Tuesday, December 29, 2015

What Libyans Really Feel About the US Intervention in Their Country



President Obama congratulated Libya on achieving "independence" in the anniversary of the 2011 Civil War. This is a true act of imperial hubris lauding an act of aggressive war. Under Muammar Qaddafi, Libya had a functioning government and a stable society. The country has gradually become a failed state, but the narrative presents it as a success of NATO military action. Libya demonstrated that natural resources if used properly, can improve the standard of living. They were not reliant on the IMF or World Bank for development, but chose an alternative that was more effective. The president's comments are disingenuous and condescending. Not only that, but it shows a profound lack of empathy. Libyans face economic challenges, armed militias, and the growing problem of international terrorism. There is no chance of a unity government with ethnic hatreds escalating at high levels. The US and EU have induced the refugee crisis with the attack on Libya. Imposing a governance on a country that does not want it creates more conflict.      

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Reasons Behind the Rise of International Terrorism

There has been a gradual increase in international terrorism. Prejudiced individuals claim it is because of Islam and state that the religion is by nature extremist. This bigoted and simplistic perspective  ignores the complex social, political, and economic realities. The Middle East does not have a monopoly on terrorism; many nations attack others on a daily basis. Aggressive war has become America's strategy for solving international disputes. This policy has caused damaging repercussions. The only option left for some is to take up arms in response to US hegemony. The alternatives are limited in terms of organizing. Arab nationalism was a major force, that faded after Nasser's death. It was completely killed with the fall of Qaddafi. The attacks will continue as long as the current foreign policies are in place. The problem is rooted in the Cold War. During this period the United States supported Islamist in the Middle East as a counter to Nasserism. Saudi Arabia was also a large contributor to a large Islamist faction through the development of the World Muslim League. The United States would then arm Islamist groups in Afghanistan with assistance from Saudi Arabia as well as Pakistan. Even after the with draw of Soviet forces, the US continued to support these armed groups. What also gave rise to international terrorism was internal discontent within Arab and North African countries. The Islamist rejected modernism and cultural influence from the West. They believed their way of life was being destroyed by decadent and unsavory elements. Another issue that arose was the discord with authoritarian regimes supported by the US and its European allies. What also exacerbated the situation was an unquestioned alliance with Israel. This continues to be a source of major contention in the Middle East. The economic dynamic drove many to join extremist groups. The financial reward seemed worth it in some countries, seeing as unemployment was high and growth was non-existent. US imperialism, continued support for Israel,  internal resistance to modernity, authoritarian regimes, and military strikes are reasons behind the spike international terrorism around the world.
       US imperialism has been masked in a fraudulent cause of protecting freedom and human rights across the globe. During the Cold War the excuse used for rapid expansion was to stop the spread of communism. The United States realized that the Middle East was of significant geopolitical importance. The Eisenhower administration developed a policy of favoring Saudi Arabia as force against Egypt. Gamal Nasser challenged western imperialism by having solidarity with anti-colonial movements and taking control of the Suez Canal. The Suez crisis may have been a military defeat for Egypt, but it was a political victory. Arab nationalism was a major movement in the Middle East and threatened US Cold War policy in the region. Direct invasion would be too precarious. Nasser was not a communist, so that excuse would lack cogency in international public opinion.The option that was used to harass Egypt was a combination of sabotage and arming of hostile countries. The element of sabotage involved arming religious fundamentalists. This experiment was done in Iran when the CIA and MI5 contributed to the overthrow of Mohamud Mossadeq. Prime Minister Mossadeq was going to nationalize the oil industry which would effect American and British access. The British did provide support to the Muslim Brotherhood. This was prior to the 1952 free officers coup that removed the monarchy of King Farouk. Support for the Muslim Brotherhood by the British was designed to halt the Arab nationalist movement. Even when the British supported monarchy collapsed, the Muslim Brotherhood remained active. Sunni Muslim extremist groups were being financed and armed by Saudi Arabia. The turning point came with the establishment of the World Muslim League. King Faisal established this not only to fight communism, but Nassarism and anti-colonial movements. This was the point in which radical political Islamism became an ally of the US .Religious fundamentalists reactionaries would be natural anti-communists, because they believed atheism was an evil.The US was not fighting communism, but imposing its will on developing nations. This meant becoming involved in the internal affairs of various nations around the world. When the US became intertwined with the internal affairs of the Middle East the effects were devastating.
        The major foreign policy error was the support for Israel. This has caused much rage in the Middle East. Israel's continued discrimination and murder of the Palestinians has made it a general pariah internationally. The United States continues to defend the country, even when it commits acts violence and human rights abuse. Radical political Islamists  use this fact as a recruitment tool. The Palestinians who have no other legal options to combat oppression may turn to Islamist groups. Islamic Jihad becomes attractive to some due to the fact Arab leaders no longer challenge Israel. Syria, Iraq, and Libya were the few states that continued resistance. The Gulf monarchies are western aligned and opted for peace. Egypt under Anwar Sadat recognized Israel in exchange for the return of the Sinai peninsula. Egypt had abandoned the pan-Arab vision, leaving a  political power void in the region. It was only a matter of time that the populace would turn to another political ideology. The loss of territories to Israel in the Six Day War in 1967, but the Middle East in a major state of disrepair.

