Armenians Flee Nagorno-Karabakh

 

Armenians are now fleeing the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan has escalated and is evolving into ethnic conflict. Nagorno-Karabakh's population is majority Armenian and Azerbaijan sees it as part of it territory. A  de facto government was in place, but few nations recognized Nagorno-Karabakh's independence. Azerbaijan is set to take over the break away region and there is speculation more areas could be seized. Reports of ethnic violence have been circulating. Armenians are left with two choices. Either stay in Nagorno-Karabakh and accept being citizens of Azerbaijan. The other option is to flee to Armenia. The fear of reprisals has made Armenians want to leave. Crackdowns are going to follow in an effort to bring the region back into Azerbaijan. Russia at one time sent a peacekeeping force to the region. Some do remain, but the situation in Europe means Russia will not focus on the South Caucasus.  The military action will only increase the power of President Ilham Aliyev. The conquest also has implications for Armenia's own security. Turkey and Azerbaijan are allies. Both countries have an ethnic hatred of Armenians. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did offer to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan. The condition was that the Armenian population would have their right protected and would not face racial discrimination. The peace offer was rejected. The first war lasted from 1988 to 1994. The following conflicts emerged from the power void left after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The war in 2020 resulted in a ceasefire. The conditions in 2023 were different considering Prime Minister Pashinyan is facing massive opposition. The refugees are a symbol of Armenia's defeat by an enemy. Armenian refugees now face the challenge of getting resettled in other aeras. 

The Escalation of Armenia and Azerbaijan Conflict

 

The world is in many ways still dealing with the effects of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Armenia and Azerbaijan when the Soviet Union collapsed became independent nations. No longer under Russian control, old ethnic tensions reemerged. The source of contention is the region known as Nagorno-Karabakh. Both nations claim certain areas of what was at one time an autonomous region as their own. A ceasefire was agreed upon in 1994. Conflagrations once more erupted in 2016. However, the difference in the 2020 clashes reveal that this could escalate into a much larger war. The issue is that a Portion of the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh wants to merge with Armenia. Azerbaijan does not want to lose any territory to its enemy. The Soviet Union created this space to act as a buffer zone against possible ethnic conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. The biggest fear was that any ethnic revolt would would cause the U.S.S.R to fall. Armenian forces occupy territories surrounding the disputed region. Azerbaijan starting in July of 2020 made attempts to gain more territory in   Nagorno-Karabakh. The fighting has intensified with other nations calling on a ceasefire to be made. A large long term war will gain the attention of  Iran, Russia, and Turkey. Armenia and Azerbaijan need to have a permanent peace settlement rather than just temporary ceasefires. A conflict between two nations can easily spread to its neighbors.  Being between both the Caspian and Black Sea makes an Armenia- Azerbaijan war   too geopolitically significant to ignore.