Friday, March 31, 2023

The Donald Trump Indictment

 


Donald Trump has become the first former US president to be indicted. The changes relate to payments given to an adult film star. The payments were given to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential campaign. The case at best is not strong enough to imprison the former president. If there was a serious attempt to do so, Donald Trump would be investigated for tax evasion. There has been reason to believe that for a long period of time the former president has not paid taxes. The New York grand jury decided to vote and proceed with the indictment. No consideration was taken into the political  and law related consequences. Donald Trump has framed this as political persecution from the Democratic establishment. Other might come to the conclusion it is a means of damaging his  campaign for the 2024 presidential election. While there is a strong argument he abused power in office, these criminal charges are frivolous in comparison. The concern is that other former presidents could be targeted in the future. The criminal justice system should not be weaponized or directed at political opponents. The indictment could backfire against the Democrats, who are struggling to counter a more aggressive Republican Party. The legal complications are numerous. The biggest question is if the former president can get a fair trial in Manhattan. Donald Trump is not the most popular figure in the state and the jury could have bias. Ensuring due process would be even more difficult. A trial might not happen immediately. Through a series of appeals it could be delayed from two to three years. News of the indictment has caused more division among the American public.   

Monday, March 27, 2023

Russia Intends To Place Tactical Nuclear Weapons In Belarus

 


The Russian Federation intends to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Building up the military strength of Belarus was one plan to counter NATO expansion. The option was available if or when Ukraine becomes part of the military alliance. The second option was to intervene in Ukraine's civil war and secure the Donbas. Now it appears that a hybrid of both plans will be used. Without the INF Treaty, nuclear weapons production will increase. Finland comes closer to NATO membership, Russia wants to counter the new members with Belarus. Eastern Europe is becoming more militarized. Tension and fear only creates a more unstable atmosphere. The proliferation of nuclear weapons next to a war zone could cause further escalation. Tactical nuclear weapons are short range and to not have the capability of obliterating entire cities. These types of nuclear weapons are not subject to the same treaties as strategic nuclear weapons. The United States also has tactical nuclear weapons present on the soil of its NATO allies. Knowing this the possibility of a nuclear war becomes more likely. This is the first time Russia has sought to deploy nuclear weapons outside its borders since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The decision might have been adopted in response to the ICC warrant for President Vladmir Putin and the continued shipment of arms from EU countries. Whatever the result will be, Eastern Europe has become a zone of proxy war. 

Saturday, March 25, 2023

Chad Has Nationalized All Assets of Exxon Mobil

 


Chad has nationalized Exxon Mobil assets. The oil company divested in Chad around December of 2022. The current policy also applies to exploration and production authorizations. Hydrocarbon permits will are also subject to nationalization. The change in policy came from the reaction to the Savannah Energy deal. Chad felt Exxon Mobil was not upholding  previous obligations under their agreements. Courts may get involved to prevent Savannah Energy from making purchases of assets in Chad. This has also effected Cameroon, which has worked with Chad in the energy sector. A Chad-Cameroon pipeline has been planned for construction. The Doba oil project was designed to make Chad produce larger amounts of oil. It contains seven oil fields and produces 28,000 barrel per day. The government wants a better deal, which benefits the economy. Savannah Energy stated it will take the assets under the Exxon Agreement. Savannah Energy is a British company active in Niger and Nigeria. The fear from the company is that other African nations will nationalize assets. According to their statement it intends to use the ICC to pursue legal rights. If Chad can successfully fight the legal claims, it may get back control of its own economic policy. Oil can generate much wealth. If  the wealth is not applied to development or increasing the standard of living it means nothing. Exploitation by foreign corporations of Africa's natural resources remains common. Nationalization might be a method of preventing such an occurrence.  

