The Changes Coming To Eastern Europe

 

The Alaska Summit was held by President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The meeting did not produce any peace settlements or an end to violence. The speculation was that it was a discussion of partition of Ukraine. President Zelensky is set to meet with President Trump after the Alaska Summit.  The Russia-Ukraine War has changed Eastern Europe. Belarus is viewed with more hostility due to its alliance with the Russian Federation. The country has not sent any forces, but is subject to sanctions by the European Union. The rest of Eastern Europe is becoming more militarized. Poland does host US air defense systems and military bases. Even if a peace settlement is reached, US military bases will not be removed. Ukraine will lose territory and the western section under a US- European Union sphere of influence. Hungary being closer to the Russian Federation is seeing a decline in relations with the UK and Germany. The war is also causing changes in the Balkans and the Baltic. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are going to be given more arms. Kosovo is going to be pushed to be recognized to undermine Serbia.  NATO members in Europe are expected to increase spending to 5% of their GDP. The economic consequences are going to be negative for the citizens of the UK, Germany, France, and Italy. As taxation increases and social services are cut, public discord will grow. The demographic shift in Ukraine is going to effect the rest of Europe. Since 2022, Ukrainians have fled to avoid military service, violence, and seek safety. As more people die, the country is feeling the consequences of population decline. The Ukrainians that are refugees, might not decide to return. More refugees are going to come when the war is over. Sudden increases of refugee traffic from inside Europe will generate resentment. The loss of the Russia-Ukraine War will halt efforts at European integration. Eastern Europe is becoming divided between EU-NATO supporting countries and those that want diplomatic relations with Russia. 

European Union Increases Sanctions On Russia

 

The European Union has placed more sanctions on the Russian Federation. Sanctions have not ended the Russia-Ukraine War. These sanctions are ineffective and are having negative economic effects on EU countries. The increase in fuel prices harms businesses and consumers in Europe. The majority of African and Asian nations are not placing sanctions on the Russian Federation. The reason is due to the fact Russia has better relations with the Global South. Ukraine's war effort is taking a turn for the worst. The exchange of drone warfare and missiles has added to the brutality of the war. Ukraine has hit Moscow with long range missiles and did an incursion into Kursk. At some point, the Ukrainian military will collapse. The conflict is a war of attrition and a proxy operation under the supervision of NATO. Eastern Europe is not only being militarized, but the entire EU. Sanctions only hinder efforts at diplomatic resolution. President of the European Commission Ursula Von Der Leyen proposed  a 131 billion euro defense budget. This is going to paid for by taxing the citizens of the European Union countries. The United Kingdom hold the position of keeping the conflict going. The US has not produced a peace settlement and the majority of talks end in failure. The Istanbul talks are not going to end the conflict as long as sanctions are imposed on Russian energy. Now that President Zelensky is facing internal protests, his political future is uncertain. Protesters were voicing their grievances about government corruption. Even if the war ends the internal situation in Ukraine will be unstable. The EU would probably support an authoritarian Zelensky dictatorship for the sake of undermining the Russian Federation. Belarus could in the future subject to even more sanctions to harm a Russian ally.     

The European Union Does Not Want Peace In Ukraine

 

The European Union does not want a peace settlement in Ukraine. Since the Russia-Ukraine War broke out military aid and arms have been given by EU members. As Ukraine's losses mount, the much obvious path would be to start negotiations. The motivation for the European Union to keep the war going is to change the political dynamics of Europe. For European liberals and conservatives the war is a crusade to reinvigorate western values. Europe is struggling with its identity and cohesion. The era of large empires and international dominance has been declining gradually. European integration has to be in this view forcibly imposed on Eastern Europe. The West and Eastern Europe differ by politics and culture. The Russian Federation has a more traditional culture and is more aligned with the Global South. The EU member states are oriented to liberal democratic values with globalist sentiments. Conflict in Eastern Europe can be a gateway for forcing European integration on countries that do not favor it. The European Union insisted that the current was was unprovoked, when it was the 2014 coup that resulted in a series of unfortunate events. The Russian Federation either being weakened or dismantled would mean Europe would not have to be reliant on the country for energy. While it is apparent that Ukraine is not going to win the war, EU states do not want it to stop. France suggested sending some its own soldiers to Ukraine. Chances of a ceasefire are out of reach, even though President Putin would be open to an arrangement. President Zelensky does not believe the offer is genuine. The concern now is that the EU member states could send troops to Ukraine. Such a decision could spark a large European war.  

