Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Former President Blaise Compaore Offers to Return to Broker a Peace Deal


It was in 2014 that Blaise Compaore fled Burkina Faso. Now he is offering to comeback to the country to negotiate a peace deal with armed groups fighting the government. To an astute observer, this is not about making peace, rather Compore's attempt to return to power after five years in exile. He came to power in a coup in 1987, which resulted in the murder of Thomas Sankara. Now it appears he once more wants to seize power by extralegal means. This may not be the most successful plan, yet there is another alternative he is using. Writing a letter to President Roch Marc Christian Kabore he offered to help with reconciliation efforts among warring parties. President Kabore and hsi government have no intention of making peace with armed groups. Allegedly the Islamic State of the Greater Sahara is active in the country and other bordering states. This may explain terrorist attacks that have occurred recently in Burkina Faso. Dicko Oumar  a Burkinabe politician, makes the statement that when Compaore was in power such problems did not exist. The challenge of removing a longtime leader is what happens afterwards. The negative effect of deposing authoritarian presidents is that instability and insurrection occur in a power struggle. Compaore has connections and negotiation skills which did allow for the release of hostages in Mali. So far, there is no plan for securing his return to Burkina Faso. Others want him to return for another reason. Some desire to see Blaise Compaore stand trial for his human rights abuses during his presidency. With elections only a year away and growing violence politicians are going to struggle to gain support of the citizens of Burkina Faso.      

Friday, May 24, 2019

Theresa May Resigns


After failing to get an agreement on terms of EU exit, Theresa May decided to resign. She promised that she would remain until some consensus was reached, but the political conditions proved to be more challenging. Fall out from the referendum has created a UK struggling to confront both economic and social challenges. It is possible there could be another extension to the deadline for complete withdraw from the European Union once more. The UK's attempt to leave the European Union shows that Europe is becoming more divided due to the financial crisis, refugee migration, and the nature of supranationalism. There have been claims that the international markets have reached a state of recovery, but the middle class and poor still struggle. The public has little understanding of the international financial banking system and the neoliberal foundation in which it is based. Brexit is a revolt against neoliberal capitalism, immigration, and globalization. Failure of establishment politicians to recognize the frustration of a public that feels governments are not responsive has made people turn to far right xenophobic nativist  nationalism as an alternative. Theresa May became Prime Minister in a time of confusion and political transformation. A government under such strains involving the question of passports, Ireland, and tariffs was unlikely to survive. Her resignation now has caused more political factionalism as members of government seek the premiership. The Conservative Party could see a rapid decline in public support, if they cannot successfully reach an agreement on leaving the European Union. Some are even calling for another referendum. Even with a new Prime Minister an agreement being reached soon still remains out of reach. Theresa May leaves behind a UK stuck in political factionalism and an uncertain future.      