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

War Zones, Their Locations, And The Reduction Global Security

 War zones are areas of military combat. Warfare has been a part of human history since the establishment of  permanent settlement and civilization. Every continent has had some form of conflict at one stage. The hope after 1945 with the United Nations would be a reduction of conflict. Instead, there were a number of proxy wars waged by both the US and U.S.S.R. This also was intersected with anti-colonial liberation struggles against France, UK, Spain, and Portugal. The end of the Cold War did not reduce hostility. The aftermath related to the power void created issues in various parts of the world. The sole superpower remaining contributed to the expansion of war zones. While war zones can be in a few areas, this does not mean it can escalate. Small scale conflicts can spark larger ones. The fight for resources, economics, and politics can be factors in the spread of war zones. The majority of their locations are in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. These warzones are mostly in global south nations. The developed countries are either invading or causing destabilization in these regions. However, Europe is not immune from this. The Russia-Ukraine War has been a conflict that demonstrates a wider European war can be possible. The real fear is the launch of mass global conflict similar to that of World War I or World War II. Attempting to create world peace might not be feasible, but through diplomacy war zones can be contained. If war zones are not eliminated or sealed off they can fuse. Global security is reduced by the level of war zones present. The civilian deaths, refugee migration, and damage to infrastructure. Countries and entire regions cannot function under large war zones. The need to study and produce solutions to this problem require an international effort. Peace and anti-war organizations could benefit from examining war zones and their emergence. The war zones of the world are more than just battlefields. Their existence  can be a humanitarian crisis, a geopolitical tool, and  a world disturbance.

       War zones are areas of conflict in which nations fight. Civil wars are internal conflicts, but can still attract foreign powers to intervene. Insurgencies and armed revolts might not become full scale war. Much of that depends on how powerful the armed group is. When the central government no longer can control certain territories an insurrection or insurgency can escalate to war. Myanmar has a number of armed groups fighting the military government. It has not reached the point in which the country is in full scale civil war. Sudan's Second Civil War resulted in the creation in South Sudan. At one point it was one country, but the southern region broke off to form a Neur and Dinka state.  The Columbian conflict is unique in that it is both a civil war and an attempt to prevent failed state status. Since 1964, the government has been fighting paramilitary right-wing groups, leftist guerilla groups, and crime syndicates. Political and economic grievances might drive people to take up arms against a government. Political factionalism, ethnic nationalism, and regional identity can also be factors. Mexico has not reached a point of civil war, but struggles with narcoterrorism. To a degree it shares a similar experience with  Colombia. Terrorist organizations cause instability in Syria, Pakistan, Libya, Somalia, Burkina Faso, and Mozambique. All of these armed groups were not developed there indigenously. The UK, France, and the United States have armed terrorist groups as a method of regime change. This was done Libya and less successfully in Syria. The blowback is not just more terrorism, but opening new war zones across continents. North Africa was destabilized from NATO's attack on Libya. This created the worse refugee crisis in recent history. 



War zones are not easily contained. Fighting can spread across borders. The reason the Sahel in Africa is seeing an increase in armed conflict is due to NATO's attack on Africa in 2011. The tension between India and Pakistan does involve Afghanistan to an extent. Pakistan's ISI has used the Taliban as a counterbalance to its regional rival of India. Both India and Pakistan have fought three wars against one another and peace does not seem attainable under such conditions. The US-Afghan War culminated in refugees and the return of the Taliban to power. The stability of Central Asia was disrupted by 20 years of military occupation. The West has made regime change and military intervention a form of foreign policy. Masking neo-colonial imperialism as humanitarian projects produced dire consequences. Iraq has not seen substantial improvement since the 2003 Iraq War. The emergence of ISIS expanded war zones between Syria. Even when conflict is over the damage from the war zones remain. Infrastructure and population decline make it difficult to rebuild a society. The requirements for a stable society include economic security, education, healthcare, functional government, and a high standard of living. Without these requirements a state that was once a war zone could become a failed state. Major world powers continue to use weaker nations in a geopolitical chessboard. Ukraine has become victim to this as its land has become a war of proxy between NATO and the Russian Federation. The Democratic Republic of The Congo is subject to interference by its neighbors. The DRC is rich in copper, cobalt, diamonds, gold, and coltan. Iran, Syria, and  Libya have oil which also makes these nations targets of more powerful countries.   World power competition, neo-colonial imperialism,  and internal state crisis  contribute to the expansion of war zones. 

