The Changes Coming To Eastern Europe

 

The Alaska Summit was held by President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The meeting did not produce any peace settlements or an end to violence. The speculation was that it was a discussion of partition of Ukraine. President Zelensky is set to meet with President Trump after the Alaska Summit.  The Russia-Ukraine War has changed Eastern Europe. Belarus is viewed with more hostility due to its alliance with the Russian Federation. The country has not sent any forces, but is subject to sanctions by the European Union. The rest of Eastern Europe is becoming more militarized. Poland does host US air defense systems and military bases. Even if a peace settlement is reached, US military bases will not be removed. Ukraine will lose territory and the western section under a US- European Union sphere of influence. Hungary being closer to the Russian Federation is seeing a decline in relations with the UK and Germany. The war is also causing changes in the Balkans and the Baltic. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are going to be given more arms. Kosovo is going to be pushed to be recognized to undermine Serbia.  NATO members in Europe are expected to increase spending to 5% of their GDP. The economic consequences are going to be negative for the citizens of the UK, Germany, France, and Italy. As taxation increases and social services are cut, public discord will grow. The demographic shift in Ukraine is going to effect the rest of Europe. Since 2022, Ukrainians have fled to avoid military service, violence, and seek safety. As more people die, the country is feeling the consequences of population decline. The Ukrainians that are refugees, might not decide to return. More refugees are going to come when the war is over. Sudden increases of refugee traffic from inside Europe will generate resentment. The loss of the Russia-Ukraine War will halt efforts at European integration. Eastern Europe is becoming divided between EU-NATO supporting countries and those that want diplomatic relations with Russia. 

Ukraine Seeks Diplomatic Ties With South Africa

President Volodymyr Zelensky came to South Africa to strengthen diplomatic ties. The conversations with South African Cyril Ramaphosa ranged from trade and the situation in Eastern  Europe. The trip was cut short by news of bombings of the Ukrainian  capital of  Kyiv. The visit was really not about bilateral relations. It was President Zelensky's attempt to undermine Russia's diplomatic status with South Africa. The BRICS members do not favor sanctions  on Russia or the growing anti-Russian sentiment within the European Union. Attempts have been made for peace settlements or possible ceasefire. All have been rejected. South Africa hosting the Ukrainian president seems odd considering the past treatment of Africans residing in Ukraine. African students faced discriminatory treatment when fleeing Ukraine in 2022. Africans in Ukraine constantly face forms of prejudice and discrimination. Ukrainian forces are active in parts of Africa according to some reports. Ukraine has sent special forces to Sudan and Mali. The reason Ukraine did this was to undermine the Wagner Group and Russia diplomatic missions in Africa. These instances of interference demonstrate that Ukraine is not an ally of African nations. The 2023 African Union peace delegation to Ukraine was rebuffed and subject to harsh treatment. President Zelensky was demanding that European countries continue to support the war effort. Seeing as arms  are  dissipating Ukraine is looking elsewhere. South Africa is under no obligation to help Ukraine or any other European state. After the 2023 AU peace deal proposal, it is obvious Ukraine does not value African council. The Russia-Ukraine War does work to the benefit of Africa. If the European Union keeps funding the conflict it will weaken the UK, France, and Germany. This means Europe will no longer be able to militarily intervene in Africa. Chances of Ukrainian victory are narrow and South Africa has little to gain from a war torn nation.  

 

Ukraine Rejects Peace Proposals

 

Ukraine has rejected peace proposals. The reason relates to the fact that Russia occupies the eastern section of the country. Ukraine is divided not only politically, but on an ethnic basis. Ukrainians at this stage might not be willing to accept their ethnic Russian neighbors. The support for the Russian Federation is present in areas with more Russian speakers. President Zelensky does not want to negotiate without getting the territories lost back. The Ukrainian military is not strong enough to do so without aid or direct assistance from other European powers. There is no pathway for Ukraine to win or expel Russia. The Trump administration claimed it would have some form of agreement. The problem is that with no INF Treaty, nuclearization of Eastern Europe will continue. The Biden administration refused to acknowledge that the conflict was a war of proxy. The intent was to weaken the Russian Federation using Ukraine as a trap. The situation is different from the Soviet-Afghan War during the 1980s. Ukraine has become a victim of US geopolitical designs. Demands are being made by the US for Ukraine to agree to a mineral deal. Ukraine has lithium, titanium, and uranium deposits. Natural resources explains the US interference in Ukraine. Russia wants to halt NATO expansion and promote Slavic nationalism in Eastern Europe. The war could be coming to a close, but the aftermath will have devasting consequences. Ukraine is not going to escape the debt from the billions borrowed from EU nations. The US is going to more control over Ukraine's economic affairs. A peace proposal could save the government. President  Volodymyr Zelensky could either be removed by Russians or deposed by his own people. Cancelling elections demonstrates that he knows his support has waned or that he wants to remain in power indefinitely. A peace settlement is the only rational choice to bring Europe back to stability.      

