Conflict has broken out between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine has been in a state of civil war ever since 2014. The overthrow of the Viktor Yanukoych presidency caused certain provinces to seek independence. Ukraine is divided between east and west. The western section of the country favors the European Union and NATO. The eastern section of the country is in alignment with the Russian Federation. The Donbass region has a large number of ethnic Russians. This part of Ukraine has been attempting to break away. Both Donetsk and Luhansk were recognized as independent countries by Russia. This sparked outrage from the US, France, and the UK. The root of the conflict goes back further than the West aiding the removal of the Yanukoych presidency. An agreement was made between Russia and NATO that the military alliance would not expand. NATO has been getting closer to Russian borders over the past two decades. Although NATO was meant to be an defensive military alliance it has been involved in the former Yugoslavia, Libya, and Afghanistan. Some analysts have questioned why this alliance remains even when the Cold War is over. There are economic and political reasons that NATO remains. Eastern Europe is a lucrative market for arms manufacturers. The European Union has a vision of a politically integrated Europe, regardless of what individual European states want. An east and west divide still stops this design for supranationalism from happening. Russia want to have influence in eastern Europe. To counter this NATO added more countries to the alliance. Ukraine is now caught in a state of civil war and being partition between two world powers. The United States and Russia are challenging one another for control of Ukraine. Reckless action has made the situation escalate into a new conflict. Observers have called this a Russian invasion, but it is a country intervening in a civil war. Russians were assisting militias and armed groups prior to 2022. The risk is that a European conflict could spread throughout the continent and the world.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict origins go back eight years ago. The Russian involvement in Ukraine started with the annexation of Crimea. This was done in a less violent manner, by means of a referendum. The majority of the population is Russian so the results worked in Russia favor. This was the Russian Federation's response to the removal of Vikor Yanukoych. Seeing as a legitimate government was deposed, some chose to take up arms against the new administration. Protests had gripped the country with debates about trade deals with the EU. The Association Agreement was thus rejected. Yanukoych favored Russia, which was why his presidency was targeted by other European powers. Soon armed factions began emerging. Ethnic Russians in the east began fighting the Ukrainians in the west. President Vladimir Putin began aiding rebels groups in the Donbas. Those in the east feared the Maidan revolution . Ukraine if it got closer to the EU could harm their financial situation, considering the area had significant economic ties to Russia. This caused tensions to build between Kyiv and Moscow. The United States was also arming Ukraine against the rebels. The country had become a battleground for a war of proxy between two world powers. Among the armed groups extremist elements were emerging. The Azov Battalion has been identified as a neo-Nazi organization which has been involved in combat. Ukraine slipped into civil war, which was a justification made by more powerful countries to intervene. President Petro Poroshenko was not willing to negotiate a peace with the Donbas.
The causalities were increasing and it appeared that neither of the waring parties were closer to victory. A peace settlement was needed to prevent Ukraine from breaking in two. The Minsk agreements were designed to end the civil war in Ukraine. The Minsk II in 2015 was a cease-fire more so than a peace treaty. Under a Poroshenko presidency, peace may not have been possible. This was due to his suspicion of Russia. The EU and US favored him over the newly elected president Volodymr Zelensky. The comedian was not expected to win, but the public wanted someone different. President Zelensky was more open to talks compared to his predecessor. The obstacles that prevented this were related to the Ukraine's possible entry into NATO and establishment of weapons systems. Russia had concerns about its borders. NATO was expanding breaking a promise not to do so. Only Belarus and Moldova are not a part of the NATO alliance on Russia's border . Sweden and Finland are not a part of the alliance. These countries tend to be neutral in foreign affairs. The reaction to NATO expansion was to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk. From these areas a full scale invasion was launched. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict took a dramatic turn. Russia was doing a large scale military intervention. Russia is now fighting militias and the Ukrainian military. Belarus could become involved considering Russia is its close ally. Hungary is one of the few NATO members more sympathetic to Russia. The conflict if protracted might spread into neighboring states. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict started from regime change and transforming into a civil war . The evolution to a war of proxy made it another location of US-Russia contention. The Russian Federation then chose to escalate military operations.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was founded in 1949 as a defensive alliance against the Soviet Union. At the time, it was the Cold War and both the superpowers were struggling for geopolitical domination of the globe. Overtime, the Soviet Union could not compete economically. The Soviet system reached a point of stagnation. Pressures from the war in Afghanistan and new reforms brought about its collapse. The Soviet Union cease to exist in 1991. However, since 1992 NATO has been expanding. The pace of it increased in the 2000s. The Russian Federation is not as powerful as the Soviet Union was or the Russian Empire. NATO's role and purpose has been changed. The military alliance is designed to inflict violence against countries who resist the West. Under the cover of humanitarian intervention, countries that are not even in Europe have been attacked by NATO. There are cases in which NATO tries to change the map. Kosovo would not exist as an independent state without NATO's involvement in the break up of Yugoslavia. NATO's role is not defensive, but to use preemptive strike. The Association Agreement would have been the pathway to moving Ukraine into NATO membership. This created a paranoia in Russian political circles of a future invasion by NATO. Russia has been invaded by France under Napoleon , Germany under Wilhelm II, and then Adolf Hitler. Russia's paranoia does have some historical foundation. The fear of possible invasion was the reason for Soviet occupation of eastern Europe. When the Cold War was over, Russia and the West realized a new framework was needed. The Founding Act was an agreement made between NATO and the Russian Federation. It called for cooperation and mutual understanding on security matters. This was introduced in 1997. The promise that NATO would not expand was not kept. The concern is that the members of the alliance will one day be involved in a war against Russia. Belarus, Sweden, Finland, and Moldova are not a part of NATO. Sweden has been neutral in terms of foreign policy. Finland might join in response to events in Ukraine. Belarus is aligned with Russia and Moldova tends to favor appears to favor a western orientation. President Maria Sandu has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. President Alexander Lukashenko supports Russian efforts, but indicates it wants to hold talks between Ukraine and Russia. Hungarian Prime Minster Viktor Orban has expressed his frustration with Russian military strikes in Ukraine. President Milos Zeman of the Czech Republic has also condemned the war in Ukraine. Hungary and the Czech Republic were advocates for Russia in NATO. Diplomatic relations could end if the war continues. NATO will only justify its expansion and use the conflict to promote its agenda. Russia invaded thinking it would deter expansion, yet it only makes it inevitable.