Ukraine Rejects Peace Proposals

 

Ukraine has rejected peace proposals. The reason relates to the fact that Russia occupies the eastern section of the country. Ukraine is divided not only politically, but on an ethnic basis. Ukrainians at this stage might not be willing to accept their ethnic Russian neighbors. The support for the Russian Federation is present in areas with more Russian speakers. President Zelensky does not want to negotiate without getting the territories lost back. The Ukrainian military is not strong enough to do so without aid or direct assistance from other European powers. There is no pathway for Ukraine to win or expel Russia. The Trump administration claimed it would have some form of agreement. The problem is that with no INF Treaty, nuclearization of Eastern Europe will continue. The Biden administration refused to acknowledge that the conflict was a war of proxy. The intent was to weaken the Russian Federation using Ukraine as a trap. The situation is different from the Soviet-Afghan War during the 1980s. Ukraine has become a victim of US geopolitical designs. Demands are being made by the US for Ukraine to agree to a mineral deal. Ukraine has lithium, titanium, and uranium deposits. Natural resources explains the US interference in Ukraine. Russia wants to halt NATO expansion and promote Slavic nationalism in Eastern Europe. The war could be coming to a close, but the aftermath will have devasting consequences. Ukraine is not going to escape the debt from the billions borrowed from EU nations. The US is going to more control over Ukraine's economic affairs. A peace proposal could save the government. President  Volodymyr Zelensky could either be removed by Russians or deposed by his own people. Cancelling elections demonstrates that he knows his support has waned or that he wants to remain in power indefinitely. A peace settlement is the only rational choice to bring Europe back to stability.      

Romania's Protests Against The Cancelled Presidential Elections

 

Romania is seeing protests due to the cancellation of the presidential election. The reasoning behind this decision was suspected Russian interference. The evidence has yet to be made public and the motivation is political. The possibility of the AUR Party winning was a threat to the political establishment. The AUR is far-right and it is assumed that this type of behavior would come from those of that political affiliation. Romania's Constitutional Court ruled in favor of the annulment of the presidential election. The Romanian Constitutional Court needs to provide evidence of electoral fraud or foreign influence for this decision to be legal. Otherwise, this is a case of the judiciary violating the public's right to vote. A new election is being scheduled, but there is concern they could be postponed. Romania's internal crisis poses a problem for the European Union. The claim is that the EU supports liberal democracy and human rights. However, if it is a political party from another ideological spectrum, then few words of condemnation are given. Calin Georgescu if he runs again, might find that the election will be annulled a second time. Public discord could grow from a error in the Romanian Constitutional Court. The only charges Georgescu was given were related to campaign funds and the use of certain digital technologies. Georgescu never revealed the financial sources for his campaign. An investigation would probably not show that Calin Georgescu was being influenced by a foreign government. Romania is not under Russian influence. During the Cold War, Romania was the most independent of the Eastern Bloc nations. Romania refused to invade Czechoslovakia in 1968 along with the U.S.S.R. Romania is being influenced by the EU and NATO countries. The coalition government tends to favor the West, rather than the Eastern European region.      

