Sunday, August 27, 2017

Is it the end for Thailand's Shinawatra dynasty?


Yinluck Shinawatra  has fled the country. The Shinawatras have been a part of Thai politics since 2001 and dominated the landscape. Accused of a rice subsidies scheme she failed to appear in court. She was not removed from office by legal means. A coup brought Prayut  Chan O-Cha to power. The reason she fled is that it was clear that this would not be a fair trial. Thailand has become in effect a defacto military dictatorship . The 2014 coup has caused instability that has not been seen since 1992 and 2006. The Shinawatras both Thanksin and Yinluck are not completely innocent. They came to power through patronage and an unusual manipulation of state funds. This latest event may not entirely mean the Shinawatras are neutralized. A large portion of the rural population still supports them. Yinluck could start a movement from outside the country, which could see her coming back after the fall of the military government. Could the West mold her into a Aung San Suu Kyi ? It could be a possibility. Elected leaders do not last long   in Thailand. This demonstrates that a Western model of democracy may not work in Thailand. Class conflict is clearly causing problems in the Asian nations. It seems the poor have been left behind and in this family dynasty tapped into their struggle. The middle class and the upper class seem to support the military, because they have similar far right convictions. Thailand's future seems unknown, but it is clear the rule of law has been defeated.  

Sunday, August 20, 2017

North Korea, The United States, Nuclear Weapons, and The Possibility of a East Asia War

The United States has condemned the missile launches of North Korea. This has gone far beyond mere disapproval put turned into threats of war. North Korea does not have the ability to develop an arsenal on the same equivalent as the United States, yet the country is being treated like an international security threat. Reckless statements from Kim Jung Un and Donald Trump have caused the situation to escalate. Prior to this provocation by the United States, there were alleged attempts to start negotiations with North Korea. Donald Trump's limited understanding of Asia and the wider world could cause mass global conflict. North Korea by many estimations is not a threat. It is a nation that is struggling with poverty, dependent on China to an extent, and is now facing a wave of diplomatic isolation. If there were to be an assessment of a more violent country, the United States would surpass most. The United States currently has attacked Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria,  and continues to engage in drone strikes in both Yemen as well as Somalia. This has caused more death and destruction than North Korea is even capable of. Part of the blame rests on mainstream media which presents North Korea as being on the same level of military strength. It is apparent that regime change has been a part of the agenda, which explains contemporary attitudes. Even if North Korea were to dispose of its nuclear weapons, the possibly of US attack would be imminent. The reasons are clear in the context of US geopolitical designs. The US has the intention of maintaining dominance in Asia and being confrontational with China. Nuclear weapons can act as a deterrence from US aggression. These latest missile launches are not declarations of war, but indications of fear within North Korea. The paranoia of US attack normally happens under Republican presidencies. Normalization of relations will most likely never happen as long as the US wants to remain the sole superpower on Earth. North Korea could become another Iraq with horrible consequences for East Asia. 
      North Korea does have a large military, but it is not as powerful as presented. According to official statics the North Korean  military  looks impressive. Estimates vary, but is believed that North Korea has 1.9 million service members and 7.7 million reservists. There weaponry consists of 3,500 battle tanks, 563 aircraft, 21,000 artillery pieces, and 302 helicopters. This is diminutive compared to the United States. The US has bases around the world (80 bases in 70 countries) and allies that are willing to fight. North Korea would not have the ability to invade the US. History has shown that the US is the stronger country in terms of total military strength. The United States has 1,066,600 employed, 13,900 aircraft, 920 attack helicopters, and 72 submarines. While North Korea has the same number of submarines, they do not have the financial strength to reach America's level. Donald Trump also wants to see the expansion of the US military. He insisted to congress that defense spending should be increased to $54 billion. North Korea if attacked by the United States would have to fight both South Korea, Australia,and Japan. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to see a re militarized Japan having dominance over Asia. China and Korea provide him excuses for a military build up, which would not benefit Japan economically.The desire to be a stronger world power still is a vision in the minds of many Japanese conservatives. Prime Minister   Malcolm Turnbull  has already stated that he is committed to the US agenda in regards to North Korea. North Korea would be in a vulnerable predicament. The only assistance they could get is from either Russia or China. China does not want to have a US presence close to its border. However, it does not want to see a North Korea too powerful, that is its influence is weakened. 


