The Russia-Ukraine Conflict And The Use of ATACMS

 

Ukraine has been supplied with MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems. Ukraine has attacked inside Russian territory and now it is being with more weapons. The use of ATACMS proves that the conflict in Eastern Europe is a proxy war between NATO and the Russian Federation. Ukraine's chances of winning the conflict have decreased. Recapturing the Donbas and Crimea are out of reach. The Biden administration supplying ATACMS is another escalation in the Russia-Ukraine War. The Russian Federation asserted the conflict was a special military operation, but it is apparent NATO wants to be aggressive with the Russian Federation. There is little hope that with an incoming Trump administration that a peace settlement will be obtained. The European Union is thus left to figure out how to manage an energy crisis and a new wave of Ukrainian refugees. President Biden's supply of ATACMS is an attempt to reverse Ukraine's military failures. The conditions have worsened with the US embassy being shut. The Russian Federation could retaliate with massive airstrikes. Some European leaders are realizing that arming Ukraine is causing more destabilization of Europe. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed he will not supply Taurus long range missiles to the conflict. This is not so much for peace, but due to the fact an election is approaching in Germany. Chancellor Scholz has spoken with President Vladimir Putin. This was the first time since December of 2022. There is no indication in the hour long phone call that a peace settlement was discussed. Germany might be more interested in continuing its economic partnership with the Russian Federation. The recent shipment of arms from the UK and US are not going to produce  the military defeat of the Russian Federation. It has been speculated that some want the war to continue for the sake of the arms industry. Lockheed Martin is that main producer of ATACMS. The Russia-Ukraine War provides a market for various weapons.  

Ibrahim Traore Praises The Russian Federation (2023)

 

Ibrahim Traore praised the Russian Federation. in 2023. During a speech at the Russia-Africa Summit he recognized that Russia and Burkina Faso have a common struggle. The West continues to promote neocolonialism in various parts of the world. Russia found itself in the same situation with NATO expansion during the 2000s. Russians and Africans gave their lives to stop fascism in Europe during World War II. After the war, the Soviet Union provided aid to national liberation movements. This was helpful in the fight against white minority ruled regimes in Southern Africa. Traore mentions this history of collaboration, which explains why more African countries have a more favorable view of Russia. Burkina Faso at one time had a revolutionary socialist leader Thomas Sankara. Ibrahim Traore almost seems like a 2020s version of  the former leader of Burkina Faso. Traore's laudation of the Russian Federation makes sense when viewed in a wider historical context. Burkina Faso and Russia are being brought closer together due to the poor diplomatic relations with France. 

Victoria Nuland Curses The European Union (2014)

 

Victoria Nuland one of America's prominent diplomats will be leaving her post. The circumstances are not clear, but it indicates that there is a problem with the direction of US foreign policy. Nuland worked under the Bush, Obama, and Biden administrations. Her goal was to get aggressive with the Russian Federation. The policy related to Ukraine was interference. Victoria Nuland back in 2014 cursed the European Union. The reason was that it was not following an anti-Russian policy. The United States under a neoconservative framework should have more influence in Europe. The European Union is viewed more like an obstacle to making the continent subordinate. Seeing as she was the US ambassador to NATO, Nuland wanted to see the military alliance expand. Ukraine was going to be a testing ground for further expansion. The phone call been the US ambassador and Nuland indicates an attempt to select Ukrainian leadership. Nuland is a reminder that no matter who is elected, the foreign policy mechanisms remain the same. Victoria Nuland leaves a legacy of destabilizing Eastern Europe.  

Alexei Navalny's Emergence And Anti-Immigrant Politics (2012)

 

Alexei Navalny emerged during the 2010s as a figure of political opposition to Vladimir Putin. The lawyer turned blogger became an activist fighting corruption related to the role of business in government. The press tried to present him as a hero fighting authoritarianism in the Russian government. Honest reporting revealed that Navalny had political views that expressed xenophobic sentiment and racism. Navalny showed disdain for migrants. Central Asians, Muslims for the Caucasus, and Georgians he expressed were causing problems for the Russian Federation. He stated that Central Asians were trafficking drugs into Russia. Far-right nationalism and racism have been on the rise in Russia. Alexei Navalny wanted to use this development to build a movement. This ultranationalist movement Alexei Navalny was intended to replace the prominence of the United Russia Party. The West had interest in Navalny as a means of undermining President Vladimir Putin. Navalny was not trying to eliminate corruption rather replace the established oligarchs. Alexei Navalny died in prison and some have rushed to the conclusion Vladimir Putin ordered his death. Accusations of poisoning have been made, but there is no toxicology report to confirm this. Navalny was arrested in 2021. The charges ranged from violating court parole, encouraging extremism, and embezzlement. It can not be said that he got a fair trail under the current political circumstances. The Russian Federation will be divided over Alexei Navalny as a public figure.    

The Russian Anti-War Protests

 

Since 2022 there have been anti-war protests in Russia. The protesters disagree with President Putin's invasion of Ukraine and NATO instigation. The press in the UK, US, France, and Germany does not acknowledge the anti-war movement in Russia. Anti-war activists globally have not made connections to organizations active in the Russian Federation. The reason other countries do not recognize the Russian anti-war movement is because it does not fit a certain narrative. The press and government of Europe and North America wants to present an image of a nefarious Russian Federation. Russophobia has become a normalized sentiment extending to a wider xenophobia. The language and paranoia of the Cold War has reemerged even though the Soviet Union no longer exists. Russian are seen as malevolent, rather than focusing on actions of the United Russia Party. The existence of anti-war activists in Russia dismantles the narrative of Russians unanimously supporting the government. The unusual aspect is that some would think that the EU would want to show support to the protest. The motivation would not be out of concern for the cause of peace, but rather to undermine President Vladimir Putin. Russian anti-war activists face imprisonment and are harassed by the government. The anti-war activists in other countries have shown limited support for those inside the Russian Federation. Suppression and lack of international solidarity will cause the anti-war movement in Russia to disappear. The estimate for the number of detained was 1,700 in 2022. The figures could be higher, but an official number has not been confirmed for 2023. The anti-war movement in Russia also has broken into factions divided on issues related to those who want President Putin to resign and support for opposition leader Alexei Navalny. 

More Countries Want To Join BRICS

 

BRICS might be getting more members. A total of 30 countries are attempting to be part of the economic alliance. The development represents that the Global South is becoming more united in relation to economic matters. The details of which countries will get membership have not been disclosed. Much of the information related to possible members was from South African BRICS ambassador Anil Sookal. The countries that want to be part of the alliance include Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Belarus, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Egypt, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, the UAE, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. The controversial additions would the Gulf monarchies and Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates tend to be in alignment with Europe and North America. Afghanistan remains under the control of the Taliban regime and tends to isolate itself from the wider world. Pakistan has serious tensions with India and Sudan has fallen into civil war. Countries that are unstable, have disputes with other members, or are too close to the West might bring complications to the economic alliance. The challenges could be negated by one currency among members and a series of diplomatic agreements. Many nations want to move away from the US dollar and challenge the US-EU led global economy. The addition of new members also the world is heading to a multipolar power system. At some point the world will not be influenced by a sole superpower. Developing countries could most likely benefit more from BRICS. The IMF and World Bank have failed to produced programs that create economic stability or industrialization. Leaders of BRICS will meet in Johannesburg , South Africa to discuss bring more countries into the alliance, trade, currency, and concerns related to the global economy.    

African Leaders Are Proposing A Peace Plan To The Russia-Ukraine War

 

African leaders have grown concerned about the war in Ukraine. Now, an effort is being made to formulate a plan for peace with South Africa taking leading the mission. African leaders will head to both Moscow and Kiev. President Cyril Ramaphosa has made phone calls to both President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky. There remains doubts about success. The attempt should be praised, considering the European Union has done little. The peace mission demonstrates that African nations are becoming more influential on the international stage. Zambia, the Republic of the Congo, Senegal, Uganda, and Egypt are expected to have their heads of state attend the peace mission. President Hakainde Hichilema ( Zambia ) ,  President Dennis Sassou Nguesso (the Republic of the Congo ), President Macky Sall ( Senegal) ,  President Yoweri Museveni (Uganda), and President  Abdel Fattah el-Sisi are expected to make their arguments for peace. Many attending are longtime leaders, with the exception of President Hichilema who has been head of state since 2021. Other African leaders cannot attend due to internal matters. Sudan and Ethiopia are dealing with both ethnic conflict and civil war. The DRC grapples with an insurgency. Having more countries in the delegation could be helpful. Ghana, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Angola, Zimbabwe, or Namibia could have joined the peace mission. The African peace mission should be deemed a positive development in European affairs. Peace will never come as long as NATO expands and the arms industry profits from the Russia-Ukraine War. The US, UK, France, and Germany want to see the conflict extended. South Africa was accused of sending weapons to Russia, but there remains to be evidence of such a transaction. It is clear that some European leaders want the peace mission to fail, for a number of reasons. Preserving the arms trade and dismantling Russia are objectives of those who want the war to escalate. What happens next depends on the terms prosed in a peace settlement.   