Egypt lost the Sinai peninsula and Syria had the Golan Heights seized. The West Bank and Gaza Strip were occupied. It seemed as if Arab nationalism was defeated. The death of Nasser was the final blow. Islamism was gradually becoming the new political movement popular in the Middle East. Israel continues to be a symbol of colonialism and an entity that seeks to harm Arabs. While it cannot be denied that Zionists and Islamist basically want theocracy, their versions differ. One seeks the rule of Islam, while the other wants the rule of Judaism. Zionists already seem to be ahead in their theocratic project . The peculiar amalgamation of groups known as ISIS want to establish a caliphate . Iran is a theocracy, but has no need for expansion. it already has allies like Syria and Hezbollah which can contribute to its regional goals. Iran has been accused of Israel and the US of supporting terrorism, but this claim is questionable. The majority of  terrorist groups are Sunni Muslim extremist and would not accept Shia Muslim financing or support. The reality is that the US and Israel have armed a multitude of groups for the purpose of destabilization. Jundallah has been active in Iran and allegedly has assistance from the US and its allies in the region. This combination of destabilization and aggressive Israeli expansion increase support for terrorist organizations. The people that join terrorist  see it as an effective method to resist the West and oppression from Israel. 
       The resistance  to modernity is by no means a unique issue to the Middle East. Across the globe reactionaries are organizing themselves to return to a "better time." Relevant to the Middle East, there are groups that want to see Islam practiced in what they believe to be "its purest form." Islam is a religion that has a long history of intricate thought. This pure form that anti-modernists want to go back to never existed. The motivation becomes clear when examining the objectives. The main objective of the Islamist movement is political transformation, not theological or philosophical exploration. Their goals are to transform Middle Eastern society into what they believe should be model Islamic states. These are extreme conservative values which include the subordination of women, an extreme version of Shariah law, and intolerance of opposing theological perspectives. Modern societies are becoming more secular and pluralistic. Globalization has allowed certain ideas and values to spread faster than ever before. Conservative Islamists want to keep these ideas from spreading, because they are convinced it will damage society.Transformations are already happening. Saudi Arabia is allowing women to participate in government. Women were allowed to vote in  Kuwait in 2007 for the first time. The conservative elements realize that the restrictive legal barriers are being removed and will respond with violence. People with extremist view points will join terrorist organizations, because of the feeling something is being taken from them. Change is the wave of the future. There are individuals who are either resistant or hostile to change and react violently. Religious societies will struggle to survive in the modern world. The West is not free from this conflict either. Religion continues to divide countries like the United States were social conservatives and liberal progressives are polarized. The Middle East is going through its own culture war. It has now escalated to the point of armed conflict. 
         Another catalyst for the increase in international terrorism is the existence of authoritarian regimes. The citizens living in the Gulf monarchies either despise their leaders or consider them Western clients. The leaders who were not puppets or aligned with the West were either killed or deposed by military force. Bashar Al-Assad's Syria is targeted because of its independent foreign policy. Muammar Qaddafi was never compliant with the West and was attacked. These leaders maintained high popularity due to their populist and nationalist ideology that wanted to maintain national sovereignty at all costs. Saudi Arabia is more oppressive than the other "rogue states" in the region. There is no political party or opposition group that can challenge the Saudi monarchy. The only organized groups are radical political Islamist ones. Religion is a great organizing  force and it can unite people from various ethnic, social, and political backgrounds.Saudi Arabia was founded on the basis of an extreme religious movement  of Sunni Islam known as Wahabbism. It was promoted to keep the kingdom together and control the more extremist elements of society. The Saudi monarchy then wanted to spread this religious movement around the world. Afghanistan and Pakistan became perfect places to do so. During the 1980s King Fahd established madrassas in both countries in order to spread the Wahabbist version of Islam. These were the ideological foundations of  terrorist organizations. Ideas are major motivators for actions and behaviors. Sayyid Qutb initially articulated early radical political Islamist ideas in Egypt in the 1950s and 1960s. Before Qutb, there was Hassan Al-Bana who in many ways was the harbinger of the radical political Islamist movement. He would go on to establish the Muslim Brotherhood.  