Hunter Biden Gets A Presidential Pardon

 

Hunter Biden has gotten a presidential pardon from the Biden administration. President Joseph Biden claimed that he would not give one to his son. The argument was that administration wants to respect the rule of law. This conviction does not apply to members of the Biden family. Hunter Biden has gun charges and has been accused of tax evasion. The criminal justice system favors the powerful, white, and elite class. The reversal was done most likely because of the incoming Trump administration. If Biden remained in the presidential race and won, Hunter Biden would not have faced punishment. Getting a pardon now ensures that Hunter would not face retaliation from the next administration. Hunter Biden might have information related to business operations in Ukraine, which President Biden does not want public. The Democratic Party has attempted to create an image of a humanitarian organization and those who believe in justice. Pardoning Hunter Biden shows a level corruption, white privilege, and criminality similar to that of the Trump administration. Political figures are above the law, but it also includes their families. The presidential pardon is gradually evolving to let criminals go free. The drug charges are the least egregious offense. The War on Drugs criminalized addiction, which is a psychological disorder. Hunter Biden not paying his taxes and business dealings in Ukraine are serious crimes. The US government has grown more corrupt from the presidency to the courts. Few  Democratic senators and congressional representatives have condemned the Hunter Biden pardon. Speculation has circulated that the pardon was done as an expression of anger for the Democratic Party removing Biden as the nominee. President Biden doing the pardon for his son puts the Democratic Party in an awkward  position. The contradiction is one that the Democratic Party will have to confront beyond 2024.   

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict And The Use of ATACMS

 

Ukraine has been supplied with MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems. Ukraine has attacked inside Russian territory and now it is being with more weapons. The use of ATACMS proves that the conflict in Eastern Europe is a proxy war between NATO and the Russian Federation. Ukraine's chances of winning the conflict have decreased. Recapturing the Donbas and Crimea are out of reach. The Biden administration supplying ATACMS is another escalation in the Russia-Ukraine War. The Russian Federation asserted the conflict was a special military operation, but it is apparent NATO wants to be aggressive with the Russian Federation. There is little hope that with an incoming Trump administration that a peace settlement will be obtained. The European Union is thus left to figure out how to manage an energy crisis and a new wave of Ukrainian refugees. President Biden's supply of ATACMS is an attempt to reverse Ukraine's military failures. The conditions have worsened with the US embassy being shut. The Russian Federation could retaliate with massive airstrikes. Some European leaders are realizing that arming Ukraine is causing more destabilization of Europe. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed he will not supply Taurus long range missiles to the conflict. This is not so much for peace, but due to the fact an election is approaching in Germany. Chancellor Scholz has spoken with President Vladimir Putin. This was the first time since December of 2022. There is no indication in the hour long phone call that a peace settlement was discussed. Germany might be more interested in continuing its economic partnership with the Russian Federation. The recent shipment of arms from the UK and US are not going to produce  the military defeat of the Russian Federation. It has been speculated that some want the war to continue for the sake of the arms industry. Lockheed Martin is that main producer of ATACMS. The Russia-Ukraine War provides a market for various weapons.  

North Korean Involvement in The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Reports have been circulating that North Korea has sent Russia troops to Ukraine. Russia and North Korea have become more close over the years. Despite the fact Russia abandoned communism in 1991, North Korea sees the Russia alliance as critical. North Korea has been forced into isolation through sanctions and the United Nations. Video was also posted showing North Korean soldiers putting on gear with Russian soldiers. The North Korean forces are allegedly active in Kursk. Ukraine launched attacks inside of Russia. As the proxy war expands, more countries will get involved. North Korea's motivation could be a way to prevent future attacks by NATO. North Korea could be subject to a NATO intervention. Another motive is to get access to Ukraine's wheat. North Korea struggles with food security. Getting access to Ukrainian wheat could solve this problem. South Korea might react by supporting Ukraine with troops. North Korea and South Korea have been in a state of war since the Cold War. That would mean the tension on the Korean peninsula would spill over into Eastern Europe. NATO and South Korea have given conflicting numbers about the total number of North Korean forces. South Korea has stated it could be a total of 12,000 North Korean forces. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte put the number at 10,000. The numbers might be exaggerated for other reasons. It might be used as a justification for EU countries to attack North Korea. North Korea entering the war does not change the status in Eastern Europe. The Russian Federation is getting closer to winning the conflict. North Korea most likely is acting as a substitute for Belarus. Belarus did not send its forces to Ukraine. North Korea possibly going there as minor auxiliary support.   

