European Union Increases Sanctions On Russia

 

The European Union has placed more sanctions on the Russian Federation. Sanctions have not ended the Russia-Ukraine War. These sanctions are ineffective and are having negative economic effects on EU countries. The increase in fuel prices harms businesses and consumers in Europe. The majority of African and Asian nations are not placing sanctions on the Russian Federation. The reason is due to the fact Russia has better relations with the Global South. Ukraine's war effort is taking a turn for the worst. The exchange of drone warfare and missiles has added to the brutality of the war. Ukraine has hit Moscow with long range missiles and did an incursion into Kursk. At some point, the Ukrainian military will collapse. The conflict is a war of attrition and a proxy operation under the supervision of NATO. Eastern Europe is not only being militarized, but the entire EU. Sanctions only hinder efforts at diplomatic resolution. President of the European Commission Ursula Von Der Leyen proposed  a 131 billion euro defense budget. This is going to paid for by taxing the citizens of the European Union countries. The United Kingdom hold the position of keeping the conflict going. The US has not produced a peace settlement and the majority of talks end in failure. The Istanbul talks are not going to end the conflict as long as sanctions are imposed on Russian energy. Now that President Zelensky is facing internal protests, his political future is uncertain. Protesters were voicing their grievances about government corruption. Even if the war ends the internal situation in Ukraine will be unstable. The EU would probably support an authoritarian Zelensky dictatorship for the sake of undermining the Russian Federation. Belarus could in the future subject to even more sanctions to harm a Russian ally.     

A Decade of International Affairs, Change, and Global Confrontation

 The world has drastically changed in a decade. International power  dynamics are shifting due to economic and geopolitical factors. The 21st century is going to be more turbulent due to these changes. Warfare, poverty, and intense racial hatreds have not disappeared with advancement of civilization. The international liberal order is being rejected. The nations of the Global South have become more frustrated living in a world that takes dictates from the European Union, United States, and western elites from the World Economic Forum. Globalism implies a world of cooperation, peace, and a community of nations. The ideology and term is a misnomer.  Globalism used in modern context is furtively promoting neocolonial imperialism. Western values, culture, and liberal democratic systems are imposed on particular nations. To gain public support, wars are framed as humanitarian intervention or protection of democracy. The world of the 2010s and 2020s was predicted back in the late 20th century. The power void left by the fall of the Soviet Union allowed for abuse by the world's sole superpower. The assumption was that the world would become more peaceful after the Cold War. The United States did not end its military interventions or decrease defense spending. NATO expanded in Europe and engaged in operations outside the continent. Afghanistan and Libya were targets. The response to aggression across international borders came from a more powerful China and a Russian Federation recovering from economic challenges of the 1990s. International affairs is undergoing a more pugnacious transformation. Warfare is now being promoted as a humanitarian quest to stop authoritarian leaders and states. Multipolarity is going to be a part of world politics. The United States, France, UK, and Germany are not accepting of this change. Intolerance, a limited worldview, and closed minded perceptions become fuel for global confrontation. 

         The expansion of war zones has increased. Previous areas are either stuck in a status of failed state or long term insurgency. The Democratic Republic of the Congo's second civil war ended in 2003. By the 2010s the M23 rebels emerged with Rwandan backing. The ethnic tension between Hutus and Tutsis did not dissipate. The Libyan Civil War in 2011  created a failed state similar to Somalia in North Africa. The aftermath was mass refugee migration that continues to be a challenge for Europe. Eastern Europe became a warzone, when the legitimate government of Ukraine was deposed in 2014. Ukraine became a area of proxy war between the United States of America and the Russian Federation. Long term conflicts continued, but took on a larger international scale. The tension between India and Pakistan became intertwined with the Afghan War. Pakistan has supported factions of the Taliban, while fighting other armed groups. Kashmir remains a disputed territory among the two Asian countries. China tends to favor Pakistan over India in terms of  its foreign policy. What makes this more precarious was President Barack Obama's pivot to Asia. The more confrontational approach to China was a neoconservative vision of eliminating it as a world power. Taiwan from 2012  onwards was given more focus and military aid. A movement is underway in some foreign policy circles to abandon the one China policy. Part of this involves instigating conflict in the region. President Hu Jintao expanded China's international relations in various parts of Africa. His successor Xi Jingping  continues to establish stronger diplomatic ties to Global South nations. The 2002 to 2012 era of China's new phase of international relations caused a reaction from the United States and European Union countries. The attitude is hostile to the extent of moving to abandon the one China policy. Taiwan will be given more arms, even though it is a part of China. North Korea is a target for a future war with the US and South Korea doing joint military drills. The introduction of the pivot to Asia and the Indo-Pacific strategy has created conditions for an Asia-Pacific war. NATO is becoming a fighting force designed to impose a neocolonial status quo. Internal challenges invite interference. Mali Sudan, and Ethiopia are struggling with civil wars and armed groups. 

