Showing posts with label ethnic conflict. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ethnic conflict. Show all posts

Friday, January 2, 2026

Israel Recognizes Somaliland

 


Somalia faces being a failed state and foreign nations are now recognizing break away regions. Israel decided to recognize Somaliland as an independent state. Turkey condemned the action and expressed support for the Somalian government. Israel is not just seeking to expand in West Asia, but also have a presence in Africa. Having an African ally close to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden would be useful. Mainly, the military objective would be to target Houthi rebels using Somaliland as a launching site. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud articulated that Israel's motives are connected to the war in Gaza. President Mohamud implied that Israel intends to use the territory for refugees. Somaliland would effectively become a puppet state of Israel. The majority of the world does not recognize Somaliland as an independent state. Somaliland under these conditions would have to accept the Abraham Accords. Sudan and Morocco are the only African states that signed the agreements. The African Union has failed to take a forceful position against Israeli interference on the African continent. Israel's attempt to establish bases in the Horn of Africa will destabilize the region. Support for terrorist organizations could increase. Other armed groups could emerge to stop the infiltration of the Zionist state. Somalia is under attack from external enemies and domestic challenges. North African states are going to have more of a negative reaction to Israeli diplomatic shifts. Somalia should consider recognizing a Palestinian state to counter attempts of balkanization.         

Monday, November 10, 2025

Nubian Artifacts Are Under Threat In Sudan

 


The civil war in Sudan has brought Nubian artifacts under threat. Thefts, looting, and damage to historical objects is becoming widespread. The criminal activity mostly comes from the Rapid Support Forces. The reasons have ethnic overtones. The RSF was formed from the Janjaweed militia, which were mostly Arabs. The Janjaweed were fighting to end rebellion in Darfur. The RSF has been reported to have assistance from the United Arab Emirates. Throughout history there have been Arab attempts to wide out African history. West Asian invasion has ancient roots in Nile Valley civilization. The RSF has a goal of establishing an Arab state and part of this involves the destruction of  Sudan's ancient  treasures. Sudanese Arabs, Nubians, Zaghawa, Beja, and Nubians form the population of the country. Sudan as a rich and unique history, which needs to be preserved. The attacks on the Sudan National Museum are a major concern. The Sudan National Museum was established in 1959 for preserving antiquities. At the time, flooding from Egypt's Aswan Dam put artifacts and monuments  at risk. The Sudan National Museum became a sanctuary for cherished relics. The Sudan National Museum has an estimated 100,000 artifacts. Now, the collection is at risk of becoming prizes of war or being sold by the RSF. The Sudanese Armed Forces are not focused on securing artifacts. Their primary objective is to take back the areas  that the RSF is in control of. Sudan cannot allow the history of Kerma, Kush, and Meroe to be erased. Sudan should consider shipping artifacts to other African nations. Securing museums and the artifacts needs to be part of  the strategy the Sudanese Armed Forces. Archeologists, historians, and academics need to document all the information they can to prevent it from becoming lost.  



Friday, April 4, 2025

African Union Attempts To Solve The South Sudan Crisis

 


South Sudan could be falling into civil war. The African Union has sent mediators to avert the crisis. This is not the first time the African Union was involved in Sudan. There was an AU mission in Darfur. The current crisis was sparked by the Neur White Army. The escalation went further with the arrest Riek Machar. The basis of the arrest was that Machar was connected to the Neur White Army. The new tension has an ethnic element with Neur and Dinka. Most of the current fighting is occurring in the Upper Nile state. The African union mediators want to see the 2018 peace deal remain in place. The reason for the concern is that a South Sudanese civil war would merge with other conflicts. Chad and Ethiopia would be effected by refugees fleeing fighting. Uganda also is a major factor in regional power. President Yoweri Museveni came to Juba to express support for President Salva Kiir Mayadit. Uganda is exploiting the internal struggles to gain more influence in East Africa. The third Sudanese Civil War has reverberated with the flow of arms into South Sudan. President Salva Kiir Mayadit has been the only head of state since 2011. Power sharing was not going to work in a political system that is authoritarian. The African Union requested that Riek Machar's release, yet the government refuses to meet such as demand. More efforts for diplomatic solutions are being made. 

