Wednesday, May 13, 2020

There Was Never A State of Global Normalcy

The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically changed life around the world. It has made people wish for some type of normalcy. The illusion is that there was some form of stability. Global normalcy is a myth. War, poverty, economic instability, and a general decay of society was prevalent before the pandemic. The notion that nation-states are acting as guides in global crisis is shattered with the continued deaths and increasing infection rates. Some have been insulated in bubbles, without recognition of the extent of human suffering. The common maxim "we are all in this together" shows a level of delusion that the public has. Disproportionately the elderly, discriminated ethnic groups, and the poor are effected the worse by the pandemic. These groups were already at a disadvantage in society. The crisis just exposed how they are isolated and marginalized. The calls for unity are only statements as international conflicts and disputes continue. The US, Russia, and China are still in a struggle for geopolitical dominance. Iran and North Korea remain under sanctions. The constant state of conflict and animosity was never normal. The developed world has been protected from some of the erratic events of the globe, but this could be coming to an end. Neoliberal capitalism has put the average person in a condition of financial vulnerability. Unemployment and a weakened social safety net will certainly cause civil unrest. Global normalcy and the international order have been set into disarray. The world will never be the same and does not appear to be progressing to a better future. Stability  never a part of the world.Once the pandemic has ended, there will be more contention and division among nations. Previous global issues and disputes could escalate. World history is an extensive documentation of armed conflict, economic struggle, and unrest. Global normalcy was a concept designed to create the illusion of stability and international order.
      Warfare continues unrestrained despite the international crisis. Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria,Libya, Somalia, Yemen,  and the DRC remain in states of conflict. Israel has not softened its aggression either, with plans to expand settlements underway. There are even attempts to depose legitimately elected governments. Venezuela could be facing a possible US attack or regime change by the Trump administration. It has been alleged that mercenaries were sent to induce a coup against President Nicholas Maduro's government. The US and the right-wing governments in Latin America are attempting to remove socialist or leftist governments either by direct force or  covert action. Warfare has become a normal part of the international stage, with various nations planning massive conflicts. China and Russia have been demonized to distract from internal problems of the EU and US. The reason conflict is encouraged has to due with economic and political factors. The arms trade would not exist if it were not for armed conflict. The business of building tanks, guns, aircraft, and naval ships is too profitable. The United States, Russia, the UK, and Germany have invested too much in arms exports. The world has never been in a general state of peace. Politically, the democracies of the West do not have anything to offer the public in the face of economic collapse. Politicians rather not embark on ambitious reform or programs to address social and international problems. Instead a tactic is to use scapegoating and fear to direct public anger at another country or race. The COVID-19 pandemic will inevitably make the world blame China. The disputes related to trade and geopolitics could result in war. Analysis have described a new Cold War between the US and China, but the tension seems more critical. The 20th century saw devastating conflicts such as World War I, World War II, the Korean War, and the wars in Indochina. There was hope that with a newly established United Nations, that international disputes could be solved without violence. Once more, world power politics continued to be the mode of operation. During the Cold War it was two superpowers in competition for global influence. When the Soviet Union collapsed this cause a dramatic change. The US was the sole superpower . As old ethnic and religious hatreds emerged in a changing world, so did the mass migration of people. Internationalism and globalism is being rejected in favor of a more rabid xenophobic nativism. The world is not one; it is nations fighting one another. Unity among humankind it is impossible as long as people cling to their national, racial, and religious hatreds. The fact that conflicts have continued despite the global pandemic is proof of this.
        Economic insecurity has been a constant menace to various nations of the world. Neoliberal  capitalism has failed to produce prosperity for the majority of the world's population. Under such strain, income inequality and poverty will only get worse. The only logical conclusion that can be made is that the capitalist system no longer works. The only reason to attempt to salvage such a system is because no clear  alternative exists. Socialism could be a solution to such problems, but world revolution is out of reach. There are numerous political, social, and regional circumstances that prevent such an event from emerging. At the most basic level, the world population has not reach a level of consciousness to do so. The world's poor have no power. Even in the liberal democracies, the politicians and legislators favor the elite. The average citizen has less influence compared  the