BRICS Is Developing A New Currency

 

BRICS has been planning on developing a new currency. This development indicates that the world might be shifting away from the US dollar. The motivations of some members of the emerging economies do vary. China seeks to be more competitive in the global market. Russia wants more economic connections in Asia and Africa seeing as relations in Europe are in decline. India wants to expand economic growth. Brazil has a desire to unlock more business opportunities. South Africa has been exploring ways to combat economic inequality. The motivations to move away from the US dollar differ among BRICS members. One currency among members of emergent economics could be useful. There markets would not be so dependent on the US or Europe. Tensions between members could cause such a project to be stalled. India and China have had border disputes. All members do not agree about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. If the currency is successful, questions remain about the chance of more countries becoming members. The global financial system is headed for a drastic change. Multipolarity will not just effect international affairs, but also the world economy. The name proposed for this new currency would be called the R5. Doing this could mean that sanctions could no longer harm Global South nations. It is not certain if the R5 would protect nations from a global financial collapse. The Global South appears to be asserting a type of economic independence. The measure of success depends on how economically secure citizens are and if the currency maintains a high value.  

Russia Intends To Place Tactical Nuclear Weapons In Belarus

 

The Russian Federation intends to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Building up the military strength of Belarus was one plan to counter NATO expansion. The option was available if or when Ukraine becomes part of the military alliance. The second option was to intervene in Ukraine's civil war and secure the Donbas. Now it appears that a hybrid of both plans will be used. Without the INF Treaty, nuclear weapons production will increase. Finland comes closer to NATO membership, Russia wants to counter the new members with Belarus. Eastern Europe is becoming more militarized. Tension and fear only creates a more unstable atmosphere. The proliferation of nuclear weapons next to a war zone could cause further escalation. Tactical nuclear weapons are short range and to not have the capability of obliterating entire cities. These types of nuclear weapons are not subject to the same treaties as strategic nuclear weapons. The United States also has tactical nuclear weapons present on the soil of its NATO allies. Knowing this the possibility of a nuclear war becomes more likely. This is the first time Russia has sought to deploy nuclear weapons outside its borders since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The decision might have been adopted in response to the ICC warrant for President Vladmir Putin and the continued shipment of arms from EU countries. Whatever the result will be, Eastern Europe has become a zone of proxy war. 

Fears Grow of Belarus Entering The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Belarus could play a military role in the Russia-Ukraine War. The annexations in the eastern section of Ukraine demonstrate that the Russian Federation could win the war. Sources have reported that military drills have increased in Belarus. President Alexander Lukashenko ordered Belarussian troops to deploy with Russia's forces along the Ukraine border. If Belarus is about to invade, Ukraine would have to fight in both the north and east. The response to Belarus has been the threat of sanctions. Belarus was a staging ground for Russian troops in the invasion. Belarus has not engaged in combat operations. If the war continues the country might be tempted to join. Ukraine cannot win on its own and at some stage will face partition. Belarus could be calculating which parts it would take from Ukraine. This is why a peace settlement must be reached before a larger onslaught. The attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines and Crimea indicate dramatic escalation of the conflict. Debate remains about how effective the Belarussian military would be in the war. Belarus has not been at war for 30 years. Strikes in the north of Ukraine could reduce strength of forces in the south and east. Belarus is not a NATO member, but Russia might believe in the distant future it could forced into that orbit. President Lukashenko is often presented as a puppet pressured  by the Russian Federation. If that were the case Belarus would have joined the fighting by now. Russia and Belarus are close allies, but it does not mean it does not mean the country will blindly follow. The Russian Federation has the option of building up Belarus as a counter to a NATO backed Ukraine. Belarus also acts as a buffer state against Poland and Lithuania. If Belarus enters the war, then the conflict could spread throughout Eastern Europe.   