Monday, May 13, 2019

Engineered State Destruction

The collapse of  states can occur to multiple factors. Historically, many of the world's most powerful civilizations have either fallen due to warfare, corruption, and over expansion of territory that is governed. There is a  phenomenon in which world powers target smaller states that do not comply with their geopolitical objectives. Engineered state destruction is the deliberate attempt to harm the political, social, and economic foundation of a country. This method of conquest can be disguised in the contemporary era as humanitarian intervention, democracy promotion, or the concept of the responsibility to protect. Such arguments tend to hide more malevolent purposes. World powers compete with one another for global control. Currently, there exists a Russia and China block opposing a US-EU block. States that do not have enough military or economic strength find themselves either involved in proxy wars or in the middle of this large world power competition. If  weaker states cannot resist they will find themselves victim of engineered state destruction. The tools of the process involve economic pressure, military strikes, acts of sabotage or the encouragement of insurgency. There also is the element of exacerbating ethnic and social tensions within a state. Regime change has in particular been a symbol of engineered state destruction. Creating or inducing more violence around the world does not form global stability. It mostly empowers the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, while simultaneously imposing a system of neocolonial  imperialism. The aftermath of  engineered state destruction has negative long term effects. Broken societies cannot create stable nation states. As a result, this induces mass migration. European nations are having difficulty accommodating African and Arab refugees from the events of the Arab Spring. Following this, it give the far-right credibility that manipulate the population's fear and hatreds of other races or religions. Entire regions descend into war zones creating even more humanitarian crisis in the world. Engineered state destruction goes beyond exploiting other countries, rather it seeks to wage war on the populations that reside in those countries.
      Economic pressure can be a means of inducing engineered state destruction. Employed in a number of ways it has the ability to dismantle the stability of  society. Sanctions have become nothing more than a method of more powerful nations to bully weaker states. Targeted sanctions against government officials is a legitimate means of voicing discontent or condemnation with a country's actions. However, sanctions that target industries or the country's economy in general is designed to cause the maximum amount of turmoil to the population. The argument is that as conditions worsen, the citizens will associate it with the current regime and therefore overthrow it. Such a theory that has been promoted by neoconservative circles has not proven to be effective. General sanctions inflict damage on the population and targeted sanctions stop the leadership. Yet, it appears that mostly general sanctions are used. Under such strain, nations  are put on the brink of collapse. The sanctions on Iran are designed to put financial burden on the citizen. Not only do sanctions effect nations that are victims of them, but other countries that engage in trade.Nations that choose to purchase Iranian oil could face certain penalties. China if it wanted to make a purchase of Iranian oil could face sanctions itself. Sanctions are being used to make certain countries compliant with the US-EU international political vision. Russia since the Obama administration has remained under sanctions since Ukraine's political crisis. When seeing the contradictory use of sanctions, it becomes clear that it is not about human rights promotion. The fact that Israel has never face strict sanctions for it role in civilian deaths in the West Bank and Gaza Strip demonstrates hypocrisy in terms of international law. Another means of exerting economic pressure is excluding nations from international commerce. Blockades and embargoes stifle a state's economic security. Cuba has been subject to such measures since 1962. Russian and Chinese assistance prevented conditions from getting worse. Imports and exports are effected by these measures. If too much economic pressure is applied, it will evolve into economic warfare. Cutting off nations from international commerce and prevent other nations from bilateral business ties can result in social problems. Unemployment and at worse extremes food shortages can cause public discord. If there is a embargo on a particular product such as agricultural goods, this would negatively effect farmers. Blockades can be either used to prevent imports arriving or to halt nations from exporting commodities all together. A situation like that can become lethal when medicine is withheld. Financial aid can also be used to threaten weaker countries with the developed nations using it as leverage. Sanctions, embargoes, and blockades are forms of economic pressure that can decimate a country socially.
        Military strikes and warfare are the more simplistic forms of engineered state destruction. Aggressive war has been waged against the developing world since the end of World War II. Acts of violence are disguised are democracy promotion, nation building, or a just humanitarian cause. There are ulterior motives, but the public is presented with a distorted image of the political and social conditions. Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ivory Coast,  Afghanistan, Mali, Yemen,  and Somalia  have been subject to Western interference and aggression. The Iraq War was a demonstration of engineered state destruction through military force. The US invaded decimated infrastructure through bombings and ground invasion. The arguments were that Iraq was producing chemical and biological weapons. The claim was that the authoritarian regime of Saddam Hussein had to be removed on humanitarian grounds. Although collaboration from local residents is helpful to military designs, there will always be resistance to an occupying force. The fall of Saddam Hussein did not bring the Iraq War to a close in 2003. An insurgency grew from former Baathist and a population that did not want to submit to a US created provisional government. The disorder allowed terrorist organizations to easily enter the country as well as encourage new one to emerge locally. The US response was to have a surge of troops. Promises of reconstruction have for  the past decades gone nowhere. When invading a country the intent is to do as much demolition of  public space as possible. The Geneva Convention forbids attacks on civilians, yet this is not adhered to. Military strikes are not just to eradicate armies; they also plan on eliminating potential resistance. Pacification requires the elimination of the population that seeks to arm themselves against occupation. War devastates land, infrastructure, and causes an immense loss of life. Rebuilding a country after war could take decades. Afghanistan was subject to engineered state destruction by two major superpowers. Russia invaded to support the failing Marxist regime and prior to that the US was collaborating with radical political Islamists. Russia's objective was to keep Afghanistan in its sphere of influence and the US policy was to undermine the Soviet Union. As a result, Afghanistan became a war of proxy in the Cold War. From 1979 to 1989 the operations in Afghanistan would be the largest in the CIA's history. The United States would invade in 2001 using the common tactic of  bombing with aircraft and having a ground invasion. The use of drones does not recuse civilian casualties. Somalia has been subject to drone strikes and there is little evidence that such measures have reduced terrorism. A country ravaged by war cannot fully function and afterwards may remain dependent on financial aid and reconstruction assistance. The problem with military intervention as a method is that it puts the invader at risk. The burden of soldier deaths and finance make long term engagements not feasible. The least amount of effort involved in engineered state destruction ensures a greater chance of success. Indirect methods can be employed to achieve an objective.
