The Growth of President Xi Jinping's Influence

 

President Xi Jinping will serve a third term as General Secretary. This is a new new development in the People's Republic of China. The tradition was to limit the terms. However, President Xi Jinping has growing influence both inside China and the wider global stage. Much of the diplomatic success was due to the efforts of the former president  Hu Jintao. His administration made a greater effort to build strong relations with African nations in the early 2000s. President Xi Jinping is using that framework and building upon it in regards to foreign relations. The concerns over Taiwan and the One China policy have made more suspicious of other world powers. Taiwan is still a part of China, but in reality has de facto independence. China's issue is that the break away island gets international recognition. Taiwan and the growing economic competition will be a major focus of Xi Jinping's third term. China's  economic goals ae to expand manufacturing and strengthen the information technology sector. Since becoming core leader, Xi Jinping has attained more power. The CCP and government might be going through a major transformation. China is becoming more like a mixed economy. The socialist and capitalist elements are fusing in a country that has become a world power. President Xi Jinping has an ambitious path of China having a greater role in global affairs. Diplomatic relation are going to extend through Latin America, Africa, and most of Asia. President Xi Jinping now represents what the multipolar world order. Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines remain suspicious of  President Xi Jinping's intentions.   

Haiti Is At Risk of Military Intervention

 

Growing discord has spread across Haiti. This is the result of the ending of much needed subsidies of the public. The instability has increased the threat of France, Canada, and the United States invading the island. The UN peacekeeping missions appear like military occupations, rather than humanitarian assistance. Criminal gangs are a problem, but these groups are not powerful enough to depose the government. The protesters are frustrated with their government, which fails to make any progress.  Ariel Henry's leadership has brought more political challenges. The Haitian leader called for intervention to help keep him in power. This has been erroneously been presented as the country itself calling for invasion. Ariel Henry was not elected, but appointed himself prime minister. It can be argued legally Henry does not have the authority to be in office. Accusations have also been made linking Ariel Henry to the assassination of Jovenel  Moise. Haiti has not been able to gain control of its own affairs. This is due to regime change and neocolonial imperialism. The last major occupation was during the removal of President  Jean Bertrand Aristide. The UN Minustah force engaged in acts of violence directed at the Haitian population. Witness stated most of the atrocities were done by Brazilian troops. Allegations of rape, destruction of public health, and human rights violations have been made against the UN mission. Haiti must fight internal insurrection, corrupt government,  and foreign interference to regain its national sovereignty.  

South Africa Pledges Its Support To The Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic

 

South Africa will continue to support the  Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic. The Western Saharawi has been struggling to get its independence from Morocco since 1975. Algeria has also maintained close involvement with the Saharawi Arab Republic. Both President Cyril Ramaphosa and President Brahim Ghali discussed  bilateral relations. The growing concern is the abuse of the Moroccan government of the Saharawi people. South Africa expressed its desire to have the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara extended. A major shift in African politics is happening. The events of the Arab Spring , terrorism in West Africa, and foreign interventions has made South Africa recalculate its diplomatic relations. The Polisario Front emerged when both Morocco and Mauritania invaded the territory. Prior to this, it was a Spanish colony. Morocco was under French control. The Polisario Front was able to expel Mauritania, but the war with Morocco continued. A UN ceasefire was established in 1991 and a referendum  on independence was suppose to take place. Years passed and this never came to fruition. The ceasefire collapsed in 2020. Nations began reversing their support for the Polisario Front. Spain did this due to the fact it was a source of contention with Morocco. The African Union recognizes the  the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic. Reports of violence by Morocco in the Western Sahara will alienate the kingdom. This will also ham relations with South Africa and other African states. King Mohammed VI has moved the Moroccan kingdom closer to Israel and the West. The reason for this change was fears of another Arab Spring. Foreign support would ensure the monarchy's survival. The actions from 2020 to present make it impossible for South Africa to cordial relations with Morocco. South Africa will in the coming years become closer to the SADR.  

Fears Grow of Belarus Entering The Russia-Ukraine War

 

Belarus could play a military role in the Russia-Ukraine War. The annexations in the eastern section of Ukraine demonstrate that the Russian Federation could win the war. Sources have reported that military drills have increased in Belarus. President Alexander Lukashenko ordered Belarussian troops to deploy with Russia's forces along the Ukraine border. If Belarus is about to invade, Ukraine would have to fight in both the north and east. The response to Belarus has been the threat of sanctions. Belarus was a staging ground for Russian troops in the invasion. Belarus has not engaged in combat operations. If the war continues the country might be tempted to join. Ukraine cannot win on its own and at some stage will face partition. Belarus could be calculating which parts it would take from Ukraine. This is why a peace settlement must be reached before a larger onslaught. The attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines and Crimea indicate dramatic escalation of the conflict. Debate remains about how effective the Belarussian military would be in the war. Belarus has not been at war for 30 years. Strikes in the north of Ukraine could reduce strength of forces in the south and east. Belarus is not a NATO member, but Russia might believe in the distant future it could forced into that orbit. President Lukashenko is often presented as a puppet pressured  by the Russian Federation. If that were the case Belarus would have joined the fighting by now. Russia and Belarus are close allies, but it does not mean it does not mean the country will blindly follow. The Russian Federation has the option of building up Belarus as a counter to a NATO backed Ukraine. Belarus also acts as a buffer state against Poland and Lithuania. If Belarus enters the war, then the conflict could spread throughout Eastern Europe.   