      Confrontation between nations does not cease. Mali since 2012 has been fighting a long term insurgency. The aftermath of the Libyan Civil resulted in arms and soldiers coming into Mali. The National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad seeks an independent state for the Tuareg people. Sudan ended its second civil war by accepting the independence of South Sudan. The new nation came into existence in 2011. South Sudan descended into civil war in 2013. The ethnic violence between Neur and Dinka has been present since South Sudan's independence. Omar Al-Bashir ruled Sudan since 1989, but was deposed by coup. After a number of rotating heads of state, another military ruler came to power. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan was made head of state by the Transitional Sovereignty Council. The former members of the Janjaweed militia forces joined in a revolt led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. The Rapid Support Forces have since 2023 attempting to overthrow the government. Ethiopia has another issue similar with the conflict with the Tigray People's Liberation Front. The Tigray War lasted from 2020 to 2022. A consistent pattern can be seen with all of these countries during the 2010s to 2020s. States are experiencing balkanization and consequences of past colonialism. The majority of borders in Africa and Asia were formed by former imperial powers. Syria's destruction was simple, because it was the product of the mandate system after World War I. Iraq , Lebanon, and Jordan have the same concerns with borders. The invasion of Iraq in 2003 enabled terrorist organizations to have a greater foothold in West Asia. ISIS emerged in both Iraq and Syria. The US, UK, and France assisted terrorist organizations for the purpose of removing the Bashar Al-Assad government. The Syrian Civil War became a proxy conflict between the US and Russia. Only when Russia intervened on Syria behalf in 2015 did it prevent another regime change. The Syrian army could  not defeat Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. HTS took over the government installing Ahmed al-Sharaa. HTS is a terrorist organization and it now governs a state. Baathism became a political force in 1968. The US occupation of Iraq ended that branch. The removal of the Assad government in 2024 made the ideology extinct. Wars have increased in number with rivalries from the 20th century continuing, 

       The world economy continues to be dominated by neoliberal capitalism. After the 2008 global financial crisis, the hope was for serious change. Instead , bailouts and the protection of corporate power went unchallenged. Transnational corporations during the 2000s gained more power than governments. The liberal democracies accepted this development, because certain companies provide campaign contributions to politicians. Poverty has increased, with people who were at one stage middle class falling into socioeconomic hardship. Privatization, structural adjustment programs, and outsourcing had devasting consequences. The private sector cannot meet all the needs of a country. This enabled corporations to do business in various areas, which reduced the quality of public services. Private equity firms continue to buy housing and hospitals. To reduce costs beds in hospitals are reduced. Apartment complexes have spikes in rent. Deregulation related to banking only exacerbates the problem. The 2008 financial crash was induced by subprime mortgage loans. The World Bank and International Monetary Fund  keep developing nations in a state of dependency through loans. African, Asian, and South American nations are forced onto structural adjustment programs. This meant reducing tariffs, cutting spending on social services, and privatizing various public sectors. The world under neoliberal capitalism and an international free market changed the nature of employment. Workers are not only competing for jobs in their own nation, but internationally. Outsourcing accelerated with many manufacturing jobs going to Global South nations. Low skilled and semi-skilled professions were the first jobs to disappear in the developed nations. White collar professions were not protected  either. Globalization describes all the policies and events effecting the world economy. The reduction of trade barriers and promotion of free markets has not increased the wealth of workers world wide. Nations that obtained their independence in the 20th century are still seeking economic security and development. The standard of living has declined in the UK and US. The European debt crisis contributed to this in EU countries. Workers  have seen their incomes and standard of living decline. A growing number of workers are falling into poverty. A middle class could vanish  from various nations. Neoliberal capitalism is not preserving the world economy, but making it more erratic. 

         Globalism became a  force in international affairs. Although it is presented as a model for a unified and peaceful world the ideology masks neocolonial imperialism. Globalism is not about cooperation of nations, but a world under permanent leadership of the West. Not only does it demand the exploitation of the Global South, but to adhere to the culture of Europe and North America. Supranational organizations either want to reduce or eliminate national sovereignty. The United Nations was not for the purpose of undermining countries. The international body was designed to facilitate dialogue among nations and peaceful solutions to disputes. Instead, the UN remains dominated by large powers. It was the United States and the Soviet Union that were the dominant powers in the United Nations. Global power shifted in the direction of the US after 1991.Simultaneously, European integration accelerated. The European Union was established in 1993 from the agreements articulated  in the Maastricht Treaty. This took advantage of the Eastern European nations, which were in dire economic condition. More countries of the former Soviet Union were joining the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The problem with this plan for European integration was the Russian Federation. During the Boris Yeltsin presidency Russia was suffering from the aftermath of the Soviet collapse and economy shock therapy. When Vladimir Putin became president in 2000, the Russian Federation was going in another direction. While Yeltsin was more oriented to the West, Putin's focus was on Africa, Asia, and Latin America. At one stage President Vladimir Putin contemplated joining NATO and being a partner with Western Europe. These policies would have never been accepted by the European Union or NATO. Russia cannot amalgamate into a globalist structure, because of its independence. Since 2008, Russia's policy is to influential in international affairs. Globalism wants all nations to adhere to one world system under one culture, liberal democratic systems, and capitalist economies. Globalism insists there is an international community in which all nations are subject to the same laws. The most powerful countries violate international law and are never punished. Their allies and collaborators are also exempted. Israel, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey never face any sort of punishments for human rights violations. Although globalism can have multiple meanings in academic circles, supranational institutions and other organizations have a specific ideology. The World Economic Forum, European Union, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank want an imposed global order. Countries that resist globalism, are going to face hostility.  

