Sudan's War Induced Balkanization

 

Sudan is balkanizing due to civil war. The Rapid Support Forces control a significant portion of the eastern section of  the country. The RSF is not the only group fighting. The Sudan Liberation Movement and the Sudan People's Liberation army are active in combat. Those two rebel factions control the least amount territory. The Sudan Armed Forces is fighting a war to keep Sudan whole. A victory by the Sudan Armed Forces does not mean liberation from oppression or violence. Sudan is under the rule of a military regime. President  Abdel Fattah al-Burhan will use the civil war as an excuse to maintain power. Even if the RSF is defeated, the military regime will make a justification for restrictions rights and political opposition. President Abdel Fattah al-Burhan at the UN accused the RSF of atrocities, but ignored the army's role in violence. His demand is that the RSF withdraw from the land they have taken if  they want a peace deal. There are indications that the United Arab Emirates and Egypt have some degree of involvement in the conflict. The UAE has been accused of supporting the RSF. Egypt was accused by Mohamed Dagalo of conducting airstrikes on the behalf of the Sudan Armed Forces. What happens in Sudan will effect its neighbors. Large numbers of people are constantly being displaced.  The Sudan Armed Forces continue to fight despite efforts to make a ceasefire. The objectives are to regain lost territory and subdue the RSF. The next step is to take back the capital Khartoum. If the government fails either the RSF takes over all of Sudan or it breaks up into smaller countries. After RSF violence a portion of Sudanese will never accept the RSF as a legitimate government. The map of East Africa could be changed depending on the war's outcome.