Thursday, March 6, 2025

The Kurdistan Worker's Party Might Seek A Peace Agreement

 


The Kurdistan Worker's Party announced a ceasefire. The PKK for a number of years has been fighting Turkey for the cause of Kurdish national self-determination. Indications hint to the PKK seeking a peace agreement. Abdullah Ocalan leader of the PKK has called for the armed struggle to end. The circumstances are a direct result of the fall of the Assad presidency in Syria. Turkey made itself an enemy of Syria and the fight with the PKK was putting pressure on the government. The void left by the removal of the Baathist government puts the Kurds in a precarious situation. Israeli expansion and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's control of Syria means Kurds face two enemies. Ocalan's sudden shift away from armed resistance is more about a battlefield reality. Under such conditions a Kurdish state cannot be created. The PKK has been fighting since 1984 and has changed its policies regarding the question of independence. The shift in Turkey has been about more autonomy. Kurds in Syria, Iraq, and Iran do not all share this position. An estimated 40,000 people have died from the conflict with the PKK. As long as Abdullah Ocalan remains in prison peace agreements  or a sustainable ceasefire will not last. Calls for a peaceful resolution might not be possible. The desire to see a Kurdistan emerge are growing. What complicates regional matters is the Democratic Forces of Syria. The Kurdish led group has fought both the Bashar  al-Assad presidency in Syria and the Recep Erdogan government. Even if the PKK were to make peace or dissolve, this would not end regional challenges. Neo- Otomanism is partitioning parts of West Asia. Kurds and Arabs are seen as obstacles to the new Turkish neo-colonial policy. Members of the PKK understand this agenda. Abdullah Ocalan's calls for a peace settlement could be rejected by a large portion of  the PKK.  



Saturday, February 1, 2025

The M23 Rebels Make Advances

 


The M23 rebels are making advances in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. For a time the March 23 rebellion movement was not a serious threat. From 2023 onwards, clashes emerged. Observers cite that Rwanda and Uganda are fueling the current conflict. The M23 rebels are now making it an objective to take Kinshasa. The majority of the fighting has been in the eastern section of the DRC. An estimated 1 million people have been displaced. Another large scale civil war would devastate a region recovering from the Second Congolese Civil War. The reason President Paul Kagame supports the M23 rebels is because they are Tutsi armed group. Rwanda might be attempting to partition the DRC. The DRC is getting assistance from Burundi. The Tutsi population has felt isolated from the government. M23 represents an ethnic group trying to break away from the DRC. United Nations peacekeepers on present in the DRC and are collaborating with the Congolese Army. The Southern African Development Community has an active military mission in the DRC. The reason M23 became more formidable was from a new alliance. The Congo River Alliance was formed to overthrow the government. Corneille Nangaa was a politician turned rebel leader. Having both Rwandan and Ugandan aid, made the M23 rebels more powerful than they were in 2012. More armed groups are active in the Congo River Alliance. If the M23 rebels go beyond the east, the DRC will experience a large civil war.  

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

The Paris Peace Conference (1919)

 


After World War I, the Allies carved up the colonies of the Central Powers. The German Empire, The Ottoman Empire, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire no longer existed. New states emerged in Europe. The Russian Empire transformed into the Soviet Union after the Russian Revolution. Asian and African colonies of Germany and Turkey were taken over by France and the British Empire. The mistake of the Paris Peace Conference was that it kept European colonial  imperialism intact. The British Empire and France saw  the conference as a way to expand their territory. France insisted on harsh punishment for Germany. The War Guilt Clause placed most of the blame on Germany. The Austro-Hungarian Empire was more responsible for the outbreak due to its actions in Serbia. The footage shows the signing of the Treaty of Versailles on June 28, 1919. It went into effect in 1920. Italy even though it fought with the Allies got little of what it was promised. African and Asian independence movements were ignored and not invited to the Paris Peace Conference. Racism and European domination of the globe was to be preserved. The penalties of the Treaty of  Versailles and economic crisis created an atmosphere for fascism to rise. The war to end all wars would lead to another violent conflict in 1939.    



Thursday, July 18, 2024

Paul Kagame Retains The Rwandan Presidency

 


President Paul Kagame has won 99.18 % of the vote. This was based on provisional results. Many opposition political figures were not allowed to participate. Based on the election results from 2017 he won by a larger margin. Paul Kagame is not getting more popular. This is more of an indication of suppression of other political parties. Now 66 years old it appears President Kagame is becoming a president for life. At first presidential terms were seven years. Through constitutional amendment it was reduced to five in 2015. The question remains what happens after 2034. President Paul Kagame has not evaded controversy. The alleged  involvement with the M23 rebels   in the DRC, military operations in Mozambique,  and Rwandan migrants to the UK are pressing issues. The RPF party still maintains a majority. While the country does have a high GDP, most of the population has not seen an increase related to income. President Paul Kagame has been president since the year 2000. The youth have only known one president and for some it was the first time voting. The desire for change might be growing. The National Electoral Commission clearly favors President Paul Kagame and the RPF. This makes it difficult for opposition parties to operate. They barred eight candidates from running in the 2024 election. While the government could be transforming into a more authoritarian system, some progress related to infrastructure has been made. Hospitals and roads have increased in number. Paul Kagame could  attempt to be a president for life. Assuming the 2015 referendum is discarded at some stage it becomes a possibility.     