      Major changes to global society were induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid technological advancement, and  growing distrust in establishment institutions. The worst public health crisis since the influenza pandemic in 1918 caused massive damage. Part of the harm was exacerbated by inadequate public health policy. Lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and other restrictions created concerns even when the pandemic was over. Lockdowns between those years of 2020 to 2022  caused businesses to close and unemployment to increase. Instead of using quarantines effectively, lockdowns were utilized to greater extent. Workers were not only harmed, but children. Across the world students experienced learning loss from schools being closed. Trepidation and panic took over than rational public health measures. Personal protective equipment, masks, and social distancing should have emphasized more than the use of lockdowns. Sweden, Uruguay, Iceland, and Taiwan did not do lockdowns. Their deaths were not as high as countries in Europe and North America. Travel restrictions brought a decline in tourism and the airline industry. Even when people did not travel, stay at home orders prevented social interaction. Isolation and mental health decline was effecting many individuals. The pandemic caused economic damage, but caused a change in the nature of interpersonal relations. People became more suspicious of one another. Workers revolted in another way. Many left the workforce in the 2020s. Low wages and combined with the daily challenges forced workers to leave companies. The nature of employment changed from the pandemic. More were willing to work form home and champion a four day work week. The relation between employer and employee became more contentious. Technology has become a greater part of over lives. Video sharing, social media, and artificial intelligence rapidly expanded. Technology has made it easier to access information. Youtube, Twitter, and Google have an international reach. False claims and fake news can be spread from any medium. Newspapers and broadcast news did this with little complaint. Governments assert they want to fight disinformation. The true intent is to make censorship acceptable. Social media companies and other silicon valley corporations  took measures to ensure accountability to avoid government regulation. Facebook, Twitter, and Google made adjustments, but it showed a bias. Fact checking and bans were applied to certain individuals, not all users. The realization has come that the internet is too vast and ubiquitous to be censored. The internet is not the same as it was in the 2010s. The medium is constantly evolving and the way users interacts with it does as well. Artificial intelligence generates feelings of anxiousness and wonder. AI could make a large portion of jobs obsolete. If applied in a responsible way it could be beneficial. Using AI for warfare, medical assessment, or stock market management would be dangerous. As information and knowledge becomes more available, the public begins to question more. The establishment continues to lose trust and credibility. Lies about war, the economy, pandemic, and international affairs eroded public support for various institutions. Government, media, and medicine have lost trust from the public between the years of 2003 and 2024. Professionals and experts of the establishment were more interested in supporting a narrative, rather than the truth. The aftermath of this was that the public turns to fringe movements or xenophobic nativist nationalism.  

          As each decade passes, the risk grows of a massive global confrontation grows. Observers of foreign affairs claim that to a degree this has started. The United States and the Russian Federation are waging a war of proxy in Ukraine. Israel is at war with the Houthi in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and invading Syrian territory. An Israel-Iran War becomes a greater possibility, as the country seizes more land .  The third Sudanese Civil War and the M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of the Congo could destabilize the African continent. Terrorist organizations and armed groups still are threats to the Sahel. Tensions between India and Pakistan could result in another long term conflict. War zones are expanding on Africa, Asia, and Europe. If the US, Russia, China, and the EU countries were to fight one another this would be a third World War. All these conflicts that are ongoing and the United Nations has been ineffective. If a third World War were to breakout, the United Nations would cease to exist. The institution designed to prevent mass global conflict is failing. At times the United Nations was a culprit in aggression. Libya and Haiti have been abused by the United Nations. The challenge in international affairs in the 21st century is containing war and using diplomacy. The unfortunate aspect is that diplomacy is not being employed to disputes. Destabilization, violence, and economic warfare is being used to attack multiple countries. African, Asian, and South American nations are the victims of this. The blowback is mass migration, which pushes western countries closer to the far-right. The  refugees since 2011 continue grow. Unable to find a solution, European leaders either use it to their political advantage or ignore the issue. The shift in demographics is going to cause internal difficulties for the EU. The majority of the world's nation-states are seeking cohesion within their borders. Control of borders is slowly dissipating in a globalized neoliberal capitalist economy. The flow of people, commodities, and information is going to be too much to manage. The rise of BRICS symbolizes a world of multipolarity. France, Germany, the UK, and the US will not accept this development. The United States was the sole superpower and decided to abuse its power. The violence accelerated in 2001, after the 9/11. The War on Terror was abandoned and shifted to a new existential threat of the Russia-China alliance. The desire to maintain a neocolonial structure creates conflict and undermines a stable peace. When powers decline and new ones emerge, a war tends to determine the world order. There is a need to break this cycle in international affairs. The abandonment of diplomacy in favor of war and intrigue demonstrates the desperation to maintain an unequal hierarchy of nations. The decade has been turbulent, erratic, and uncertain.          

Ukraine Seeks Diplomatic Ties With South Africa

President Volodymyr Zelensky came to South Africa to strengthen diplomatic ties. The conversations with South African Cyril Ramaphosa ranged from trade and the situation in Eastern  Europe. The trip was cut short by news of bombings of the Ukrainian  capital of  Kyiv. The visit was really not about bilateral relations. It was President Zelensky's attempt to undermine Russia's diplomatic status with South Africa. The BRICS members do not favor sanctions  on Russia or the growing anti-Russian sentiment within the European Union. Attempts have been made for peace settlements or possible ceasefire. All have been rejected. South Africa hosting the Ukrainian president seems odd considering the past treatment of Africans residing in Ukraine. African students faced discriminatory treatment when fleeing Ukraine in 2022. Africans in Ukraine constantly face forms of prejudice and discrimination. Ukrainian forces are active in parts of Africa according to some reports. Ukraine has sent special forces to Sudan and Mali. The reason Ukraine did this was to undermine the Wagner Group and Russia diplomatic missions in Africa. These instances of interference demonstrate that Ukraine is not an ally of African nations. The 2023 African Union peace delegation to Ukraine was rebuffed and subject to harsh treatment. President Zelensky was demanding that European countries continue to support the war effort. Seeing as arms  are  dissipating Ukraine is looking elsewhere. South Africa is under no obligation to help Ukraine or any other European state. After the 2023 AU peace deal proposal, it is obvious Ukraine does not value African council. The Russia-Ukraine War does work to the benefit of Africa. If the European Union keeps funding the conflict it will weaken the UK, France, and Germany. This means Europe will no longer be able to militarily intervene in Africa. Chances of Ukrainian victory are narrow and South Africa has little to gain from a war torn nation.  

