The United States has condemned the missile launches of North Korea. This has gone far beyond mere disapproval put turned into threats of war. North Korea does not have the ability to develop an arsenal on the same equivalent as the United States, yet the country is being treated like an international security threat. Reckless statements from Kim Jung Un and Donald Trump have caused the situation to escalate. Prior to this provocation by the United States, there were alleged attempts to start negotiations with North Korea. Donald Trump's limited understanding of Asia and the wider world could cause mass global conflict. North Korea by many estimations is not a threat. It is a nation that is struggling with poverty, dependent on China to an extent, and is now facing a wave of diplomatic isolation. If there were to be an assessment of a more violent country, the United States would surpass most. The United States currently has attacked Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, and continues to engage in drone strikes in both Yemen as well as Somalia. This has caused more death and destruction than North Korea is even capable of. Part of the blame rests on mainstream media which presents North Korea as being on the same level of military strength. It is apparent that regime change has been a part of the agenda, which explains contemporary attitudes. Even if North Korea were to dispose of its nuclear weapons, the possibly of US attack would be imminent. The reasons are clear in the context of US geopolitical designs. The US has the intention of maintaining dominance in Asia and being confrontational with China. Nuclear weapons can act as a deterrence from US aggression. These latest missile launches are not declarations of war, but indications of fear within North Korea. The paranoia of US attack normally happens under Republican presidencies. Normalization of relations will most likely never happen as long as the US wants to remain the sole superpower on Earth. North Korea could become another Iraq with horrible consequences for East Asia.
North Korea does have a large military, but it is not as powerful as presented. According to official statics the North Korean military looks impressive. Estimates vary, but is believed that North Korea has 1.9 million service members and 7.7 million reservists. There weaponry consists of 3,500 battle tanks, 563 aircraft, 21,000 artillery pieces, and 302 helicopters. This is diminutive compared to the United States. The US has bases around the world (80 bases in 70 countries) and allies that are willing to fight. North Korea would not have the ability to invade the US. History has shown that the US is the stronger country in terms of total military strength. The United States has 1,066,600 employed, 13,900 aircraft, 920 attack helicopters, and 72 submarines. While North Korea has the same number of submarines, they do not have the financial strength to reach America's level. Donald Trump also wants to see the expansion of the US military. He insisted to congress that defense spending should be increased to $54 billion. North Korea if attacked by the United States would have to fight both South Korea, Australia,and Japan. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to see a re militarized Japan having dominance over Asia. China and Korea provide him excuses for a military build up, which would not benefit Japan economically.The desire to be a stronger world power still is a vision in the minds of many Japanese conservatives. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has already stated that he is committed to the US agenda in regards to North Korea. North Korea would be in a vulnerable predicament. The only assistance they could get is from either Russia or China. China does not want to have a US presence close to its border. However, it does not want to see a North Korea too powerful, that is its influence is weakened.
Russia may be more willing to assist in a conflict, seeing relations with the US are at a nadir. Between allegations of hacking in the 2016 election, the Syrian Civil War, and disagreements over Ukraine US-Russian relations may never be repaired. Russia could use the North Korean standoff to pressure the United States. Both Russia and North Korea are under sanctions from the US. The two countries have a common interest in this perspective. North Korea does not have many alternatives for defense. President Vladmir Putin just like Xi Jingping has urged North Korea and the US to seek dialogue, rather than confrontation. Their reasons are related to their current circumstances. China has been experiencing tensions with India and with its neighbors in the South China Sea. These areas could become combat zones if China decides to assist North Korea in a conflict. Russia has to figure out what to do about a rapidly expanding NATO in Eastern Europe. Although the Cold War is over this military alliance is still active and directed at Russia. The alliance has been looking for justifications to maintaining its existence and Russia is a convenient scapegoat. It would not be surprising to see NATO attack if Russia contributes militarily to North Korea. There are numerous complications that would follow a strike on North Korea.
North Korea does not have the military bases or air power of the United States. If its defenses are not on the same level or quality it would need help from other allies. Russia and China may not be reliable, so basically North Korea would be left to fight alone. During the Korean War it was the People's Liberation Army that prevented North Korean collapse. China has agreed to the UN sanctions, which shows that they are not willing to support North Korea entirely. This does not seem uncharacteristic when examined through the context of East Asian history. China has since the Tang dynasty wanted to keep Korea under a form of political influence. A North Korea that is more powerful would be harder to control. At the moment, North Korea does not have the military strength to challenge any power that seeks to attack it.