Friday, November 10, 2023

Anti-Serb Austro-Hungarian Empire Propaganda (1914)

 


The Balkans during the 1910s was a region of ethnic tension and racial hatred. The Austro-Hungarian Empire wanted to stop its diverse ethnic groups from breaking away into their own nations states. The tension been Slavs and Germanic peoples was evident with the imperial order. The  Austro-Hungarian Empire annex Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908. The Serb population there went from being ruled by the Ottoman Empire to Austrian rule. Serbia was enraged by this action and it motivated Serbian nationalist to become more extreme. The Black Hand was responsible for the assassination of Archduke  Franz Ferdinand. The propaganda at the time depicted Serbs as ape like creatures. The image shows a fist crushing a Serb saying "Serbia must die." The drawing implies all Serbs are terrorists and that the country and people should be attacked. This was published after the murder of Franz Ferdinand. His death was used as a justification for war. Anti-Serb riots broke out in Sarajevo. The anti-Serb violence then spread throughout the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The acts of violence were not random. They were encouraged by the government. The governor of  Bosnia-Herzegovina Oskar Potiorek organized violence against Serbs. The ethnic tension, rival alliance systems, and European colonial imperialism would spark World War I. 

Saturday, September 30, 2023

Armenians Flee Nagorno-Karabakh

 



Armenians are now fleeing the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan has escalated and is evolving into ethnic conflict. Nagorno-Karabakh's population is majority Armenian and Azerbaijan sees it as part of it territory. A  de facto government was in place, but few nations recognized Nagorno-Karabakh's independence. Azerbaijan is set to take over the break away region and there is speculation more areas could be seized. Reports of ethnic violence have been circulating. Armenians are left with two choices. Either stay in Nagorno-Karabakh and accept being citizens of Azerbaijan. The other option is to flee to Armenia. The fear of reprisals has made Armenians want to leave. Crackdowns are going to follow in an effort to bring the region back into Azerbaijan. Russia at one time sent a peacekeeping force to the region. Some do remain, but the situation in Europe means Russia will not focus on the South Caucasus.  The military action will only increase the power of President Ilham Aliyev. The conquest also has implications for Armenia's own security. Turkey and Azerbaijan are allies. Both countries have an ethnic hatred of Armenians. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did offer to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan. The condition was that the Armenian population would have their right protected and would not face racial discrimination. The peace offer was rejected. The first war lasted from 1988 to 1994. The following conflicts emerged from the power void left after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The war in 2020 resulted in a ceasefire. The conditions in 2023 were different considering Prime Minister Pashinyan is facing massive opposition. The refugees are a symbol of Armenia's defeat by an enemy. Armenian refugees now face the challenge of getting resettled in other aeras. 

Sunday, July 23, 2023

The Breakdown Of Peace Talks In Yugoslavia (1991)

 


Yugoslavia was facing civil war and ethnic conflict. Around 1991 Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia were on the verge of a massive war. The truce talks broke down between Serbia and Slovenia. The biggest concern was about border crossings into western Europe. Customs fees were the dispute and there was a proposal that Slovenia could run the border on the behalf of the Yugoslav government. Economics was playing a role in the tension and hatreds. Slobodan Milosevic no longer was opposing the break-up of the country, but wanted all Serbs united in a single state. The problem was that Serbs were in enclaves located in Croatia and Slovenia. The European Community and the U.S.S.R came to act as mediators in the dispute. It was clear that the EC was not really trying to stabilize the situation. If that were the case Croatia and Slovenia would not have been given recognition as independent states. A unified Germany wanted influence in the Balkans and recognition of Croatia was the first step. Recognition of Slovenia was to follow. Germany's push to recognize both break away republics in 1992 only exacerbated the conflict. The result was a war on European soil not seen since World War II and ethnic cleansing.  

