African Union Attempts To Solve The South Sudan Crisis

 

South Sudan could be falling into civil war. The African Union has sent mediators to avert the crisis. This is not the first time the African Union was involved in Sudan. There was an AU mission in Darfur. The current crisis was sparked by the Neur White Army. The escalation went further with the arrest Riek Machar. The basis of the arrest was that Machar was connected to the Neur White Army. The new tension has an ethnic element with Neur and Dinka. Most of the current fighting is occurring in the Upper Nile state. The African union mediators want to see the 2018 peace deal remain in place. The reason for the concern is that a South Sudanese civil war would merge with other conflicts. Chad and Ethiopia would be effected by refugees fleeing fighting. Uganda also is a major factor in regional power. President Yoweri Museveni came to Juba to express support for President Salva Kiir Mayadit. Uganda is exploiting the internal struggles to gain more influence in East Africa. The third Sudanese Civil War has reverberated with the flow of arms into South Sudan. President Salva Kiir Mayadit has been the only head of state since 2011. Power sharing was not going to work in a political system that is authoritarian. The African Union requested that Riek Machar's release, yet the government refuses to meet such as demand. More efforts for diplomatic solutions are being made. 

Earthquake Strike Myanmar and Thailand

 

Myanmar and Thailand have experienced devasting earthquakes. Natural disasters produce a series of long term problems for public health, infrastructure, and housing. Homelessness will increase as a result of destroyed buildings. The military regime in Myanmar has no plans to address the concern of people who lost their homes. Reports estimate that the deaths in Myanmar are 1,600. The number could increase as more debris is cleared. Thailand's capital was damaged from the earthquake. Roads and bridges were also destroyed from the natural disaster. Rebuilding infrastructure is going to require major investments. Myanmar and Thailand might struggle to generate the funds for reconstruction. The military regime also is hostile to external contact. Hospitals are overwhelmed with the injured. The earthquake reveals the need to engineer earthquake resistant buildings. The earthquake was so powerful that skyscrapers in Bangkok were mot spared. The reason Myanmar is so susceptible to earthquakes relates to its location. It is located on a convergence area of the Earth's four major tectonic plates. Myanmar rests on the Sagaing fault. This explains why Mandalay was hit with immense force. Buildings that are older are going to be more vulnerable to collapse. Thailand's older buildings do not meet the safety construction standard. Vigorous earthquake protection for buildings must be required by law. Although regulations do exist, it appears most were not followed in Thailand.    

Marine Le Pen Seeks To Appeal The Ban On Running For The French Presidency

 

Marine Le Pen was found guilty of embezzlement. She will not serve any prison time . Two of the custody detainments are suspended, while the other two years will be a status of house arrest. This will require the use of an electronic tag .  Instead Marine Le Pen is prohibited from running in the next French presidential election. The misuse of European Union funds is a serious charge, but the ban on political office is has indications of political partisan motivations. If  Marine Le Pen was such a threat, a harsher prison sentence would have been imposed. The fact that individuals of such a corrupt nature can reach that level demonstrates the weakness of  the European liberal democratic system. This also has another negative consequence. Leaders are going to criminalize their political opponents on both the left and right. As Europe struggles economically, more are going to favor the conservative and far-right political factions. Suppressing political figures or movements is not going to defeat extremist elements within France. Marine Le Pen is seeking an appeal. It is dubious if the ruling can be overturned by 2027. Every attempt Le Pen made to be elected president she failed. The motivation to disqualify her now, might be due to the possibility Le Pen could win. A small number of Le Pen's political competitors also expressed concerns about the ruling. The National Rally Party is going to plot reprisals in reaction to this verdict. The appeals process is going to have legal complexities and opens the debate about the law in relation to political figures. 

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A New Phase In The Yemen War

 

The Houthi rebels are now fighting a new phase of the Yemen War. Israel's attacks on Gaza inflamed the rebellion and  escalated the civil war in Yemen. The response was to stop ships in the Red Sea. The invasion of Lebanon and attacks on Hezbollah  was significant to Houthi rebels. Seeing as both get some degree of support from Iran, the Red Sea response was the next choice. Yemen is nowing facing bombings from Israel's European and American allies. The objective is to ensure that Israel remains an outpost for US and European countries. Yemen could act as a launching area for a war on Iran. Saudi Arabia is a factor in the destabilization of Yemen. The desire to insert a president there loyal to their interest remains a priority. President Rashad al-Alimi made the accusation that al-Qaida was collaborating with Iran. This allegation has no basis, due to the fact a Sunni Muslim terrorist organization would not align with a Shia Muslim theocracy. Al-Qaida in the Arabian peninsula was formed indigenously. The other terrorist organizations were being aided by the West in Syria. The government of Yemen no longer controls the capital of Saana. Aden is now a de-facto capital for the al-Alimi administration. The Presidential Leadership Council has failed to govern Yemen. At one time,  President Rashad al-Alimi took refuge in Saudi Arabia. Like most presidents after the fall Abdullah Ali Salih, they are reliant of Saudi Arabia to enforce their leadership of Yemen. A decade has passed with no end in sight. The new phase of the Yemen War is that other conflicts are going to fuse with it.  

