The Russia-Ukraine War broke out in 2022. This was an extension of the internal civil war which continued to escalate. The destabilization of Eastern Europe was not an accident. The failure to adhere to the Minsk Accords enabled a bigger war and the opportunity to add more NATO members. Sweden and Finland are on the way to being new partners. Neoconservatives thought the Russian Federation would be weakened by a conflict on its border. The long term objective was to balkanize the country and make it lose its diplomatic connections to other countries. As the war progressed the delusional belief was that Ukraine could cause a major Russian defeat. Ukraine does not have the capability to defeat Russia. The US, UK, France, and Germany tried to convince the public that Russian defeat was inevitable. Observers of military affairs understood that this was not realistic. More weapons and funds are sent to Ukraine despite defeats and stalemates. Unless all of Europe goes to war with US assistance, the outcome will not be what the West intended. France has implied that it might be willing to send forces to Ukraine. The energy crisis and economic challenges has made the European public disgruntled. The public would be unwilling to fight a war for the sake of a neo-colonial imperial goal. Sending NATO forces in Ukraine would drag the United States further into the conflict. NATO forces have been reported to be stationed at the Ukrainian embassy. It is unclear the number of foreign forces inside Ukraine as of 2024. Ukraine is going to be defeated. When that happens depends on various factors. Wars could last for months or go on for years. The Russian intervention at some point will end. How the war ends can result in a number of outcomes. The Russian Federation could absorb all of Ukraine. Russia either retreats in the face of a combined US-NATO invasion. The more likely result is a peace settlement and the boundaries of Eastern Europe remain the same.
When Russia invaded the narrative was a war of conquest. Russia invaded to support the militias fighting in the Donbass. The failure of the second Minsk Accord cause the resumption of the civil war. If the 2014 coup never occurred, there would not have been a Russian military intervention. The narrative is that Russia is recreating the Soviet Union. Such an analysis does not take into account geopolitical realities. If the Soviet Union was to be revived Central Asia would have to be incorporated first. The region has more natural resources in comparison to Eastern Europe and the Baltic. The Russian Federation has no intention of restoring a one party communist state. Russia has embraced neoliberal capitalism. The dominance of the oligarchs shows the devasting effects of corporate avarice and economic shock therapy from the 1990s. The narrative of a Soviet Union revival is more of historical fiction. Others active in geopolitical circles claim that President Vladimir Putin aims to revive the Russian Empire. To revive a Russian Empire, China would have to be neutralized. The People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation are moving toward an official military alliance. These actions do not indicate a revival of the Soviet Union and Russian Empire. Ukraine would not be a starting point to build a Eurasian empire. Based on the events in 2023, Russia's goal was not to incorporate Ukraine. The long term objective is to halt NATO expansion getting closer to its borders.
Russia is not attempting to force Ukraine into its territory. NATO secretary general Jen Stolenberg admitted the war is not about saving Ukraine. Rather the Russia-Ukraine War was to justify expanding the military alliance. Stolenberg stated " the background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO entanglement." Russia is not invading Western Europe. NATO is becoming a more aggressive presence not only in Europe, but around the globe. This explains why Russia continues to support Belarus to counter Ukraine. The reason President Alexander Lukashenko allowed Russian forces stationed in the country. Belarus could be a target of NATO in the future. The alliance with Russia is designed to prevent a foreign military intervention . Whatever conquest would happen would be irridentist absorption of ethnic Russian population. Russia is not using Ukraine as launching center to invade all of Europe.
The most concerning outcome is a NATO war. This NATO war would involve all members to fight in Ukraine. The precarious nature of this is possible nuclear war. A NATO-Russia war would involve the United States. Both the Russian Federation and the United States of America have massive nuclear arsenals. Russia does not want article 5 to be invoked. Without the INF Treaty there is no precautionary measures. A NATO-Russia war would either be Germany, France, and the UK sending soldiers to Ukraine. As Russia gets closer to Kiev they would be sent to prevent Ukraine's collapse. What neoconservatives hoped was that the Russia-Ukraine War would induce a Russian fall. The Russian-Ukraine War would then morph into a conflict into a balkanization. If Russia's defeat in Ukraine was immensely devastating it could create a situation similar to the 1991 U.S.S.R collapse or the break-up of Yugoslavia. The Russian Federation would be divided into multiple successor states. Ukraine is not going to be able to push Russia back. The Russian Federation's economy and armed forces are too stable to induce dissolution. However, a US-NATO invasion could cause the Russian Federation to collapse. If such a war to take place there would be nuclear engagement. The end of the INF Treaty makes the situation extremely precarious. The conflict would be on the scale of a world war and possibly merge existing conflicts. A NATO war if Russia lost would mean it would break into a number of fragments. European Russia would be separated from Asian Siberia. NATO after a massive war would occupy the new polities. While the Ukrainian Civil War morphed into a Ukraine-Russia confrontation, turning into a Russia-NATO is not likely. The US, France, and the UK find it easier to keep the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a war of proxy. Financing, production of arms, and public support are going to be strained. The "stand with Ukraine" public relations effort cannot survive when people must be drafted, taxes have to be increased, and inflation from the energy crisis remain obstructions. Destabilizing the whole Eurasian landmass contains too many complications. Neoconservatives as another alternative geostrategy could seek to just reduce Russian national power. A weak Russian Federation means there is no opposition to the US-European Union bloc. A US-NATO invasion of Russian will not happen due to the difficulties of sustaining combat operations.