Monday, January 9, 2023

Israelis Protest The Netanyahu Government


The return of Benjamin Netanyahu resulted in protests. Israel has elected its most ring-wing government in recent history. The new coalition has a number of ultra-Orthodox political parties participating. The new government has expressed a desire to expand settlements in the West Bank. A growing concern about authoritarianism undermining democratic institutions has become widespread. This will be the third time Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been elected. His service  in office was between 1996 to 1999 and then 2009 to 2021. The longtime leader  has an ability to cling to power. If the office of prime minister is given more powers, then it will resemble other undemocratic regimes in the Middle East. The proposed derogation clause which would allow parliament to override decisions by the Supreme Court. Critics claim that Israel is losing its democracy. The state was never democratic. The country was the creation of Zionist settler colonialism and evolved into a theocratic Jewish  ethnostate. Observers have noted Israel now shares similarities to the Apartheid regime that ruled South Africa from 1948 to 1994. The Palestinians and Arabs Israelis are going face more violence and discrimination with the new government. The protests had a number of groups which included leftists, Palestinian and LGBTQ organizations. The cross section also included  concerned citizens about the condition of Israel. More demonstrations are expected as more repressive policies are enacted. 

Wednesday, January 4, 2023

Tensions in Kosovo

 

Kosovo has seen an increase of tensions between the Serbian and Albanian populations. The NATO intervention in 1999 cased instability in the Balkans. Serbia was attempting to stop a separatist movement active in Kosovo. The end of Yugoslavia came about through civil war and ethnic cleansing. NATO has been present in Kosovo since 1999. Kosovo then announced it was an independent nation nine years later. A NATO force remained. Kosovo could  morph into a puppet state of  the NATO alliance. Serbia declared the 2008 declaration of independence as illegal. The majority of European Union members recognize Kosovo. The Serbs living in Kosovo are concerned about poor treatment from an Albanian majority. Kosovo some Serbs believe is still a part of Serbia. Prime Minister Albin Kurti called for a larger NATO led peacekeeping force. The motivation of the EU is to undermine Serbia's Russian alliance. These two nations have close relations and the conflict in Ukraine strengthened them. The attempt for Kosovo  to get complete international recognition is part of the reason for recent tensions. Then the occupation of the Kosovo Force adds to the complications. The NATO led peacekeeping force has done little to stabilize the Balkans. The process of Balkanization has not stopped. President Aleksandar Vucic expressed his support for Serbs in Kosovo. Being the president of Serbia he views them as citizens of the country. The Brussels Agreement is at risk of collapse. Since 2013 both Serbia and Kosovo agreed to normalize relations. Ethnic conflict and NATO could disrupt the peace.  

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Ethiopia Opens Peace Talks With The TPLF

 


The war with the Tigray region might be coming to an end. A peace settlement is being proposed, which hopes to end hostilities in Ethiopia. A concern has grown that the agreement might not hold. The TPLF appears to long for the days in which it had political dominance. The talks were held in both Kenya and South Africa. Much of the efforts also involved the African Union. The two year war could be reaching an end. The damage to the populace cannot be underestimated. The estimation of deaths possibly reached the thousands and many remain food insecure. The reports of a permanent peace settlement is welcomed. A hotline has also been established between Addis Abba and the TPLF. What must not happen is that a peace settlement devolves into a mere truce or ceasefire. The TPLF agreed to disarm its fighters. The time frame given was within 30 days. Depending on the exact size of the TPLF this might not be a realistic target. Questions remain about Eritrea's  role in the TPLF war. Eritrea was allied to Ethiopia a rare act of collaboration between the two countries. The TPLF still has grievances against Eritrea. East Africa is dealing with destabilization from conflict, food insecurity, terrorism, and ethnic hatreds. Ethiopia is at risk of falling into civil war similar to that of Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Ethiopia has to consider more representation of all ethnic groups in government. A federal system is a solution to issue related to lack of representation, racism, and political crisis. Reforms are needed to prevent the balkanization of the country. The African Union intends to send representatives to ensure that the peace agreement is being upheld. 

Friday, September 2, 2022

The Min Aung Hlaing Regime Extends Aung San Suu Kyi's Jail Sentence

 


The military government of Myanmar has extended Aung San Suu Kyi's jail sentence. The Min Aung Hlaing regime wants to remain in power and to do so it requires to stop all political opposition. The National League of Democracy won the elections, but the military objected to the results. Since 2021 Min Aung Hlaing has manipulated the State Administration Council. Combined with being commander-in-chief of the Defense Forces, this gives him vast amounts of political power. Suu Kyi is the victim of political persecution. The National League of Democracy leaders also face imprisonment. What is going on is nothing more than a show trial. Myanmar has again become a pariah, with certain countries imposing sanctions. This has done little to undermine the military regime. Hlaing might be using Suu Kyi as an example to frighten the people resisting his rule. A resistance has been ongoing with certain ethnic groups taking up arms against the government. Min Aung Hlaing wants to crush revolts and eliminate armed groups. The desire became so extreme that this resulted in the violence against the Rohingya. The crisis can be described as ethnic cleansing and some would argue possible  genocide. Hlaing's involvement has been extensive in the human rights violations of Myanmar's ethnic groups. Suu Kyi's situation has reverted back to what it was in the 1990s. Arrest and detainment due to her political beliefs. The attempt to build a democratic system has failed. Just like in Thailand, Pakistan , Nigeria, and Egypt the military has too much control over the government. Myanmar continues to struggle with the military taking over government. Suu Kyi will either need to find a means of escape or live the rest of her life imprisoned.    

