from the DRC. United Nations peacekeepers on present in the DRC and are collaborating with the Congolese Army. The Southern African Development Community has an active military mission in the DRC. The reason M23 became more formidable was from a new alliance. The Congo River Alliance was formed to overthrow the government. Corneille Nangaa was a politician turned rebel leader. Having both Rwandan and Ugandan aid, made the M23 rebels more powerful than they were in 2012. More armed groups are active in the Congo River Alliance. If the M23 rebels go beyond the east, the DRC will experience a large civil war.  

Paul Kagame Retains The Rwandan Presidency

 

President Paul Kagame has won 99.18 % of the vote. This was based on provisional results. Many opposition political figures were not allowed to participate. Based on the election results from 2017 he won by a larger margin. Paul Kagame is not getting more popular. This is more of an indication of suppression of other political parties. Now 66 years old it appears President Kagame is becoming a president for life. At first presidential terms were seven years. Through constitutional amendment it was reduced to five in 2015. The question remains what happens after 2034. President Paul Kagame has not evaded controversy. The alleged  involvement with the M23 rebels   in the DRC, military operations in Mozambique,  and Rwandan migrants to the UK are pressing issues. The RPF party still maintains a majority. While the country does have a high GDP, most of the population has not seen an increase related to income. President Paul Kagame has been president since the year 2000. The youth have only known one president and for some it was the first time voting. The desire for change might be growing. The National Electoral Commission clearly favors President Paul Kagame and the RPF. This makes it difficult for opposition parties to operate. They barred eight candidates from running in the 2024 election. While the government could be transforming into a more authoritarian system, some progress related to infrastructure has been made. Hospitals and roads have increased in number. Paul Kagame could  attempt to be a president for life. Assuming the 2015 referendum is discarded at some stage it becomes a possibility.     

Mali and Rwanda Are Entering A Bilateral Diplomatic Relationship

 

Rwanda and Mali have signed a number of agreements.. President Paul Kagame is extending his influence to other parts of Africa. The Sahel and West Africa are becoming a priority. The agreements were related to health, investment, and agriculture. Prior to this, there were already agreements related to security. Mali has a reason to welcome the series of 19 agreements. When the military regime under Assimi Goita  took power there was threat of an ECOWAS invasion. General Assimi is circumventing that possibility by reaching out to other African countries. This puts the African Union in a difficult position. They would have trouble isolating a military regime that has the support of a longtime leader. All the Sahel  military regimes that came to power in the early 2020s have formed an alliance. The alliance was designed to stop an invasion similar to Gambia in 2017. President Paul Kagame realizes that many longtime leaders are being deposed. Gabon's coup was taken into consideration. If President Paul Kagame gets close to the new regimes it might insulate him from a similar fate. Simultaneously, it can be a way for Rwanda to get vengeance on France. The frustration comes from the fact that France supported the Juvenal Habyarimana regime, which persecuted the Tutsi population. This was the government that the Rwandan Patriotic Front was fighting. President Paul Kagame has accused France of having a role in the 1994 genocide. Now that France is being forced out the Sahel, Rwanda wants to replace it in Mali. The bilateral diplomatic relationship will continue to grow based on regional conditions. Assimi Goita and Paul Kagame are ensuring political survival in a rapidly changing Africa.   

The M23 Rebels Connection To Rwanda

 

The M23 rebels are making an attempt to retake areas lost in the war. Clashes in North Kivu have caused fears of another massive civil war. Observers have noted that external forces are active in the DRC. According to the United Nations, Rwanda has been listed as a major contributor to the M23 insurrection. Much of the conflicts stems from the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide in 1994 and the Second Congolese Civil War. The war lasted from 1998 to 2003 displacing many people. Ethnic hatreds did not dissipate, with others accusing President Paul Kagame attempting to make a larger Tutsi state. Rwanda and Burundi were in a state of civil war prior to the 1994 genocide. The Rwandan Patriotic Front continues to dominate the politics of the country, but seeks more influence in the region. The alliance with the M23 rebels might be a means of fighting the Democratic Forces for Liberation of Rwanda. The Hutu rebel group wants to challenge the Rwandan Patriotic Front. During the final years of the Joseph Mobutu regime, Hutu refugees fled to the DRC. Militias have been forming independently of governments. A Tutsi and Hutu reconciliation was never achieved. M23 emerged in 2012 claiming it wanted to protect Tutsis from other Hutu militias. The UN Peacekeeping mission cannot be declared a success. Deaths and internally displaced persons have increased. The Congolese public sees them as an occupying force. Rwanda's growing military intervention into the DRC will harm relations with Uganda. President Yoweri Museveni realizes that the DRC is a major trading partner. The security risk is that the fighting could spill over into Uganda. Congolese asylum seekers are already entering the country. Uganda has taken refugees from other countries such as South Sudan, Burundi, and Eritrea. Rwandan refugees have come to Uganda. The DRC has descended into another humanitarian crisis. President Felix Tshisekedi's options are limited. The Democratic Republic of the Congo could be on the brink of war with Rwanda.  