Russia may be more willing to assist in a conflict, seeing relations with the US are at a nadir. Between allegations of hacking in the 2016 election, the Syrian Civil War, and disagreements over Ukraine US-Russian relations may never be repaired. Russia could use the North Korean standoff to pressure the United States. Both Russia and North Korea are under sanctions from the US. The two countries have a common interest in this perspective. North Korea does not have many alternatives for defense. President Vladmir Putin just like Xi Jingping  has urged North Korea and the US to seek dialogue, rather than confrontation. Their reasons are related to their current circumstances. China has been experiencing tensions with India and with its neighbors in the South China Sea. These areas could become combat zones if China decides to assist North Korea in a conflict. Russia has to figure out what to do about a rapidly expanding NATO in Eastern Europe. Although the Cold War is over this military alliance is still active and directed at Russia. The alliance has been looking for justifications to maintaining its existence and Russia is a convenient  scapegoat. It would not be surprising to see NATO attack if Russia contributes militarily to North Korea. There are numerous complications that would follow a strike on North Korea. 


North Korea does not have the military bases or air power of the United States. If its defenses are not on the same level or quality it would need help from other allies. Russia and China may not be reliable, so basically North Korea would be left to fight alone. During the Korean War it was the People's Liberation Army that prevented North Korean collapse. China has agreed to the UN sanctions, which shows that they are not willing to support North Korea entirely. This does not seem uncharacteristic when examined through the context of East Asian history. China has since the Tang dynasty wanted to keep Korea under a form of political influence. A North Korea that is more powerful would be harder to control. At the moment, North Korea does not have the military strength to challenge any power that seeks to attack it. 
       The reason North Korea is pursuing nuclear weapons is that it realizes that it will be invaded. This is a desperate effort to prevent another US war that has long been delayed. the first Korean War ended in cease fire establishing the demilitarized zone and the heavily guarded border at the 38th parallel. Ever since 1953, North Korea has been resisting the US and its geopolitical designs. The nuclear weapons program to North Korea represents an expression of national sovereignty and a statement that they will not be bullied by any foreign power. This is the extension  of the Juche principle in which the nation becomes through communist revolution fully self-reliant. This could be one possible explanation into having a nuclear weapons program. There could also be after half a century paranoid fears about what the US might do. If one sees the military actions of the United States, it would logical to assume that it would be the more belligerent country. Currently, there are no indications that war will break out in the next month or so, but intense rhetoric has made some nervous. Donald Trump had stated " the country is locked and loaded" and in response Kim Jung Un claimed that his country had the capability to attack Guam. Both the United States and North Korea have created a paranoid atmosphere in which they think someone will attack. Nuclear weapons may be a way for North Korea to demonstrate strength, when in reality they have none to deter US aggression. Another reason North Korea could be developing a nuclear arsenal is to increase international prestige. The lugubrious fact is that smaller countries do not receive respect from the larger world powers. They are not treated equally under international law or given much a say at the United Nations. Having nuclear weapons demonstrates to larger countries that this is a place than cannot be subject to domination. The nuclear programme could also serve a more sinister purpose. It acts as a distraction to the citizens of North Korea, who do not see their daily lives improving. The program redirects anger or frustration into loyal patriotism. This ensures that Kim dynasty will rule indefinitely. A large state propaganda machine and military loyalty to Kim Jung Un  means there is little chance of dissent. 

