Monday, December 9, 2024

The End of The Bashar al-Assad Presidency

 


Syria's government has been deposed by a combination of terrorist organizations, domestic armed groups, and foreign powers. When Hayat Tahrir al-Sham entered Damascus, President Assad was nowhere to be found. Assad and his family prior to the rebel invasion fled to the Russian Federation. So far, there has not been an announcement from Bashar al-Assad about the situation. A possible bloodless coup occurred, which forced him into a type of self imposed exile. Russia did not come to his aid like in 2015. Iran's current military skirmishes with Israel is the focus of their energies. Israel with President Assad removed launched an invasion into Syrian territory. Syria is not going to become a liberal democracy. The Baath Party was just replaced with HTS. Now it appears that Abu Mohammad al-Jolani will have control of Syria. This depends on how HTS will fight its competitors. Assad's exile to Russia is puzzling. Iran and Oman are likely places in which the Assad family would flee to. Turkey remains in the north of Syria and Iraq will be effected by the change of the Syrian government. Syria now has tranfomed into what Lebanon was during the 1975 to 1990 civil war. The United States now is conducting airstrikes against ISIS in Syria. A fear is that when the Russo-Ukraine War is over, there will be attempt reinstall Bashar al-Assad. Russia has two bases in Syria, which could launch an operation. Although unlikely it might explain why Assad chose to get asylum in Russia. There could be discussions about a military operation to clear terrorist organizations and armed groups from Syria. As long as Bashar al-Assad is alive and politically active this could happen. Considering the amount of political instability, the Assad era is over. Ethnic and religious hatreds are growing with escalating violence. The loyalists to President Bashar al-Assad will never accept a new government.  

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