Mikhail Gorbachev BBC Interview (2019)

 

Mikhail Gorbachev (1931-2022)  gave an interview to  the BBC in 2019. What was discussed were the tensions between teh Russian Federation and the West. Gorbachev cited nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction as creating causing more hostility between nations. The tension will always bet there if the US and Russia continue to expand their arsenals. What he also condemned was America's nuclear attack on Japan during World War II. To him, it was more about threatening other countries rather than a fast end to the war. Russians do not favor war nor are they seeking another large conflict. Mikhail Gorbachev as General Secretary found out that most of the Soviet citizens were more concerned about a confrontation with the United States compared to other problems. The tension between the EU and Russia now is not another Cold War. The world is falling into a network of proxy wars and a shift to multipolarity. The  choice not to intervene in Eastern Europe in 1989 was out concern for a mass conflict. Gorbachev reveals some were opposed to German reunification, even those who celebrated the fall of  the Berlin Wall. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was not supportive of German reunification. His thoughts on President Putin explain why he is popular among the Russian citizens. The turbulence of the 1990s created a desire for some order. Vladimir Putin is viewed as a stabilizing force. The price paid for that is a more authoritarian system  based around one individual. Gorbachev shows an astute understanding of Russian politics and foreign policy in the interview. The concerns mentioned should be taken seriously by every world leader. 

The Darya Dugina Assassination

 

Journalist Darya Dugina was assassinated under mysterious circumstances. A car bomb was detonated, but no group has claimed responsibility for the murder. The speculation was that some in Ukraine were the culprits. Other theories are that it was the Russian government itself. No evidence of this has been produced. The murder will surely have an impact on the Russia-Ukraine war. The official statements by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is that it was a Ukrainian plot. Natalia Vovk is a suspect in the murder. Ukraine continues to deny accusations that it planned an assassination. It is unclear if Darya was the actual target or Alexander Dugin. Darya was supportive of Russia's invasion, which would make her a target. Ukraine made the claim that the real culprits were Russian separatists groups. The FSB claims it was a conspiracy of the Azov Battalion. Darya Dugina was not a political figure and did not hold power in the United Russia Party. This was an attack of extremists on a journalist. Oddly, the media is not framing it in that way. The reason could be due to growing anti-Russian sentiment in the West. Journalists of all nations face the threat of violence or death. 

The Boris Johnson Set To Resign

 

Boris Johnson will be stepping down as Conservative Party leader. Prime Minister Johnson will also be resigning from office when a successor is found. A number of grievances  were growing in the UK, which resulted in cabinet resignations. The handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns put much strain on the population. The sanctions on Russia, which caused more economic concerns for Europe added to the stress. The long process of Brexit and leaving the EU also caused complications. All these challenges, scandals,  and a more unstable Europe caused the fall of Johnson's government. While the British public was in lockdown, it was discovered that Prime Minister Johnson was attending parties. Partygate as it is known colloquially caused much anger, but that was not the only reason. Rising food and fuel prices in the UK are linked to the sanctions imposed on Russia. The British public is not willing to finance a proxy war in Ukraine. The Conservative Party gradually turned on Boris Johnson realizing the problems with his leadership. All the scandals began to be exposed, but this does not mean he is leaving office immediately. Johnson will remain at his post till at least October. That means he can still influence policies of government. A wave off conservative nationalist populism has swept across Europe and it enables corrupt governments to be elected. The consequences can  last far beyond a leaders service in office. The Conservative Party despite the mass resignations and scandals holds significant power. The UK over the next few years will face challenges to political and economic structure.  