Sunday, November 7, 2021

The TPLF Advances Further In Ethiopia

 


The regional insurgency that started in Ethiopia transformed into full  scale civil war. The Tigray People's Liberation Front appears to be getting closer to Addis Abba. Other rebel groups have joined the TPLF to depose the government. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed now faces a major internal conflict with limited support from the African Union. If the AU condemns the military coups in Sudan, Mali, and Guinea then there should be a vociferous response to violent insurgencies by rebel groups. The new coalition seeking to remove Ahmed is known as the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces.  Eight different groups are part of the force, with the Oromo Liberation Front participating. The civil war did not start because of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The TPLF attacked a federal military base. Under the leadership of Ahmed, the Tigray felt displaced. Since 1991 the Tigray had dominance in government. That changed with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Attempts to centralize power caused a bigger ethnic divide. Accusations that Eritrea aids rebel forces have been made. Kenya has called for an end to hostilities to prevent regional instability. Every conflict produces refugees and it is possible Kenya would be their destination. Ethiopia is facing its largest crisis to date. A TPLF takeover  would not be a democratic government. The coalition could collapse and fight with one another.  

Saturday, November 28, 2020

Ethiopia Wages War on The Tigrayan People's Liberation Front

 

Ethiopia has come to a point of ethnic conflict. The Ethiopian military has sought to wipe out the Tigrayan People's  Liberation Front, which could result in a long term civil war. The tension between Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo has grown in recent years. The Tigray have accused the government of marginalizing them since the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. The conflict will spillover into neighboring countries, which could attract external interference. Prime Minister Abiy Amed's peace with Eritrea could be jeopardize depending on how the military operations on the TPLF go. Somalia remains a failed state, with terrorist organizations active there. Refugees  have fled into Sudan, a country attempting to adjust in a post-Omar al-Bashir political atmosphere. Ethiopia still has a dispute with Egypt over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project. The Nile River is a pivotal water source which Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt have an interest in. The African Union has not made any immediate plans for action or possible pressure to stop the violence. The biggest fear is that Ethiopia could be starting a process of balkanization, with new states emerging constantly at war with one another.  

Friday, October 23, 2020

The Escalation of Armenia and Azerbaijan Conflict

 


The world is in many ways still dealing with the effects of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Armenia and Azerbaijan when the Soviet Union collapsed became independent nations. No longer under Russian control, old ethnic tensions reemerged. The source of contention is the region known as Nagorno-Karabakh. Both nations claim certain areas of what was at one time an autonomous region as their own. A ceasefire was agreed upon in 1994. Conflagrations once more erupted in 2016. However, the difference in the 2020 clashes reveal that this could escalate into a much larger war. The issue is that a Portion of the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh wants to merge with Armenia. Azerbaijan does not want to lose any territory to its enemy. The Soviet Union created this space to act as a buffer zone against possible ethnic conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. The biggest fear was that any ethnic revolt would would cause the U.S.S.R to fall. Armenian forces occupy territories surrounding the disputed region. Azerbaijan starting in July of 2020 made attempts to gain more territory in   Nagorno-Karabakh. The fighting has intensified with other nations calling on a ceasefire to be made. A large long term war will gain the attention of  Iran, Russia, and Turkey. Armenia and Azerbaijan need to have a permanent peace settlement rather than just temporary ceasefires. A conflict between two nations can easily spread to its neighbors.  Being between both the Caspian and Black Sea makes an Armenia- Azerbaijan war   too geopolitically significant to ignore. 