 

The European Union Does Not Want Peace In Ukraine

 

The European Union does not want a peace settlement in Ukraine. Since the Russia-Ukraine War broke out military aid and arms have been given by EU members. As Ukraine's losses mount, the much obvious path would be to start negotiations. The motivation for the European Union to keep the war going is to change the political dynamics of Europe. For European liberals and conservatives the war is a crusade to reinvigorate western values. Europe is struggling with its identity and cohesion. The era of large empires and international dominance has been declining gradually. European integration has to be in this view forcibly imposed on Eastern Europe. The West and Eastern Europe differ by politics and culture. The Russian Federation has a more traditional culture and is more aligned with the Global South. The EU member states are oriented to liberal democratic values with globalist sentiments. Conflict in Eastern Europe can be a gateway for forcing European integration on countries that do not favor it. The European Union insisted that the current was was unprovoked, when it was the 2014 coup that resulted in a series of unfortunate events. The Russian Federation either being weakened or dismantled would mean Europe would not have to be reliant on the country for energy. While it is apparent that Ukraine is not going to win the war, EU states do not want it to stop. France suggested sending some its own soldiers to Ukraine. Chances of a ceasefire are out of reach, even though President Putin would be open to an arrangement. President Zelensky does not believe the offer is genuine. The concern now is that the EU member states could send troops to Ukraine. Such a decision could spark a large European war.  

Ukraine Rejects Peace Proposals

 

Ukraine has rejected peace proposals. The reason relates to the fact that Russia occupies the eastern section of the country. Ukraine is divided not only politically, but on an ethnic basis. Ukrainians at this stage might not be willing to accept their ethnic Russian neighbors. The support for the Russian Federation is present in areas with more Russian speakers. President Zelensky does not want to negotiate without getting the territories lost back. The Ukrainian military is not strong enough to do so without aid or direct assistance from other European powers. There is no pathway for Ukraine to win or expel Russia. The Trump administration claimed it would have some form of agreement. The problem is that with no INF Treaty, nuclearization of Eastern Europe will continue. The Biden administration refused to acknowledge that the conflict was a war of proxy. The intent was to weaken the Russian Federation using Ukraine as a trap. The situation is different from the Soviet-Afghan War during the 1980s. Ukraine has become a victim of US geopolitical designs. Demands are being made by the US for Ukraine to agree to a mineral deal. Ukraine has lithium, titanium, and uranium deposits. Natural resources explains the US interference in Ukraine. Russia wants to halt NATO expansion and promote Slavic nationalism in Eastern Europe. The war could be coming to a close, but the aftermath will have devasting consequences. Ukraine is not going to escape the debt from the billions borrowed from EU nations. The US is going to more control over Ukraine's economic affairs. A peace proposal could save the government. President  Volodymyr Zelensky could either be removed by Russians or deposed by his own people. Cancelling elections demonstrates that he knows his support has waned or that he wants to remain in power indefinitely. A peace settlement is the only rational choice to bring Europe back to stability.      

The 2024 BRICS Summit

 

BRICS met for its sixteenth summit in 2024. It was hosted in Kazan, Russia. BRICS is expanding with more nations seeking to join. The challenge is that there are some tensions between some members. Venezuela and Brazil are experiencing a decline in diplomatic  relations. Brazil vetoed Venezuela's entry into BRICS. President Lula Da Silva questioned Venezuela's election results and appears to be drifting further away from President Nicolas Maduro. China and India do have border disputes. The atmosphere was different. Global South nations are asserting their economic independence. Since 2009 BRICS was an informal association of emerging economies in Asia, South America, and Africa. Since then it has become an important factor in the world economy. Attempts made by NATO to isolate Russia internationally were not successful. Seeing as the Russian Federation faces hostility from the European Union, diplomatic ties are sought elsewhere. A growing movement has emerged for creating a new currency and replacing the dollar. African and Asian nations are going to be a great force in the 21st century. Natural resources and a new currency are methods of challenging the dominance of EU countries. More members can be an advantage, but it brings complications. Argentina was set to join, yet reversed it decision. The reason was the country elected a right-wing libertarian President Javier Milei. Saudi Arabia has not taken the offer to become a member. Being a member of BRICS remaining western aligned would be difficult. Most EU countries and the United States see BRICS as an adversary. BRICS could also shield against sanctions unfairly placed on countries from Europe and North America. The 2024 BRICS summit marks an important geopolitical shift.   

The ICC Pressures Mongolia On President Vladimir Putin's Visit

 

Mongolia hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mongolia is an ICC member, but refused to arrest him. The warrant for his arrest was issued in 2023. The International Criminal Court has been criticized for being biased in charges and undermining national sovereignty of various countries. Mongolia wants to expand economic ties. This visit was not an endorsement of the Russia-Ukraine War. Most Asian and African nations want a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The EU nations continue to send arms. The ICC pressure on Mongolia just undermines the Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh presidency. Not arresting President Putin shows that Mongolia has an independent foreign policy. Mongolia does not exist to serve the ICC or European Union. If there is to be a system of international law, it should be applied to all nations. The International Criminal Court targets African and Asian leaders, while European leaders are exempt. Russia is at the moment, the only European country subject to the ICC  warrant. It has nothing to do with abuses in Ukraine, but to get access to Russian energy. A collapsed Russian Federation would mean certain natural resources could be obtained. President  Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh might have to reevaluate Mongolia being an ICC member. Forcing other leaders to arrest heads of state could cause legal and political complications.  