        Fomenting insurrection or use of sabotage has been used as a method of state destruction. Providing assistance to armed groups, terrorist organizations, or encouraging coups has been a means to induce regime change. Unlike military strikes, this process takes more time. Causing disturbances in other states and countries may take decades. The advantage is that certain countries could be struggling with internal ethnic and political conflict, which enable larger powers to interfere. Yugoslavia rapidly began to descend into civil war and ethnic conflict with the death of Broz Tito in 1980. Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia, Slovenia,  Bosnia and Herzegovina began to declare independence in 1991. War soon followed and European powers too notice. Germany and the United States sided with Croatia. Russia became closer to Serbia during the conflict. There was an interest in seeing Yugoslavia dismantled mainly because the Balkans throughout history had been subject to external influence western Europe, the German states, and was at a time colonized by the Ottoman Empire. A socialist model of economy and politics was not acceptable to a new Europe no longer divided by communism. Even though Yugoslavia did not ascribe to Soviet communism, it would have been unacceptable of it to remain is a neoliberal capitalist economic system. Although the disintegration was an internal matter of the Federal Socialist Republic of Yugoslavia, other European countries became involved and contributed to the process.The engineered state destruction did not end with the Dayton Accords, but reached a new level with the bombing of Kosovo. Serbia was blamed for the entire collapse of  Yugoslavia, even though there were multiple factors contributing to its demise. NATO engaged in an aggressive campaign on the basis of protecting Albanians from ethnic strife. The whole nation was at war with itself and the Yugoslav Army fighting the various republics. Civilians became caught in the crossfire and NATO aggression only mad the humanitarian situation worse. Kosovo still remains a disputed territory. Syria has been victim to a similar fate. Since 2011 Syria has been in a violent civil war, which has attracted both Russia and the United States to get more involved in regional conflicts. The United States has been aiding the Democratic Forces of Syria and possibly other armed groups. Russia has come to counter the US, but supporting the Baathist government. Syria gradually has gone through Balkanization in which Kurdish areas and Sunni Muslim areas have defacto  independence. The plan of engineered state destruction relies on internal discord, religious division, and ethnic strife. ISIS and the Islamic State have not been fully defeated yet there are other Arab states that are assisting in the Syrian civil war. The Gulf monarchies also are attempting to remove the Bashir Al-Assad presidency. For countries that cannot be invaded or be a place of covert action sabotage can be utilized. Cyber warfare will become common place in the future. Acts of sabotage will not even require agents in a certain area. Technology can enable attacks from a distance. Uprisings and armed insurrection can also be induced by foreign entities funding political opposition. USA Aid did this in Ukraine, which the effects only occurred decades later. Venezuela has come under attack from the US, which seeks to remove the Maduro presidency. Recognizing the opposition as the legitimate government is a way to exacerbate internal protests and a coup. Encouraging disorder and disturbance is a method of  engineered state destruction that appears to have the least amount of risk.
         Engineered state destruction has been used effectively against various developing countries. The economic system of neoliberal capitalist free markets remains intact. Neocolonial imperialism remains the main system of operation for the platform of international politics. Using the methods of engineered state destruction ensures that the US-EU block remains dominant. However, for its success, there are irreversible consequences. The use of military strikes, inducing rebellion, or perpetual warfare causes mass immigration, economic uncertainty, and more erratic regions. Refugees from the aftermath of conflict and upheaval will flee either to Europe, North America, New Zealand, or Australia. If numerous crisis like situations happen around Africa, Asia, and the Middle East refugees may dramatically increase beyond what the West can accommodate. Numerous questions of assimilation, integration, and citizenship are debated. More immigration only encourages the xenophobic nativist nationalists on the far-right to be more politically active. This only continues the cycle of economic and political exploitation  by European countries and the United States. Nations and empires have collapsed on their own through out history and many times events that came afterward were devastating. The end of the Ottoman Empire left Arab states under a mandate system with borders they did not create. Syria, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon's borders were creations of the French as well as the British. Combined with the dedication to the establishment of Israel, this would be a source of conflict for half a century. Too often large powers use state or empire collapse to advance their own interest.  The manipulation of regions and states has become a method of foreign policy and international relations. The United Nations when established to ensure the protection of international law and human rights. Now it has become part of designs for engineered state destruction through UN Security Council Resolutions. An international body targets states that do not comply with geopolitical designs of western nations. The problem is that the general public cannot recognize engineered state destruction when it used by their leaders. Either it is presented as humanitarian assistance, protection of civilian life, or ensuring a world safe for democracy.The error from foreign policy circles is the notion that chaos can be directed and produce a desirable result. It may appear illogical  yet there are motivations to this model of thought. Gaining as much power in the global political landscape has been an objective for most countries. Economics and business becomes a factor when discussing natural resources of interest. The ideological vision has come to prominence with the idea that liberal democracy should forcefully be imposed around the world. So far the goals have not been reached in certain continents because neocolonial imperialism is being rejected by the global south. Engineered state destruction has become a weapon to impose hegemony on those were once subjugated by the former European colonial empires.                                               