      The United Nations was established as an international organization for countries to resolve disputes. Diplomacy and peaceful resolution is the goal. Instead the United Nations either induces or continues existing conflicts. The majority of UN missions have been conducted in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The completed missions do not improve the nations in which the UN peacekeepers have been active. Haiti, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Central African Republic, and Sudan are examples of worsening conditions. A serious criticism or analysis of peacekeeping has not been mentioned in diplomatic circles. The notion that an armed occupying force will bring peace is misguided. The UN Peacekeepers would have to act as a neutral force. However, it becomes clear that the enforcement of an international rules based order is selective. Global South nations are subject to violence by France, the UK, and,  the United States . The international rules based order does not exist as long as the US-EU block violates international law. A UN Peacekeeping mission would never operate in America or a European country. A glaring contradictions also exists with the UN Peacekeeping force. National sovereignty is being violated with long term military occupation. UN Peacekeepers are not diplomats; they are a fighting force. Undermining a nation's independence was not the intent of the United Nations. Unless the UN Peacekeeping force acts as a buffer against armed factions or warring parties conflicts will continue unrestricted. The model only makes its so that UN Peacekeepers are fighting multiple armed groups or being a permanent occupation force. The active mission headquarters are permanent in African and Asian countries. 


UN Peacekeeping does operate in accordance with certain mandates. Much of it is dependent on the situation. Authorization from the Security Council is required. The basic principles the United Nations asserts applies to all missions. The first is impartiality. UN Peacekeepers are not suppose to aid warring parties in a mission. If this were true, Kosovo would not be in its current situation. Kosovo is a part of Serbia, but it appears as if the UN favors its separation. Israel has engaged in a number of war abuses, but has never been subject to restrictions by the United Nations.  UN Peacekeepers have also been involved in the abuse of civilians in various nations they have occupied. Instances of sexual abuse by UN Peacekeepers in Haiti shows similar behaviors of  armed forces of nation-states. A solution has been suggested that by getting more women involved in peacekeeping operations could reduce case of rape and sexual violence. That would have minimal effect if corruption is at the highest level. UN Peacekeepers are to engage in combat only in the defense of the mandate or if attacked. War zones are unstable and if a mandate is nebulous that justifies an attack at any time. For UN Peacekeepers to be present in a country there needs to be consent. It is difficult to get consent from multiple warring parties. A legitimate government could be removed or a series of regime changes could take place. Armed factions actively engaged in combat will not consent. The M23 rebels and Seleka rebels are not recognized as legitimate political organizations by the DRC or the African Central Republic. Situations become more complicated when examining the conditions of South Sudan or Somalia. The biggest contradiction is that an armed force brings peace. The United Nations has not reduced war. At times they enabled it through UN resolutions. UN Security Council Resolution 678 allowed for escalation of the Gulf War,  the UN Protection force involved in the Yugoslav Wars, and UN Resolution 1973 justified a no-fly zone over Libya. UN Peacekeeping does not promote global stability. 