Viktor Orban Urges Ceasefire In The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban travelled to Ukraine to promote a ceasefire. Prime Minister Oban has not visited Ukraine since the conflict broke out in 2022. There have been attempts to make peace, but all have failed. President Volodymyr Zelensky has constantly asked for more aid from the European Union. One topic that was mentioned in the meeting was the ethnic Hungarians that reside in Ukraine. Tension exists with the Roma and ethnic Russian population. The discussion was related to the rights of the 100,000 Hungarians. Other bilateral matters were mentioned. After visiting Ukraine, Prime Minister Orban went to the Russian Federation. This did draw criticism from some EU countries, but seeking peace or an end to the war should not be condemned. Talking with President Vladimir Putin would help deescalate tensions. There is a possibility that these meetings will not produce any results. Hungary's motivations are not all altruistic. Seeking a ceasefire may be a means of preemptively stopping the chance of Ukrainian  refugees entering Hungary. Prime Minister Orban does not favor immigration to his country. When the war ends,  other EU nations are going to seek more influence in Ukraine. Hungary might be seeking to invest in Ukraine. Details and motivations remain unclear. If Viktor Orban was able to obtain a peace settlement that would elevate Hungary's diplomatic status. 

How The Russia-Ukraine War Ends

 The Russia-Ukraine War broke out in 2022. This was an extension of the internal civil war which continued to escalate. The destabilization of Eastern Europe was not an accident. The failure to adhere to the Minsk Accords enabled a bigger war and the opportunity to add more NATO members. Sweden and Finland are on the way to being new partners. Neoconservatives thought the Russian Federation would be weakened by a conflict on its border. The long term objective was to balkanize the country and make it lose its diplomatic connections to other countries. As the war progressed the delusional belief was that Ukraine could cause a major Russian defeat. Ukraine does not have the capability to defeat Russia. The US, UK, France, and Germany tried to convince the public that Russian defeat was inevitable. Observers of military affairs understood that this was not realistic. More weapons and funds are sent to Ukraine despite defeats and stalemates. Unless all of Europe goes to war with US assistance, the outcome will not be what the West intended. France has implied that it might be willing to send forces to Ukraine. The energy crisis and economic challenges has made the European public disgruntled. The public would be unwilling to fight a war for the sake of a neo-colonial imperial goal. Sending NATO forces in Ukraine would drag the United States further into the conflict. NATO forces have been reported to be stationed at the Ukrainian embassy. It is unclear the number of foreign forces inside Ukraine as of 2024. Ukraine is going to be defeated. When that happens depends on various factors. Wars could last for months or go on for years. The Russian intervention at some point will end. How the war ends can result in a number of outcomes. The Russian Federation could absorb all of Ukraine. Russia either retreats in the face of a combined US-NATO invasion. The more likely result is a peace settlement and the boundaries of Eastern Europe remain the same. 

       When Russia invaded the narrative was a  war of conquest. Russia invaded to support the militias fighting in the Donbass. The failure of  the second Minsk Accord cause the resumption of the civil war. If the 2014 coup never occurred, there would not have been a Russian military intervention. The narrative is that Russia is recreating the Soviet Union. Such an analysis does not take into account geopolitical realities. If the Soviet Union was to be revived Central Asia would have to be incorporated first. The region has more natural resources in comparison to Eastern Europe and the Baltic. The Russian Federation has no intention of restoring a one party communist state. Russia has embraced neoliberal capitalism. The dominance of the oligarchs shows the devasting effects of corporate avarice  and economic shock therapy from the 1990s. The narrative of a Soviet Union revival is more of historical fiction. Others active in geopolitical circles claim that  President Vladimir Putin aims to revive  the Russian Empire. To revive a Russian Empire, China would have to be neutralized. The People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation are moving toward an official military alliance. These actions do not indicate a revival  of  the Soviet Union and Russian Empire. Ukraine would not be a starting  point to build a Eurasian empire. Based on the events in 2023, Russia's goal was not to incorporate Ukraine. The long term objective is to halt NATO expansion getting closer to its borders. 

Russia is not attempting to force Ukraine into its territory. NATO secretary general Jen Stolenberg  admitted the war is not about saving Ukraine. Rather the Russia-Ukraine War was to justify expanding the military alliance. Stolenberg stated " the background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty  that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO entanglement." Russia is not invading Western Europe. NATO is becoming a more aggressive presence not only in Europe, but around the globe. This explains why Russia continues to support Belarus to counter Ukraine. The reason President Alexander Lukashenko allowed Russian forces stationed in the country. Belarus could be a target of NATO in the future. The alliance with Russia is designed to prevent a foreign military intervention . Whatever conquest would happen would be irridentist absorption of ethnic Russian population. Russia is not using Ukraine as launching center to invade all of Europe. 

      The most concerning outcome is a NATO war. This NATO war would involve all members to fight in Ukraine. The precarious nature  of this is possible nuclear war. A NATO-Russia war would involve the United States. Both the Russian Federation and the United States of America have massive nuclear arsenals. Russia does not want article 5 to be invoked. Without the INF Treaty there is no precautionary measures. A NATO-Russia war would either be Germany, France, and the UK sending soldiers to Ukraine. As Russia gets closer to Kiev they would be sent to prevent Ukraine's collapse. What neoconservatives hoped was that the Russia-Ukraine War would induce a Russian fall. The Russian-Ukraine War would then morph into a conflict into a balkanization. If Russia's defeat in Ukraine was immensely devastating it could create  a situation similar to the 1991 U.S.S.R collapse or the break-up of Yugoslavia. The Russian Federation would be divided into multiple successor states. Ukraine is not going to be able to push Russia back. The Russian Federation's economy and armed forces are too stable to induce dissolution. However, a US-NATO invasion could cause the Russian Federation to collapse. If such a war to take place there would be nuclear engagement. The end of the INF Treaty makes the situation extremely precarious. The conflict would be on the scale of a world war and possibly merge existing conflicts. A NATO war if Russia lost would mean it would break into a number of fragments. European Russia would be separated from Asian Siberia. NATO after a massive war would occupy the new polities. While the Ukrainian Civil War morphed into a Ukraine-Russia confrontation, turning into a Russia-NATO is not likely. The US, France, and the UK find it easier to keep the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a war of proxy. Financing, production of arms, and public support are going to be strained. The "stand with Ukraine" public relations effort cannot survive when people must be drafted, taxes have to be increased, and inflation from the energy crisis remain obstructions. Destabilizing the whole Eurasian landmass contains too many complications. Neoconservatives as another alternative geostrategy could seek to just reduce Russian national power. A weak Russian Federation means there is no opposition to the US-European Union bloc. A US-NATO invasion of Russian will not happen due to the difficulties of sustaining combat operations. 