Viktor Orban Urges Ceasefire In The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban travelled to Ukraine to promote a ceasefire. Prime Minister Oban has not visited Ukraine since the conflict broke out in 2022. There have been attempts to make peace, but all have failed. President Volodymyr Zelensky has constantly asked for more aid from the European Union. One topic that was mentioned in the meeting was the ethnic Hungarians that reside in Ukraine. Tension exists with the Roma and ethnic Russian population. The discussion was related to the rights of the 100,000 Hungarians. Other bilateral matters were mentioned. After visiting Ukraine, Prime Minister Orban went to the Russian Federation. This did draw criticism from some EU countries, but seeking peace or an end to the war should not be condemned. Talking with President Vladimir Putin would help deescalate tensions. There is a possibility that these meetings will not produce any results. Hungary's motivations are not all altruistic. Seeking a ceasefire may be a means of preemptively stopping the chance of Ukrainian  refugees entering Hungary. Prime Minister Orban does not favor immigration to his country. When the war ends,  other EU nations are going to seek more influence in Ukraine. Hungary might be seeking to invest in Ukraine. Details and motivations remain unclear. If Viktor Orban was able to obtain a peace settlement that would elevate Hungary's diplomatic status. 

President Zelensky Wants To Halt Elections

 

The crackdown on internal dissent continues in Ukraine. President Volodymtr Zelensky wants to have elections halted. This includes the parliamentary elections and the presidential elections scheduled for next year. So far no EU country has made a statement about the plan. President Zelensky justifies the action saying conditions are not stable for elections. He explained further as long as martial law is in place the decision will remain. Ukrainians should have a right to select their leaders . These actions show the development of an authoritarian political structure. The warning signs first came with the attacks on the press. As the Russia-Ukraine War continues the chances of a Ukrainian victory become less possible. The counteroffensive has not push Russia back to its borders. The Wagner Group incident did not spark a massive rebellion or coup. The events in Bakmut show that using mercenaries creates complications in warfare. President Zelensky stated that what he is doing is within the parameters of the Ukrainian constitution. The political opposition might have a legal argument to challenge halting elections. What some observe is this is a way for President Zelensky to remain in power. Winning an election would be difficult considering the military defeats. The UK, France, and Germany are going to support Zelensky no matter how anti-democratic the administration gets. For those countries causing a Russian defeat is more important than the welfare of Ukrainians. Peace talks become more out of reach with every passing month. If elections are not held this marks the start of an authoritarian regime. The silence of the European Union exposes the contradictory and corrupt nature of their foreign policy.   

The Russian Anti-War Protests

 

Since 2022 there have been anti-war protests in Russia. The protesters disagree with President Putin's invasion of Ukraine and NATO instigation. The press in the UK, US, France, and Germany does not acknowledge the anti-war movement in Russia. Anti-war activists globally have not made connections to organizations active in the Russian Federation. The reason other countries do not recognize the Russian anti-war movement is because it does not fit a certain narrative. The press and government of Europe and North America wants to present an image of a nefarious Russian Federation. Russophobia has become a normalized sentiment extending to a wider xenophobia. The language and paranoia of the Cold War has reemerged even though the Soviet Union no longer exists. Russian are seen as malevolent, rather than focusing on actions of the United Russia Party. The existence of anti-war activists in Russia dismantles the narrative of Russians unanimously supporting the government. The unusual aspect is that some would think that the EU would want to show support to the protest. The motivation would not be out of concern for the cause of peace, but rather to undermine President Vladimir Putin. Russian anti-war activists face imprisonment and are harassed by the government. The anti-war activists in other countries have shown limited support for those inside the Russian Federation. Suppression and lack of international solidarity will cause the anti-war movement in Russia to disappear. The estimate for the number of detained was 1,700 in 2022. The figures could be higher, but an official number has not been confirmed for 2023. The anti-war movement in Russia also has broken into factions divided on issues related to those who want President Putin to resign and support for opposition leader Alexei Navalny. 

African Leaders Are Proposing A Peace Plan To The Russia-Ukraine War

 

