North Korean Involvement in The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Reports have been circulating that North Korea has sent Russia troops to Ukraine. Russia and North Korea have become more close over the years. Despite the fact Russia abandoned communism in 1991, North Korea sees the Russia alliance as critical. North Korea has been forced into isolation through sanctions and the United Nations. Video was also posted showing North Korean soldiers putting on gear with Russian soldiers. The North Korean forces are allegedly active in Kursk. Ukraine launched attacks inside of Russia. As the proxy war expands, more countries will get involved. North Korea's motivation could be a way to prevent future attacks by NATO. North Korea could be subject to a NATO intervention. Another motive is to get access to Ukraine's wheat. North Korea struggles with food security. Getting access to Ukrainian wheat could solve this problem. South Korea might react by supporting Ukraine with troops. North Korea and South Korea have been in a state of war since the Cold War. That would mean the tension on the Korean peninsula would spill over into Eastern Europe. NATO and South Korea have given conflicting numbers about the total number of North Korean forces. South Korea has stated it could be a total of 12,000 North Korean forces. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte put the number at 10,000. The numbers might be exaggerated for other reasons. It might be used as a justification for EU countries to attack North Korea. North Korea entering the war does not change the status in Eastern Europe. The Russian Federation is getting closer to winning the conflict. North Korea most likely is acting as a substitute for Belarus. Belarus did not send its forces to Ukraine. North Korea possibly going there as minor auxiliary support.   

Kim Ju-ae And North Korea

 

Kim Ju-ae  is the daughter of  supreme leader Kim Jong Un. It is assumed that the head of state has three children. They rare make public appearances. Kim Ju-ae made was first seen in public in 2023. It was at a missile launch, which is not common. Images of Kim Jong Un's kids are rare. Not being seen in public could be a security measure. Kim Ju-ae being seen with her father makes some observers speculate about her being a future successor. The public appearances are more than just for propaganda. The image of a happy family can be useful to the regime. The Kim family has ruled North Korea since 1948. To a degree it is more of a dynastic monarchy, rather than a one party communist state. The Kim family does not consider itself royalty and never officially declared the government to be. The office of supreme leader is inherited. While Kim Ju-ae is still a child, Kim Jong Un could be positioning her to be the next supreme leader. The complications from this could be from siblings or a military that wants to takeover. Transitions of power might become more unstable as time goes on. If there was a collapse of North Korea, then refugees would be the result. South Korea and Japan would not be willing to provide safety. If Kim Ju-ae does become supreme leader in the future, uncertainty remains about domestic affairs and North Korea's foreign policy. 

Tension on The Korean Peninsula

 

Tensions are rising once more between North Korea and South Korea. Joint drills that South Korea conducts with the United States has only resulted in more missile launches. North Korea has conducted nuclear tests and could in the future become one of the major nuclear armed nations. The Korean War in the 20th century never resulted in peace treaty. That means both North and South Korea have been in a state of war since 1953. Japan also grows concerned with North Korea's missile launches. These weapons tend to fly over Japan or land in the ocean rather than hitting a target. Over the years tensions have occurred and then are reduced. The difference now is that sanctions, joint military drills, and the Asia pivot have made North Korea vexed. This is not about getting attention. North Korea has been on the mind of the United States for a long period of time. The country has been targeted for regime change, but the possibility of that is limited by China. A US and South Korean strike would trigger a reaction from one of Asia's most powerful nations. The failed talks over sanctions and the nuclear weapons program have resulted in a desire to ensure North Korea's security from future military intervention. The launch of ballistic missiles is more of an act of defiance to South Korea and the United States. Both the US and South Korea have been conducting a series of war games. The nuclear tests will continue as long as North Korea thinks it will be attacked by both the United States and South Korea. China does not want North Korea to become too powerful. If it does it will have another regional competitor and a country that is not dependent on it. North Korea has had a total of six nuclear tests. A seventh nuclear tests could be underway. Kim Jong Un expressed his desire to increase the strength of North Korea's military. The emphasis on missile tests and the nuclear program is just a part of that policy. 

Choe Son Hui Has Become Foreign Minister of North Korea

 

North Korea has selected a new foreign minister. Choe Son Hui will now have the position in the DPRK. The move comes as tensions are rising in Asia. Choe has experience in the diplomatic service. She was one of the major figures in nuclear negotiations  with the United States. Those talks have not advanced the reduction of tension between the two countries. North Korea could easily be caught up in the US-China competition in the Pacific. North Korea has currently embarked on an arms buildup in response to regional developments. The country has conducted nuclear tests and it should be assumed at some point it will obtain an arsenal. The reason for the nuclear program is to deter US military action. North Korea might be a target for US regime change operations. Sanctions have not stopped North Korea's nuclear programs or arms buildup. The Asia pivot policy has worsened relations between China and the US. North Korea can exploit this situation by showing it is of vital interest to China. The foreign policy vision that Choe Son Hui has is not exactly clear. Considering that she was part of earlier talks there might be a chance for an agreement. The nuclear envoy to the US did not produce favorable results. One objective of Choe Son Hui could be to get the United Nations sanctions lifted. One demand that was made last year was an end to in her words "hostile US policy." This was in response to military drills conducted with South Korea. Choe Son Hui is the first female foreign minister of North Korea. The rise indicates that women are getting more power in the regime.