Finland And Sweden Are Seeking NATO Membership

 

Finland and Sweden are seeking to be members of NATO. There reasons are based on the events surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If NATO expansion was one of the reasons for the outbreak of war, this only increases chances of a larger European conflict. NATO's purpose was for defense against the Soviet Union. Since 1997, more countries have been added to the alliance, even though the Soviet Union no longer existed. Expansion indirectly implies in the future NATO will one day seek a war with the Russian Federation. Finland joining NATO  is more surprising. Finland was able to win a war against the Soviet Union. The Russo-Finnish War (1939-1940)  resulted in Russian defeat. During World War II Finland fought with Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union in the War of Continuation (1941-1944). Finland then made a separate peace and fought against Germany. Finland and Russia eventually signed a peace treaty in 1947. The two countries continued to have good relations. There is no reason to assume that Finland cannot defend itself. Sweden through most of the 20th century to early 2lst century has been a neutral European nation. The nation has valued diplomacy, rather than armed conflict. Turkey has objected to adding these two countries to NATO. Europe is becoming more militarized, which will cause instability. Russia has condemned the actions of Finland and Sweden, but has limited options. Attacking the Nordic countries would complicate matters. The only solution would be to arm Belarus as a counter to new NATO members. This enables President Alexander Lukashenko to become more important to Russia. Europe might become a larger warzone beyond Ukraine, if NATO keeps expanding.  Strategic  diplomacy is needed to prevent further escalation. 

Russia Wants Gas And Oil To Be Paid In Rubles

 

Russia  had sanctions placed on it for the invasion of Ukraine. The response has been to have nations it considers unfriendly to pay for gas and oil in rubles. This is designed to counter the effects of sanctions. The problem for EU states is that a majority of gas is purchased from Russia. The US intends to sell more liquified gas to Europe. Both the US and Russia were competing for the European energy market. The sanctions on Russia have caused some harm to the countries that have supported them. Gas prices have increased putting strain on the average citizen. All countries are not willing to sanction Russia. India, China, South Africa, and the Central Asian countries have not imposed sanctions. The sanctions will harm the Russian population, rather than the leadership. The EU might not have their energy needs met. The conflict in Ukraine has a dimension of economic warfare. Part of the reason for the conflict is to exploit Ukraine's gas reserves. The ruble is losing value, but the dollar could gradually lose influence. Economic warfare between the EU-US block and Russia could destabilize world markets.   

Russia Today Gets Banned In The EU and RT America Shuts Down

 

The Russian state owned international news network is being banned in the European Union. RT America has shut down after ten years in operation. The American staff was dismissed and programs cancelled. The claim is that RT was being used as a platform for spreading disinformation. The motivation behind this ban is due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The channel does provide a Russian perspective, but is also critical of EU and US foreign policy. The channel has produced documentaries regrading the Iraq War and The Afghan War. The ban on media based on its country of origin is more like xenophobia rather than a concern about disinformation. This goes against the values of press freedom and free speech. Viewers should have the right to access multiple sources of information no matter which country it originates from. The purpose of fact checkers is to expose false information. Prohibiting RT is more of a political gesture to express anger with the Russian Federation. Censorship is a threat to free press and this will reverberate. BBC and Voice of America are restricted in Russia. These were steps in retaliation for the RT restrictions .   Disinformation is being used as an excuse for censorship. Ultimately, the consumers of news around the world are put at a disadvantage. With few sources of information,  it becomes difficult to make sense of  of world events. RT still remains on  Facebook and Youtube. 

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict , NATO Expansion, and The European Union

 Conflict has broken out between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine has been in a state of civil war ever since 2014. The overthrow of the Viktor Yanukoych presidency caused certain provinces to seek independence. Ukraine is divided between east and west. The western section of the country favors the European Union and NATO. The eastern section of the country is in alignment with the Russian  Federation. The Donbass region has a large number of ethnic Russians. This part of Ukraine has been attempting to break away. Both Donetsk and Luhansk  were recognized as independent countries by Russia. This sparked outrage from the US, France, and the UK. The root of the conflict goes back further than the West aiding the removal of the Yanukoych presidency. An agreement was made between Russia and NATO that the military alliance would not expand. NATO has been getting closer to Russian borders over the past two decades. Although NATO was meant to be an defensive military alliance it has been involved in the former Yugoslavia, Libya, and Afghanistan. Some analysts have questioned why this alliance remains even when the Cold War is over. There are economic and political reasons that NATO remains. Eastern Europe is a lucrative market for arms manufacturers. The European Union has a vision of a politically integrated  Europe, regardless of what individual European states want. An east and west divide still stops this design for supranationalism from happening. Russia want to have influence in eastern Europe. To counter this NATO added more countries to the alliance. Ukraine is now caught in a state of civil war and being partition between two world powers. The United States and Russia are challenging one another for control of Ukraine.  Reckless action has made the situation escalate into a new conflict. Observers have called this a Russian invasion, but it is a country intervening in a civil war. Russians were assisting militias and armed groups prior to 2022. The risk is that a European conflict could spread throughout the continent and the world. 