      Global security is reduced by the spread of war zones. The current wars might seem like isolated occurrences, but there exists a possibility of them merging. The push to mass global conflict becomes greater when war zones expand and  world powers have poor diplomatic relations. The United States of America,  the Russian Federation, and the People's Republic of China are  not having essential dialogue. Instead the US follows a neo-colonial imperialist trajectory making enemies of any country that it deems a threat. Destabilizing regions, regime change, and expanding military presence around the world caused a reaction. Russia and China do not want to be subject to an international order forcibly imposed by the United States. The world powers are now engaged in various forms of geopolitical competition. Wars of proxy will expand in the coming decades. No region will be safe. Prior to World War I, the Balkan Wars were a catalyst for the crisis of 1914. Previous conflicts and  incidents culminated in  mass global conflict. Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931 and  set out to conquer all of China in 1937. Italy invaded Ethiopia and Germany annexed Austria. These wars and territorial expansions occurred before World War II, but morphed into a larger conflict. The war zones in Ukraine, Syria, Somalia, the DRC, and Afghanistan could merge into a larger war. The more involvement by external powers increases this danger. The nations with nuclear weapons become even greater threats. The more the Russia-Ukraine War escalates the closer the US and Russia come to nuclear exchange.  New war zones could be opened. North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, and Nicaragua could be subject to regime change in the coming decades. Latin America has been victim to US military action, but it might not induce a response from Russia or China. Actions directed at Iran or North Korea will. The entire world is held hostage by  the few powerful nations that refuse to solve disputes by diplomatic means. The countries that are subject to violence do not have enough military strength to resist. If resistance does happen, asymmetric warfare or guerilla warfare has to be used. Thus an endless cycle of violence is set in motion. Small conflicts will attract large powers to intervene. 

       The location of war zones is not accident. Africa, Latin America,  and Asia were under colonial rule. The age of European colonial imperialism brought slavery, violence, and war. When it came to making maps boundaries created would cause the conflicts of the present. The mandate system under the direction of the British Empire and France created the borders of the Middle East. The formation of the state of Israel contributed to more conflict in the region. Anti-colonial wars were fought in Africa and Asia to expel the French, British, Dutch, and Belgians. South Africa, Vietnam, Zimbabwe, Angola, Mozambique, Algeria, Kenya, and Namibia fought long independence struggles. Africa and Asia contain an abundance of natural resources, which the colonial powers robbed them of. The desire to exploit the labor and resources never dissipated. This explains why the West directs aggression against the Global South. The economic benefits of imperial conquest  remain a foreign policy objective. Unlike the past a more sophisticated method is used to make it acceptable to the public. The concept of humanitarian intervention justifies violence as saving people.  Bombings and military force are presented as humanitarian. This disguises acts of brutality and war crimes. Violations of international law are viewed as necessary under the responsibility to protect. More people het killed as the result of humanitarian intervention. Counting the deaths of civilians and soldiers exposes the false argument of human rights protection. Human rights never will come from warfare. The attacks on  the Global South are about maintaining a system of oppression and geopolitical dominance. The US-EU block want to maintain a leading position in the world and  keep the Global South in a subordinate status. The imperial order has been updated to make it more palatable to the citizens of the West. The formerly colonized are still fighting to preserve their independence. 

        War zones are going to be a constant challenge. Geopolitical disturbances are happening simultaneously. The forces behind this are governments, the arms industry, and  past imperial legacies. Nations that were at peace can go to war. Internal conflicts can spill over into neighboring countries. Armed groups, militias, paramilitary forces, and terrorist organizations might to be strong enough to overthrow a government. Overtime, some can become formidable enough to bring a country into civil war. If a conflict lasts long enough to get attention from other countries, it is no longer a internal affair. World powers that decide to intervene making it an international matter. Altruism is not a factor. The intent either focuses on obtaining resources, building influence, or establishing a puppet state. War zones can be used as geopolitical tools. Engineered state destruction, regime change, or destabilization are methods employed to dispatch of certain leaders. Doing this has serious repercussions. The world becomes disturbed. Fighting stops, but the damage remains. The loss of human life makes it impossible for a nation to rebuild or be productive. Infrastructure will take time to replace. The basic social fabric of various communities will be destroyed. History has shown that a nation can recover from war. The concern with the contemporary period is that war zones across the world will merge into a large international conflict. Nuclear attacks between countries and constant military intervention could cause the collapse of world civilization. Even if a nation was the victor in a international war, nothing would be left. This can be prevented. All war zones cannot be eliminated. Containing them is a realistic option given current circumstances. Diplomacy must be skillfully used  to keep peace and avoid war. Militarism should not be a pillar of foreign policy. The United Nations needs reform so that it can become an institution that stops violence, rather than being an accomplice to it. The dramatic rise in war zones requires new solutions and a better approach.        