President Salome Zourabichvili Refuses To Acknowledge Election Results

 

President Salome Zourabichvili does not recognize the elections results. This was because the outcome was not to her liking. As demonstrations continue throughout the country, there are concerns that the newly elected government will not be able to enter office. President Zourabichvili has accused the political opposition of electoral fraud and the outcome being the result of Russian interference. None of these claims have evidence. Much of the current crisis relates to Georgia being part of the European Union or being closer to the  Eastern European  sphere. The change in the Georgian Constitution from a presidential to parliamentary system also has divided the public. The citizens can no longer vote directly for their head of state. Now it is done by electors. A constitutional crisis is underway and  President Salome Zourabichvili has stated that she will not step down. Her demand is to have another round of parliamentary elections. The pro-EU demonstrations also parallel Ukraine in 2014. Violence has not escalated to the point of civil war, but unrest can be used as an excuse for authoritarian rule. While the Georgian Dream Party is a more conservative aligned,   President Salome Zourabichvili's action of undermining the process indicates a desire to increase power of the state. Georgia does have oil, but is not the biggest energy producer in Europe. This explains why the European Union  has interest in the country. The location of Georgia is also geopolitically significant. Georgia is not part of NATO, but President Salome Zourabichvili  aspires to get the country into the alliance. There is not legal pathway for President Salome Zourabichvil to overturn election results. She might try to convince the European Union to intervene on her behalf. Elected president in 2018, President Salome Zourabichvili appears more focused on European integration, rather than Georgia's domestic concerns. 

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict And The Use of ATACMS

 

Ukraine has been supplied with MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems. Ukraine has attacked inside Russian territory and now it is being with more weapons. The use of ATACMS proves that the conflict in Eastern Europe is a proxy war between NATO and the Russian Federation. Ukraine's chances of winning the conflict have decreased. Recapturing the Donbas and Crimea are out of reach. The Biden administration supplying ATACMS is another escalation in the Russia-Ukraine War. The Russian Federation asserted the conflict was a special military operation, but it is apparent NATO wants to be aggressive with the Russian Federation. There is little hope that with an incoming Trump administration that a peace settlement will be obtained. The European Union is thus left to figure out how to manage an energy crisis and a new wave of Ukrainian refugees. President Biden's supply of ATACMS is an attempt to reverse Ukraine's military failures. The conditions have worsened with the US embassy being shut. The Russian Federation could retaliate with massive airstrikes. Some European leaders are realizing that arming Ukraine is causing more destabilization of Europe. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed he will not supply Taurus long range missiles to the conflict. This is not so much for peace, but due to the fact an election is approaching in Germany. Chancellor Scholz has spoken with President Vladimir Putin. This was the first time since December of 2022. There is no indication in the hour long phone call that a peace settlement was discussed. Germany might be more interested in continuing its economic partnership with the Russian Federation. The recent shipment of arms from the UK and US are not going to produce  the military defeat of the Russian Federation. It has been speculated that some want the war to continue for the sake of the arms industry. Lockheed Martin is that main producer of ATACMS. The Russia-Ukraine War provides a market for various weapons.  

North Korean Involvement in The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Reports have been circulating that North Korea has sent Russia troops to Ukraine. Russia and North Korea have become more close over the years. Despite the fact Russia abandoned communism in 1991, North Korea sees the Russia alliance as critical. North Korea has been forced into isolation through sanctions and the United Nations. Video was also posted showing North Korean soldiers putting on gear with Russian soldiers. The North Korean forces are allegedly active in Kursk. Ukraine launched attacks inside of Russia. As the proxy war expands, more countries will get involved. North Korea's motivation could be a way to prevent future attacks by NATO. North Korea could be subject to a NATO intervention. Another motive is to get access to Ukraine's wheat. North Korea struggles with food security. Getting access to Ukrainian wheat could solve this problem. South Korea might react by supporting Ukraine with troops. North Korea and South Korea have been in a state of war since the Cold War. That would mean the tension on the Korean peninsula would spill over into Eastern Europe. NATO and South Korea have given conflicting numbers about the total number of North Korean forces. South Korea has stated it could be a total of 12,000 North Korean forces. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte put the number at 10,000. The numbers might be exaggerated for other reasons. It might be used as a justification for EU countries to attack North Korea. North Korea entering the war does not change the status in Eastern Europe. The Russian Federation is getting closer to winning the conflict. North Korea most likely is acting as a substitute for Belarus. Belarus did not send its forces to Ukraine. North Korea possibly going there as minor auxiliary support.   