Friday, August 21, 2020

Aung San Suu Kyi Initiates the Panglong Peace Talks

 


Myanmar still remains a country in conflict, even with a civilian government. Ethnic conflict between the Kachin, Shan, and Kayin  continues with clashes being frequent. Suu Kyi is not fully in control, with the military still retaining significant influence in government. The Panglong peace talks were designed to end conflict through a permanent settlement. This is further complicated by the Rohingya crisis, which has created a large number of refugees. Aung Suu Kyi was criticized for her handling of the situation, which caused damaged relations between the US and EU nations. The peace talks cannot advance as long as the military remains an obstacle. The attempt at establishing a democratic system becomes more fragile, the longer war continues. Myanmar could go through a process of balkanization if insurgencies continue. Racism and prejudice must be confronted if the country is to remain whole. A federal system or semi-autonomous regional systems may be required to address historical grievances. Having another election will not solve these complex political and ethnic problems. Already frustration is beginning to grow. As Myanmar becomes more shunned by the West, it has more closer to China. This increases the likelihood it will be targeted for sanctions. Aung San Suu Kyi has announced that she intends to run for president in the November elections. If a peace deal or some form of agreement is not reached it would make attaining office more difficult. Peace may have to come from a strong executive branch that limits military power. If she does win office, it would need more authority to make a change in policy.    