While different movements were emerging in numerous countries and independent of one another it was Saudi Arabia that wanted to unify it under its leadership. That is why it used its vast wealth to fund extremist Wahabbi madrassas internationally. The Soviet-Afghan War was the perfect opportunity for this, but had an unintended consequence. Like the United States, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations experienced blowback. The fighters that were known as the Arab Afghans came back to their home countries with the intent to overthrow both secular and monarchical governments. Saudi Arabia currently is at a cross roads attempting to fight the same extremists that it has armed. It still continues to arm groups active in the Syrian Civil War. The portion that it lost control of now is its biggest challenge internally and externally. Bahrain could face a similar problem if it does not allow reform. Young people frustrated by the level of oppression could be pushed into the arms of terrorists groups, because there is no political alternative. The emergent terrorist groups state their opposition to monarchy, secular regimes, and Western aligned governments. While citizens of various countries dislike their government this message becomes a voice of hope. People are drawn to terrorist groups due to inability to have representation in government. This is further exacerbated by economic decline in certain countries. Employment is low for youth, brain drain occurs, and there is limited opportunity for advancement. The real reason for the Arab Spring was not genuine revolutionary fervor, but economic challenges. Tunisia being the birth place of these uprisings demonstrated a government incapable of serving its citizens. Zine El Abindine Ben Ali chose to favor IMF reforms at the expense of the population. The result was the increase in youth unemployment and smaller businesses struggling to compete with international markets. Hosni Mubarack  followed similar policies in Egypt, which only created more support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Across North Africa and the Middle East Islamist parties were coming to power and were becoming like their former oppressors. Former President Morsi was deposed in Egypt due to the fact reforms were not implemented fast enough. He underestimated the political power of the army. Now terrorism has increased in the Sinai peninsula to resist the Al-Sisisi presidency. Authoritarian regimes now use the excuse they are fighting terrorism to continue oppressive policies. King Salman uses this excuse to pursue war in Yemen and continue to back Syrian rebels. The real irony is that the terrorists and authoritarians need each other to continue their agendas.  
        US military intervention has caused the increase of international terrorism to astronomical levels .  After the September 11th Attacks, the US embarked on a world conquering mission known as the War on Terror. This flawed concept wanted to declare war on a military tactic. Iraq, Libya, and now Syria are subject to military interventions. These strikes only make people want to join terrorist groups as a means of resistance. This becomes a powerful tool of recruitment, because everywhere the US invaded nothing positive occurred. Before 2001, the US was involved in Afghanistan for decades. It was the Jimmy Carter administration that began instigating uprisings in Afghanistan. Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Carter's  National Security Advisor  formulated this policy with intent of creating a Vietnam scenario for the Soviet Union. Once again, the US armed religious fundamentalists to destabilize a Middle Eastern government. The Nur Muhammad Taraki presidency in Afghanistan was weak. Taraki would fall from power being killed in the process. Hafizullah Amin would not hold on to the presidency long. Babrak Karmal would come to power in 1979, but needed Soviet assistance to stabilize his government. The People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan would not have held on to power without Soviet help. Around 1979, the Soviet Union sent forces into the country to keep the government intact. More aid came including weapons to the growing mujahideen forces. Afghanistan was falling into a state of civil war. The Ronald Reagan administration continued the policy of arming extremists to a far greater extent. Muhammad Zia-ul Haq the military dictator of Pakistan contributed to the development of the Taliban in the war against the Soviets. The ISI was critical in their growth and still continue to support sections of the group. All these armed groups would later break away to form Al-qaeda in 1988. Osama Bin Laden, Abdullah Azzam, and Ayman al-Zawahiri  were its founders. After the Soviet withdraw, many of the fighters returned to their home countries with the desire to overthrow governments by violent means. Algeria, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Tunisia were experiencing challenges with terrorism. This would not have been possible without US involvement in the Soviet-Afghan War. This parallels the current situation with the rise of ISIS. The invasion of Iraq and the subsequent removal of Saddam Hussein allowed for a power void to form. Iraqis tired with occupation, corrupt government, and Sunni Muslims frustrated with discrimination joined the group, because it appeared to be a vehicle for  change. The reality is that it is a monstrous creation of US military strikes. The consequences have been horrific, with a growing number of refugees fleeing to Europe. There is now a situation in which people born in Europe are going to Iraq and Syria to join ISIS. If Iraq and Libya were never invaded ISIS would not even exist. If the Baathist government of Syria falls it will on make them more powerful. 
       International terrorism differs in the respect that perpetrators view everything from a global rather than a local perspective. If one country invades another Muslim country, they will go there to fight. They attempt to use the language of anti-colonial freedom struggle, but only talk about Muslim nations that suffer oppression. There are many countries that face hostility from the West that are not Muslim and they do not seem willing to fight for them. It is important to understand that one ethnic group or religion does not have a monopoly on terrorism. The US for half a century has terrorized countries that were no threat to it. Vietnam was subject to worst forms of US terrorism through bombing. More Arabs and Muslims have died than the people who perished in the September 11th attacks. That is the real tragedy. Islamophobia and anti-Arab racism has reach astronomical heights in Europe and the US. These racist convictions are influencing foreign policy and public opinion. It makes it easier for the public to accept aggressive war against Middle Eastern nations. It also enables Israel to continue to violate basic human rights and international law. As long as unpopular Western supported regimes remain in place, support for Israel continues, and imperialism remains a credible foreign policy terrorism will spread. Another problem that must be addressed is the question of religion in modern society. This is not just a problem of Islam, but religion in general. If religion wants to survive it must learn to adapt to modern society. Many are gradually thinking that it is no longer compatible. This is a question Muslims must confront by  themselves. The West must learn that the era of total domination is over. People will not longer accept subjugation by military force. If these issues can be solved international terrorism can be reduced, if not defeated.                      
                 