Viktor Orban Urges Ceasefire In The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban travelled to Ukraine to promote a ceasefire. Prime Minister Oban has not visited Ukraine since the conflict broke out in 2022. There have been attempts to make peace, but all have failed. President Volodymyr Zelensky has constantly asked for more aid from the European Union. One topic that was mentioned in the meeting was the ethnic Hungarians that reside in Ukraine. Tension exists with the Roma and ethnic Russian population. The discussion was related to the rights of the 100,000 Hungarians. Other bilateral matters were mentioned. After visiting Ukraine, Prime Minister Orban went to the Russian Federation. This did draw criticism from some EU countries, but seeking peace or an end to the war should not be condemned. Talking with President Vladimir Putin would help deescalate tensions. There is a possibility that these meetings will not produce any results. Hungary's motivations are not all altruistic. Seeking a ceasefire may be a means of preemptively stopping the chance of Ukrainian  refugees entering Hungary. Prime Minister Orban does not favor immigration to his country. When the war ends,  other EU nations are going to seek more influence in Ukraine. Hungary might be seeking to invest in Ukraine. Details and motivations remain unclear. If Viktor Orban was able to obtain a peace settlement that would elevate Hungary's diplomatic status. 

The European Union 2024 Elections

 

Europe is moving in the direction of the far-right. Much of this was predicted based on economic and political issues, The 2008 financial crisis created much social stress and it was followed by the refugee crisis. The Arab Spring since 2010 has caused massive waves of those fleeing countries in a state of war or subject to regime change. The issue persisted and far-right political parties exploited it to their advantage. When the Russia-Ukraine War broke out sanctions were imposed. This had an opposite effect, because Europe is dependent on Russian energy. The economic hardship that followed that policy caused unemployment and inflation. The citizens of EU countries lashed out by electing far-right parties in the 2024 EU elections. Political centrism is not going to stop the growing discontent across Europe. The voters are getting more vexed with a political establishment that does not respond t their needs. This might explain why French President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections. France is seeing a similar phenomenon in domestic politics. Many times far-right parties claim to have moderated their views. The tactic is designed to deceive voters of true intentions. The new far-right would not be fascist by definition. Analysts of political science call them populist, but the term is not specific enough for this shift. The precise term is xenophobic nativist nationalism. Those who have been active in politics for a number of years still do not comprehend the nature of this movement. Either it could become a serious threat to democratic institutions or a fringe movement regulated to forgotten history. Political conditions are not so turbulent that a totalitarian system could emerge. Under extreme economic and social distress it can. The European left must become formidable enough to challenge the establishment, centrist,  and the new xenophobic nativist nationalism movement. Otherwise the far-right parties are going to become more powerful.    

Victoria Nuland Curses The European Union (2014)

 

Victoria Nuland one of America's prominent diplomats will be leaving her post. The circumstances are not clear, but it indicates that there is a problem with the direction of US foreign policy. Nuland worked under the Bush, Obama, and Biden administrations. Her goal was to get aggressive with the Russian Federation. The policy related to Ukraine was interference. Victoria Nuland back in 2014 cursed the European Union. The reason was that it was not following an anti-Russian policy. The United States under a neoconservative framework should have more influence in Europe. The European Union is viewed more like an obstacle to making the continent subordinate. Seeing as she was the US ambassador to NATO, Nuland wanted to see the military alliance expand. Ukraine was going to be a testing ground for further expansion. The phone call been the US ambassador and Nuland indicates an attempt to select Ukrainian leadership. Nuland is a reminder that no matter who is elected, the foreign policy mechanisms remain the same. Victoria Nuland leaves a legacy of destabilizing Eastern Europe.  