     
The nuclear program does not have to be successful, but a means of political survival. This effort could best be spent investing in nuclear power plants. North Korea needs more electricity relative to its population. The pursuit of nuclear weapons may have benefits, but they are only temporary. It is still remains a mystery just how advanced the nuclear programme  is. The North Korean claims of conducting nuclear tests could be exaggerated or fabrications by the state. However, there are indications that tests were conducted in 2006, 2009, 2013, and 2016. The only indirect evidence is the quake magnitude scales. It has been difficult for observers to determine whether these are atomic bombs or hydrogen bombs. North Korea claims that it has detonated a hydrogen bomb, yet many are dubious about such pronouncements. There are debates on which element was used. Uranium or plutonium, it North Korea has nuclear capability would have to get these materials from somewhere. Uranium enrichment would be less cumbersome, compared to plutonium which require larger facilities. Most of the tests have been conducted at the Punggye-ri site. These are only tests, which means they have not erected an immense arsenal. North Korea would never be able to catch up to the United States in terms of nuclear capability. The concern over North Korea and nuclear weapons is not entirely about the country itself. The West does not want to see a nuclear armed Asia. This means that there would be certain behaviors they could not engage in across the region for fear of violent reaction. India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, yet have not used them on one another. Mutual assured destruction  is still applicable in the North Korean situation. North Korea simply would not attack due to the fact it is not on the same level of nuclear capability. This may prevent nations from attacking each other directly, but leads to wars of proxy. If one nation gets nuclear weapons others will want to do the same. Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and Malaysia may want nuclear weapons if North Korea builds a moderately sized arsenal. The United States will have to accept that North Korea and other nations will be nuclear powers. No one has a monopoly on technology and nuclear technology will proliferate.  
         The United States at times appeared to want negotiation with North Korea. However, the United States has adopted neoconservative foreign policy as its modus operandi. The United States has been on a path to impose its will on the nations of the world claiming to spread freedom and human rights. Donald Trump claimed that he rejected this perspective of nation building and imperialism. His America First policy when applied to foreign affairs, means the US will not get involved in particular international issues unless it benefits it some economic and political way. That is in conflict with the neoconservative vision that the world must be changed with military force and violence to create an American century. It appeared as if Trump was falling into this field of thought when ordering an airstrike on Syria. This was nothing more than another distraction from his failed domestic policies and poor operation of government. The sudden ire at North Korea came at a time when healthcare repeal failed in both houses. The American public has become so easily distracted that Trump's actions in regards to North Korea made them forget about the domestic issues still troubling the country. The administration so far has not attempted tax reform, immigration reform, or new infrastructure projects. Trump faces criticism from both factions of the American  political   spectrum. Declining poll numbers and shrinking support, Trump reacted in anger. A convenient scapegoat was the solution to deal with negative publicity and accusations. Kim Jung Un provide Trump an escape from the investigations in Russian connections and questions regarding his business practices. This distraction did not work in the way he intended it. It may have further alienated China, whom he wanted to establish closer economic ties with. All through the 2016 campaign he stated "China is ripping us off." This was another unsupported claim, but it spoke to America's racism. There is a new form of yellow peril emerging casting China as America's enemy. Trump and other extreme conservatives are presenting North Korea as being enabled by China, even though they did not share nuclear technology. When  President Xi Jingping  visited the US  in the early months of 2017, the meetings proved to be fruitless. It did not produce economic deals or agreements on North Korea that Trump wanted. 


       Donald Trump who is limited in his knowledge of  international affairs, assumed the response would be immediate. Very little has changed, however there seems to be intent on waging economic warfare on China. Doing this allows Trump to present himself as a great negotiator, who can control China's behavior. There is obvious tension between the US and China and it is indirectly projecting itself  in the sudden Korean crisis. Steve Bannon former White House strategist, expressed these thoughts about becoming confrontational with China. Trump continues to be influenced by Bannon's beliefs, which could lead to a much larger conflict.
      It is essential to realize that the current situation was induced by the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system. Besides the more pressing issue of the US not delivering on its food aid promise to North Korea, THAAD proves to be another act of belligerence. South Koreans even protested its development. The protesters claimed that it would only create more of a hateful atmosphere on the Korean peninsula. China also voiced its displeasure with the US missile project. THADD is an anti-ballistic missile and interceptor system. it is designed to strike ballistic  missiles  at its terminal phase. The system contains Patriot Advanced Capability 3 interceptors. Japan also has these as well, causing alarm in China. This has also cause a strain in relations between South Korea and China. The United States claims that THADD is in existence for countering North Korean missile attacks. So far, North Korea has conducted launches, but never has hit a target.