         

Friday, December 18, 2015

Referendum vote likely to extend President Kagame's rule



Paul Kagame President of Rwanda is seeking to extend his rule through a referendum. There are other proposed changes to the constitution as well. He has ruled the country since 1994 and in the tradition of other African leaders does not want to relinquish power. The revision could allow him to run for another 18 years. The voter turn out was high. President Kagame claims that he does not want to run for a third term, but the outcome seems predetermined. Extending presidential terms has not been received well in Burundi or Burkina Faso. Blaise Campore fell from power due to mass protests and President Nkurunziza still faces challenges from public opposition. There are fears that Burundi could revert back to a state of civil war. If  this happens it could possibly effect Rwanda. The only certainty now is that Paul Kagame will continue to rule with an iron first.  

Sunday, December 13, 2015

The Compact Disc (CD)

The compact disc is a piece of technology designed to store data. This has been a primary method for storage for users of computers. The optical technology records data and utilizes lasers for this task. This format has become very popular which paved the way for the creation of DVDs, blue ray discs, video, and audio compact disc. James T. Russel was a physicist who developed one of the first compact discs. Sony and Phillips, two major electronics corporations made improvements to this technology and began selling it to the public. Around 1978 the first modern compact disc was produced, but it would not be marketed until 1982. Making a compact disc  requires  optically flat glass. A resist substances is added to that glass. Initially, the glass is on a base known as the master disc. This master disc will be placed on a turntable and then the digital signal is sent to a laser.  This allows the laser to function on a binary signal. The laser can be either turned on or off. The laser when activated will burn away a part of the resist material. When the disc turns, the recording head will migrate across the disc. The result will be a spiral shaped track burned onto the resist surface.