       A peace settlement is possible. Russia prior to the conflict wanted to have a discussion with the United States about security guarantees. President Vladmir Putin discussed being open to dialogue. The announcement was given at his presidential inauguration. A number of towns and villages  are falling to Russian forces.  The northeast is witnessing an offensive. Simultaneously, Ukrainian soldiers are deserting and  filling positions become more difficult. Ukrainian refugees that are in other parts of Europe have no intention of  returning.  Ukraine has sent drones into Russia. These have had no effect because they are not hitting military targets. Russian citizens are at risk, but it has killed very few. Acts of terrorism will not change the events happening in the eastern  or the northeastern front. The invasion has evolved into a war of attrition. Despite all the arms to Ukraine, expulsion of Russian forces is not achievable. The Russian Federation will be closer to Kiev and capture it. Assuming the fighting continues with  guerilla warfare  tactics  or armed resistance, it will be over. The Russian offensive has caused 1,700 Ukrainians to flee. Civilians are not as likely to remain and take up arms. Ukraine's military attempted an counteroffensive in 2023. The June operation did not produce a tactical victory or shorten the war. Ukraine's military has deteriorated from a war of attrition. Under this pressure either the government or military will collapse. Ukraine might  request a peace settlement to avoid further deaths. President Volodymyr Zelensky was thinking about discussing peace with Russia, until Prime Minister  Boris Johnson convinced him not to. Seeing as the path to victory is narrow, Russians will probably dictate most of the peace terms. Removing President Zelensky is not going to be part of  a peace treaty. If Russia wanted they could have assassinated him by an airstrike. The reason they do not do this is because the more far-right extremists would takeover. A recreation of 2014 would mean another cycle of attacks and ethnic cleansing in the Donbas. The agreement would dictate that Ukraine has a neutral status or does not become a member of NATO. Either the Donbas becomes independent or seeks to join the Russian Federation through referendum. Russia's ownership of Crimea must be recognized under the peace agreement. These are the possible terms that Ukraine would have to accept after defeat. The map of Europe is not going to drastically change. Based on the Russo-Georgian  War in 2008, Ukraine does not have to fear losing its independence. Georgia lost some territory, but was not incorporated into Russia. Ukraine could lose Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia. Those two provinces may even try to become their own states. Ukraine would object to this, but have no choice to acknowledge the peace terms.

     Peace should be the preferred outcome. Even if established, Eastern Europe will not be the same. Ukraine during the civil war and the Russia-Ukraine War has become more authoritarian. President Volodymyr  Zelensky has postponed elections even though his term is set to expire. He might cling to power using a state of emergency justification. Just because the war comes to an end does not mean rights will be respected. Ukraine at the moment is not a member of NATO. Instead it will be further militarized by the European Union. More tanks, planes, and guns are going to sent to Ukraine, because the arms industry sees it as an investment. Ukraine has amassed large debt from the war. The countries that provided financial assistance are not going to allow debt cancellation. Ukraine will be at the mercy of the UK. France, Germany, and the United States. Russia's influence is not undermining Ukraine's sovereignty; the West is. The Ukraine project in terms of military goals  has been a failure. Russia did not fall or become weaker. To avoid condemnation, the narrative is being adjusted. The escalation of the war is going to be presented as a preemptive measure. The West halted Russian expansion into Europe. The dishonest assertion ignores the fact that the catalyst was adding more NATO members. NATO is not seeking a defensive strategy, rather an anti-Russian military alliance. Any country that has armed forces coming closer to its borders will react. The mistake of the Russian Federation was being provoked into intervention in the Ukrainian Civil War. The war of proxy that is occurring might not produce the results belligerents desire. The war caused more countries to join NATO. The United States has not been able to destabilize or produce regime change in Russia. When peace does come the relations between countries shall be altered. Ukraine and Belarus are going to have worse diplomatic relations. Russia is going to invest more in building Belarus militarily as a counter to Ukraine. A peace treaty can be made, but this will not shield the region from the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War. Refugees, damaged infrastructure, and far-right extremist violence are going to be persistent issues.               

Terrorist Attack In Moscow

 

Russia has experienced a terrorist attack. Reports state that the culprits are connected to ISIS. The Russian government has reported that 137 people were killed in the attack. The Crocus City Hall concert venue was the target of the culprits. The four gunmen have been arrested and are on trial. President Putin when addressing the Russian Federation asserted that the gunmen were trying to flee to Ukraine. There is not enough information to know the exact plans of the terrorists. Making a connection to Ukraine would be premature. Ukraine has conducted strikes into Russian territory. This has been done with missiles and drones. The only reason that ISIS would attack Russia is due to its support of Syria. The reason ISIS and other terrorist organizations could not takeover was due to Russian intervention in the country. The suspects are from Tajikistan. The Central Asian countries have been fighting terrorist organizations for decades. The reason people join them is due to the anger at authoritarian regimes in the region. More people are being detained which has reached a total of 11 suspects. This might indicate a wider criminal conspiracy and possible interference from other countries. The US claims it shared information of a possible attack with Russia. This seems uncharacteristic of the US. due to the fact relations have been poor since 2014.The sanctions were designed to harm the Russian population, not its government. The EU using terrorist organizations to destabilize a country remains policy. This occurred in both Syria and Libya. The process could be replicated in Russia. At the moment this would be mere speculation. The FSB 's investigation is ongoing.    