A peace settlement is possible. Russia prior to the conflict wanted to have a discussion with the United States about security guarantees. President Vladmir Putin discussed being open to dialogue. The announcement was given at his presidential inauguration. A number of towns and villages are falling to Russian forces. The northeast is witnessing an offensive. Simultaneously, Ukrainian soldiers are deserting and filling positions become more difficult. Ukrainian refugees that are in other parts of Europe have no intention of returning. Ukraine has sent drones into Russia. These have had no effect because they are not hitting military targets. Russian citizens are at risk, but it has killed very few. Acts of terrorism will not change the events happening in the eastern or the northeastern front. The invasion has evolved into a war of attrition. Despite all the arms to Ukraine, expulsion of Russian forces is not achievable. The Russian Federation will be closer to Kiev and capture it. Assuming the fighting continues with guerilla warfare tactics or armed resistance, it will be over. The Russian offensive has caused 1,700 Ukrainians to flee. Civilians are not as likely to remain and take up arms. Ukraine's military attempted an counteroffensive in 2023. The June operation did not produce a tactical victory or shorten the war. Ukraine's military has deteriorated from a war of attrition. Under this pressure either the government or military will collapse. Ukraine might request a peace settlement to avoid further deaths. President Volodymyr Zelensky was thinking about discussing peace with Russia, until Prime Minister Boris Johnson convinced him not to. Seeing as the path to victory is narrow, Russians will probably dictate most of the peace terms. Removing President Zelensky is not going to be part of a peace treaty. If Russia wanted they could have assassinated him by an airstrike. The reason they do not do this is because the more far-right extremists would takeover. A recreation of 2014 would mean another cycle of attacks and ethnic cleansing in the Donbas. The agreement would dictate that Ukraine has a neutral status or does not become a member of NATO. Either the Donbas becomes independent or seeks to join the Russian Federation through referendum. Russia's ownership of Crimea must be recognized under the peace agreement. These are the possible terms that Ukraine would have to accept after defeat. The map of Europe is not going to drastically change. Based on the Russo-Georgian War in 2008, Ukraine does not have to fear losing its independence. Georgia lost some territory, but was not incorporated into Russia. Ukraine could lose Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia. Those two provinces may even try to become their own states. Ukraine would object to this, but have no choice to acknowledge the peace terms.
Peace should be the preferred outcome. Even if established, Eastern Europe will not be the same. Ukraine during the civil war and the Russia-Ukraine War has become more authoritarian. President Volodymyr Zelensky has postponed elections even though his term is set to expire. He might cling to power using a state of emergency justification. Just because the war comes to an end does not mean rights will be respected. Ukraine at the moment is not a member of NATO. Instead it will be further militarized by the European Union. More tanks, planes, and guns are going to sent to Ukraine, because the arms industry sees it as an investment. Ukraine has amassed large debt from the war. The countries that provided financial assistance are not going to allow debt cancellation. Ukraine will be at the mercy of the UK. France, Germany, and the United States. Russia's influence is not undermining Ukraine's sovereignty; the West is. The Ukraine project in terms of military goals has been a failure. Russia did not fall or become weaker. To avoid condemnation, the narrative is being adjusted. The escalation of the war is going to be presented as a preemptive measure. The West halted Russian expansion into Europe. The dishonest assertion ignores the fact that the catalyst was adding more NATO members. NATO is not seeking a defensive strategy, rather an anti-Russian military alliance. Any country that has armed forces coming closer to its borders will react. The mistake of the Russian Federation was being provoked into intervention in the Ukrainian Civil War. The war of proxy that is occurring might not produce the results belligerents desire. The war caused more countries to join NATO. The United States has not been able to destabilize or produce regime change in Russia. When peace does come the relations between countries shall be altered. Ukraine and Belarus are going to have worse diplomatic relations. Russia is going to invest more in building Belarus militarily as a counter to Ukraine. A peace treaty can be made, but this will not shield the region from the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War. Refugees, damaged infrastructure, and far-right extremist violence are going to be persistent issues.
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