corporations who largely finance certain political figures and organizations. Poverty can no longer be hidden with more people requiring food stamps and unemployment assistance. The global economy has bee erratic since the Great Depression. The stock market crash in 1987, the Asian financial crisis in 1998, and the 2008 global financial crisis are just a few examples in recent history of economic instability. The pandemic is not to blame for the sudden economic crisis. This was the inevitable result of supply side economics, deregulation of banking, and neoliberal economic policy. The concern was about economic growth and accumulation of profit. Stagnant incomes or decline in the standard of living was not the concern of business leaders or economic advisors. Social mobility has become more out of reach for the majority of workers, while others fall from a position of financial security. Workers have been struggling for one decade to the next, with little help. While a select few at the top of the social scale have seen more wealth, that was taken as a sign everyone was doing well.  The illusion was shattered and the world grows evermore restless. Class oppression, which was seen as normal is now being challenged. Human history since the rise of civilization has been be pyramid structure of social hierarchy . Oppression is not a normalcy, rather it shows the level of dysfunction in a society. A new distinct conflict is emerging, which is based around class.For most of human history this has been happening, yet now it has become even more pronounced.Economic  recovery may never come,but for most it did not materialize. The myth of economic security has come to an end and world governments do not have a proper response.
         A combination of  erratic world events has created social decay. The largest example is the inadequate amount of healthcare the average person receives. Countries with functioning healthcare systems are able to handle the pandemic better. Before countries that are reliant on private insurance have caused much distress to the public. Insurance basically decides what type of care a person  receives or whether or not a person get care at all. Developing countries struggle to maintain a basic healthcare system. Connecting business with healthcare only shows how corrupt society has become. Profit and business is more important than human life. This may only be an extension of other negative attitudes. Racial animosity is on the rise, with immigrants being used as scapegoats. Hate groups, fringe organizations, and far-right extremists are becoming politically acceptable. Out of fear and hate they are being embraced by a public that is vulnerable to propaganda. The social decay that is happening was not sudden. This was a gradual deterioration of communities. Globalization and partisan politics cause massive division around the world. Instead of  expanding opportunity governments added to social decay. Public programs and services were being dismantled in favor of privatization. Along with unfair tax codes and the disappearance of high paying jobs, poverty increased. The developing wold had been dealing with economic challenges since independence from former colonizers. The 2008 global financial meltdown saw Europe impose the most stern measures of fiscal austerity. Generations may never experience comfort or stability like they did in the past. As the elite gain more wealth and power, it becomes more apparent that conventional means of political participation cannot stop them. The anger and frustration has become too enormous to placate. Civil unrest could be a possibility, if there is not some way to combat social decay.
        The current world crisis has exposed many faults with humanity. Prejudice, suspicion, hatred, and scapegoating have been prevalent. The calls for unity are mostly disingenuous coming from the US-EU block. Sanctions are still being imposed on Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, and North Korea. Discussions of aid or assistance has been non-existent for these states. There are some people in society that are not deemed important, but contradicts the mythical narrative that humanity is fighting all together one of the worst crisis of the century. African Americans, Latinos, and Native Americans are dying at higher rates from COVID-19. Medical neglect demonstrates that the US does not care about citizens are are not white. The most egregious aspect is that spurious claim has been accepted that these ethnic groups just do not take care of their health. The elderly also are seen as low priority with retirement homes facing high rates of infection. These cases of abuse and neglect were common even before the pandemic. Normalcy was never a part of the world. There is talk of  times being unprecedented or turbulent. History has been a narrative of violence, unrest, and dramatic social change. Wars, revolutions, and civil disturbance were common. The difference now, is that more people are taking note of  this cycle unrest. Technology has allowed greater access to information and the ability to document events as they happen. The promotion of blind optimism or the false sense of unity is designed to keep the population passive. World civilization is going to be changed an extreme fashion and it may be difficult for people to accept.The ruling elite want to maintain the economic and political status quo, but a growing number of people will question it. So much so that the mechanisms of liberal democracy will be subject to scrutiny. The international order of the 20th century has officially collapsed. A new world has emerged and the concept of global normalcy has come to an end.            