The recording will be completed and the next stage begins. What is known as the glass master is put into an enchant bath. The glass will remain and the resist will remain present.  What will be on the spiral track are a number of diminutive pits. They differ in length, but the depth is the same for each. Playing a recorded CD requires a laser beam. The beam scans up to five kilometers of playing track. During this process it converts pits and lands on the CD into binary codes. A photodiode then transforms this into coded electrical impulses within the CD. This is the basic outline of CD production and development.
       The CD like any other technology has certain parts. The main component is plastic. It has thin layers and in total a CD is only 1.2 mm. At the top of the CD is the label. Following that layer is an acrylic sheet and aluminium sheet. The final part of the CD is the polycarbonate plastic which has been injection molded. 

These layers contribute to the spirals  of the disc. The spiral track  maintains data. It starts at the center and continues outward on the disc. The bumps that are what construct the track. They are approximately 0.5 microns wide, 0.83 microns long, and 125 nanometers  high. The bumps on the CD can appear as pits on the aluminum side of the disc.If one was to pull the track off the CD, it would stretch for five kilometers. This is the basic structure, but when a CD is put into a drive it requires more processes. 
    The CD player has the task of extracting information from the disc. The bumps will be read by the drive to give information to the user. The drive motor spins the disc at a rate of 500 rmp. The speed depends on the type of track being read. The lens system must focus in on the bumps and the laser will be guided to them. The responsibility of the tracking system will assist the laser to the spiral track. The laser will move at micron resolutions. When laser focus occurs, the beam will hit the polycarbonate layer, reflect off the aluminum layer, and hits an opto-electronic device. It will detect changes in the light  Reflections behave differently on the aluminum layer.  The opto-electronic sensor monitors the changes in reflective properties. Changes in these properties help the CD read the bits. 


The data track requires the laser beam to be centered on it. The tracking system moves the laser outward. As the laser moves out from the center. The spindle monitor has to slow the speed of the CD. This makes the bumps on the CD travel past the laser beam at a rate that is constant. The data can then be let off the CD at the same rate as well. If this does not occur, play back and encoding errors can be on the disc.
      The CD has remained a preferred storage format. Even with the rise of external storage hard drives, they continue to cell millions of copies. It has become critical for archiving various video and audio materials. There can be problems in terns of preservation. Manufactures have stated that CD-ROMs can last at least twenty years. According to the United States National Archives and Records Administration the life span can be at least five years. Both these lifespans are just estimates, not precise measures. If the CD is protected from oxidation of the aluminum substratum, the lifespan and remain high.Proper storage and maintenance can resolve many issues of data corruption. One problem that is unforeseen is if all computer technology was destroyed. There would be no way to read the information retained on the disc. It would be like trying to translate ancient Meroitic script. A mass collapse of civilization would result in the loss of the knowledge preserved on CDs. Although digital downloads have reduced CD sales, it continues to be a popularly used format. 

References 

Krzewinski, Mary. The Handy Science Answer Book. New York: Visible Ink Press,1997. 

   Brain, Marshall.  "How CDs Work"  01 April 2000.  HowStuffWorks.com. <http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/cd.htm>  14 December 2015.  



  

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Jean-Paul Sartre - In Our Time BBC Radio 4



Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980) was a philosopher and one of the major figures of existentialism. Not only was he a philosopher, but an activist. He was also a writer who produced novels. Sartre covered topics such as human knowledge, the question of existence, and the question of freedom. Born in Paris to a middle class family, Sartre lost his father at an early age. At an early age he was introduced to literature and gained a love a books. Simone de Beauvoir had a major impact on his life. They were lovers and collaborators to the philosophical condition. His most famous work was Being and Nothingness: An Essay On Phenomenological Ontology. This essay discussed the nature of freedom. This takes an element of consciousness. The idea "we are condemned to be free" challenges the determinism of our environment. Sartre was convinced that writing was a great form of resistance to oppression. Although writing can be used for reactionary purposes, there can be others who challenge them. Sartre rejected capitalism, colonialism, and imperialism.Jean-Paul Sartre supported anti-colonial liberation struggles and favored the Algerian movement for independence. Sartre attempted to combine both Marxism and existentialism into one ideology. He was supportive of the U.S.S.R, but he had some disagreements with certain ideas. Sartre's Marxism puts less emphasis on technocratic economy theory, but on its early philosophical roots. When developing complex ideas it is inevitable that contradictions can be avoided. To summarize Sartre's philosophy in a simplistic terms "we are what we do."       