If North Korea was intent on destroying other countries, so far it has failed in its mission. The United States said this was necessary to protect the continental United States area from North Korea's short and medium range SCUD missiles. Previously, it was suggested that North Korea launched a satellite, which observers believed it was being used for espionage. The concern for China becomes the tracking of their ICBMs, causing the strategic balance in the region to shift. A THADD battery is present on Guam, two AN/TY -2 radars in Japan, both ship and land based radars through out the Pacific theater. Depending on particular launch points China's missiles could be tracked much easier. This could effect China's second strike capabilities as some foreign policy observers have noted. This could be intentional or the result of reckless planning on the part of the United States. It should be understood that their will be reactions when ever a missile installation or new military base is established in  the world many see it as a provocation. When North Korea dismantled the Yongbyon site cooling tower in 2008, it was hoping to get aid. The following year the promise was broken. North Korea is never rewarded when it complies with agreements in terms of nuclear weapons or missile technology. North Korea the again suspended nuclear weapons testing in 2012 in exchange for food aid. When this did not come, the launches stated once more. THADD could be a method of declaring war without specifically stating it.  The defense system only has created more paranoia and trepidation in regards to US intentions.    
        If this tension escalates, North Korea and the United States could go to war. This would certainly attract other world powers to East Asia and have Asian countries fighting one another. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and possibly Vietnam may join the US in such military actions. China would have to respond to an attack on North Korea.  Russia may eventually be pulled into such a conflict. India may not remain neutral in a greater East Asian war. Such a conflict would last a number of years and the outcomes will be equally devastating. There could be a chance that the US would use nuclear weapons on North Korea. After all, the US used atomic weaponry on Japan during World War II. It has thus so far been the only country to use such weapons during warfare, so  threats from the country should be taken seriously. Regime change and nation building produce human rights disasters on a large scale. Occupation and formation of another government in another country causes anger in the local population. Imposing democracy is not liberation at all, but an alternate version of imperialism. The US has sought to keep a dominant position in East Asia, after the defeat of the Japanese Empire. The rise China and US defeat in the Vietnam War weakened American strength in the region.  The Obama administration's Asia Pivot brought the US back to the region in a more belligerent manner with the expansion of naval forces in the Pacific. It is not wonder the chances of war have gotten worse. If there is a victory in a mass regional conflict the loss of human life would be astronomical. The remaining survivors would either be refugees heading to either Australia, Europe, or the United States. China could go through a balkanization  process expanding refugees levels. Many nations that were not part of the combat zone could not cope with such large populations. This explains why unification of the Korea peninsula under South Korean leadership has creates a problem . Koreans have been manipulated to an extent by the US and China into conflict with each other, being a staging ground for a war of proxy. The only solution to avoid mass regional war and the divide between Koreans is if they reach an agreement without the interference from world powers.

Further Reading 

Panda, Ankit. “What Is THAAD, What Does It Do, and Why Is China Mad About It?” The Diplomat, The Diplomat, 26 Feb. 2016, thediplomat.com/2016/02/what-is-thaad-what-does-it-do-and-why-is-china-mad-about-it/.

Silva, Cristina. “North Korea Says It Needs a Massive Army to Stand up To.” Newsweek, Newsweek, 30 Apr. 2017, www.newsweek.com/what-north-koreas-military-looks-compared-us-589688.

“North Korea's Nuclear Programme: How Advanced Is It?” BBC News, BBC, 10 Aug. 2017, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11813699.