The European Union has a political vision for the entire continent. The desire to promote certain values such as liberal democratic systems, free movement among borders, and the euro are objectives. Members have to adhere to certain stipulations. This comes at the cost of elements of national sovereignty. The European Union cannot have a competing economic and political rival. This is why the UK's exit from the EU was met with contention. Russia poses a political and economic challenge. Russia provides energy to Europe. Germany and Italy are dependent on Russian gas. The United States does not approve of Europe buying Russian gas. The desire is to have European countries make purchases from the United States. Disputes have emerged from economic competition. Russia was close to making Nord Stream 2 pipeline a lucrative business transaction. The business agreement with Germany was objected to by both the Trump and Biden administrations. The invasion of Ukraine has suspended operation. The source of conflict in Europe is related to fossil fuels and energy. The investment in renewable energy can help prevent future conflicts. Europe getting energy independence would be beneficial economically. Both Russia and the United States have leverage on Europe which can be used at anytime. Russia could have used natural gas as leverage to settle the Ukraine dispute. The problem is that Russia would lose access to buyers. More sanctions have been put on Russia as a means of opposing the invasion. The consequences of this are higher gas prices in Europe and the US. Ultimately sanctions will harm the average citizen in America, Russia, and the rest of Europe. The Ukraine -Russia conflict will not just impact Europe, but the global economy. Stock markets react to world events. Cutting off Russia from the global economy could impact African and Asian nations that do business with the country. Supply chain issues, inflation, and the pandemic only add to the strain on the global economy. Energy related confrontation only exacerbates a dire situation. Another dimension to the economics of the region is the arms trade. Eastern Europe has been a buyer of American weapons. Tanks, aircraft, and missiles have been sold to eastern European countries. The United States was arming Ukraine during its civil war. This partnership will continue. A large part of the US economy rests on arms production. If the West and Russia came to a consensus, this would disrupt the arms trade. NATO countries would not buy American weapons if there was no concept of a Russian threat. Russian integration economically into Europe would challenge American influence. The European Union would never accept Russia, because it is too economically independent. Although EU countries and Russia are capitalist systems, a rivalry exists for influence in the global economy.
A power struggle has broken out between two versions of neo-colonial imperialism. There is the NATO-US block which wanted to mold Ukraine into another EU type of state. Russia seeks to pull Ukraine into its sphere of influence. The country was a part of the Soviet Union. Formerly colonized states struggle to break free of their mother country. African and Asian countries had this problem in the 1960s and 1970s. Ukraine has been caught in a contest of world power competition. Pressure from Russia or the United States undermines Ukraine's sovereignty. The UK and France have intervened in formerly colonized countries. Russia has replicated this model with Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has dissolved the myth of an international rules based order. It was slowly in decline with the Iraq War. The West and the United States wanted to present itself as a defender of human rights and democracy. When economics or the quest for national power are factors these values are discarded. The attempt to transform Ukraine into an NATO state resulted in provocation for Russia. The extreme response was launching an aggressive war that appears to be one of conquest. Efforts are still being made to establish a peace settlement. There is refusal to facilitate this by the EU countries. Belarus has offered to provide a platform for Russian and Ukrainian delegations. President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated he would rather have peace. Russia has not fully taken over the country. Fighting continues in major cities, which suggest the Ukrainian military is much stronger than thought. Military aid from the UK, Germany, US, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. Peace talks will not be successful under sanctions targeting Russian companies and banks. The Biden administration was not receptive to negotiations related to NATO expansion. Since the Obama administration US-Russian relations rapidly declined. The struggle to make Ukraine under control of either the US or Russia caused the 2022 conflict. Russia prior to this was engaging in military action in Georgia. The Russo-Georgian War in 2008 followed a similar narrative as Ukraine. Russian recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This resulted in war, which Russia won. However, Georgia was not absorbed into the Russian Federation. Ukraine may not be fully conquered, but the Donbas might become part of the Russian Federation. Russia is using irredentism and NATO expansion as an excuse to wage war in Ukraine. The US and EU countries make the justification for war as being a humanitarian mission. Ukraine can be free if it rejects both power blocks. When Ukraine gains a status of neutrality it will not be part of large scale geopolitical power struggles.