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Anti-African Racism in China


The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed a wave of racism and xenophobia across the globe. It also is a lugubrious reminder of racism that is not commonly discussed in other nations. Anti-African racism in China has been prevalent, even though it has diplomatic  relationships with multiple AU nations.Incidents of discrimination and scapegoating have harmed Africa-China relations. The biggest failure was not admitting the problem. As the US and EU become more suspicious of China, this comes with a security risk. African countries such as Zimbabwe or South Africa could break off relations if racist abuse is not adequately addressed. Guangzhou witness cases in which Africans were evicted from hotels and had their passports confiscated. Animosity between Africa and Asia only advances neocolonial western geopolitics. France, Germany, the US, and UK have a desire to have greater spheres of influence in Africa both politically and economically. China is seen as a challenger to the US-EU block. Sinophobia has grown across the world, with many blaming China for the pandemic. It is critical that African and Asian nations demonstrate solidarity in a time in which possible military action could be taken against them. These racist acts do not come as a surprise, seeing as Tibetans and Uighurs have been subject to similar abuse. President Xi Jingping's silence and inaction will only cause more harm to the country as a whole. China will have to repair and do more in terms of its diplomacy to maintain relations with African nations.   

Saturday, April 25, 2020

Kim Jong Un's Health


Kim Jong Un has fallen ill and some have speculated about his condition. It would be presumptuous to assume that he is in critical condition. Kim Jong Un underwent surgery allegedly for a heart condition and has had a difficult recovery. The concern is that if he were to pass away, North Korea could become unstable. Japan would have more concern about this considering its objection to its nuclear weapons program. China also has significant investment in North Korean affairs and has sent a medical team to advise Kim. This may actually embolden the US to take more aggressive military action. The desire for regime change has never gone away, which became more intense during the Bush administration. President Obama had a policy of strategic patience, President Trump has vacillated between diplomacy and bellicose rhetoric. Besides external threats to North Korea, the question of a successor becomes a problem. So far, it has been members of the Kim family that have ruled North Korea. Commentators have stated the likely candidate could be his sister Kim Yo-Jong. At the moment it can not be certain that North Korea is going through a sudden change in leadership.    

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Prime Minister Thomas Thabane and The Crisis in Lesotho


Lesotho appeared to be on the verge of another coup. Prime Minister Thomas Thabane has become a controversial figure, with his wife accused of murder of his ex-wife Lipoleo Thabane. The Southern African country has struggled with military coup's since it independence in 1966. This is not the first time Thomas Thabane served as  prime minister. He served between 2012 to 2015 and fled to South Africa when he thought his life was in danger. So far, it appears that Prime Minister Thabane is seeking immunity for himself and his wife related to the murder Lipoleo. It is possible that he could be removed from power by means of a snap election. If Prime Minister Thabane is to be removed from office it should be done by democratic means instead of extralegal means. The army was deployed on to the streets according to the government as a means of restoring order. The constitutional court rejected a plan to suspend parliament. There have been calls on Thabane to resign, but he has resisted these demands. If Lesotho becomes unstable it could generate a South African response. These two countries are closely connected both economically and politically. Thomas Thabane still remains head of the All Basotho Convention and if he remains some level of South African support he will have considerable protection.    

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

The IMF World Economic Outlook


The International Monetary Fund has predicted a very challenging global economy. There has been a sharp decline in economic growth. Such a dramatic change has not been seen since the Great Depression. The world economy suffered a major collapse in 2008 causing unemployment and a decline in living standards. Conditions are so poor that the UK may have to delay leaving the European Union once more. Some economists believe that this is only a minor recession and should stabilize once lock downs and quarantines end. This may not be the case for people who become unemployed when the public health crisis occurred. A depression may have happened regardless of the COVID-19 pandemic. Neoliberal capitalism and supply side economics has created an erratic global market. The poorest countries will be effected the most. Many are still in debt to the IMF with little benefits coming from loans. The US and EU countries will not be entirely spared. Fiscal austerity measures and structural adjustment could be used to ensure the system remains intact, It will come at the expense of the working public. The decline in social services, adequate pay, or a banking panic would result in civil unrest. At some point new solutions will be require to prevent complete breakdown of the global economy.    

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Bernie Sanders Suspends His Presidential Campaign


Bernie Sanders has announced that his campaign has been suspended. This effectively means that Joe Biden has the Democratic nomination. The American left has been struggling to get its agenda and policies into action. Yet, the moderate and centerist wings of the Democratic Party seem to be the biggest obstacle. There is a clear ideological and generational divide that has not been resolved by the party. Baby boomers and the millennial voters are in conflict over economic and political ideology. Some have been nostalgic for the Obama administration, thinking that Joe Biden can return the US to a place of stability. The younger generation seems more willing to adjust tactics to make change happen. Minimal reforms may not be enough to undo the damage caused by a Trump presidency. Bernie Sanders was generating a level of enthusiasm, which Joe Biden has difficulty replicating. The fear is that President Donald Trump will be reelected, due to the fact the Democratic Party selected a candidate that does not resonate with voters. Bernie may never be president, yet a movement has been started. These numbers could possibly grow long after he has retired from public life. The 2020 presidential election will have immense significance beyond the United States. It is unclear if  there is a Joe Biden presidency whether or not economic instability, healthcare, and social inequality will be addressed. If there is not an organized left, then a more radical neoconservative right will dominate American politics.  

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

The US Charges Nicolas Maduro with Drug Trafficking and Proposes a Plan of Political Transition


The Trump administration no longer recognizes President Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. New charges of  drug trafficking have been made, but so far there has been little evidence to suggest that his government has a full scale operation. The United States has been attempting to interfere in the internal affairs of Venezuela under the claim of protection of human rights. The ulterior motive is to get access to the country's oil and important geographic location. There has been a coordinated attempt to depose democratically elected leftist governments across Latin America. Bolivia and Brazil have been subject to a right-wing resurgence. There is a cash reward for President Maduro's arrest issued by the US government. The Trump administration has suggested that military action could be a possible option, if  President Nicolas Maduro is able to survive the political crisis.The pretext seems similar to the 1989 invasion of Panama or the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The US transition plan demands that both Juan Guaido and Nicloas Maduro  step aside. Doing so would mean an interim government would be installed. Sanctions would be lifted only when the process is over by both the US and EU. Neither leader would be willing to do this. Venezuela may find itself in direct conflict with the United States. Venezuela has an alliance with Cuba,  but other countries may not come to its aid if war were to break out.