Mali and Rwanda Are Entering A Bilateral Diplomatic Relationship

 

Rwanda and Mali have signed a number of agreements.. President Paul Kagame is extending his influence to other parts of Africa. The Sahel and West Africa are becoming a priority. The agreements were related to health, investment, and agriculture. Prior to this, there were already agreements related to security. Mali has a reason to welcome the series of 19 agreements. When the military regime under Assimi Goita  took power there was threat of an ECOWAS invasion. General Assimi is circumventing that possibility by reaching out to other African countries. This puts the African Union in a difficult position. They would have trouble isolating a military regime that has the support of a longtime leader. All the Sahel  military regimes that came to power in the early 2020s have formed an alliance. The alliance was designed to stop an invasion similar to Gambia in 2017. President Paul Kagame realizes that many longtime leaders are being deposed. Gabon's coup was taken into consideration. If President Paul Kagame gets close to the new regimes it might insulate him from a similar fate. Simultaneously, it can be a way for Rwanda to get vengeance on France. The frustration comes from the fact that France supported the Juvenal Habyarimana regime, which persecuted the Tutsi population. This was the government that the Rwandan Patriotic Front was fighting. President Paul Kagame has accused France of having a role in the 1994 genocide. Now that France is being forced out the Sahel, Rwanda wants to replace it in Mali. The bilateral diplomatic relationship will continue to grow based on regional conditions. Assimi Goita and Paul Kagame are ensuring political survival in a rapidly changing Africa.   

Hillary Clinton Disparages Student Protesters

 

Hillary Clinton has expressed her distain for student protesters. Across the country university students are voicing their discontent with US support for Israel's war on Gaza. Appearing on MSNBC the former Secretary of State asserted the students did not understand history of the Middle East. The commentary was condescending and represents the arrogance of the foreign policy establishment. To call all student protesters uninformed is an insult to the universities they attend. Her attitude is common of the baby boomer generation and political centrist who do not acknowledge other perspectives. Most Americans understand that Israel was built up as an outpost to enforce US foreign policy in West Asia. Regime change in the Middle East and North Africa has resulted in the current instability. Arming terrorist organizations in Syria, invading Iraq, and bombing Libya caused a refugee crisis. Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State was involved in the coup in Honduras, the strikes in Syria, and the removal of Qaddafi in Libya. Her actions  can best be described as war crimes. Prior to these statements, Clinton offered to help the Biden campaign. Based on her comments, President Biden should distance herself from Hillary Clinton. The polls show that President Biden is struggling with the youth vote. Antagonizing university students makes reelection more difficult. Hillary Clinton ignores the fact that the William Jefferson Clinton administration failed to obtain a peace settlement. The 2000 Camp David Summit did not produce any meaningful results.  The Jimmy Carter administration was able to produce a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. Since 1978 the Camp David Accords have held, but the future is looking less certain. Hillary Clinton's statements do not only reflect ignorance, but a disdain for those who have concerns regarding human rights in Palestine.   

The Failed Coup In The DRC

 

The Democratic Republic of the Congo foiled a coup. A number of African nations have been experiencing coups in the 2020s. The difference with the DRC was that it was not against a longtime regime. During this coup attempt, the presidential palace was attacked. The leader of this coup was Christian Malanga. He was killed during the coup attempt according to authorities in the DRC. Video shown shows the group with flags of the former Zaire. Those who were in the coup group appear to have nostalgia for the Joseph Mobutu dictatorship. Christian Malanga was involved in opposition politics and gold mining prior to the coup attempt. Malanga based on the information gathered was a refugee who settled in the United States. This was in the 1990s when Zaire was falling into civil war. His political activities were working for the United Congolese Party. The political party has been described as a movement to remove the current government. Questions have arisen about possible US involvement in the plot. No evidence has been uncovered of a CIA operation. Three American were allegedly were part of the coup group. The DRC is facing challenges from M23 rebels, Rwanda, and external powers seeking to exploit its natural resources. The coup attempt no matter how small was a demonstration of political instability. When this transpired political factionalism had reached record levels in the DRC. The New Zaire Government in Exile another organization wanted to revert the DRC to the years of 1971 to 1997. If enough evidence is gathered it could implicate the New Zaire Government in  Exile as being an accomplice to the coup.  

Idi Amin Proposes An OAU Force To Fight European Colonial Imperialism (1973)

 

Idi Amin proposed the Organization of African Unity create an armed force. The Ugandan leader suggested this force liberate African territory still under European colonial imperialism. Namibia, Angola, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Sinai Peninsula lost by Egypt were areas of concern. The OAU force Idi Amin proposed be modeled along the lines of NATO or the Warsaw Pact. A large military defensive  alliance would show France and the UK Africans could fight back. An OAU force was not a terrible idea, but Idi Amin's intentions were not altruistic. Idi Amin most likely wanted to extend Uganda's influence over all of Africa at the expense of other OAU members. His government was a military dictatorship and that brought into question the desire for liberation of the people of Africa. The declining relations with Tanzania also would be an obstacle to a OAU force proposal. Uganda and Tanzania would go to war. By 1979 Idi Amin was deposed and the OAU force did not materialize. The African Union however would develop the African Standby Force (ASF) in the early 2000s.   

Iran President Ebrahim Raisi Dies In Helicopter Crash

 

The IRNA news agency reported that President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash. The others identified in the accident also included foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian. There is no indication this was an assassination plot. The investigation so far believed that the signal system to the helicopter was turned off. Some have speculated that the helicopter they were in did not have one. The perplexing element of this incident is why a plane was not used. Iran currently is mourning the loss of government officials. The president of Iran is head of government. The Supreme Leader is the head of state. This means foreign policy and domestic affairs will not be changing. Ebrahim Raisi was thought to be a potential successor Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Ali Khamenei is now 85 years old and one of the longest ruling heads of state in the region. At some point his rule will come to an end. An interim president is now in place. The government of Iran has an aging leadership. Most in foreign affairs or the Supreme Leader role are age 60 and over. Before his death President Ebrahim Raisi was visiting the Iran-Azerbaijan border. Meeting with President Ilham Aliyev it was for the celebration of a finished dam on the Aras River. The inauguration ceremony was designed to show appreciation for stronger diplomatic relations between the two countries. International pressures brought a theocratic government in alliance with a secular authoritarian regime. Iran's relationship with Azerbaijan is similar to the partnership with Syria. After a long search authorities were able to uncover the crash site. Elections for a new head of government is getting under way. An election of a new president is set to happen in 50 days.    

How The Russia-Ukraine War Ends

 The Russia-Ukraine War broke out in 2022. This was an extension of the internal civil war which continued to escalate. The destabilization of Eastern Europe was not an accident. The failure to adhere to the Minsk Accords enabled a bigger war and the opportunity to add more NATO members. Sweden and Finland are on the way to being new partners. Neoconservatives thought the Russian Federation would be weakened by a conflict on its border. The long term objective was to balkanize the country and make it lose its diplomatic connections to other countries. As the war progressed the delusional belief was that Ukraine could cause a major Russian defeat. Ukraine does not have the capability to defeat Russia. The US, UK, France, and Germany tried to convince the public that Russian defeat was inevitable. Observers of military affairs understood that this was not realistic. More weapons and funds are sent to Ukraine despite defeats and stalemates. Unless all of Europe goes to war with US assistance, the outcome will not be what the West intended. France has implied that it might be willing to send forces to Ukraine. The energy crisis and economic challenges has made the European public disgruntled. The public would be unwilling to fight a war for the sake of a neo-colonial imperial goal. Sending NATO forces in Ukraine would drag the United States further into the conflict. NATO forces have been reported to be stationed at the Ukrainian embassy. It is unclear the number of foreign forces inside Ukraine as of 2024. Ukraine is going to be defeated. When that happens depends on various factors. Wars could last for months or go on for years. The Russian intervention at some point will end. How the war ends can result in a number of outcomes. The Russian Federation could absorb all of Ukraine. Russia either retreats in the face of a combined US-NATO invasion. The more likely result is a peace settlement and the boundaries of Eastern Europe remain the same. 

       When Russia invaded the narrative was a  war of conquest. Russia invaded to support the militias fighting in the Donbass. The failure of  the second Minsk Accord cause the resumption of the civil war. If the 2014 coup never occurred, there would not have been a Russian military intervention. The narrative is that Russia is recreating the Soviet Union. Such an analysis does not take into account geopolitical realities. If the Soviet Union was to be revived Central Asia would have to be incorporated first. The region has more natural resources in comparison to Eastern Europe and the Baltic. The Russian Federation has no intention of restoring a one party communist state. Russia has embraced neoliberal capitalism. The dominance of the oligarchs shows the devasting effects of corporate avarice  and economic shock therapy from the 1990s. The narrative of a Soviet Union revival is more of historical fiction. Others active in geopolitical circles claim that  President Vladimir Putin aims to revive  the Russian Empire. To revive a Russian Empire, China would have to be neutralized. The People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation are moving toward an official military alliance. These actions do not indicate a revival  of  the Soviet Union and Russian Empire. Ukraine would not be a starting  point to build a Eurasian empire. Based on the events in 2023, Russia's goal was not to incorporate Ukraine. The long term objective is to halt NATO expansion getting closer to its borders. 

Russia is not attempting to force Ukraine into its territory. NATO secretary general Jen Stolenberg  admitted the war is not about saving Ukraine. Rather the Russia-Ukraine War was to justify expanding the military alliance. Stolenberg stated " the background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty  that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO entanglement." Russia is not invading Western Europe. NATO is becoming a more aggressive presence not only in Europe, but around the globe. This explains why Russia continues to support Belarus to counter Ukraine. The reason President Alexander Lukashenko allowed Russian forces stationed in the country. Belarus could be a target of NATO in the future. The alliance with Russia is designed to prevent a foreign military intervention . Whatever conquest would happen would be irridentist absorption of ethnic Russian population. Russia is not using Ukraine as launching center to invade all of Europe. 

      The most concerning outcome is a NATO war. This NATO war would involve all members to fight in Ukraine. The precarious nature  of this is possible nuclear war. A NATO-Russia war would involve the United States. Both the Russian Federation and the United States of America have massive nuclear arsenals. Russia does not want article 5 to be invoked. Without the INF Treaty there is no precautionary measures. A NATO-Russia war would either be Germany, France, and the UK sending soldiers to Ukraine. As Russia gets closer to Kiev they would be sent to prevent Ukraine's collapse. What neoconservatives hoped was that the Russia-Ukraine War would induce a Russian fall. The Russian-Ukraine War would then morph into a conflict into a balkanization. If Russia's defeat in Ukraine was immensely devastating it could create  a situation similar to the 1991 U.S.S.R collapse or the break-up of Yugoslavia. The Russian Federation would be divided into multiple successor states. Ukraine is not going to be able to push Russia back. The Russian Federation's economy and armed forces are too stable to induce dissolution. However, a US-NATO invasion could cause the Russian Federation to collapse. If such a war to take place there would be nuclear engagement. The end of the INF Treaty makes the situation extremely precarious. The conflict would be on the scale of a world war and possibly merge existing conflicts. A NATO war if Russia lost would mean it would break into a number of fragments. European Russia would be separated from Asian Siberia. NATO after a massive war would occupy the new polities. While the Ukrainian Civil War morphed into a Ukraine-Russia confrontation, turning into a Russia-NATO is not likely. The US, France, and the UK find it easier to keep the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a war of proxy. Financing, production of arms, and public support are going to be strained. The "stand with Ukraine" public relations effort cannot survive when people must be drafted, taxes have to be increased, and inflation from the energy crisis remain obstructions. Destabilizing the whole Eurasian landmass contains too many complications. Neoconservatives as another alternative geostrategy could seek to just reduce Russian national power. A weak Russian Federation means there is no opposition to the US-European Union bloc. A US-NATO invasion of Russian will not happen due to the difficulties of sustaining combat operations. 

       A peace settlement is possible. Russia prior to the conflict wanted to have a discussion with the United States about security guarantees. President Vladmir Putin discussed being open to dialogue. The announcement was given at his presidential inauguration. A number of towns and villages  are falling to Russian forces.  The northeast is witnessing an offensive. Simultaneously, Ukrainian soldiers are deserting and  filling positions become more difficult. Ukrainian refugees that are in other parts of Europe have no intention of  returning.  Ukraine has sent drones into Russia. These have had no effect because they are not hitting military targets. Russian citizens are at risk, but it has killed very few. Acts of terrorism will not change the events happening in the eastern  or the northeastern front. The invasion has evolved into a war of attrition. Despite all the arms to Ukraine, expulsion of Russian forces is not achievable. The Russian Federation will be closer to Kiev and capture it. Assuming the fighting continues with  guerilla warfare  tactics  or armed resistance, it will be over. The Russian offensive has caused 1,700 Ukrainians to flee. Civilians are not as likely to remain and take up arms. Ukraine's military attempted an counteroffensive in 2023. The June operation did not produce a tactical victory or shorten the war. Ukraine's military has deteriorated from a war of attrition. Under this pressure either the government or military will collapse. Ukraine might  request a peace settlement to avoid further deaths. President Volodymyr Zelensky was thinking about discussing peace with Russia, until Prime Minister  Boris Johnson convinced him not to. Seeing as the path to victory is narrow, Russians will probably dictate most of the peace terms. Removing President Zelensky is not going to be part of  a peace treaty. If Russia wanted they could have assassinated him by an airstrike. The reason they do not do this is because the more far-right extremists would takeover. A recreation of 2014 would mean another cycle of attacks and ethnic cleansing in the Donbas. The agreement would dictate that Ukraine has a neutral status or does not become a member of NATO. Either the Donbas becomes independent or seeks to join the Russian Federation through referendum. Russia's ownership of Crimea must be recognized under the peace agreement. These are the possible terms that Ukraine would have to accept after defeat. The map of Europe is not going to drastically change. Based on the Russo-Georgian  War in 2008, Ukraine does not have to fear losing its independence. Georgia lost some territory, but was not incorporated into Russia. Ukraine could lose Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia. Those two provinces may even try to become their own states. Ukraine would object to this, but have no choice to acknowledge the peace terms.

     Peace should be the preferred outcome. Even if established, Eastern Europe will not be the same. Ukraine during the civil war and the Russia-Ukraine War has become more authoritarian. President Volodymyr  Zelensky has postponed elections even though his term is set to expire. He might cling to power using a state of emergency justification. Just because the war comes to an end does not mean rights will be respected. Ukraine at the moment is not a member of NATO. Instead it will be further militarized by the European Union. More tanks, planes, and guns are going to sent to Ukraine, because the arms industry sees it as an investment. Ukraine has amassed large debt from the war. The countries that provided financial assistance are not going to allow debt cancellation. Ukraine will be at the mercy of the UK. France, Germany, and the United States. Russia's influence is not undermining Ukraine's sovereignty; the West is. The Ukraine project in terms of military goals  has been a failure. Russia did not fall or become weaker. To avoid condemnation, the narrative is being adjusted. The escalation of the war is going to be presented as a preemptive measure. The West halted Russian expansion into Europe. The dishonest assertion ignores the fact that the catalyst was adding more NATO members. NATO is not seeking a defensive strategy, rather an anti-Russian military alliance. Any country that has armed forces coming closer to its borders will react. The mistake of the Russian Federation was being provoked into intervention in the Ukrainian Civil War. The war of proxy that is occurring might not produce the results belligerents desire. The war caused more countries to join NATO. The United States has not been able to destabilize or produce regime change in Russia. When peace does come the relations between countries shall be altered. Ukraine and Belarus are going to have worse diplomatic relations. Russia is going to invest more in building Belarus militarily as a counter to Ukraine. A peace treaty can be made, but this will not shield the region from the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War. Refugees, damaged infrastructure, and far-right extremist violence are going to be persistent issues.               

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico Hospitalized

 

Robert Fico is in critical condition after being shot at a political rally. This was an apparent assassination attempt. The reasons for the attempted assassination are yet to be revealed. The news of Prime Minister Robert Fico's hospitalization is causing concern in Europe. The continent is becoming more unstable and this assassination attempt demonstrates instability could spread to France , the UK, and Germany. Prime Minister Robert Fico has been a longtime figure in Slovakian politics. He first served as prime minister from 2006 to 2010. Fico returned to office a second time from 2012 to 2018. The Smer Party is considered on the left. However, this does not mean Fico was unwilling to work with leaders such as Viktor Orban. The Hungarian prime minister's politics are more far-right in comparison. The reason Fico might have been attacked was because of his desire to make peace with Russia. Prime Minister Fico did not want to arm Ukraine. The more conservative and pro-NATO elements of Slovakia began to protest. The shoot according to Slovakian reports was a 71 year old man. The motivation remains unclear. Some speculate the culprit was vexed at the election outcome last October. Slovakia does not have a history of political violence. Parliament concerned about growing violence decided to suspend debate. A date has not been given for resumption of duties. Slovakia is heading to an era of extreme political polarization. The assassination attempt is going to divide the public even more.   

The AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Withdrawn From Use

 

The AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine has been withdrawn from use. The reason is that its vaccine can cause the side effect of blood clots. Some reports reveal that it can also cause low blood platelet counts. Blood platelets are also known as thrombocytes. These cell fragments do repairs to the body when injured to stop bleeding. After three years of saying side effects were minimal the evidence shows otherwise. Defective vaccines were put out into the market. Vaccinations should not cause other health issues. The lack of business regulation is to blame for the negligence of  pharmaceutical corporations. Class action lawsuits have been filed in the UK against AstraZeneca. The fact that people can get vaccine injured brings into question the policy of vaccine mandates. If employees get sick from a vaccine they are required to take, then that company is liable. The AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine was distributed to 150 countries. The exact number of people who were vaccine injured is not known. There is no indication that it cause long term permanent health damage. Although getting thrombosis or thrombocytopenia should not be deemed insignificant. The World Health Organization also confirmed in 2021 that there could be adverse side effects from the AstraZeneca vaccine. This was not a condemnation, rather they claimed it was rare and not a serious concern. It becomes apparent that excuses were being made for egregious errors. Mainly it could be to protect Oxford University, which was a collaborator in developing the vaccine. Along with the Serum Institute, they made it possible for to exist. The side effects cannot be dismissed if the company is now ending production of the vaccine. The AstraZeneca highlights the need for more regulation of pharmaceutical corporations.   

Mahamat Deby Consolidates Power In Chad

Chad held a  presidential election. The outcome was as most observers predicted with military ruler Mahamat Deby winning most of the vote. The legitimacy has been questioned by political opposition. Chad is transforming into a country of dynastic rule. Although a military regime it has similarities to Togo and Gabon. One family is going to rule Chad for a number of years. If Idriss Deby was not killed by rebels he would still be president. The rule of the Deby's began in 1990. Chad continues to be an ally of France. However, with the French exit from Mali and Niger a void will grow. Chad could become a more powerful regional player in the Sahel. President Mahamat Deby might establish closer diplomatic relations with Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali. A common enemy of rebel groups and terrorist organization would bring these countries together in an alliance. According to the results Mahamat won 61.3 % of the vote. The dispute was that the elections were not free or fair. African Union observers were not present. President Mahamat Deby does not have absolute control. He remains reliant on a ruling coalition. The military has immense influence over government. Algeria and Egypt also have this obstacle and at times coups occurred. If Mahamat maintains the support of the military his leadership will be secured. The 2022 crackdown forced some Chadians to flee abroad. Those suspected of involvement  in the assassination of Idriss Deby are among the Chadians that left. Most assume that foreign policy and internal matters will remain the same. Developments in Sudan and the relations with France will force a change in direction. Chad's transformation into a dynastic based system of government is the most noticeable.  

 

The Development of The Tungsten Encased Nuclear Reactor

 

A new fusion record has been set by the tungsten tokamak WEST. The development of tungsten encased nuclear fusion reactors could become a more efficient method of energy generation. The device located at the Princeton Physics Plasma Laboratory was able to hold hot fusion  plasma at 50 million degrees Celsius for six minutes. In order to generate power for a grid, the plasma has to be hot and dense. If the research continues, there might be fusion reactors that will be commercially available. The efforts of the Coordination on International on Long Duration Operation have produced favorable results.  Prior to this experiments did utilized graphite titles. The device that used that material was the Tore Supra. Tungsten is favorable because it retains less fuel. However, the limitation is that it cane make the plasma cool. Keeping a certain amount of heat is needed for energy generation. Technological barriers and physics challenges do prevent fusion reactors from being used for power. Tokamak WEST will require more adjustments to be able to be connected to a large power grid. The tungsten walls are going to be the most important development in nuclear technology. As fusion reactors advance further, considerations for tungsten mining should be made. China, the United Kingdom, Rwanda , Vietnam, and Russia are going to have to increase tungsten mining. These countries are the major producers of the element. Production would have to increase dramatically if fusion reactors are going into regular use. At the moment the machinery requires more advancement. The news demonstrates that fusion reactors are not theoretical. The devices have reached a phase of applied science.  

The Paris 2024 Olympics Will Begin July 26th

 

The summer games will be held in Paris. France does have internal difficulties related to the economy and domestic politics. Labor disputes and the controversy over retirement age are still ongoing. The 2024 Olympics is not going to be isolated from international events. Russia and Belarus are being treated differently from other countries. The reason is due to the Russia-Ukraine War. The measures taken could be argued as discriminatory. The IOC has stated that Russian and Belarusian athletes cannot compete as neutrals or individuals. Belarus has not engaged in any combat operations against Ukraine. It did allow Russian troops to move through its territory, but no Belarussians did not invade. The IOC measure  is discrimination based on national origin. No such restrictions would be placed on the UK, France, or US for NATO action in Libya or Afghanistan. Double standards and contradictions will cast a shadow over the Olympics. This will make it more difficult to make the Olympics politically neutral. Europe is no longer going to be stable. The IOC should then think about getting either African, Latin American, or Asian cities to host. France might think that hosting the games will provide an economic boost. While tourism can do this, the games last for only a certain time frame. The amount of labor to build stadiums and infrastructure does create jobs. Yet, that gain in the construction sector is temporary. The Olympics only can be of value in improving France's international image. This might not work due to the actions in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The sports spectators are going to be seeing more than just athletic events. Tension between nations is going to be present. Israel's participation will generate objection. The IOC might in the future try to ban China or Iran. France hosting the Olympic games creates complications beyond its borders.   

President Bassirou Diomaye Faye's Political Goals For Senegal

 

Senegal has elected a new president. The agenda is going to be much different than the previous administration. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye expressed his desire to strengthen democratic institutions and enhance  diplomatic relations with other African countries. His ideology seems to be closer to a Pan-Africanist vision. The first measures of the new administration is an audit of the gas, oil, and mining sectors. The motivation for the audit is to detect possible corruption and to ensure that Senegal's natural resources are not being exploited by foreign entities. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye gave a promise to investors that they are still welcomed in Senegal. Senegal is about to accelerate with oil production. The Sangomar gas and oil project  has been developing offshore oil drilling sites. The new administration has also expressed the need to defend Senegalese sovereignty. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye's major goal is to achieve African unity. This dream was what many African leaders were aiming for in the 1960s. The longtime heads of state on the continent have abandoned Pan-Africanism. Warfare in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Somalia undermine Pan-African goals. There is hope considering President Faye is now one of Africa's youngest heads of state. The election result shows that a new generation of African leaders are emerging. While others cling to power, there is a growing sentiment for political change. How effective policies and reforms are depends on the leadership and resources available.