The Masha Amini Protests

 

The death of Masha Amini has sparked protests over Iran. The morality police have been under much criticism for their conduct in Iran. A new attention to women's rights has been the focus. This is different from the 2009 protests. Those were directed at the administration at the  the time. Iranian women have a new desire to have more freedom and access to the public sphere. The protests are indigenous,  meaning that there is no external force attempting destabilization. If Iran wants to change its government, it will have to come from the efforts of the people living there. Exiles and foreign entities are not going to form a genuine revolution. Other social pressures could be driving discord. Sanctions and the war in Yemen are sources of contention. The growing possibility of a conflict with Israel is a concern. Saudi Arabia continues to be a security risk to the Islamic Republic. The economic and social challenges are not being addressed. The theocratic regimes in the Middle East are some of the worst human rights abusers. Iran and Israel demonstrate why theocracy is not preferable form of government. Women are subject to more abuse under theocratic regimes. More restrictions are placed on women  the more religious a society is. The demonstrations are not as massive as the 1979 Iranian Revolution against the monarchy. The reason is because  the issue mostly effects women. Men probably are not going to be supportive of a social  or cultural change related to sex politics. Although the demonstrations might not be successful, a growing number of Iranian women are reaching a new political consciousness.    

Brazil's 2022 Prsidential Election

 

Brazil's presidential election has taken a fascinating turn. It has headed to a run off election. Luiz Lula Da Silva has made a political comeback seeking to return to the presidency. However, President Jair Bolsonaro performed better than the polls predicted. Polls have been under major scrutiny when it relates to election outcomes. Da Silva only got 48.4 % of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 43.23%. To win the first round a candidate needs 50%. This is why Brazil went into a run off. The challenge with electoral systems of liberal democracy is that candidates do not get enough votes to avoid a run off. Even with an independent judiciary, legal challenges to results are a concern. There remain fears that Jair Bolsonaro will not accept the election results. He has not been shy about his admiration for the military government that ruled Brazil between 1964 to 1985. Compared to other Latin American countries Brazil had stability. This has been the case throughout its history, but that might change. Even if Luiz Lula Da Silva wins, he has to face right-wing opposition. President Jair Bolsonaro  could always make a return to office in the following years. Brazil's elections represents the wave of right-wing movements coming to power starting in the late 2000s. Who ever wins will also effect Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua.  

Ebola Detected In Uganda

 

Uganda has detected the Ebola virus in its borders. The information brings fears of the outbreak  in Liberia around 2014. The outbreak then spread throughout West Africa.  The Democratic Republic of  the Congo also experienced an outbreak in 2018. The recent outbreak is believed to be a new strain. That makes it difficult to develop a vaccine to prevent further infections. The COVID-19 pandemic has not ended. Even though there are enough vaccines to fight the disease, the healthcare systems might not be ready to handle another major crisis. The World Health Organization is tracking developments. Some virologists are debating whether or not this is another type of virus. The strains detected in the DRC and Sudan are classified as Ebola virus. It has not been confirmed that this is a new type of virus different from Ebola. Outbreaks of Ebola have ended without vaccines. Quarantines, surveillance, strict hygiene practices, and well equipped healthcare teams have contained outbreaks. Uganda did have a 2012 outbreak  of Ebola virus, but this did not become a pandemic. Isolating and providing quality medical treatment to the infected is the best way to prevent further spread. These techniques will have to be used if vaccines cannot be produced fast enough. The new virus might still be classified as part of the arterivirus group. 

Paul Henri Damiba Deposed

 

Burkina Faso is becoming more unstable. Another coup has occurred, which forced Paul Henri Damiba to resign. Clinging to power would mean civil war. This is something Burkina Faso cannot withstand seeing as their is an insurgency. The armed groups are thought to be terrorist organizations. These forces are active in the north and east of Burkina Faso. Mediation efforts are underway to form a new government. The military will still have all of the power with Ibrahim Traore as head of state. The constitution remains suspended. If the constitution remains suspended, then there is no legal means of challenging the military regime. The transitional government no longer exists. By now, most observers can see that the military will be in power for sometime. The French embassy was attacked by protesters thinking they were giving aid to Damiba. France also has a military base in Burkina Faso. He was only in power for eight months and there is little information about his European connections. The coup appears to be an internal matter, not a foreign operation of regime change. The likely tools of regime change are armed groups that are associated with ISIS or al-Qaeda. A country going through a series of leaders shows a lack of stability. The lack of security and activity of terrorist organizations only gives the military regime justification for anti-democratic measures. Condemnation from the African Union and ECOWAS has not changed Burkina Faso's policy positions. Part of the agreement of Damiba's departure was that he will not be charged with crimes against the state.