Alexei Navalny's Emergence And Anti-Immigrant Politics (2012)

 

Alexei Navalny emerged during the 2010s as a figure of political opposition to Vladimir Putin. The lawyer turned blogger became an activist fighting corruption related to the role of business in government. The press tried to present him as a hero fighting authoritarianism in the Russian government. Honest reporting revealed that Navalny had political views that expressed xenophobic sentiment and racism. Navalny showed disdain for migrants. Central Asians, Muslims for the Caucasus, and Georgians he expressed were causing problems for the Russian Federation. He stated that Central Asians were trafficking drugs into Russia. Far-right nationalism and racism have been on the rise in Russia. Alexei Navalny wanted to use this development to build a movement. This ultranationalist movement Alexei Navalny was intended to replace the prominence of the United Russia Party. The West had interest in Navalny as a means of undermining President Vladimir Putin. Navalny was not trying to eliminate corruption rather replace the established oligarchs. Alexei Navalny died in prison and some have rushed to the conclusion Vladimir Putin ordered his death. Accusations of poisoning have been made, but there is no toxicology report to confirm this. Navalny was arrested in 2021. The charges ranged from violating court parole, encouraging extremism, and embezzlement. It can not be said that he got a fair trail under the current political circumstances. The Russian Federation will be divided over Alexei Navalny as a public figure.    

The Status The Wagner Group

 

Through out the world a number of mercenary groups are active. The Wagner Group has become notable since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin has created questions about the Wagner Group's status. Accusations have been made that President Putin wanted him eliminated, but there is no evidence of this. Prior to his death, there was an attempt at a Wagner Group coup. A settlement was reached that was proposed by President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus. The forces would remain in his country and Yevgeny Prigozhin would be pardoned. The likely candidates for the assassination  could be Ukraine, Poland, or one of the Baltic states. An investigation has not been conducted so this remains mere conjecture. What the Russian government did determine was that Prigozhin did die in a plane crash.  The Wagner Group was not only active in Eastern Europe. Africa is another place of operation for the mercenary group. The Wagner Group has been active since 2014 and remains independent of the Russian government. The organization itself is listed in Russia as a private military company. Under Russian law mercenary groups are illegal. The Wagner Group has similarities to Black Water. The distinction between private military company and mercenary becomes blurred considering the majority are operating in war zones. The Wagner Group could either be disbanded or put into exile in Belarus. It seems unlikely that President Putin would arrest all members of the Wagner Group. Operations in  Mali, the Central African Republic, Sudan, and Libya are still active. The Wagner Group is being used by some leaders to fight terrorist organizations and armed insurgencies. The reward from this are gold mining contracts which generates wealth for the company. One option for the Wagner Group is to merge with the Russian military. Unless there is some crackdown on the Wagner Group, it will continue to function. The death of    Yevgeny Prigozhin creates a high level of tension and uncertainty. The Russian Federation might be more cautious in regards to the use of mercenaries and private military companies. 

Rising Tension Between Poland And Belarus

 

Belarus and Poland are seeing a decline in diplomatic relations. Poland has stated that Belarus sent military helicopters into its air space. Now rumors are circulating that there is a possibility of a military strike. Belarus has not engaged in the war in Ukraine. The country has allowed Russian troops to be stationed in its territory. However, no Belarusians have fought in the conflict, Fears have grown that Belarus will either be pulled into the conflict by NATO or forced to do so by the Russian Federation. Ever since the Wagner Group incident, the mercenary organization has remained in Belarus. NATO has accused it of attempting to threaten member states by using Belarus as a base. The air space incident probably was not intentional. Minsk did alert Warsaw about a military exercise they were conducting. If there was a plan of a war, a nation would not make its plans known to a foreign government. It has been known that Poland has attempted to instigate conflict with Belarus. Much of the tension focuses on the Suwalki gap. This border has much strategic significance to Russia, Belarus, and the EU. The vital link to Kaliningrad is an area the Russian Federation does not want to lose. If Belarus was invaded by NATO that would put Russia in a precarious situation. The Poland and Belarus tension is the direct result of NATO adding members such as Finland as well as Sweden. The counter by being active in the Suwalki gap would be to cut off the Baltic states from other NATO members. Poland is having diplomatic disputes with Ukraine. Their is frustration from Poland when it comes to assisting Ukraine in grain export. Poland has provided aid to Ukraine, but a sentiment exists that Ukraine has not been appreciative for the help. Belarus would not attack Poland due to Article Five. Belarus would then have to fight the majority of European countries. Poland has an investment in attacking Belarus. The view is that it is not its own country, but a Russian extension. If that were the case Belarus would have been more active in Ukraine. The decline in Polish-Belarusian relations reveals the rapid destabilization of Eastern Europe.   

