Coordinated Attacks By Terrorist Organizations and Rebel Groups Strike Mali

 

Mali has been under attack from multiple terrorist organizations and rebel groups. Since 2012, Mali has been a state of civil war. The attacks were done in coordination and the intent might be to depose the military junta. Bamako was saw breach in security. Besides the capital, other cities and towns were targets. The outbreak of this violence resulted in an assassination. Defense Minister Sadio Camara was killed. So far, there has been no investigation into how security collapsed when Camara's house was attacked. Assimi Goita remains unharmed. The Front for the Liberation of Azawad and Jama' at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin have been identified as the sources of violence. Most of the attacks are directed at military compounds and bases. More armed groups could be forming with the help of foreign assistance. The Alliance of Sahel States faces a major security challenge. The presence of French troops and UN missions did nothing to end the insurgencies in Mali. France's intent was to exploit Mali's natural resources. The UN wants some type of international relevance, when their credibility is declining. The insurgency can now be described as transforming into a full scale civil war. Malian refugees are seeking safety in Mauritania. The increase of refugee camps has further caused deterioration in human rights in West Africa. ECOWAS or the African Union are not willing to provide assistance to the Malian government fighting a civil war. 

The End of The Bashar al-Assad Presidency

 

Syria's government has been deposed by a combination of terrorist organizations, domestic armed groups, and foreign powers. When Hayat Tahrir al-Sham entered Damascus, President Assad was nowhere to be found. Assad and his family prior to the rebel invasion fled to the Russian Federation. So far, there has not been an announcement from Bashar al-Assad about the situation. A possible bloodless coup occurred, which forced him into a type of self imposed exile. Russia did not come to his aid like in 2015. Iran's current military skirmishes with Israel is the focus of their energies. Israel with President Assad removed launched an invasion into Syrian territory. Syria is not going to become a liberal democracy. The Baath Party was just replaced with HTS. Now it appears that Abu Mohammad al-Jolani will have control of Syria. This depends on how HTS will fight its competitors. Assad's exile to Russia is puzzling. Iran and Oman are likely places in which the Assad family would flee to. Turkey remains in the north of Syria and Iraq will be effected by the change of the Syrian government. Syria now has tranfomed into what Lebanon was during the 1975 to 1990 civil war. The United States now is conducting airstrikes against ISIS in Syria. A fear is that when the Russo-Ukraine War is over, there will be attempt reinstall Bashar al-Assad. Russia has two bases in Syria, which could launch an operation. Although unlikely it might explain why Assad chose to get asylum in Russia. There could be discussions about a military operation to clear terrorist organizations and armed groups from Syria. As long as Bashar al-Assad is alive and politically active this could happen. Considering the amount of political instability, the Assad era is over. Ethnic and religious hatreds are growing with escalating violence. The loyalists to President Bashar al-Assad will never accept a new government.  

The M23 Rebels Connection To Rwanda

 

The M23 rebels are making an attempt to retake areas lost in the war. Clashes in North Kivu have caused fears of another massive civil war. Observers have noted that external forces are active in the DRC. According to the United Nations, Rwanda has been listed as a major contributor to the M23 insurrection. Much of the conflicts stems from the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide in 1994 and the Second Congolese Civil War. The war lasted from 1998 to 2003 displacing many people. Ethnic hatreds did not dissipate, with others accusing President Paul Kagame attempting to make a larger Tutsi state. Rwanda and Burundi were in a state of civil war prior to the 1994 genocide. The Rwandan Patriotic Front continues to dominate the politics of the country, but seeks more influence in the region. The alliance with the M23 rebels might be a means of fighting the Democratic Forces for Liberation of Rwanda. The Hutu rebel group wants to challenge the Rwandan Patriotic Front. During the final years of the Joseph Mobutu regime, Hutu refugees fled to the DRC. Militias have been forming independently of governments. A Tutsi and Hutu reconciliation was never achieved. M23 emerged in 2012 claiming it wanted to protect Tutsis from other Hutu militias. The UN Peacekeeping mission cannot be declared a success. Deaths and internally displaced persons have increased. The Congolese public sees them as an occupying force. Rwanda's growing military intervention into the DRC will harm relations with Uganda. President Yoweri Museveni realizes that the DRC is a major trading partner. The security risk is that the fighting could spill over into Uganda. Congolese asylum seekers are already entering the country. Uganda has taken refugees from other countries such as South Sudan, Burundi, and Eritrea. Rwandan refugees have come to Uganda. The DRC has descended into another humanitarian crisis. President Felix Tshisekedi's options are limited. The Democratic Republic of the Congo could be on the brink of war with Rwanda.  