African leaders have grown concerned about the war in Ukraine. Now, an effort is being made to formulate a plan for peace with South Africa taking leading the mission. African leaders will head to both Moscow and Kiev. President Cyril Ramaphosa has made phone calls to both President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky. There remains doubts about success. The attempt should be praised, considering the European Union has done little. The peace mission demonstrates that African nations are becoming more influential on the international stage. Zambia, the Republic of the Congo, Senegal, Uganda, and Egypt are expected to have their heads of state attend the peace mission. President Hakainde Hichilema ( Zambia ) ,  President Dennis Sassou Nguesso (the Republic of the Congo ), President Macky Sall ( Senegal) ,  President Yoweri Museveni (Uganda), and President  Abdel Fattah el-Sisi are expected to make their arguments for peace. Many attending are longtime leaders, with the exception of President Hichilema who has been head of state since 2021. Other African leaders cannot attend due to internal matters. Sudan and Ethiopia are dealing with both ethnic conflict and civil war. The DRC grapples with an insurgency. Having more countries in the delegation could be helpful. Ghana, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Angola, Zimbabwe, or Namibia could have joined the peace mission. The African peace mission should be deemed a positive development in European affairs. Peace will never come as long as NATO expands and the arms industry profits from the Russia-Ukraine War. The US, UK, France, and Germany want to see the conflict extended. South Africa was accused of sending weapons to Russia, but there remains to be evidence of such a transaction. It is clear that some European leaders want the peace mission to fail, for a number of reasons. Preserving the arms trade and dismantling Russia are objectives of those who want the war to escalate. What happens next depends on the terms prosed in a peace settlement.   

Germany Will Send Leopard 2 Tanks To Ukraine

 

Germany  has confirmed that it will give Ukraine more arms. What Ukraine will be getting is leopard 2 tanks. For months, the public has been told that Russia will not be successful. Now, it appears that the Russian Federation will maintain the territories in the Donbas. Russia has more tanks than Ukraine, so this will not dramatically change the situation. The only people who benefit are the arms manufacturers. The war in Ukraine has increased profits for these corporations. The Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates the devasting effects of the military industrial complex. The major concern for Germany is that they would be pushed out the arms market in Europe by the United States. Gradually, the war is escalating and might spread. Belarus or Moldova could be drawn into the conflict. Chancellor Olof Scholz stated only 14 tanks are being sent to Ukraine. It should be assumed that more will come. The US and United Kingdom are sending tanks, which indicates some economic competition. Sending more weapons prolongs the conflict and results in more loss of life. More arms come, a peace settlement becomes more unattainable. NATO does not want a peace settlement and Russia has lost patience . The conflict could last months or  years with more arms shipments.   

Fears Grow of Belarus Entering The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Belarus could play a military role in the Russia-Ukraine War. The annexations in the eastern section of Ukraine demonstrate that the Russian Federation could win the war. Sources have reported that military drills have increased in Belarus. President Alexander Lukashenko ordered Belarussian troops to deploy with Russia's forces along the Ukraine border. If Belarus is about to invade, Ukraine would have to fight in both the north and east. The response to Belarus has been the threat of sanctions. Belarus was a staging ground for Russian troops in the invasion. Belarus has not engaged in combat operations. If the war continues the country might be tempted to join. Ukraine cannot win on its own and at some stage will face partition. Belarus could be calculating which parts it would take from Ukraine. This is why a peace settlement must be reached before a larger onslaught. The attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines and Crimea indicate dramatic escalation of the conflict. Debate remains about how effective the Belarussian military would be in the war. Belarus has not been at war for 30 years. Strikes in the north of Ukraine could reduce strength of forces in the south and east. Belarus is not a NATO member, but Russia might believe in the distant future it could forced into that orbit. President Lukashenko is often presented as a puppet pressured  by the Russian Federation. If that were the case Belarus would have joined the fighting by now. Russia and Belarus are close allies, but it does not mean it does not mean the country will blindly follow. The Russian Federation has the option of building up Belarus as a counter to a NATO backed Ukraine. Belarus also acts as a buffer state against Poland and Lithuania. If Belarus enters the war, then the conflict could spread throughout Eastern Europe.   

The Russian Mobilization

 

Russian mobilization marks a turning point in the war. Ukraine could be engulfed by the Russian Federation if a peace settlement is not reached. NATO expansion is what instigated the conflict, yet few European leaders want to address the issue. The reaction inside the Russian Federation has been a growing  anti-war movement. Germany, France, and the UK ignore these protests and instead demonize the Russian population. Russia at the start of the invasion did not use their full military capability. Now there is a desire to do so. The only way for the conflict to end is to make Ukraine neutral and halt NATO expansion in Eastern Europe. Russia can easily halt all energy sales to Europe in response to arming Ukraine. Germany, France, and the UK are facing an energy crisis . Without gas and oil  the European economy is in peril. The weapons and money being shipped are not fully accounted for. Allegations have been made a majority of the weapons Ukraine requested have not reached them. The invasion was at first not about conquest. It was to aid the militias in the east. That might change if further escalation continues. The only way Russia could lose is if every NATO county attacked with the United States. These actions could trigger a nuclear exchange. A direct conflict between the United States and Russia would result in nuclear war. Russian mobilization does not mean the country is struggling. Russia is pushing to end the conflict in a few months. The intent of  NATO is to extend the conflict for several years to weaken Russia. This cannot happen if the Ukrainian military cannot defend against more forces entering its territory. The mobilization phase shows that the Russia-Ukraine war is going to get more violent.