Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Enter A New Era of Diplomatic Relations

 

Border clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have been taking place for over 30 years. These circumstances relate to how the Soviet Union divided Central Asia. When independence was granted as the result of the Soviet collapse in 1991, the new countries were in conflict. Between 2021 and 2022 the clashes between the two Central Asian states became more lethal. President Emomali Rahmon  and President Sadyr Japarov signed an agreement outlining what the defined borders would be. Since 2022, roads, railway, and air links were closed off. War or regional conflict only undermines the whole of Central Asia. This change in policy should be an example to all countries in the world. Conflict and war spreads while diplomacy is not given much consideration. The challenge is if Tajik and Kyrgyz  citizens will accept a peace settlement. Ethnic hatreds remain in particular areas. President Emomali Rahmon has ruled the country since 1994. Prior to this, he was Chairmen of the Supreme Assembly between 1992 to 1993. His power is immense being increased by constitutional referendums. President Rahmon has more power to maintain peace or disregard a peace settlement. President Sadyr Japarov does not have authoritarian power like other Central Asian leaders. Kyrgyzstan was during the 2000s rotating through various interim presidents. This was the result of the Tulip revolution. A change in administration could effect relations with Tajikistan. For now, the agreement to end hostilities remain intact.      

Terrorist Attack In Moscow

 

Russia has experienced a terrorist attack. Reports state that the culprits are connected to ISIS. The Russian government has reported that 137 people were killed in the attack. The Crocus City Hall concert venue was the target of the culprits. The four gunmen have been arrested and are on trial. President Putin when addressing the Russian Federation asserted that the gunmen were trying to flee to Ukraine. There is not enough information to know the exact plans of the terrorists. Making a connection to Ukraine would be premature. Ukraine has conducted strikes into Russian territory. This has been done with missiles and drones. The only reason that ISIS would attack Russia is due to its support of Syria. The reason ISIS and other terrorist organizations could not takeover was due to Russian intervention in the country. The suspects are from Tajikistan. The Central Asian countries have been fighting terrorist organizations for decades. The reason people join them is due to the anger at authoritarian regimes in the region. More people are being detained which has reached a total of 11 suspects. This might indicate a wider criminal conspiracy and possible interference from other countries. The US claims it shared information of a possible attack with Russia. This seems uncharacteristic of the US. due to the fact relations have been poor since 2014.The sanctions were designed to harm the Russian population, not its government. The EU using terrorist organizations to destabilize a country remains policy. This occurred in both Syria and Libya. The process could be replicated in Russia. At the moment this would be mere speculation. The FSB 's investigation is ongoing.    

Alexei Navalny's Emergence And Anti-Immigrant Politics (2012)

 

Alexei Navalny emerged during the 2010s as a figure of political opposition to Vladimir Putin. The lawyer turned blogger became an activist fighting corruption related to the role of business in government. The press tried to present him as a hero fighting authoritarianism in the Russian government. Honest reporting revealed that Navalny had political views that expressed xenophobic sentiment and racism. Navalny showed disdain for migrants. Central Asians, Muslims for the Caucasus, and Georgians he expressed were causing problems for the Russian Federation. He stated that Central Asians were trafficking drugs into Russia. Far-right nationalism and racism have been on the rise in Russia. Alexei Navalny wanted to use this development to build a movement. This ultranationalist movement Alexei Navalny was intended to replace the prominence of the United Russia Party. The West had interest in Navalny as a means of undermining President Vladimir Putin. Navalny was not trying to eliminate corruption rather replace the established oligarchs. Alexei Navalny died in prison and some have rushed to the conclusion Vladimir Putin ordered his death. Accusations of poisoning have been made, but there is no toxicology report to confirm this. Navalny was arrested in 2021. The charges ranged from violating court parole, encouraging extremism, and embezzlement. It can not be said that he got a fair trail under the current political circumstances. The Russian Federation will be divided over Alexei Navalny as a public figure.    

The Russian Mobilization

 

Russian mobilization marks a turning point in the war. Ukraine could be engulfed by the Russian Federation if a peace settlement is not reached. NATO expansion is what instigated the conflict, yet few European leaders want to address the issue. The reaction inside the Russian Federation has been a growing  anti-war movement. Germany, France, and the UK ignore these protests and instead demonize the Russian population. Russia at the start of the invasion did not use their full military capability. Now there is a desire to do so. The only way for the conflict to end is to make Ukraine neutral and halt NATO expansion in Eastern Europe. Russia can easily halt all energy sales to Europe in response to arming Ukraine. Germany, France, and the UK are facing an energy crisis . Without gas and oil  the European economy is in peril. The weapons and money being shipped are not fully accounted for. Allegations have been made a majority of the weapons Ukraine requested have not reached them. The invasion was at first not about conquest. It was to aid the militias in the east. That might change if further escalation continues. The only way Russia could lose is if every NATO county attacked with the United States. These actions could trigger a nuclear exchange. A direct conflict between the United States and Russia would result in nuclear war. Russian mobilization does not mean the country is struggling. Russia is pushing to end the conflict in a few months. The intent of  NATO is to extend the conflict for several years to weaken Russia. This cannot happen if the Ukrainian military cannot defend against more forces entering its territory. The mobilization phase shows that the Russia-Ukraine war is going to get more violent.  

The Darya Dugina Assassination

 

Journalist Darya Dugina was assassinated under mysterious circumstances. A car bomb was detonated, but no group has claimed responsibility for the murder. The speculation was that some in Ukraine were the culprits. Other theories are that it was the Russian government itself. No evidence of this has been produced. The murder will surely have an impact on the Russia-Ukraine war. The official statements by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is that it was a Ukrainian plot. Natalia Vovk is a suspect in the murder. Ukraine continues to deny accusations that it planned an assassination. It is unclear if Darya was the actual target or Alexander Dugin. Darya was supportive of Russia's invasion, which would make her a target. Ukraine made the claim that the real culprits were Russian separatists groups. The FSB claims it was a conspiracy of the Azov Battalion. Darya Dugina was not a political figure and did not hold power in the United Russia Party. This was an attack of extremists on a journalist. Oddly, the media is not framing it in that way. The reason could be due to growing anti-Russian sentiment in the West. Journalists of all nations face the threat of violence or death.