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Bashar Al-Assad, Syria, and the Escalating War in the Middle East

Bashar Al-Assad has been the president of Syria since the year 2000. After his father died, he inherited the presidency. He now faces one of the biggest challenges of his rule with the civil war and military intervention from the US, France, and possibly soon NATO. Russia has now intervened on his behalf to stop ISIS advancement. As much as the West wants Assad's removal, this would cause further destabilization. The various ethnic, religious, and cultural groups would attempt to destroy one another. An Islamist take over would be inevitable, seeing as they are the most organized political force. This parallels the US invasion of Iraq in which a leader is demonized and the public is convinced war is necessary. Removal of the Baathist regime in Iraq was a disaster. This could be expanded enormously if replicated in Syria. The West believes that the collapsing situation is entirely the fault of  President Assad. The US has sought to remove the Baathist regime for decades. The disorder caused by the Arab Spring provided an opportunity to do so. The US- EU block has no intention of negotiated settlement, but expanding the war. Doing so would place a client regime in  Syria and eliminate a regional challenger to Israel. At first these protests that emerged were peaceful , but they were eclipsed by full scale rebellion. Eventually, a simplistic narrative emerged. Assad was a villainous butcher murdering his own people and the rebels were fighting for a just cause. None of this represents the nature of the deterioration of the state. The country is going through a balkanization process similar to Yugoslavia. It attracted external powers and resulted in devastating consequences that will last for decades.
        To fully comprehend the crisis, one must know about president Bashar Al-Assad. He is a member of the Alawite Shia Muslim community, which is the minority that rules Syria. Bashar was originally not going to be the successor to Hafez Al-Assad. Basil  Assad was heir apparent, but he died in a car crash in 1994. Bashar was studying medicine with the intent to be an ophthalmologist.  Bashar was then groomed for the presidency. Bashar Al-Assad  went to  the military academy at Homs, attained the rank of colonel, and then worked as an advisor  to the government. President Assad was actually a reformer. During the early stages of his presidency, political prisoners were released, some media restrictions were lifted, and some criticism of the political system was tolerated .


The reforms were being implemented at a sluggish pace. The also were being hindered by the army, the Baath Party, and the Alawite minority. The conservative elements of Syrian society reacted to change they hated or feared, Assad was being a political realist, understanding reforms had to happen to keep the fragile country unified. He did not have the support for the reforms in the political establishment. These elements could not completely eliminate them, but delay their development.Simultaneously, the population was growing restless. Bashar Al-Assad once said that "democracy was a tool for a better life"This could not be rushed due to ethnic and religious hatreds.There were some accomplishments of his presidency despite opposition to the reforms. Syria by 2001 had cellphones, satellite television, and was looking to expand a business sector into information technology. Assad continued to keep the economy state controlled, but it was believed that it would transition to a free market. Assad continues to vociferously oppose Israel. It was the same policy of his father that has continued. The reason is obvious, due to Israel's past conflicts with Syria and the occupation of the Golan Heights. There was a shift in policy in regards to Lebanon. Syria began gradually withdrawing troops. Full with draw happened in 2005, when Syria was accused of involvement in the assassination of  former prime minister Rafik Hariri. Bashar Al-Assad's strategy was to maintain a close alliance with Hezbollah, Hamas, and an alleged relationship with Islamic Jihad. It is a way to challenge Israel indirectly. The Syrian army is not as powerful as Israel's so Assad continues to ally his country with Iran. This acts a balance to Israeli power. Syria's foreign policy is pragmatic using different alliances and groups to achieve its objectives. 

Assad visits Moscow in the 2000s  
Russia during the Cold War was a major ally of Syria. The collapse of the Soviet Union was a negative development for Syria in terms of access to economic aid. Bashar Al-Assad revived the Syria- Russia alliance. He understood it was imperative during the early 2000s. The Bush administration had made regime change an official policy. Syria was a target and declared part of the "axis of evil."  Relations between the US and Syria have never been normal, but at this point the rhetoric became more bellicose. Syria would have to rely on Russia to block the US from a possible invasion. Assad then looked to other countries to gain diplomatic support. One leader known to challenge US global dominance was former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez. Bashar Al-Assad reached out to Venezuela on a number of political and international issues. The reason for this was to rebuild Syria's socialist values by showing solidarity with like minded governments and the global south. This included making diplomatic  overtures to  various Latin American nations.