The reason North Korea is pursuing nuclear weapons is that it realizes that it will be invaded. This is a desperate effort to prevent another US war that has long been delayed. the first Korean War ended in cease fire establishing the demilitarized zone and the heavily guarded border at the 38th parallel. Ever since 1953, North Korea has been resisting the US and its geopolitical designs. The nuclear weapons program to North Korea represents an expression of national sovereignty and a statement that they will not be bullied by any foreign power. This is the extension of the Juche principle in which the nation becomes through communist revolution fully self-reliant. This could be one possible explanation into having a nuclear weapons program. There could also be after half a century paranoid fears about what the US might do. If one sees the military actions of the United States, it would logical to assume that it would be the more belligerent country. Currently, there are no indications that war will break out in the next month or so, but intense rhetoric has made some nervous. Donald Trump had stated " the country is locked and loaded" and in response Kim Jung Un claimed that his country had the capability to attack Guam. Both the United States and North Korea have created a paranoid atmosphere in which they think someone will attack. Nuclear weapons may be a way for North Korea to demonstrate strength, when in reality they have none to deter US aggression. Another reason North Korea could be developing a nuclear arsenal is to increase international prestige. The lugubrious fact is that smaller countries do not receive respect from the larger world powers. They are not treated equally under international law or given much a say at the United Nations. Having nuclear weapons demonstrates to larger countries that this is a place than cannot be subject to domination. The nuclear programme could also serve a more sinister purpose. It acts as a distraction to the citizens of North Korea, who do not see their daily lives improving. The program redirects anger or frustration into loyal patriotism. This ensures that Kim dynasty will rule indefinitely. A large state propaganda machine and military loyalty to Kim Jung Un means there is little chance of dissent.
The nuclear program does not have to be successful, but a means of political survival. This effort could best be spent investing in nuclear power plants. North Korea needs more electricity relative to its population. The pursuit of nuclear weapons may have benefits, but they are only temporary. It is still remains a mystery just how advanced the nuclear programme is. The North Korean claims of conducting nuclear tests could be exaggerated or fabrications by the state. However, there are indications that tests were conducted in 2006, 2009, 2013, and 2016. The only indirect evidence is the quake magnitude scales. It has been difficult for observers to determine whether these are atomic bombs or hydrogen bombs. North Korea claims that it has detonated a hydrogen bomb, yet many are dubious about such pronouncements. There are debates on which element was used. Uranium or plutonium, it North Korea has nuclear capability would have to get these materials from somewhere. Uranium enrichment would be less cumbersome, compared to plutonium which require larger facilities. Most of the tests have been conducted at the Punggye-ri site. These are only tests, which means they have not erected an immense arsenal. North Korea would never be able to catch up to the United States in terms of nuclear capability. The concern over North Korea and nuclear weapons is not entirely about the country itself. The West does not want to see a nuclear armed Asia. This means that there would be certain behaviors they could not engage in across the region for fear of violent reaction. India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, yet have not used them on one another. Mutual assured destruction is still applicable in the North Korean situation. North Korea simply would not attack due to the fact it is not on the same level of nuclear capability. This may prevent nations from attacking each other directly, but leads to wars of proxy. If one nation gets nuclear weapons others will want to do the same. Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and Malaysia may want nuclear weapons if North Korea builds a moderately sized arsenal. The United States will have to accept that North Korea and other nations will be nuclear powers. No one has a monopoly on technology and nuclear technology will proliferate.
The United States at times appeared to want negotiation with North Korea. However, the United States has adopted neoconservative foreign policy as its modus operandi. The United States has been on a path to impose its will on the nations of the world claiming to spread freedom and human rights. Donald Trump claimed that he rejected this perspective of nation building and imperialism. His America First policy when applied to foreign affairs, means the US will not get involved in particular international issues unless it benefits it some economic and political way. That is in conflict with the neoconservative vision that the world must be changed with military force and violence to create an American century. It appeared as if Trump was falling into this field of thought when ordering an airstrike on Syria. This was nothing more than another distraction from his failed domestic policies and poor operation of government. The sudden ire at North Korea came at a time when healthcare repeal failed in both houses. The American public has become so easily distracted that Trump's actions in regards to North Korea made them forget about the domestic issues still troubling the country. The administration so far has not attempted tax reform, immigration reform, or new infrastructure projects. Trump faces criticism from both factions of the American political spectrum. Declining poll numbers and shrinking support, Trump reacted in anger. A convenient scapegoat was the solution to deal with negative publicity and accusations. Kim Jung Un provide Trump an escape from the investigations in Russian connections and questions regarding his business practices. This distraction did not work in the way he intended it. It may have further alienated China, whom he wanted to establish closer economic ties with. All through the 2016 campaign he stated "China is ripping us off." This was another unsupported claim, but it spoke to America's racism. There is a new form of yellow peril emerging casting China as America's enemy. Trump and other extreme conservatives are presenting North Korea as being enabled by China, even though they did not share nuclear technology. When President Xi Jingping visited the US in the early months of 2017, the meetings proved to be fruitless. It did not produce economic deals or agreements on North Korea that Trump wanted.