Saturday, August 12, 2017

Uhuru Kenyatta Reaches Out To Opposition


Post-election violence has broken out in Kenya once more. Uhuru Kenyatta is accused of electoral fraud and corruption by the opposition. The president is calling for unity and collaboration with political opposition. Instances of violence in 2007 and 2017 demonstrate that western style democracy may not be the best political system for Kenya. This does not mean by default authoritarianism should be accepted as an alternative. The task now is to stop the interventions in Somalia, which is putting Kenya at risk, dealing with public debt, and making sure the country reaches development targets. Kenya should look to be a mediator in the conflicts in Sudan, while simultaneously enhancing relations with Ethiopia. Most importantly, Kenya must form a solution to the political factionalism that is dividing the nation. If a resolution is not formed, the country could slip into civil war. Such an event would destabilize East Africa and reverberate across the African continent.  Ralia Odinga if he wants to stay relevant, must work with President Kenyatta to prevent this. If the two political figures cannot reach some form of an agreement it may be time to change the electoral system. 

Thursday, August 3, 2017

The True Purpose of Education

Education has become a critical part of a functioning society. As the economy and jobs became more diversified the need for schooling became critical. The world is living in an age of mass literacy. There are some countries that lag behind in providing public education to its citizens, but this will soon change. The average laborer will have to have a multitude of skills to stay in the 21st century. While there are many who support education being available to all, the purpose of it has become lost. Education is not about getting a higher paying job or simply being a useful tool to society. There is a true purpose to  learning that extends beyond material  desires . The most pivotal goal is to create a critical thinker. A society will never advance if members do not develop original ideas or formulate different solutions to human problems. Beyond just becoming a mere analyst of information, there should be an intent to produce a new body of knowledge. There should be with in the process of education in which a student masters how to produce a body of work. This epistemological development should result in the ability to use logic to solve challenging questions. From this, an individual will have the ability to develop a new set of convictions. Education should seek to encourage discovery of new knowledge. Without that desire to know or curiosity many of the major milestones in science, history, philosophy, politics, law, or mathematics would have never seen light. Once a civilization loses its desire for curiosity or discovery it deteriorates. The final stage in this process of learning is that it is a life long journey. The acquisition of knowledge does not end with the completion of school, but continues. The world is rapidly changing both politically and economically. One must understand these changes if they are to adjust. Education is in its purest form the quest for ultimate knowledge.
    Critical thinking skills are essential to a decision making process. It involves being able to not only absorb information, but analyze and reason to an answer. Making connections from the information you are given and fully comprehending its relevance are important skills. This is a method to distinguish fact from fabrication. Asking simply why an event or a phenomenon  happened is the first step to critical thought. The teaching of basic reading, writing, and math provides a solid foundation. If a person has fully mastered critical thinking they will be able to read the text and extract its significance. This ability is not just for the sake of taking an examination or passing a class it is needed in life. If a citizen is going to participate in the electoral process they will need to understand how government works. They will need to examine carefully the backgrounds of the candidates they elect. There is a vast body of information widely available, but it takes meticulous deciphering. If most citizens cannot do this, then the political system will fall into turmoil. A personal who thinks critically will not accept the status quo or the commonly accepted conventions. Critical thinking can also help detect falsehoods presented as facts. Intelligent design, climate change denial, or any other type of pseudoscience has gained mainstream acceptance. The goal of primary, secondary, and tertiary education should be to develop critical thinking skills, while simultaneously exposing students to new knowledge. From this stage students will develop their own ideas.