Hugo Chavez and Bashar Al-Assad 
This would allow him to increase his popularity and alter international public opinion. Attempting to place Syria in a non-aligned stance would give it more options. The only real commitment it has is to Iran. Syria has received generous assistance from the Islamic Republic. Even though the government is secular, it still holds the alliance with Iran because they are of the Shia Muslim sect. This factors into regional politics that are divided by Sunni lead governments and Shia led governments .Bashar Al-Assad's foreign policy moves vexed the US. Being a pragmatist he attempted ease tensions in 2006 by saying "I am not Saddam Hussein I'm willing to negotiate." This was during the Hezbollah war with Israel, which Syria supported. This explains why Bashar Al-Assad still has a portion of support. His anti-Israel stance makes him popular among certain sections of the Syrian population. Relations with Turkey were deteriorating before the civil war. Water rights were are major source of contention. When Turkey opened its borders during the early stages of the civil war it was to undermine Syria, not save refugees.

Assad and Qaddafi
Another policy that the Bashar Al-Assad presidency advocated was relations with Libya. Most Arab states either ignored or isolated Libya. The Gulf monarchies held much contempt for the North African nation. Syria, being marginalized itself felt that diplomatic relations with Libya would be in its best interest. Syria and Libya had attempted Pan-Arab mergers in the past, but negotiations collapsed. When NATO commenced bombing in accordance to UN Resolution 1973, Syria objected.It was becoming apparent that Syria was the next country for a military strike.Protests were increasing in Syria with demands for an end to the state of emergency, restoration of civil rights, and general political reforms. These were objectives that Assad wanted, but were stopped by the army and the Baath Party elite. Now, he could push these reforms through citing the public's demand for them. The protesters  demands were not to depose the Bashar Al-Assad, but to  see the long awaited reforms happen. The state of emergency laws were lifted and Kurds were allowed to vote.The reforms came too late and the balkanization process already began. Islamist attacks occurred, ethnic cleansing directed at Kurds was sparked, and the West started arming a number of groups. The Baathist government made the situation worse by doing crackdowns of protests. Homs and Damascus were areas of intense civil disorder. The military response that Bashar Al-Assad advocated only resulted in civilian deaths and the rise of  terrorist organizations. Government backed Shabeeha (militia) were fighting numerous anti-regime forces.The US, UK, France, and most the EU began calling for Assad removal. The crisis they failed to understand was more intricate than Assad versus the people. Around the fall of 2011, Syria was suspended from the Arab League. The following year the country had reached full scale civil war. Assad now faces one of the biggest challenges to his presidency. His survival seems uncertain, but if he falls it could lead to more chaos.
     Syria was a creation of the mandate system. It was agreed that France would administer Syria after World War I. To make it easier to control areas were divided based on ethnic and  religious tension. The Kurds had to remain separated among each other between Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. If unified they could have formed a powerful state. The Shia and Sunni Muslims were put in the same state and it was only a matter of time before conflict would be ignited. The demographics and geography  of play a role in the current conflict. The majority of the population is Sunni Arab with a government run by an Alawite Shia Muslim Arab minority. There are Kurds present in the north of the country. Druze Arabs and Christians are prevalent in the southern regions. Iraq under Saddam Hussein was the opposite having a Sunni minority led government. Syria and Iraq had poor relations despite both having Baath Party branches. This tension was both ideological, national, and religious. Syria's relations with Iraq improved when Saddam Hussein was deposed. This gave Syria an opportunity to capture support of the Shia majority in Iraq.