Friday, May 10, 2019

US Imposes More Tariffs on China


Trade negotiations collapsed between the US and China. It appears that the trade war that was started by the Trump administration may not be ending soon. Failure to reach an agreement will have a negative impact on the stock market. Investors become nervous at the prospect of uncertainty. The US public may also see increasing prices on goods from China. The retaliation from China has been to go after the agricultural sector. This could harm the base that elected Donald Trump to office. Farmers have felt the effects of trade war, however the Trump administration has sought to counter this. China is the world's second largest economy and trying to have a trade war would be deleterious to America's economic health. President Donald Trump has constantly blamed China for some of America's economic challenges during the 2016 election and has continued to show open hostility. If a trade war continues it may evolve into some form of economic warfare. Disputes over intellectual property theft and tariffs must be addressed by the two nations. President Xi Jingping has expressed that China will not accept  any agreement that undermines China's economic interest.Economic competition can also influence relations between other Asian nations. North Korea may be used to harass China, which has substantial investments in that country. Attempts at diplomacy have failed and in an indirect way are related to the US-China trade war. The United States may get more aggressive with North Korea as a means to harass China. The total estimate of US tariffs on Chinese imports is $200 billion. The measure will soon go into effect and there is a level of uncertainty how drastically this will effect global markets.     

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

South Africa Votes



South Africa will be holding its general election on Wednesday May 8, 2019. The ANC may be having its biggest challenge yet, with a public dissatisfied with corruption, economic struggle, and a general lack of equality for all citizens. Poverty, xenophobia, and the need for land distribution are issue that can no longer be ignored. Cyril Ramaphosa president of South Africa and ANC  candidate has attempted to address corruption, but he may be blocked by the remaining Jacob Zuma faction. President Zuma's fall from grace had badly damaged the image of the ANC. Mmusi Maimane  of the Democratic Alliance hopes to gain the presidency and get his party more seats in Parliament. Julius Malema of the Economic Freedom Fighters has the most progressive  agenda calling for redistribution of wealth. It seems that South Africa has capable leaders who are eager to make changes. However, the question remains who among them are willing to confront the problem of white ownership of farmland and industry in South Africa. The black majority needs economic power, which they were deprived of under Afrikaner rule.   Which ever party or candidate South Africa votes for, it should be a person who meets their needs. Above all it should be a leader will to do what is required to reverse half a century of Apartheid and injustice. Sustainable economic growth should be a priority as well as improving South Africa influence in BRICS.