Niger Has A Military Coup

 

Niger has fallen to a military coup. This is another case in a pattern seen in Mali, Guinea,  and Burkina Faso. Public discord, warfare, and regional instability has produced coups throughout the region. General  Abdourahamane Tchiani is now head of state. The African Union and ECOWAS  have  condemned the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum. Questions remain about the return to civilian leadership. The situation become more bizarre when it was relaized that Tchiani stopped a coup attempt in 2021. The constitution has been suspended with no time frame for it being brought back. Other measures have been taken which include curfews and closing the border of Niger. Power transition and democratic government have not been successful in Niger. This is the fifth coup in Niger's history. These coups occurred in 1974, 1996, 1999, and 2010. The biggest source of Niger's challenges are ISIS and foreign influence in the country. The Sahel has seen a dramatic rise in terrorism and various insurgencies. Groups such as Al Murabitoun, Ansar Dine, Katibat Macina, and Boko Haram are local to the Sahel. The Islamic State of West Africa, Islamic State of the Greater  Sahara , and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb have influence from other countries outside the African continent. These groups fight across borders.   Abdourahamane Tchiani stated the reason for the coup was that President Mohamed Bazoum was unable to keep Niger secure. It is uncertain that the military regimes will do any better at fighting rebel groups or terrorist organizations. The excuse of fighting terrorists and insurgents could used to create more authoritarian political structures. Niger could become isolated if the majority of the continent still recognizes Mohamed Bazoum as head of state.  

Paul Henri Damiba Deposed

 

Burkina Faso is becoming more unstable. Another coup has occurred, which forced Paul Henri Damiba to resign. Clinging to power would mean civil war. This is something Burkina Faso cannot withstand seeing as their is an insurgency. The armed groups are thought to be terrorist organizations. These forces are active in the north and east of Burkina Faso. Mediation efforts are underway to form a new government. The military will still have all of the power with Ibrahim Traore as head of state. The constitution remains suspended. If the constitution remains suspended, then there is no legal means of challenging the military regime. The transitional government no longer exists. By now, most observers can see that the military will be in power for sometime. The French embassy was attacked by protesters thinking they were giving aid to Damiba. France also has a military base in Burkina Faso. He was only in power for eight months and there is little information about his European connections. The coup appears to be an internal matter, not a foreign operation of regime change. The likely tools of regime change are armed groups that are associated with ISIS or al-Qaeda. A country going through a series of leaders shows a lack of stability. The lack of security and activity of terrorist organizations only gives the military regime justification for anti-democratic measures. Condemnation from the African Union and ECOWAS has not changed Burkina Faso's policy positions. Part of the agreement of Damiba's departure was that he will not be charged with crimes against the state.    

Chadian President Idriss Deby Has Been Killed By Rebels

 

The longtime president of Chad has been killed by rebels. This comes after it was announced to serve his sixth term as president of the African country. Idriss Deby came to power in 1990 through a rebellion against the Hissene Habre regime. President Idriss Deby was one of Africa's longest serving leaders. Under his leadership reforms were limited and the same authoritarian structure remained in place. Chad's military involvement in other neighboring countries is disturbing its internal security. Chad has been a partner in France's campaign to combat terrorism in Africa. Although Deby was allied to EU countries, Chad had diplomatic relations with China. Chad is of interest to due to its large oil reserves and cotton production . Many times his regime was saved from revolt through French military assistance. The army announced Deby's death, naming his son as a successor. This is seen as a coup rather than a constitutional transfer of power. Mahamat Deby the son of   Idriss is a commander in the Chadian Army. He was commander of the UN peacekeeping forces in Mali. The rebels intend to take the capital, but this may not be so simple considering Mahamat's military experience. There are growing fears that N' Djamena will become a battle ground. Little evidence exists to suggest Idriss Deby was assassinated  or victim of a conspiratorial plot. The official narrative was that he was visiting soldiers on the frontline and was slain from a sudden attack. The death of Deby will have an impact on Nigeria, Cameroon, and Niger. Those nations established a strong military alliance to fight rebel factions and terrorist organizations. Idriss Deby promised peace and security to Chad, but instead engaged in military interventions. Sudan, Libya, and the African Central Republic saw the involvement of Chadian soldiers in protracted  conflicts. His legacy will be one of war and violence.