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

The Need For An International Peace Movement

The world now is more connected than ever. It has become as smaller environment with many people. Warfare and conflict can spread rapidly between continents. Instead of a pathway to stability world powers seek geopolitical competition. The need for an international peace movement has become more pivotal as a means to counter mass global conflict. Humanity's survival could be at risk with the expansion of war zones across nation-states. The world population has the ability to aid in its own extinction with a constant increase of international disputes. Other factors are motivators for acts of aggression. The growing power of xenophobia, racism, and aggressive nationalism exacerbate various global situations. The military industrial complex and the arms trade explain what there is an economic investment in war. World leaders have a political need for permanent warfare. War can act as a unifying force, enemy nations can be a scapegoat for political or social problems, and there comes a level of prestige to the victor nation. Brutal conquests thought to be a relic of the past, just happen differently in the contemporary era. Justifications such as democracy promotion, human rights, or the concept of responsibility to protect are designed to enable western countries to invade African, Asian, and Latin American nations. The simple narrative is that this is liberation from rouge regimes, that abuse their people. The intent is for the UK, US, France, and  Germany to have influence in the former colonies that they once possessed. The countries that feel the impact of neo-colonial imperialism  resist for a period, but this has dire consequences. The wars may end in defeat or long term damage to the countries rebelling against the imposed world order. This shift to using violence and  coercion  is an attempt to stop the rise of a mulipolar world political order. China and Russia are subjects of many US and EU discussions on security. If too much reckless behavior is done the world could fall into another as catastrophic as World War I and World War II. The only logical solution to prevent such risks is to have an international peace movement. With enough pressure, such a movement can stop smaller conflicts and prevent a larger global  conflagration.
         Diplomacy and skilled foreign relations were intended to maintain peace. However, it is being used to ensure that world power competition continues. The shifting alliances are for the sake of military pacts. NATO gradually has become more than about the security of Europe. During the 20th century the alliance was a practical one to counter  the Soviet Union in post -World War II Europe. Instead it is attempting to ensure that western nations maintain predominance and prevent the rise of a multipolar system. NATO has been involved various conflicts from Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Libya. This is technically military aggression disguised as humanitarian intervention and democracy promotion. An international peace movement must counter this false narrative that world opinion has adopted. The praxis of foreign relations and diplomacy must be changed to ensure new conflicts are not created or merge with preexisting ones. The international peace movement must become more involved with the United Nations. For too long major powers have been shielded from the same rules and regulations of the UN Charter. The United States or Israel would never face sanctions for their military actions in the Middle East. International law must be equally applied to all nations, not a select few. The nations that are classified as rogue states such as Iran or  North Korea  are demonized as threats, but their military strength is no where near the level of the US, UK, Germany, France, or Italy. Presenting an existential threat  that is imagined is designed to keep the military industrial complex relevant to foreign policy planning. War has essential become a tool of foreign policy with nations contemplating how to intervene either directly or indirectly. Part of the international peace movement is to separate warfare from foreign policy planning. If this is not done there is a chance of a possible conflict between the US-EU block and the Russia-China alliance.
         The international peace movement must reject the concept of just war and armies . The concept of just war is that it is designed to save people and prevent atrocities. Normally, this is one power dominating a weaker state. If out right conquest can not be achieved, then indirect influence can be established. Venezuela and Bolivia are subject to US influence, which they reject yet the threat of violence is used. Russia has since 2014 gained an abnormal amount of influence in Ukraine. The US frames its own inference as a means of protecting Ukraine, when it is only interested in its own geopolitical objectives. Every country on Earth has an armed force for its alleged protection. Some nations are more than capable of defending themselves, but rationalize aggression and violence as national security. The majority of countries do not want peace. The very fact that armies exist demonstrate that humanity has a long and violent history. For all the advancement in civilization and technology  humankind has not figured out a way to live as neighbors. When this perspective is presented, there is a logical reason to have armies disbanded. Banning armed forces would be impossible considering warfare has been a constant presence in human history. The arms trade, military industrial complex, and  the political establishment have too much investment in perpetual confrontation. The only strategy to counter such powerful forces would be to resist the draft and selective service. It would require that every person of military service age to repudiate calls to serve. The only legitimate circumstance to arm one's self is to resist oppression. That is justified when a political system or state  seeking to control and repress its citizens. The abolition of armies should be a policy. As long as every nation has a military there will never be peace.
         The threat of another mass global conflict has never disappeared. The end of the Cold War gave the world a false sense of security. Instead the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China could be moving toward direct military engagement. All over the world these powers of both Europe and Asia are competing with one another both economically and politically. The Middle East and Africa have become areas of proxy wars in which the opposing powers are arming multiple belligerents in smaller conflicts. It is possible that smaller disputes can escalate into much larger conflicts. The international peace movement must counter world powers attempts to initiate or conduct global war. The public has long convinced itself that leaders do not want war, but policies and actions demonstrate otherwise. War has been used to spread neocolonial imperialism under the context of human rights protection or democratization. The ulterior motive is to gain control of certain natural resources before other world powers do. The international peace movement must stop this behavior, before a possible cataclysmic event occurs. The last two global wars in the 20th century had major repercussions, many which still effect the state of world politics. World War I started due to European colonial imperialism, rival alliance systems, and large power competition. The result of that conflict cause the collapse of the German, Russian, and Ottoman Empire. The economic and political instability that followed gave birth to fascism as an alternative to disorder. World War II stared due the the fascist political movement,aggressive nationalism, and a more militarist imperial ideology. Events such as these could easily happen again. Global war may be a greater possibility with the most powerful nations attempting to impose a governance system on various countries or experimenting with nation building projects. The 2003 Iraq War was an example of using war to advance a geopolitical agenda and making nation building a form of foreign policy. The response was that other nations were going to arm themselves to counter possible aggression for western powers. Internal instability is used by world powers a pretext for invasion. An international peace movement can prevent global conflict, before it reaches a dire level. World leaders have so far not been able or willing to end wars.