         The Russia-Ukraine conflict origins go back eight  years ago.  The Russian involvement in Ukraine started with the annexation of Crimea. This was done in a  less violent manner, by means of a referendum. The majority of the population is Russian so the results worked in Russia favor. This was the Russian Federation's response to the removal of Vikor Yanukoych. Seeing as a legitimate government was deposed, some chose to take up arms against the new administration. Protests had gripped the country with debates about trade deals with the EU. The Association Agreement was thus rejected. Yanukoych favored Russia, which was why his presidency was targeted by other European powers. Soon armed factions began emerging. Ethnic Russians in the east began fighting the Ukrainians in the west. President Vladimir Putin began aiding rebels groups in the Donbas. Those in the east feared the Maidan revolution . Ukraine if it got closer to the EU could harm their financial situation, considering the area had significant economic ties to Russia. This caused tensions to build between Kyiv and Moscow. The United States was also arming Ukraine against the rebels. The country had become a battleground for a war of proxy between two world powers. Among the armed groups extremist elements were emerging.  The Azov Battalion has been identified as a neo-Nazi organization which has been involved in combat. Ukraine slipped into civil war, which was a justification made by more powerful countries to intervene. President Petro Poroshenko was not willing to negotiate a peace with the Donbas.   

The causalities were increasing and it appeared that neither of the waring parties were closer to victory. A peace settlement was needed to prevent Ukraine from breaking in two. The Minsk agreements were designed to end the civil war in Ukraine. The Minsk II in 2015 was a cease-fire more so than a peace treaty. Under a Poroshenko presidency, peace may not have been possible. This was due to his suspicion  of Russia. The EU and US favored him over the newly elected president Volodymr Zelensky. The comedian was not expected to win, but the public wanted someone different. President Zelensky was more open to talks compared to his predecessor. The obstacles that prevented this were related to the Ukraine's possible entry into NATO and establishment of weapons systems. Russia had concerns about its borders. NATO was expanding breaking a promise not to do so. Only Belarus and Moldova are not a part of the NATO alliance on Russia's border . Sweden and Finland are not a part of the alliance. These countries tend to be neutral in foreign affairs. The reaction to NATO expansion was to recognize Donetsk and  Luhansk. From these areas a full scale invasion was launched. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict took a dramatic turn. Russia was doing a large scale military intervention. Russia is now fighting militias and the Ukrainian military. Belarus could become involved considering Russia is its close ally. Hungary is one of the few NATO members more sympathetic to Russia. The conflict if protracted might spread into neighboring states. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict started from regime change and   transforming into a civil war . The evolution to a war of proxy made it another location of US-Russia contention. The Russian Federation then chose to escalate military operations. 

         The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was founded in 1949 as a defensive alliance against the Soviet Union. At the time, it was the Cold War and both the superpowers were struggling for geopolitical domination of the globe. Overtime, the Soviet Union could not compete economically. The Soviet system reached a point of stagnation. Pressures from the war in Afghanistan and new reforms brought about its collapse. The Soviet Union cease to exist in 1991. However, since 1992 NATO has been expanding. The pace of it increased in the 2000s. The Russian Federation is not as powerful as the Soviet Union was or the Russian Empire. NATO's role and purpose has been changed. The military alliance is designed to inflict violence against countries who resist the West. Under the cover of humanitarian intervention, countries that are not even in Europe have been attacked by NATO. There are cases in which NATO tries to change the map. Kosovo would not exist as an independent state without NATO's involvement in the break up of Yugoslavia. NATO's role is not defensive, but to use preemptive strike. The Association Agreement would have been the pathway to moving Ukraine into NATO membership. This created a paranoia in Russian political circles of a future invasion by NATO.  Russia has been invaded by France under Napoleon  ,  Germany under Wilhelm II, and then Adolf Hitler. Russia's paranoia does have some historical foundation. The fear of possible invasion was the reason for Soviet occupation of  eastern Europe. When the Cold War was over, Russia and the West realized a new framework was needed. The Founding Act was an agreement made between NATO and the Russian Federation. It called for cooperation and mutual understanding on security matters. This was introduced in 1997. The promise that NATO would not expand was not kept. The concern is that the members of the alliance will one day be involved in a war against Russia. Belarus, Sweden, Finland, and Moldova are not a part of NATO. Sweden has been neutral in terms of foreign policy. Finland might join in response to events in Ukraine. Belarus is aligned with Russia and Moldova tends to favor appears to favor a western orientation. President Maria Sandu has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. President Alexander Lukashenko supports Russian efforts, but indicates it wants to hold talks between Ukraine and Russia. Hungarian Prime Minster Viktor Orban has expressed his frustration with Russian military strikes in Ukraine. President Milos Zeman of the Czech Republic has also condemned  the war in Ukraine. Hungary and the Czech Republic were advocates for Russia in NATO. Diplomatic relations could end if the war continues. NATO will only justify its expansion and use the conflict to promote its agenda. Russia invaded thinking it would deter expansion, yet it only makes it inevitable. 