The Expulsion of Ebrahim Rasool and South Africa's Response

 

South African ambassador to the US Ebrahim Rasool was expelled from the United States. The reasons for the expulsion are motivated by economics, the intolerance of the Trump administration, and an attempt to undermine BRICS. There is speculation that Elon Musk is having indirect influence over US policy regarding South Africa. Musk an Afrikaner benefited from the Apartheid regime. The Trump administration has also offered white South Africans to come to America. These proposals are a projection of white nationalist sentiment. The attacks on South Africa are also intended to dissolve the BRICS alliance. Prior to the diplomatic dispute, President Donald Trump warned various nations about abandoning the US dollar. The emergent economies are going to see growth and this shifts the geopolitical power balance. The blatant racism was apparent seeing as it is rare this happens to a senior official. Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool was told he was no longer welcomed in the United States. When Rasool returned he was embraced by the South African Communist Party, ANC, and the South African public. The unprofessional conduct and discriminatory actions of the United States may have created more unity among South Africans. The government's response needs to be more forceful. Removal of US diplomats would be a proportional measure. If more criticisms about land reform come from the Trump administration, the ending of diplomatic ties should be considered. President Cyril Ramaphosa does have options, but if he does not act it will only harm South Africa's standing. Closing the embassy in the United States or imposing tariffs on American products are the more harsh  measures. South Africa could just request the US ambassador to leave. Regardless of what measure is taken, the expulsion of an ambassador for no reason demands retaliation.  

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Enter A New Era of Diplomatic Relations

 

Border clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have been taking place for over 30 years. These circumstances relate to how the Soviet Union divided Central Asia. When independence was granted as the result of the Soviet collapse in 1991, the new countries were in conflict. Between 2021 and 2022 the clashes between the two Central Asian states became more lethal. President Emomali Rahmon  and President Sadyr Japarov signed an agreement outlining what the defined borders would be. Since 2022, roads, railway, and air links were closed off. War or regional conflict only undermines the whole of Central Asia. This change in policy should be an example to all countries in the world. Conflict and war spreads while diplomacy is not given much consideration. The challenge is if Tajik and Kyrgyz  citizens will accept a peace settlement. Ethnic hatreds remain in particular areas. President Emomali Rahmon has ruled the country since 1994. Prior to this, he was Chairmen of the Supreme Assembly between 1992 to 1993. His power is immense being increased by constitutional referendums. President Rahmon has more power to maintain peace or disregard a peace settlement. President Sadyr Japarov does not have authoritarian power like other Central Asian leaders. Kyrgyzstan was during the 2000s rotating through various interim presidents. This was the result of the Tulip revolution. A change in administration could effect relations with Tajikistan. For now, the agreement to end hostilities remain intact.      

JFK Files Released

 

More documents related to the John F. Kennedy assassination have been released. A total of 80,000 documents. The release was done through executive order. Some are wondering why this took so long. The argument was that some documents had to be held for national security reasons. There was also speculation that the US government did not care about the assassination of a liberal head of state. At the time, Dallas Texas was rabidly anti-communist, anti-liberal, and supported racial segregation. Documents have been released before the recent executive order, but just add to the mystery. By law the government has to release all the documents. However, thousands of documents remain secret. This indicates that the criminal action had a much wider reach. Many Americans believe that Lee Harvey Oswald did not act alone. Others suspect that either the CIA itself or Cuban exiles who were part of the Bay of Pigs invasion were involved. Decades of scholarship, independent researchers, and historians have not been able to solve the case. The attempts to undermine the Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act of 1992 is apparent. Withholding information just allows more conspiracy theories to develop. While making all the documents public might not provide answers, it ends one dispute. The Warren Commission was an inadequate investigation, which made the wrong conclusion. Oswald was not a sole culprit. He is charged as the assassin, but never was tried due to being killed by Jack Ruby. Seeing as Oswald was never tried or convicted this would make him an alleged assassin. The documents might not solve the criminal case, but are useful for the preservation of American history.