Alexei Navalny's Emergence And Anti-Immigrant Politics (2012)

 

Alexei Navalny emerged during the 2010s as a figure of political opposition to Vladimir Putin. The lawyer turned blogger became an activist fighting corruption related to the role of business in government. The press tried to present him as a hero fighting authoritarianism in the Russian government. Honest reporting revealed that Navalny had political views that expressed xenophobic sentiment and racism. Navalny showed disdain for migrants. Central Asians, Muslims for the Caucasus, and Georgians he expressed were causing problems for the Russian Federation. He stated that Central Asians were trafficking drugs into Russia. Far-right nationalism and racism have been on the rise in Russia. Alexei Navalny wanted to use this development to build a movement. This ultranationalist movement Alexei Navalny was intended to replace the prominence of the United Russia Party. The West had interest in Navalny as a means of undermining President Vladimir Putin. Navalny was not trying to eliminate corruption rather replace the established oligarchs. Alexei Navalny died in prison and some have rushed to the conclusion Vladimir Putin ordered his death. Accusations of poisoning have been made, but there is no toxicology report to confirm this. Navalny was arrested in 2021. The charges ranged from violating court parole, encouraging extremism, and embezzlement. It can not be said that he got a fair trail under the current political circumstances. The Russian Federation will be divided over Alexei Navalny as a public figure.    

The Status The Wagner Group

 

Through out the world a number of mercenary groups are active. The Wagner Group has become notable since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin has created questions about the Wagner Group's status. Accusations have been made that President Putin wanted him eliminated, but there is no evidence of this. Prior to his death, there was an attempt at a Wagner Group coup. A settlement was reached that was proposed by President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus. The forces would remain in his country and Yevgeny Prigozhin would be pardoned. The likely candidates for the assassination  could be Ukraine, Poland, or one of the Baltic states. An investigation has not been conducted so this remains mere conjecture. What the Russian government did determine was that Prigozhin did die in a plane crash.  The Wagner Group was not only active in Eastern Europe. Africa is another place of operation for the mercenary group. The Wagner Group has been active since 2014 and remains independent of the Russian government. The organization itself is listed in Russia as a private military company. Under Russian law mercenary groups are illegal. The Wagner Group has similarities to Black Water. The distinction between private military company and mercenary becomes blurred considering the majority are operating in war zones. The Wagner Group could either be disbanded or put into exile in Belarus. It seems unlikely that President Putin would arrest all members of the Wagner Group. Operations in  Mali, the Central African Republic, Sudan, and Libya are still active. The Wagner Group is being used by some leaders to fight terrorist organizations and armed insurgencies. The reward from this are gold mining contracts which generates wealth for the company. One option for the Wagner Group is to merge with the Russian military. Unless there is some crackdown on the Wagner Group, it will continue to function. The death of    Yevgeny Prigozhin creates a high level of tension and uncertainty. The Russian Federation might be more cautious in regards to the use of mercenaries and private military companies. 

Rising Tension Between Poland And Belarus

 

Belarus and Poland are seeing a decline in diplomatic relations. Poland has stated that Belarus sent military helicopters into its air space. Now rumors are circulating that there is a possibility of a military strike. Belarus has not engaged in the war in Ukraine. The country has allowed Russian troops to be stationed in its territory. However, no Belarusians have fought in the conflict, Fears have grown that Belarus will either be pulled into the conflict by NATO or forced to do so by the Russian Federation. Ever since the Wagner Group incident, the mercenary organization has remained in Belarus. NATO has accused it of attempting to threaten member states by using Belarus as a base. The air space incident probably was not intentional. Minsk did alert Warsaw about a military exercise they were conducting. If there was a plan of a war, a nation would not make its plans known to a foreign government. It has been known that Poland has attempted to instigate conflict with Belarus. Much of the tension focuses on the Suwalki gap. This border has much strategic significance to Russia, Belarus, and the EU. The vital link to Kaliningrad is an area the Russian Federation does not want to lose. If Belarus was invaded by NATO that would put Russia in a precarious situation. The Poland and Belarus tension is the direct result of NATO adding members such as Finland as well as Sweden. The counter by being active in the Suwalki gap would be to cut off the Baltic states from other NATO members. Poland is having diplomatic disputes with Ukraine. Their is frustration from Poland when it comes to assisting Ukraine in grain export. Poland has provided aid to Ukraine, but a sentiment exists that Ukraine has not been appreciative for the help. Belarus would not attack Poland due to Article Five. Belarus would then have to fight the majority of European countries. Poland has an investment in attacking Belarus. The view is that it is not its own country, but a Russian extension. If that were the case Belarus would have been more active in Ukraine. The decline in Polish-Belarusian relations reveals the rapid destabilization of Eastern Europe.   