The Shia majority in Iraq exacted vengeance upon the Sunni minority. Militias and what were essentially death squads emerged.Sunnis decided to take up arms in Iraq and this would be the harbinger to ISIS. Armed groups who found themselves unable to overthrow Assad, relocated in Iraq  and established bases of operations. They continue to attack Syria while other armed groups compete for power. The Al-Nusra Front is an organization  that is Islamist, while the Free Syria Army consists of defectors. Hezbollah provides assistance to Assad and were helpful in major military victories. Iran who does not want to see an ISIS victory and a loss of Syria would be devastating.These armed groups are organizing based on ethnic and religious hatreds. It has been documented that ISIS continues to engage in ethic cleansing of the Kurds. The Yazidi were subject to similar atrocities in Iraq.  Bashar Al-Assad's fall would only escalate racial and religious confrontation.
      This crisis has now attracted the intervention of European powers. The UK has now began bombing targets. Germany is still deciding witch path to take. Russia has said that the best method to defeating ISIS is to support Assad. His army has been fighting both armed opposition and terrorist organizations. After the Paris attacks, France used the tragedy to advance an aggressive foreign policy.President Francois Hollande's foreign policy has become interventionist expanding missions to Syria, Mali, and the African Central Republic.France wants influence over its former colonies and continues to use military force to do so. This revived imperial conquest has been justified as a solution to the refugee crisis. The argument is that if Assad is removed and ISIS is dismantled by airstrikes the problem will end. This would exacerbate an already precarious situation.The increase of bombing causes more civilians to flee to Europe. Forming a no-fly zone will not be effective, because it is only partitioning the country by plane. The people who cannot flee are held hostage by ISIS in the territories they control. The only way to remove ISIS would be by ground invasion. This would not ensure success; it will only provide more motivation for resistance. It seems that their are two versions of imperialism competing for regional control. There is the US-EU block supporting armed groups or as it is phrased "moderate opposition" against Assad. Simultaneously, the United States has sent more military advisors to Iraq to fight ISIS. Special forces are becoming more engaged in Syria and Iraq, which parallels America's involvement in Vietnam. It began with military advisors coming to a country supporting an unpopular government, despised by the majority of people. Russia, which has a significant investment in Syria wants the Assad government intact. It has been alleged that Russia is only bombing areas in which moderate opposition occupy. What the West refers to as moderate opposition is not moderate at all. They are groups that formed internally or externally and have been funded by the US, UK, and the Gulf monarchies. Turkey has even been accused by Russia of buy oil and financially supporting ISIS. It is no longer a secret that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have armed Sunni groups with the intent of overthrowing the Baathist government.Oman could possibly be the only Gulf monarchy that Syria has left as a friend. King Salman's aim is to wipe out the a competitor and undermine a much weakened Arab nationalist regime. Seeing as the Gulf monarchies fall into the Western orbit, this works in the favor of the Western powers. Four years this conflict has lasted and it could be the catalyst for an even larger conflict beyond the Middle East.
         There are number of pivotal considerations that should be examined. The effects of  the collapse of the Bashar Al-Assad presidency would reverberate through out the region. This would leave a power void in which extremism will take over. It should be assumed that Kurdish independence is on the horizon. The peshmerga has been doing much of the fighting against ISIS. It is incorrect to assume that the Kurds of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran would tolerate the status quo. They have been oppressed by Syrian, Iraqi, Turkish, and Iranian governments. Their demands will have to be met, before it becomes violent. If Bashar Al-Assad is to survive, he will become a regionally popular political figure. He will try to present this as a Syrian victory over invaders. Assad's government could possibly become more repressive after the war is over. Rebuilding after the damage will take an enormous amount of time. It is inevitable that there will be economic and environmental devastation, no matter who wins. The refugees will come in even larger numbers. Seeing as infrastructure has been destroyed, the country may not be livable for the majority of the population. European powers have to right to bomb Syria or Iraq. It was the invasion of Iraq that created a center for terrorism and now it is to the point of no return. The West will only induce more disorder. The only solution is to allow Assad to fight ISIS, while the pershmerga provides assistance. Iran has to be part of the strategy of decimating the terrorist organization.The Arab world must solve its own problems rather than looking to the West. It seems that a diplomatic solution would be more preferred than military force. It has to be understood that Bashar Al-Assad may remain president and for the time being, is providing a level of stability.      

References 

"Bashar Al-Assad." Bio.com. A&E Networks Television, 8 Dec. 2014. Web. 03 Dec. 2015. <http://www.biography.com/people/bashar-al-assad-20878575>.

Dorsey, James. "Are President Assad’s Reforms Too Little Too Late?" Al Arabiya News. N.p., 17 Apr. 2011. Web. 3 Dec. 2015. <https://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/04/17/145753.html>.