The Russian Anti-War Protests

 

Since 2022 there have been anti-war protests in Russia. The protesters disagree with President Putin's invasion of Ukraine and NATO instigation. The press in the UK, US, France, and Germany does not acknowledge the anti-war movement in Russia. Anti-war activists globally have not made connections to organizations active in the Russian Federation. The reason other countries do not recognize the Russian anti-war movement is because it does not fit a certain narrative. The press and government of Europe and North America wants to present an image of a nefarious Russian Federation. Russophobia has become a normalized sentiment extending to a wider xenophobia. The language and paranoia of the Cold War has reemerged even though the Soviet Union no longer exists. Russian are seen as malevolent, rather than focusing on actions of the United Russia Party. The existence of anti-war activists in Russia dismantles the narrative of Russians unanimously supporting the government. The unusual aspect is that some would think that the EU would want to show support to the protest. The motivation would not be out of concern for the cause of peace, but rather to undermine President Vladimir Putin. Russian anti-war activists face imprisonment and are harassed by the government. The anti-war activists in other countries have shown limited support for those inside the Russian Federation. Suppression and lack of international solidarity will cause the anti-war movement in Russia to disappear. The estimate for the number of detained was 1,700 in 2022. The figures could be higher, but an official number has not been confirmed for 2023. The anti-war movement in Russia also has broken into factions divided on issues related to those who want President Putin to resign and support for opposition leader Alexei Navalny. 

NATO Expansion Continues

 

NATO continues to expand with the addition of Finland. While the majority of the expansion has happened in Eastern Europe, now it has gone to Scandinavia. The justification for this addition to the military alliance is due to the Russia-Ukraine War. NATO expansion was one of the reasons the conflict broke out there. Sweden might also follow Finland in membership. The error is that this makes Europe more militarized and also contributes to the arms trade. Numerous corporations make profit from the military build-up and conflict in Europe. The failure of the West and Russia to reach a consensus has resulted in destabilization. The Russian Federation has no intent to invade Finland and Sweden. The Soviet Union lost a war to Finland. This was during the rule of Joseph Stalin and it demonstrates that Finland is more than capable of its own defense. Russia would not attack Finland considering its involvement in Ukraine. The invasion on the behalf of Russian militias in the Donbas has resulted in the opposite effect. More ate supporting NATO expansion, when the real objective is not security. NATO is being used as an armed force for regime change. Russia could in the distant future fall to a Yugoslavia style military intervention. Russia has another means of confronting this. Belarus overtime will be armed to counter the Baltic states and Ukraine. Finland's addition comes at a time when Europe is more tense than ever. The price of membership could have negative effects on the internal politics of Finland and its economy. 

Zimbabwe and Belarus Are Collaborating In The Agricultural Sector

 

Zimbabwe and Belarus are enhancing economic ties. The agricultural sector will see an increase in collaboration between the two countries. Belarus intends to send more tractors, trucks,  seed drills, and grain harvesters to Zimbabwe. Belarus also wants to extend diplomatic relations. The reason for this is due to the fact the two nations face sanctions from European countries. Belarus has become more isolated over the years in Europe. The only reliable ally in Europe for Belarus is Russia. Looking to nations out of Europe ensures that the country will not be a victim of economic warfare. Zimbabwe has been able to resist decades of sanctions. Since 2000, there has been an effort to get land back into the hands of Africans in Zimbabwe. White farmers under white  minority rule stole the wealth of the Zimbabweans. Gaining equipment and training a new generation of framers has significant benefit. Land reform and increase in exports will improve Zimbabwe's economic situation. Through agriculture Zimbabwe can increase food security and ensure stable employment levels. The collaboration began  around 2020. A new approach is being taken with Zimbabwe. Open dialogue and mutually beneficial economic agreements is the best form of diplomacy. The EU continues to isolate Zimbabwe and Belarus. As a result many countries are missing economic opportunities who favor sanctions on these nations. If all the terms of the agreements are met, Zimbabwe could see immense growth in its agricultural sector.      