Donald Trump who is limited in his knowledge of international affairs, assumed the response would be immediate. Very little has changed, however there seems to be intent on waging economic warfare on China. Doing this allows Trump to present himself as a great negotiator, who can control China's behavior. There is obvious tension between the US and China and it is indirectly projecting itself in the sudden Korean crisis. Steve Bannon former White House strategist, expressed these thoughts about becoming confrontational with China. Trump continues to be influenced by Bannon's beliefs, which could lead to a much larger conflict.
It is essential to realize that the current situation was induced by the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system. Besides the more pressing issue of the US not delivering on its food aid promise to North Korea, THAAD proves to be another act of belligerence. South Koreans even protested its development. The protesters claimed that it would only create more of a hateful atmosphere on the Korean peninsula. China also voiced its displeasure with the US missile project. THADD is an anti-ballistic missile and interceptor system. it is designed to strike ballistic missiles at its terminal phase. The system contains Patriot Advanced Capability 3 interceptors. Japan also has these as well, causing alarm in China. This has also cause a strain in relations between South Korea and China. The United States claims that THADD is in existence for countering North Korean missile attacks. So far, North Korea has conducted launches, but never has hit a target.
If North Korea was intent on destroying other countries, so far it has failed in its mission. The United States said this was necessary to protect the continental United States area from North Korea's short and medium range SCUD missiles. Previously, it was suggested that North Korea launched a satellite, which observers believed it was being used for espionage. The concern for China becomes the tracking of their ICBMs, causing the strategic balance in the region to shift. A THADD battery is present on Guam, two AN/TY -2 radars in Japan, both ship and land based radars through out the Pacific theater. Depending on particular launch points China's missiles could be tracked much easier. This could effect China's second strike capabilities as some foreign policy observers have noted. This could be intentional or the result of reckless planning on the part of the United States. It should be understood that their will be reactions when ever a missile installation or new military base is established in the world many see it as a provocation. When North Korea dismantled the Yongbyon site cooling tower in 2008, it was hoping to get aid. The following year the promise was broken. North Korea is never rewarded when it complies with agreements in terms of nuclear weapons or missile technology. North Korea the again suspended nuclear weapons testing in 2012 in exchange for food aid. When this did not come, the launches stated once more. THADD could be a method of declaring war without specifically stating it. The defense system only has created more paranoia and trepidation in regards to US intentions.
If this tension escalates, North Korea and the United States could go to war. This would certainly attract other world powers to East Asia and have Asian countries fighting one another. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and possibly Vietnam may join the US in such military actions. China would have to respond to an attack on North Korea. Russia may eventually be pulled into such a conflict. India may not remain neutral in a greater East Asian war. Such a conflict would last a number of years and the outcomes will be equally devastating. There could be a chance that the US would use nuclear weapons on North Korea. After all, the US used atomic weaponry on Japan during World War II. It has thus so far been the only country to use such weapons during warfare, so threats from the country should be taken seriously. Regime change and nation building produce human rights disasters on a large scale. Occupation and formation of another government in another country causes anger in the local population. Imposing democracy is not liberation at all, but an alternate version of imperialism. The US has sought to keep a dominant position in East Asia, after the defeat of the Japanese Empire. The rise China and US defeat in the Vietnam War weakened American strength in the region. The Obama administration's Asia Pivot brought the US back to the region in a more belligerent manner with the expansion of naval forces in the Pacific. It is not wonder the chances of war have gotten worse. If there is a victory in a mass regional conflict the loss of human life would be astronomical. The remaining survivors would either be refugees heading to either Australia, Europe, or the United States. China could go through a balkanization process expanding refugees levels. Many nations that were not part of the combat zone could not cope with such large populations. This explains why unification of the Korea peninsula under South Korean leadership has creates a problem . Koreans have been manipulated to an extent by the US and China into conflict with each other, being a staging ground for a war of proxy. The only solution to avoid mass regional war and the divide between Koreans is if they reach an agreement without the interference from world powers.