Kim Yo Jong Threatens Military Action Against South Korea

North Korean and South Korean relations may be going through another phase of deterioration. Kim Yo Jong the sister of Kim Jong Un threatened military action. She accused South Korea of not advancing bilateral relations and continuing to drop anti-North Korean propaganda pamphlets in its territory. The hope was that North Korea and South Korea could reach a diplomatic agreement without external influence. For a period, it seemed like this approach was working. This is happening under the US-China rivalry based on trade and influence in Asia. The statements by Kim Yo Jong could just be rhetoric to deflect crippling sanctions that have been placed on North Korea by the United Nations and US. Her status and power seems to be increasing. Some observers have even speculated that if anything were to happen to Kim Jong Un, she would be his successor. The liaison office based in Kaesong may not reopen. It was established as a way for both nations to have diplomatic communication. The stall in nuclear agreement talks have also caused more frustration. Kim Yo Jong's words could just be empty, but there is always fear a Korean crisis could break out.  

Kim Jong Un's Health

Kim Jong Un has fallen ill and some have speculated about his condition. It would be presumptuous to assume that he is in critical condition. Kim Jong Un underwent surgery allegedly for a heart condition and has had a difficult recovery. The concern is that if he were to pass away, North Korea could become unstable. Japan would have more concern about this considering its objection to its nuclear weapons program. China also has significant investment in North Korean affairs and has sent a medical team to advise Kim. This may actually embolden the US to take more aggressive military action. The desire for regime change has never gone away, which became more intense during the Bush administration. President Obama had a policy of strategic patience, President Trump has vacillated between diplomacy and bellicose rhetoric. Besides external threats to North Korea, the question of a successor becomes a problem. So far, it has been members of the Kim family that have ruled North Korea. Commentators have stated the likely candidate could be his sister Kim Yo-Jong. At the moment it can not be certain that North Korea is going through a sudden change in leadership.    

Kim Jong Un Receives President Xi Jingping

Kim Jong Un hosted a state visit in North Korea for President Xi Jingping. It has been awhile since a Chinese leader has visited North Korea. This was more than just a mere exchange, rather a significant turning point. China may be more willing to give North Korea a higher degree of military and economic assistance. There may be several reasons for this. China may contemplate with the current tensions with Iran that the US is willing to go to war with other countries over nuclear weapons programs. That would mean North Korea could be made into a target of possible military action. Another factor is the Trump administration increasing aid and arms sales to Taiwan. President Obama was willing to do this for Taiwan and President Trump continues a the process. President Xi Jingping may see President Donald Trump's efforts at an agreement on nuclear weapons a means to undermine China's influence on the Korean peninsula. Both North and South Korea under American influence combined with a militarily stronger Taiwan poses a problem for Chinese foreign policy. Simultaneously, the US and China are engaged in a trade war. China wants to confront the US by either undermining nuclear agreement efforts or force North Korea to reconsider new negotiations. North Korea may be a way for China to show resistance to tariffs and penalties directed at Huawei. The trade war if it continues may escalate into economic warfare and by extension lead to an actual military conflict. China may also be investing more in North Korea as a counter to the US pivot to Asia. The pivot to Asia was established during the Obama administration seeking to expand American influence in the Asia-Pacific region. President Xi Jingping's meeting with Kim Jong Un was more so an expression of support and to stop US interference in Asia. Collaboration will only become strong as long as their is belligerence from a more aggressive US foreign policy. Kim Jong Un seems to have survived sanctions and threats of war. Securing China's assistance ensures that his regime will remain strong despite possible US attempts to depose him. If an agreement on nuclear weapons is to be reached it must be a bilateral affair between North and South Korea. There were rumors that Kim Jong Un wanted Xi Jingping to deliver a message to Donald Trump regarding restarting talks. So far, this has not been confirmed.    

Kim Jung Un Meets With Vladmir Putin

Russian President Vladmir Putin met with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un on Thursday, April 25. The discussions ranged from talks regarding North Korea's nuclear weapons program and economic matters. The Russian Federation has been considering investing in the Asian nation in areas such as infrastructure. What Russia has discovered is that North Korea will only relinquish its nuclear programme, if there is a guarantee that there will be no US military intervention. Secretary of State Mike Pomeo has expressed his desire to continue negotiations, but US foreign policy is more so a hindrance to a possible peace. The US focus on North Korea may not have anything to do with nuclear weapons, rather a geopolitical competition with China. North Korea is very dependent on China and it has been Chinese policy to not let it fall out of its sphere of influence. South Korea has a similar situation with the United States. The only way a solution will be realized is when both North and South Korea collaborate on common issues. Their major problem is two large powers US and China using the Korean peninsula as another battleground  in a larger war of proxy. Kim Jong Un may be attempting to use Russia as an alternative to China, if they once more vote for sanctions in the United Nations. Vladmir Putin wants to undermine US influence by getting more active in North Korea, Venezuela, and Ukraine. The Trump administration has used threats, then vague promises to encourage denuclearization. The last summit ended abruptly in Vietnam with no consensus reached. What could happen is that the Russian Federation would along with China fulfill  security pacts with North Korea in exchange for ending nuclear weapons development. The situation becomes more tense as nations look more for excuses for conflict, rather than a sustainable peace.