Germany Will Send Leopard 2 Tanks To Ukraine

 

Germany  has confirmed that it will give Ukraine more arms. What Ukraine will be getting is leopard 2 tanks. For months, the public has been told that Russia will not be successful. Now, it appears that the Russian Federation will maintain the territories in the Donbas. Russia has more tanks than Ukraine, so this will not dramatically change the situation. The only people who benefit are the arms manufacturers. The war in Ukraine has increased profits for these corporations. The Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates the devasting effects of the military industrial complex. The major concern for Germany is that they would be pushed out the arms market in Europe by the United States. Gradually, the war is escalating and might spread. Belarus or Moldova could be drawn into the conflict. Chancellor Olof Scholz stated only 14 tanks are being sent to Ukraine. It should be assumed that more will come. The US and United Kingdom are sending tanks, which indicates some economic competition. Sending more weapons prolongs the conflict and results in more loss of life. More arms come, a peace settlement becomes more unattainable. NATO does not want a peace settlement and Russia has lost patience . The conflict could last months or  years with more arms shipments.   

Fears Grow of Belarus Entering The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Belarus could play a military role in the Russia-Ukraine War. The annexations in the eastern section of Ukraine demonstrate that the Russian Federation could win the war. Sources have reported that military drills have increased in Belarus. President Alexander Lukashenko ordered Belarussian troops to deploy with Russia's forces along the Ukraine border. If Belarus is about to invade, Ukraine would have to fight in both the north and east. The response to Belarus has been the threat of sanctions. Belarus was a staging ground for Russian troops in the invasion. Belarus has not engaged in combat operations. If the war continues the country might be tempted to join. Ukraine cannot win on its own and at some stage will face partition. Belarus could be calculating which parts it would take from Ukraine. This is why a peace settlement must be reached before a larger onslaught. The attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines and Crimea indicate dramatic escalation of the conflict. Debate remains about how effective the Belarussian military would be in the war. Belarus has not been at war for 30 years. Strikes in the north of Ukraine could reduce strength of forces in the south and east. Belarus is not a NATO member, but Russia might believe in the distant future it could forced into that orbit. President Lukashenko is often presented as a puppet pressured  by the Russian Federation. If that were the case Belarus would have joined the fighting by now. Russia and Belarus are close allies, but it does not mean it does not mean the country will blindly follow. The Russian Federation has the option of building up Belarus as a counter to a NATO backed Ukraine. Belarus also acts as a buffer state against Poland and Lithuania. If Belarus enters the war, then the conflict could spread throughout Eastern Europe.   

The Darya Dugina Assassination

 

Journalist Darya Dugina was assassinated under mysterious circumstances. A car bomb was detonated, but no group has claimed responsibility for the murder. The speculation was that some in Ukraine were the culprits. Other theories are that it was the Russian government itself. No evidence of this has been produced. The murder will surely have an impact on the Russia-Ukraine war. The official statements by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is that it was a Ukrainian plot. Natalia Vovk is a suspect in the murder. Ukraine continues to deny accusations that it planned an assassination. It is unclear if Darya was the actual target or Alexander Dugin. Darya was supportive of Russia's invasion, which would make her a target. Ukraine made the claim that the real culprits were Russian separatists groups. The FSB claims it was a conspiracy of the Azov Battalion. Darya Dugina was not a political figure and did not hold power in the United Russia Party. This was an attack of extremists on a journalist. Oddly, the media is not framing it in that way. The reason could be due to growing anti-Russian sentiment in the West. Journalists of all nations face the threat of violence or death.