The Russian Anti-War Protests

 

Since 2022 there have been anti-war protests in Russia. The protesters disagree with President Putin's invasion of Ukraine and NATO instigation. The press in the UK, US, France, and Germany does not acknowledge the anti-war movement in Russia. Anti-war activists globally have not made connections to organizations active in the Russian Federation. The reason other countries do not recognize the Russian anti-war movement is because it does not fit a certain narrative. The press and government of Europe and North America wants to present an image of a nefarious Russian Federation. Russophobia has become a normalized sentiment extending to a wider xenophobia. The language and paranoia of the Cold War has reemerged even though the Soviet Union no longer exists. Russian are seen as malevolent, rather than focusing on actions of the United Russia Party. The existence of anti-war activists in Russia dismantles the narrative of Russians unanimously supporting the government. The unusual aspect is that some would think that the EU would want to show support to the protest. The motivation would not be out of concern for the cause of peace, but rather to undermine President Vladimir Putin. Russian anti-war activists face imprisonment and are harassed by the government. The anti-war activists in other countries have shown limited support for those inside the Russian Federation. Suppression and lack of international solidarity will cause the anti-war movement in Russia to disappear. The estimate for the number of detained was 1,700 in 2022. The figures could be higher, but an official number has not been confirmed for 2023. The anti-war movement in Russia also has broken into factions divided on issues related to those who want President Putin to resign and support for opposition leader Alexei Navalny. 

Russia Intends To Place Tactical Nuclear Weapons In Belarus

 

The Russian Federation intends to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Building up the military strength of Belarus was one plan to counter NATO expansion. The option was available if or when Ukraine becomes part of the military alliance. The second option was to intervene in Ukraine's civil war and secure the Donbas. Now it appears that a hybrid of both plans will be used. Without the INF Treaty, nuclear weapons production will increase. Finland comes closer to NATO membership, Russia wants to counter the new members with Belarus. Eastern Europe is becoming more militarized. Tension and fear only creates a more unstable atmosphere. The proliferation of nuclear weapons next to a war zone could cause further escalation. Tactical nuclear weapons are short range and to not have the capability of obliterating entire cities. These types of nuclear weapons are not subject to the same treaties as strategic nuclear weapons. The United States also has tactical nuclear weapons present on the soil of its NATO allies. Knowing this the possibility of a nuclear war becomes more likely. This is the first time Russia has sought to deploy nuclear weapons outside its borders since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The decision might have been adopted in response to the ICC warrant for President Vladmir Putin and the continued shipment of arms from EU countries. Whatever the result will be, Eastern Europe has become a zone of proxy war. 

Germany Will Send Leopard 2 Tanks To Ukraine

 

Germany  has confirmed that it will give Ukraine more arms. What Ukraine will be getting is leopard 2 tanks. For months, the public has been told that Russia will not be successful. Now, it appears that the Russian Federation will maintain the territories in the Donbas. Russia has more tanks than Ukraine, so this will not dramatically change the situation. The only people who benefit are the arms manufacturers. The war in Ukraine has increased profits for these corporations. The Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates the devasting effects of the military industrial complex. The major concern for Germany is that they would be pushed out the arms market in Europe by the United States. Gradually, the war is escalating and might spread. Belarus or Moldova could be drawn into the conflict. Chancellor Olof Scholz stated only 14 tanks are being sent to Ukraine. It should be assumed that more will come. The US and United Kingdom are sending tanks, which indicates some economic competition. Sending more weapons prolongs the conflict and results in more loss of life. More arms come, a peace settlement becomes more unattainable. NATO does not want a peace settlement and Russia has lost patience . The conflict could last months or  years with more arms shipments.   

The Russian Mobilization

 

Russian mobilization marks a turning point in the war. Ukraine could be engulfed by the Russian Federation if a peace settlement is not reached. NATO expansion is what instigated the conflict, yet few European leaders want to address the issue. The reaction inside the Russian Federation has been a growing  anti-war movement. Germany, France, and the UK ignore these protests and instead demonize the Russian population. Russia at the start of the invasion did not use their full military capability. Now there is a desire to do so. The only way for the conflict to end is to make Ukraine neutral and halt NATO expansion in Eastern Europe. Russia can easily halt all energy sales to Europe in response to arming Ukraine. Germany, France, and the UK are facing an energy crisis . Without gas and oil  the European economy is in peril. The weapons and money being shipped are not fully accounted for. Allegations have been made a majority of the weapons Ukraine requested have not reached them. The invasion was at first not about conquest. It was to aid the militias in the east. That might change if further escalation continues. The only way Russia could lose is if every NATO county attacked with the United States. These actions could trigger a nuclear exchange. A direct conflict between the United States and Russia would result in nuclear war. Russian mobilization does not mean the country is struggling. Russia is pushing to end the conflict in a few months. The intent of  NATO is to extend the conflict for several years to weaken Russia. This cannot happen if the Ukrainian military cannot defend against more forces entering its territory. The mobilization phase shows that the Russia-Ukraine war is going to get more violent.  

The Darya Dugina Assassination

 

Journalist Darya Dugina was assassinated under mysterious circumstances. A car bomb was detonated, but no group has claimed responsibility for the murder. The speculation was that some in Ukraine were the culprits. Other theories are that it was the Russian government itself. No evidence of this has been produced. The murder will surely have an impact on the Russia-Ukraine war. The official statements by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is that it was a Ukrainian plot. Natalia Vovk is a suspect in the murder. Ukraine continues to deny accusations that it planned an assassination. It is unclear if Darya was the actual target or Alexander Dugin. Darya was supportive of Russia's invasion, which would make her a target. Ukraine made the claim that the real culprits were Russian separatists groups. The FSB claims it was a conspiracy of the Azov Battalion. Darya Dugina was not a political figure and did not hold power in the United Russia Party. This was an attack of extremists on a journalist. Oddly, the media is not framing it in that way. The reason could be due to growing anti-Russian sentiment in the West. Journalists of all nations face the threat of violence or death.