Showing posts with label polling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label polling. Show all posts

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Nikki Haley Ends Her Presidential Campaign

 


Nikki Haley has ended her presidential campaign. This means Donald Trump does not have an obstacle to the Republican presidential nomination. Haley's poor performance in Iowa and South Carolina indicated  the getting the Republican nomination was out of reach. The US in its 247 year history has never had a female president. It is unlikely that one would come from the Republican Party. The laws banning abortion and a general attack on women's rights has alienated women voters. Nikki Haley entering the presidential race was tainted by the fact she served as UN ambassador under the Trump administration. She attempted to present herself as an alternative to Biden and Trump. However, Nikki Haley's convictions are in alignment with the neoconservative political ideology. Haley insisted on staying in the race when the path to the nomination was not possible. Some Democrats voted for Nikki Haley. The strategy of reaching out to Democrats and independents has been done before. Donald Trump was able to get Democrats who previously voted for Obama in 2016. Nikki Haley could not replicate this method with success. Nikki Haley has not revealed whether or not she will endorse Donald Trump. President Biden responded by praising Nikki Haley. The reason for that statement is the political establishment does not want to see another Trump presidency. Political centrists of the Democratic Party would be satisfied with a Haley as long it was not Trump. Nikki Haley's loss demonstrates female politicians have little opportunities for advancement in the Republican Party.  

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Brazil's 2022 Prsidential Election

 

Brazil's presidential election has taken a fascinating turn. It has headed to a run off election. Luiz Lula Da Silva has made a political comeback seeking to return to the presidency. However, President Jair Bolsonaro performed better than the polls predicted. Polls have been under major scrutiny when it relates to election outcomes. Da Silva only got 48.4 % of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 43.23%. To win the first round a candidate needs 50%. This is why Brazil went into a run off. The challenge with electoral systems of liberal democracy is that candidates do not get enough votes to avoid a run off. Even with an independent judiciary, legal challenges to results are a concern. There remain fears that Jair Bolsonaro will not accept the election results. He has not been shy about his admiration for the military government that ruled Brazil between 1964 to 1985. Compared to other Latin American countries Brazil had stability. This has been the case throughout its history, but that might change. Even if Luiz Lula Da Silva wins, he has to face right-wing opposition. President Jair Bolsonaro  could always make a return to office in the following years. Brazil's elections represents the wave of right-wing movements coming to power starting in the late 2000s. Who ever wins will also effect Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua.