Armenians Flee Nagorno-Karabakh

 

Armenians are now fleeing the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan has escalated and is evolving into ethnic conflict. Nagorno-Karabakh's population is majority Armenian and Azerbaijan sees it as part of it territory. A  de facto government was in place, but few nations recognized Nagorno-Karabakh's independence. Azerbaijan is set to take over the break away region and there is speculation more areas could be seized. Reports of ethnic violence have been circulating. Armenians are left with two choices. Either stay in Nagorno-Karabakh and accept being citizens of Azerbaijan. The other option is to flee to Armenia. The fear of reprisals has made Armenians want to leave. Crackdowns are going to follow in an effort to bring the region back into Azerbaijan. Russia at one time sent a peacekeeping force to the region. Some do remain, but the situation in Europe means Russia will not focus on the South Caucasus.  The military action will only increase the power of President Ilham Aliyev. The conquest also has implications for Armenia's own security. Turkey and Azerbaijan are allies. Both countries have an ethnic hatred of Armenians. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did offer to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan. The condition was that the Armenian population would have their right protected and would not face racial discrimination. The peace offer was rejected. The first war lasted from 1988 to 1994. The following conflicts emerged from the power void left after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The war in 2020 resulted in a ceasefire. The conditions in 2023 were different considering Prime Minister Pashinyan is facing massive opposition. The refugees are a symbol of Armenia's defeat by an enemy. Armenian refugees now face the challenge of getting resettled in other aeras. 

Haiti Could Be Invaded By Kenya

 

An African nation could be invading a Latin American country. The United States has convinced Kenya to sign a defense agreement to deploy troops in Haiti. The justification of  stopping gang violence and lawlessness has been used for an invasion. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed the agreement with Kenya's Defense Minister Aden Dulae. Kenya would be leading the mission into Haiti. The multinational force is not about restoring order or human rights protection. The United States is using other nations to be regional enforcers in Latin America. The intent is to keep an unpopular regime in power. Prime Minister Ariel Henry requested assistance from the international community to save his government. The United Nations has been supportive of military intervention. All the the UN missions in Haiti have left the country in a worse condition. The reason military intervention has not occurred sooner is because few countries want to volunteer. The only way to stop a military strike is if the UN Security Council does not approve a mandate. The way of hiding imperial designs is by having Global South nations engage in most of the fighting. The optics of  European countries occupying Haiti would increase suspicion of intent. Kenya has been involved in missions in Kosovo, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This is why the US reached out to Kenya. The interest in Haiti is in the untapped naturals resources in its territory. Iridium and gold are present in the country. Haiti has oil, but all of the sites are not fully explored. Natural gas potential has not been unlocked either. The reason Haiti is attacked by various nations is due to its wealth. Destabilization, corrupt government, and foreign occupation hinder economic development. A Kenyan led military mission will cause another humanitarian crisis in which Haiti cannot not recover from. What Kenya does in Haiti could cause controversy on the African continent itself.      

Paul Kagame Seeking A Fourth Term

 

President Paul Kagame is going to run for a fourth term. Doing this is no shock considering the 2015 constitutional amendment . For two decades Rwandan politics has been dominated by one president.  The difference now is the African continent has been turning against longtime leaders and those deemed as puppets of  the West. Gabon, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Sudan have seen leaders deposed. Rwanda has had the same president since the year 2000. The presidential terms are seven years. This means Paul Kagame could remain in office up until 2034. Some suspect that another constitutional amendment could be made in the coming years. The end of presidential term limits would mean Paul Kagame could be president for life. The Green Party seeks to defeat him at the polls, but the Rwandan Patriotic Party has a powerful grip on the political system. Frank Habineza is seeking to become Rwanda's next president. The invention in Mozambique, the Rwandan asylum plan, and the status of relations with Uganda are going to be pivotal topics in the election. There is considerable controversy about the Rwandan government's support for the M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of The Congo. The concern is that Ugandan and Rwandan involvement in the DRC could create a wider regional conflict. The DRC and Ugandan forces have fought the Allied Democratic Forces. Armed groups and longtime leaders are making the region more unstable. There is the fear of what  would happen with the end of  the Paul Kagame era. This explains why voters might support him, even with  growing diplomatic concerns and military engagements.  

The Rise of Global Flooding

 

Flooding has become more lethal in various nations. Libya, Brazil, Greece, and China saw major floods. The disaster in Libya was of concern seeing as it was a country with low flood risk. Climate change does not just create heatwaves. It can make heavy rains more powerful. Combined with rising sea levels coastal arears will be effected the most. Derna Libya was vulnerable because the storm known as Daniel moved in from the Mediterranean Sea. The dams and infrastructure has fallen into a poor condition since the civil war. Turkey was also struck by heavy rainstorms. Many countries have not modeled emergency preparedness in relation to climate change. Various cities do not have the infrastructure needed to protect against such storms and flooding. The refusal to explore alternative energy or  end the use of fossil fuels means flooding will be more frequent. The aftermath of such natural disasters is homelessness, loss of life, and  financial efforts to repair the damaged properties. Government and corporations are not going to change policy on fossil fuel use and climate policy. The only result will be social and political problems that come with flooding. At some point it might force people to leave their countries. Weather warning systems and infrastructure have to be updated frequently. Otherwise, there could be populations that are refugees as a result of climate change. More data must be collect to analyze patterns and see were other floods could occur next.    

Josep Borrell Refers To The Global South As A Jungle (2022)

 

Josep Borrell serves as the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Borrell in 2022 stated that "Europe is a garden" then compared the rest of the world to a jungle. The analogy was a common racist trope. Borrell's statements were directed at Africa, Asia, and South America. The image that he presented was one of invading immigrant hordes destabilizing Europe. Many European politicians ignore why the Global South is in such a condition. The NATO invasion of Libya caused the migrant crisis. Venezuela is being targeted for regime change. Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria were invaded. The arms industry promotes conflict to increase profits. His statement also present a false image of Europe being a paradise. The UK and France are facing economic difficulties. Public discord, xenophobic nativist nationalism, and civil disturbance are more prevalent. Borrell represents what the political elite truly feel about Global South nations. The European Union's inability to foster batter diplomatic relations with African and Asian nations is rooted in attitudes such as Borrell's. Overtime Europe's racism and prejudice will isolate it from the world.  

United Auto Workers Go On Strike

 

More labor strikes are becoming common. The automotive industry is now seeing workers protest their grievances. The UAW are on strike and it is entering its third day. Without a settlement, this could have negative consequences for the US economy. Corporate avarice has driven workers to protest. This is the largest strike in the automotive industry's history. A total of 13,000 automotive workers have joined the movement. The United Automobile, Aerospace , and Agricultural Implement Workers of America has an estimated 400,000 members and 580,000 retired members. The corporations effected are the three major one in the United States. Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis refused to meet the demands of employees. What the UAW seeks is increased benefits for retirees, limiting the use of temporary workers, paid leave, cost of living allowance, a pension benefit, reduced work hours, and a 40% wage increase related to contracts. The cost of living allowance demand is an obvious symptom of inflation caused by the conditions in  Europe. Another pressing matter is the right of workers to strike against closing plants. The labor  strikes are active in Ohio, Michigan, and Missouri. The CEOs of the car corporations are seeing their  pay increase, while auto workers are struggling. The government tends to side in favor of the corporate elite, rather than the average worker. Frustration has been building across the country over economic inequality and unchecked power of business. The Biden administration's poor handing of the railroad worker strike demonstrates a limited support for organized labor. The UAW does have a solution to protect auto workers. The strike fund can provide workers pay. Depending on how long the labor strikes last and inflation it might not be enough. The strike pay fund is estimated to be $825,000,000. 

A Major Goal of The New Development Bank

 

The New Development Bank has outlined major objectives in the coming years. The focus will be on Africa. The NDB founded by BRICS wants to see changes in the global economy. The New Development Bank will finance infrastructure and digital projects. Investments will also be made in education. Such a policy makes sense considering the jobs of the future will require more skills and knowledge. A fourth industrial revolution is coming and the Global South should not be left behind. The African continent has large amounts of natural resources. This means it is a significant force in the world market. NDB President Dilma Rousseff  noted that direct foreign investment in Africa went from 4.9% in 2010 to 8.8 % in 2021. Rousseff described African nations as  quality partners. The challenges that remain are related to expanding payment mechanisms Rousseff added. Cooperation, stability of the continent, and banking procedures remain persistent obstacles. Economic growth is not slowing down in Africa. The result of this is that the New Development Bank's importance will be elevated. 