It is essential to realize that the current situation was induced by the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system. Besides the more pressing issue of the US not delivering on its food aid promise to North Korea, THAAD proves to be another act of belligerence. South Koreans even protested its development. The protesters claimed that it would only create more of a hateful atmosphere on the Korean peninsula. China also voiced its displeasure with the US missile project. THADD is an anti-ballistic missile and interceptor system. it is designed to strike ballistic missiles at its terminal phase. The system contains Patriot Advanced Capability 3 interceptors. Japan also has these as well, causing alarm in China. This has also cause a strain in relations between South Korea and China. The United States claims that THADD is in existence for countering North Korean missile attacks. So far, North Korea has conducted launches, but never has hit a target.
If North Korea was intent on destroying other countries, so far it has failed in its mission. The United States said this was necessary to protect the continental United States area from North Korea's short and medium range SCUD missiles. Previously, it was suggested that North Korea launched a satellite, which observers believed it was being used for espionage. The concern for China becomes the tracking of their ICBMs, causing the strategic balance in the region to shift. A THADD battery is present on Guam, two AN/TY -2 radars in Japan, both ship and land based radars through out the Pacific theater. Depending on particular launch points China's missiles could be tracked much easier. This could effect China's second strike capabilities as some foreign policy observers have noted. This could be intentional or the result of reckless planning on the part of the United States. It should be understood that their will be reactions when ever a missile installation or new military base is established in the world many see it as a provocation. When North Korea dismantled the Yongbyon site cooling tower in 2008, it was hoping to get aid. The following year the promise was broken. North Korea is never rewarded when it complies with agreements in terms of nuclear weapons or missile technology. North Korea the again suspended nuclear weapons testing in 2012 in exchange for food aid. When this did not come, the launches stated once more. THADD could be a method of declaring war without specifically stating it. The defense system only has created more paranoia and trepidation in regards to US intentions.
If this tension escalates, North Korea and the United States could go to war. This would certainly attract other world powers to East Asia and have Asian countries fighting one another. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and possibly Vietnam may join the US in such military actions. China would have to respond to an attack on North Korea. Russia may eventually be pulled into such a conflict. India may not remain neutral in a greater East Asian war. Such a conflict would last a number of years and the outcomes will be equally devastating. There could be a chance that the US would use nuclear weapons on North Korea. After all, the US used atomic weaponry on Japan during World War II. It has thus so far been the only country to use such weapons during warfare, so threats from the country should be taken seriously. Regime change and nation building produce human rights disasters on a large scale. Occupation and formation of another government in another country causes anger in the local population. Imposing democracy is not liberation at all, but an alternate version of imperialism. The US has sought to keep a dominant position in East Asia, after the defeat of the Japanese Empire. The rise China and US defeat in the Vietnam War weakened American strength in the region. The Obama administration's Asia Pivot brought the US back to the region in a more belligerent manner with the expansion of naval forces in the Pacific. It is not wonder the chances of war have gotten worse. If there is a victory in a mass regional conflict the loss of human life would be astronomical. The remaining survivors would either be refugees heading to either Australia, Europe, or the United States. China could go through a balkanization process expanding refugees levels. Many nations that were not part of the combat zone could not cope with such large populations. This explains why unification of the Korea peninsula under South Korean leadership has creates a problem . Koreans have been manipulated to an extent by the US and China into conflict with each other, being a staging ground for a war of proxy. The only solution to avoid mass regional war and the divide between Koreans is if they reach an agreement without the interference from world powers.
Further Reading
Panda, Ankit. “What Is THAAD, What Does It Do, and Why Is China Mad About It?” The Diplomat, The Diplomat, 26 Feb. 2016, thediplomat.com/2016/02/what-is-thaad-what-does-it-do-and-why-is-china-mad-about-it/.
Silva, Cristina. “North Korea Says It Needs a Massive Army to Stand up To.” Newsweek, Newsweek, 30 Apr. 2017, www.newsweek.com/what-north-koreas-military-looks-compared-us-589688.
“North Korea's Nuclear Programme: How Advanced Is It?” BBC News, BBC, 10 Aug. 2017, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11813699.
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