       The European Union has a political vision for the entire continent. The desire to promote certain values such as liberal democratic systems, free movement among borders, and the euro are objectives. Members have to adhere to certain stipulations. This comes at the cost of elements of national sovereignty. The European Union cannot have a competing economic and political rival. This is why the UK's exit from the EU was met with contention. Russia poses a political and economic challenge. Russia provides energy to Europe. Germany and Italy are dependent on Russian gas. The United States does not approve of Europe buying Russian gas. The desire is to have European countries make purchases from the United States. Disputes have emerged from economic competition. Russia was close to making Nord Stream 2 pipeline a lucrative business transaction. The business agreement with Germany was objected to by both the Trump and Biden administrations. The invasion of Ukraine has suspended operation. The source of conflict in Europe is related to fossil fuels and energy. The investment in renewable energy can help prevent future conflicts. Europe getting energy independence would be beneficial economically. Both Russia and the United States have leverage on Europe which can be used at anytime. Russia could have used natural gas as leverage to settle the Ukraine dispute. The problem is that Russia would lose access to buyers. More sanctions have been put on Russia as a means of opposing the invasion. The consequences of this are higher gas prices in Europe and the US. Ultimately sanctions  will harm the average citizen in America, Russia, and the rest of Europe. The Ukraine -Russia conflict will not just impact Europe, but the global economy. Stock markets react to world events. Cutting off Russia from the global economy could impact African and Asian nations that do business with  the country. Supply chain issues, inflation, and the pandemic only add to the strain on the global economy. Energy related confrontation only exacerbates a dire situation. Another dimension to the economics of the region is the arms trade. Eastern Europe has been a buyer of American weapons. Tanks, aircraft, and missiles  have been sold to eastern European countries. The United States was arming Ukraine during its civil war. This partnership will continue. A large part of the US economy rests on arms production. If the West and Russia came to a consensus, this would disrupt the arms trade. NATO countries would not buy American weapons if there was no concept of a Russian threat. Russian integration economically into Europe would challenge American influence. The European Union would never accept Russia, because it is too economically independent. Although EU countries and Russia are capitalist systems, a rivalry exists for influence in the global economy. 

       A power struggle has broken out between two versions of neo-colonial imperialism. There is the NATO-US block which wanted to mold Ukraine into another EU type of state. Russia seeks to pull Ukraine into its sphere of influence. The country was a part of the Soviet Union. Formerly colonized states struggle to break free of their mother country. African and Asian countries had this problem in the 1960s and 1970s. Ukraine has been caught in a contest of world power competition. Pressure from Russia or the United States undermines Ukraine's sovereignty. The UK and France have intervened in formerly colonized countries. Russia has replicated this model with Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has dissolved the myth of an international rules based order. It was slowly in decline with the Iraq War. The West and  the United States wanted to present itself as a defender of human rights and democracy. When economics or  the quest for national power are factors these values are discarded. The attempt to transform Ukraine into an NATO state resulted in provocation for Russia. The extreme response  was launching an aggressive war that appears to be one of conquest. Efforts are still being made to establish a peace settlement. There is refusal to facilitate  this by the EU countries. Belarus has offered to provide a platform for Russian and Ukrainian delegations. President Volodymyr  Zelensky  has indicated he would rather have peace. Russia has not fully taken over the country. Fighting continues in major cities, which suggest the Ukrainian military  is much stronger than thought. Military aid from the UK, Germany, US, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. Peace talks will not be successful under sanctions targeting Russian companies and banks. The Biden administration was not receptive to negotiations related to NATO expansion. Since the Obama administration US-Russian relations rapidly declined. The struggle to make Ukraine under control of either the US or Russia caused the 2022 conflict. Russia prior to this was engaging in military action in Georgia. The Russo-Georgian War in 2008 followed a similar narrative as Ukraine. Russian recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This resulted in war, which Russia won. However, Georgia was not absorbed into the Russian Federation. Ukraine may not be fully conquered, but the Donbas might become part of the Russian Federation. Russia is using irredentism and NATO expansion as an excuse to wage war in Ukraine. The US and EU countries make the justification for war as being a humanitarian mission. Ukraine can be free if it rejects both power blocks. When Ukraine gains a status of neutrality it will not be part of large scale geopolitical power struggles.   