Gabon's Government Says Ali Bongo Is Free From House Arrest

 

Ali Bongo according to the government is allowed to move freely. The president of Gabon prior to this released a video in which he asked for assistance. The video was not a political prisoner asking for help, rather an indirect message for military intervention. Ali Bongo assumed that France would come to restore him to office. France is the reason the Bongo family has remained in power for half a century. The government states that he was released on medical grounds. Ali Bongo is free to go abroad for medical check-ups. What it sounds like is that the government is encouraging exile. Some might have the desire to see the Bongo family prosecuted for crimes that took place for the past 55 years. The country is not entire free of the family. The current president Brice Nguema is a cousin of Bongo. This is the reason why Ali Bongo might not be charged or remain incarcerated. Ali Bongo does have health concerns considering he did suffer a stroke five years ago. The Nguema government does not want to be accused of trying to worsen Ali Bongo's health. The coup was a bloodless one and there is no desire to have a civil war. A trial might not happen. Enough evidence has to be gathered to expose wrong doing. While there is evidence of kleptocracy, Bongo loyalists might still have an influence on the criminal justice system. Ali Bongo could remain free and unpunished. The Bongos could face charges such as embezzlement, electoral fraud, and  human rights abuse. 

Representative Barbara Lee Votes Against The Afghanistan War (2001)

 

US Representative Barbara Lee was one of the few congress members to vote against the authorization of force against Afghanistan. The 9/11 attacks made the public and government vexed as well as frightened. An invasion Lee stated would not reduce international terrorism. If Al-Qaeda was a large network, it would not matter which country was invaded. The Taliban did not order the attacks and the culprits were not even from Afghanistan. Barbara Lee throughout here political career as opposed military intervention. The video of this vote is a warning about the military industrial complex and its influence over US foreign policy. The US-Afghan War was one of America's longest conflicts. The result was a defeat and the return of the Taliban to power. The question remains why does Lee continue to be part of a Democratic Party that does not value peace. This issue will continue to divide the Democratic Party.  

The Status of Togo

 

The change in government in Gabon will have an influence over Togo. Togo also shares a border with Burkina Faso, which has a new military regime. President Faure Gnassingbe has been the Togolese head of state since 2005. Since 1967 one family has ruled Togo. Gabon and Togo are similar in this regard. The sons inherited the presidency from their fathers. The northern region has become more unstable with infiltration of terrorist groups. Part of this was the reason for the drastic change in state security. The ministry of the armed forces became part of the presidency. The intent is not about fighting terrorist organizations or armed groups. The policy established in 2022 was designed to secure the power of the Gnassingbe family. The measure was a presidential decree to ensure President Faure Gnassingbe remains in power. The state will become more authoritarian in the face of changing governments in the region. Political opposition is not strong enough to vote President Faure Gnassingbe out of office. Demonstrations were held in 2017 and 2018. These had little effect on the government. If ECOWAS actually does intervene in Niger, Togo would probably support it. The hope is that if there was a coup in Togo, ECOWAS would come to the aid of President Gnassingbe. A conflict would draw Benin in as well, while destabilizing Ghana and Nigeria. The parliament approved the constitutional change which would allow Faure to remain in office to 2030. The next election would be in 2025 and terms are a total of five years. President Faure Gnassingbe could  convince the parliament to eliminate term limits completely. Considering the changes to the security apparatus, it appears Faure will not be subject to removal like other longtime leaders in West Africa. The presidential election of 2025 could tear the Togo apart. The Gnassingbe family's grip on power is similar to the governments  of Syria, North Korea, Chad,  and Cambodia. One family has dominance over the nation's politics. Togo as the years pass could be built up as a bulwark against the newly formed military regimes in West Africa.