Paul Kagame Seeking A Fourth Term

 

President Paul Kagame is going to run for a fourth term. Doing this is no shock considering the 2015 constitutional amendment . For two decades Rwandan politics has been dominated by one president.  The difference now is the African continent has been turning against longtime leaders and those deemed as puppets of  the West. Gabon, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Sudan have seen leaders deposed. Rwanda has had the same president since the year 2000. The presidential terms are seven years. This means Paul Kagame could remain in office up until 2034. Some suspect that another constitutional amendment could be made in the coming years. The end of presidential term limits would mean Paul Kagame could be president for life. The Green Party seeks to defeat him at the polls, but the Rwandan Patriotic Party has a powerful grip on the political system. Frank Habineza is seeking to become Rwanda's next president. The invention in Mozambique, the Rwandan asylum plan, and the status of relations with Uganda are going to be pivotal topics in the election. There is considerable controversy about the Rwandan government's support for the M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of The Congo. The concern is that Ugandan and Rwandan involvement in the DRC could create a wider regional conflict. The DRC and Ugandan forces have fought the Allied Democratic Forces. Armed groups and longtime leaders are making the region more unstable. There is the fear of what  would happen with the end of  the Paul Kagame era. This explains why voters might support him, even with  growing diplomatic concerns and military engagements.  

The M23 Rebel Crisis

 

The ceasefire between the M23 rebels and the government of the Democratic Republic of The Congo is breaking down. The rebellion started in 2012 and the DRC declared the conflict over. However, clashes still continue. The reason the M23 rebels exist is due to the fall out of the Second Congolese Civil War. The violence has caused Angola to send forces to the DRC. The area of conflict is focused in North-Kivu province. Kenya is also becoming involved in the DRC. Seeing as the zone of war borders Rwanda and Uganda these countries might also be active. Rwanda has been accused of aiding the M23 rebels. President Paul Kagame has denied the allegations of instigating rebellion. Questions also remain about Uganda's role in the internal affairs of the DRC. The United Nations deployment of peacekeepers has not been effective. A total of eight countries were involved in the civil war that lasted from 1998 to 2003. The reason Rwanda takes interest in the DRC is due to Hutu armed groups. Some could have been involved in the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The roots of the rebellion are in ethnic conflict and isolation of minorities. The Tutsi minority and deserters from the DRC's army would form what are now the M23 rebels. There is no indication that this was a product of foreign conspiracy. The origin was indigenous. The Democratic Republic of the Congo cannot function with civil war, foreign intervention, and failed UN missions. The African Union should take a more active role in stabilizing the DRC. Much of this has to do with addressing the discord of the Tutsis and the general frustration of the citizens. President Felix Tshisekedi wants to see economic development projects continue, but this cannot be done with war in the east. The end of the government coalition with Joseph Kabila and his political allies. The M23 rebels are going to be a major concern in the general elections. The fear is that another full scale civil war could break out. So far, the M23 rebels have been contained. If  their forces become stronger and capture more territory, then the DRC will be in another civil war. 

Rwanda Is Conducting Military Operations In Mozambique

 

Rwanda has been fighting in Mozambique. Since August it appears the 1,000 troop force has been successful in taking back control of Cabo Delgado. The armed insurgency is thought to be connected to either ISIS or al-Shabab. There still remains uncertainty if this is entirely local or work from an external terrorist organization. Discord in the area was growing in 2017, which escalated into violence. Rwanda is not the only country active in Mozambique. Mostly African countries of the Southern African Development Community are aiding Mozambique's military. The question is whether or not President Filipe Nyusi will become more dependent on President Paul Kagame. Long term occupations do not work and there is potential for a violation of national sovereignty. Rwanda has seen the horrors of conflict. Having experienced a civil war and genocide military entanglements could endanger the decades of peace. The gas rich region is also of interest to foreign investors, which maybe way it the conflict in Mozambique has gotten more attention. TotalEnergies was forced to halt work on the liquified natural gas project due to the attack in Palma. The conflict will enable Rwanda to have more of an influence in Mozambique. The actions of  regional organizations are being put to the test. The SADC risks making the situation are larger humanitarian crisis if more military operations are conducted. Rwanda could find itself  in a larger war of attrition.