Unrest in Kazakhstan

 

Protests broke out across Kazakhstan. This was in response to fuel price increases. There are other grievances that have been articulated. Frustration with the government has grown over the years. The protest caused a large number of cabinet resignations and a state of emergency to be declared. The removal of price controls on liquefied petroleum gas. It has been reported that former President Nursultan Nazarbayev will no longer be on the Security Council. This was expressed as one of the complaints coming from demonstrators in the cities. There is a feeling that Nazarbayev still holds political influence even though he resigned in 2019. This is the first real challenge to current President Kassym-Jomart  Tokayev. The fear of the leaders of the Kazakhstan is the people are going to demand more freedoms and a limit on the powers of the presidency. President Tokayev has asked for military assistance from Russia, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan. While there has been violence, little evidence exists that external actors are active in sabotage . The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) might intervene to prevent a Central Asian spring. Kazakhstan has only had two presidents since becoming an independent nation in 1991. The demand for a new system of governance could be evolving.  

Protests Sparked Over The Presidential Election in Belarus

 

Belarus held its presidential elections on Sunday. The results announced that longtime incumbent Alexander Lukashenko won the election with 80% of the vote. The issue which opposition leaders have raised is that the elections were not free or fair. Protests have broken out in various cities across the European nation. Russia's response was to congratulate President Lukashenko's election victory. Germany has been skeptical of the political situation in the country. As demonstrations continue to grow, this will most likely attract foreign powers. the opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikanouskaya has attracted more support. There are fears Belarus could follow a path similar to Ukraine. An internal crisis can be used as an excuse for intervention by the EU. There is no indication that the opposition is being controlled by foreign powers for the sake of regime change. Belarus could be entering another political phase and the citizens may  desire large scale change. Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and has faced little  formidable opposition. Sviatlana Tsikanouskaya has ran as an independent building a coalition across the political spectrum. The challenge is keeping such an alliance unified. Being against the government or current  administration is not enough to ensure a  promising future. Repression has gotten worse with journalists and opposition leaders put under arrest. Belarus faces a crisis that consists of  authoritarian government, political oppression, threat of  geopolitical maneuvering between Russia and the EU.   

Russia Has Been Accused of Aiding Armed Groups in Afghanistan

The Russian Federation has been accused of arming militants in Afghanistan. This is according to US intelligence. The accusation goes even further to say that Russia placed bounties on US forces. There remains some reason to be skeptical of such claims. Incorrect or fabricated intelligence was used as a justification for the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The US has been occupying Afghanistan since 2001 and wants to remain indefinitely. The country holds too many resources and geopolitical importance to leave. There needs to be a real or imagined threat to keep an endless war going. Russia has been made to be a scapegoat form American domestic and international problems. The analysis fails to realize that the majority of Afghans are vexed at US occupation and the Asharf Ghani government. More sanctions are planned on the Russian Federation. The timing comes during an election year, which also raises further questions. Xenophobia will obviously directed at Russia and China will be a tool in the 2020 US presidential election. The Afghan War  has been one of America's longest conflicts with no end in sight. There is a possibility that Russia could be doing this in response to NATO build-up in Eastern Europe and the Baltic. The US aided mujahideen in the 1980s during the Soviet-Afghan War. The perilous actions of aiding terrorist organizations or armed groups can result in blowback. Afghanistan is trapped in game of chess between two major world powers.