         War can destroy society and civilization. The combination of bombing and  the damage from armed forces on the ground can devastate infrastructure and habitability of  a nation. The humanitarian crisis is not just the war itself, but the tragedy that come afterward. Homelessness, poverty, and refugees looking for safety are the results of long term military action. Society cannot be functional without a certain level of development, economic activity, and an active citizenry. The foundation of society are the communities that work and contribute to its daily operation. Without the individuals, families, and groups that constitute a nation, society does not exist. Certain conditions are required to prevent a country from falling into being a failed state. Economic prosperity, limited violence, rule of law, freedom, and equality are the elements that keep society strong. When these elements are not present and some major geopolitical crisis occurs society can collapse. Even the victorious nations in war face a number of public challenges. The issue of integrating combat soldiers back into civilian life becomes more difficult. The mental and physical health decline of former soldiers becomes more evident to a population who begins to question the motivation for war. The victor nation may become more divided over the politics and policies of the government. Division may become so great, the reconciliation and collaboration may not be possible among various political groups. Society becomes so fragmented, a country cannot not be whole. The nation that is defeated in war either remains in a feeble condition or under occupation from the victor. Society cannot exist under the conditions of intense combat.
    Civilization itself is under threat from military aggression. While many like to think that conflicts on other continents do not effect them, this notion is incorrect. Multiple governments could be making alliances with other nations interfering with regional war zones. Obligations under treaties of security may force numerous countries to go to war with one another. A cross continental conflict could be fought on the land, air, or  at sea. Few areas would be safe if  such a mass global conflict were to emerge. Technology has aided the rise of more powerful weapons. The earliest weapons were clubs, which the gave way to daggers. Swords and spears become more widespread. Guns and artillery radically changed war making warfare more lethal. As time passed war became more mechanized with planes and tanks. The invention of nuclear weapons made it possible that humanity could be capable of its own destruction. So far,nuclear war has not been fought. However, there may be some in leadership positions who have the desire or at least contemplated using them. The US, China, Russia, UK , France, Germany, Pakistan, India, and Israel possess nuclear weapons. These countries have complicated relations with one another and there is no guarantee that if war was declared  nuclear weapons would be excluded. A nuclear war could annihilate cities and cause a rapid  decline in public health conditions. Instead of making more treaties to reduce or eliminate nuclear weapons completely some nations chose to pursue an arms race. The US withdraw from the INF Treaty signals a change in 30 years of nuclear weapons policy. The world has not been freed from the prospect of a nuclear exchange. A total global war would be so destructive not only would civilization end, humanity would not survive. An international peace movement could effectively preserve society and civilization for the forces that promote belligerence.
       Human life must be protected and under war this is not feasible. Civilians will ultimately be victims of murder and rape during war. The Geneva Convention states the legal conduct of armies during war and that the attack on civilians constitutes war crimes. Nations that win wars or that are too powerful to punish are not subjected to international law. Less powerful countries are reprimanded more so in comparison. Despite this obvious double standard, responsibility to protect has been invoked to either bully or subjugate nations of the global south. The wars to either save and protect people from rouge states causes more collateral damage. Warfare has never resulted in the protection of human life. Children and the elderly are the most vulnerable. Seniors could be too ill to flee a war zone and conditions may be so poor that immediate medical attention is not possible. Children are dependent on adults for their survival. Parents cannot protect their children under the extreme and predictable war zone environment. There are instances in which children are used as instruments of war. The use of child soldiers has been documented in Myanmar, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the Central African Republic. Robbed of their childhoods, they are forced to fight and be a part of  armed groups or the military. This violation of children's basic rights  goes either unnoticed or is not give enough exposure to the international public. Educating the world about this practice will help advance the international peace movement. Also researching causality figures can help change public opinion. Having such data available may appeal to the ethical standards of a population, that was formally manipulated into supporting war. By the time soldier deaths mount, it is already too late to resist the war policy of  a government. This is the most cogent argument for developing a long lasting international peace movement. The loss of human life is too great a risk to wage war on any level.
       The growing problem of xenophobic nativist nationalism enables confrontation. Dehumanization makes it easier to for people to murder various ethnic or racial groups. Nations justify violence by demonizing other countries as threats or being barbaric. Racism and hate are powerful motivators that get populations to inflict damage upon one another. Ethnic conflicts in Rwanda, Cambodia, the former Yugoslavia, and Myanmar demonstrate how lethal ethnic hatreds can be. The Holocaust and Armenian genocide are horrid reminders of humanity's more malevolent tendencies. Such behavior must be countered to ensure the control of war and violence. Aggressive nationalism must be expunged if there is to be a world of stability. As long as there are nations who believe that it is their right to dominate the world, global security is not possible. Aggression comes in the form of democracy promotion, nation building, and regime change. The smaller and by comparison  militarily weaker authoritarian states become targets not due to their human rights abuses rather their natural resources. A disproportionate number of African, Asian, and Latin American states have faced attack or interference from European countries and the US. The EU and the US feel as if they have a right to intervene in these countries viewing them as lesser beings. Arrogance, racism, and prejudice have come with a price. The system of permanent warfare has created the worst refugee crisis the world has ever seen. Millions have fled the Middle East and Africa as a result of  western military action. There needs to be a change in racial attitudes and the conduct between nations. The international peace movement must not only stop war, but also counter xenophobic nativist nationalism and racist ideology. Such political beliefs make it easier for the justification of aggressive war. The focus should be on fighting ideologies that seek to undermine freedom, equality and human rights.
       A long lasting international peace movement can be a means of preventing mass global conflict, loss of human life, the deterioration of society,  and regional instability. A movement of such a scale cannot be temporary, but a permanent fixture. The environmentalist movement has become an international force bringing attention to the growing problems of climate change. However, there exists no such momentum for a peace movement. Many times they emerge and disappear depending on the length of armed combat. When wars are either won or lost the peace movements vanish. Activism against war must continue, because war planning never stops. NATO, the Pentagon, the EU, and various military think tanks constantly formulate policies for armed combat. Certain countries are targeted for either harassment or regime change in the distant future. There are few organizations involved in an establishment of peace or conflict resolution. The United Nations should be a platform to ensure peace and diplomatic negotiation. Yet, there are cases in which it is a culprit in promoting warfare. UN Resolution 1973 and the Gulf War were questionable acts. Peacekeeping missions can also draw scrutiny. National sovereignty can be violated with a UN peace keeping force attempting to impose order and stability. Few western nations provide troops to UN peacekeeping forces, instead the majority come from African, Asian, or Latin American countries. The model of ensuring peace has not reduced warfare in various areas of the globe. The inadequacy of peace initiatives of the UN become more apparent when examining the war in Yemen, the instability of  South Sudan, and the challenges in the DRC. An international peace movement will have to involve multiple organizations from across the world to ensure practical resolution of ongoing conflicts. The complete disappearance of war may not be a political possibility. So much of human history has been driven by combat, that it almost seems natural behavior. What could be done is gradual commitment to reducing wars and  containing conflicts . An international peace movement is required to ensure that humankind has a future.