        There comes a time when simply reading material is not enough. Some seek to produce their own body of work. This could be in any academic subject area including the arts, sciences, or mathematics. The intent should be the ability to formulate new ideas. This maintains a well developed society. Civilizations will collapse if they no longer attempt to innovate. This explains why societies the emphasize conformity will not progress. If the majority thinks the same way, new ideas will never emerge. What education should not be is indoctrination. The lugubrious element about public education is that to an extent it seeks to impose common values on all of its citizens, even some that would be aberrant. It is no secret that in public schools of most nations they glorify aspects of their history, yet ignore past abuses. The United States teaches students in particular that the country is a guiding force for democracy, while ignoring the nation was built on slavery, the genocide of the Native Americans, and the exploitation of working class people. The UK also in its public schools glorifies the past of the British Empire, even though it oppressed millions during its existence. More conservative societies may not question religious dogma. A Catholic school may not want to teach the theory of evolution or a madrassa. This is effectively stifling a student from information and knowledge. It limits their potential and the quality of their education. While there are issues in the teaching of history, science is another matter. Science has regularly been attacked when it conflicts with common held public convictions. Biology and astronomy are in particular targeted. This is done to preserve the idea of an all knowing and all powerful God. Such ideas seem antiquated in a world advancing in terms of science and technology. At some point there may be students who either just distance themselves completely or attempt to produce their own work and challenge current belief systems. Out of this transformation could come new ideas.
        Curiosity and the desire to discover is what keeps society running. Science has shown that curiosity has driven human history. The desire to explore the human body allowed for advances in biomedical science. The wonder in regards to outer space has given humanity a glimpse into exoplanets, black holes, and galaxies. Education should induce this desire to discover and know more. An educator, teacher, or professor should act as a mentor to their students. Sadly, this value is not supported in modern day society. Teaching pays very little causing a low quality workforce and a high turn over rate. Another issue is that a large portion of teachers have low expectations of students and their ability to learn. Such negative attitudes produce students who either disengage or continue to struggle with their courses. The role of the teacher is to create that sense of curiosity and desire for discovery. Most do not think in this manner and it has devastating effects on future generations. When a society becomes philistine it will become fragile. People rather not think, but waste time on frivolous distractions or engage in hedonistic or pointless activity. People should strive for more or something higher. Discovering more about the world and existence adds a meaningful purpose to life. When one discovery is made, this leads to more curiosity. This desire to know is what propelled humanity to explore, create, and thrive.
         Education and learning should be a lifetime activity. It does not end with the completion of a degree. The mind should receive exercise just as much as the physical body. There is a common belief that as we age it becomes more difficult to learn new information. This is not the case if one continues consistently to learn. This could have to do with motivation and desire. One has to want to learn. Closed minded or rigidly thinking individuals will have difficulty trying to understand or grasp new ideas or systems of knowledge. This may actually be good for one's physical health. Memory as we age becomes less sharp and the brain under goes changes. The longer a person lives the greater the risk for dementia or other neurodegenerative diseases. Keeping the mind and brain active could ensure health of the nervous system. Maybe it could also maintain optimum mental health, giving an individual a feeling of fulfillment. A more practical reason for being a life long learner is remaining relevant in the workforce. Many low skill and manual labor  jobs will be replaced by technology. A modern workforce will have to be able to absorb new information and apply it rapidly. Either getting higher education or being self taught in various skills will keep the majority of the population employed. Besides a more practical reason for life long learning, there is a joy to finding things out. Exploring new topics or subjects reveal a world of wonder.
       The reasons for getting an education are normally discussed in terms of material gain. Job security, status, or financial  gain are seen as the only reason in the majority of the public. Many have forgotten the long philosophical tradition that aimed to mold people into something new. The duty of schools and universities is to transform men and women into a generation of bold thinkers, who have the mastery of knowledge. Universities continue to produce quality graduates, but this could be lost if they do not understand education's original purpose. Liberal arts should not be ignored in the curriculum in favor of  schooling just directed at employment. There are already vocational schools that train people for certain professions. Too often when students finish their academic program, they wonder who they will work for. There is never a consideration for either employing oneself or starting their own  business. The hope is with a change in pedagogy a new group of people will emerge that will change society for the better. When one harnesses the power of thought and knowledge they achieve a new level. Education is a quest for knowledge and there are many questions to be answered.