Saturday, March 18, 2023

Europe Has The Highest Amount of Alcohol Consumption

 


The World Health Organization earlier this year reported that there is no safe amount of alcohol consumption. This could have serious implications related to public health. Europe consumes the highest amount of alcohol in the world. The data from the WHO states that the average European consumes about 9.5 litres. The demographic analysis started at ages 15 and up. The overconsumption of alcohol can have negative health outcomes. Recently, the WHO has called attention to the link with certain cancers. The throat, mouth, esophagus, and breasts could be vulnerable to cancer due to overconsumption of alcohol. The European health report noted that total alcohol consumption decreased between 2000 and 2019. The data also revealed that men tend to drink more than women. The largest sex related gap can be seen in Spain and Portugal. The countries with the highest amount of consumption included the Czech Republic, Germany, Latvia, Moldova, Lithuania, Ireland, Spain, Bulgaria, Luxembourg, and Romania( all were measured in per capita ). The lowest age demographic for consumption was between the ages 15 to 24. The report noticed as people got older the more alcohol consumption increased. No reason was provided about this connection with age and amount of  drinking. The reason some might drink heavily is due to stress or episodes of depression. Seeing as this is being done in advanced age, it could strain  the healthcare system. The potential public health crisis will be more gradual. The only means of stopping this is updating labelling. The full lists of the potential risks should be made public. The WHO estimates 1,000,000 perished from alcohol related  health issues. The data was only from the countries of the Europe. Union. Providing knowledge to the public can be a  a preemptive measure to prevent a major  health crisis.  The WHO declaration was too slow in coming to the conclusion about amount of  safe alcohol consumption. Updating warning labels and encouraging people to reduce their drinking are useful solutions.       



Monday, March 13, 2023

The M23 Rebel Crisis

 


The ceasefire between the M23 rebels and the government of the Democratic Republic of The Congo is breaking down. The rebellion started in 2012 and the DRC declared the conflict over. However, clashes still continue. The reason the M23 rebels exist is due to the fall out of the Second Congolese Civil War. The violence has caused Angola to send forces to the DRC. The area of conflict is focused in North-Kivu province. Kenya is also becoming involved in the DRC. Seeing as the zone of war borders Rwanda and Uganda these countries might also be active. Rwanda has been accused of aiding the M23 rebels. President Paul Kagame has denied the allegations of instigating rebellion. Questions also remain about Uganda's role in the internal affairs of the DRC. The United Nations deployment of peacekeepers has not been effective. A total of eight countries were involved in the civil war that lasted from 1998 to 2003. The reason Rwanda takes interest in the DRC is due to Hutu armed groups. Some could have been involved in the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The roots of the rebellion are in ethnic conflict and isolation of minorities. The Tutsi minority and deserters from the DRC's army would form what are now the M23 rebels. There is no indication that this was a product of foreign conspiracy. The origin was indigenous. The Democratic Republic of the Congo cannot function with civil war, foreign intervention, and failed UN missions. The African Union should take a more active role in stabilizing the DRC. Much of this has to do with addressing the discord of the Tutsis and the general frustration of the citizens. President Felix Tshisekedi wants to see economic development projects continue, but this cannot be done with war in the east. The end of the government coalition with Joseph Kabila and his political allies. The M23 rebels are going to be a major concern in the general elections. The fear is that another full scale civil war could break out. So far, the M23 rebels have been contained. If  their forces become stronger and capture more territory, then the DRC will be in another civil war. 

Sunday, March 12, 2023

The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

 


The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank represents a negative turn in the economy. One of the top US banks had its assets confiscated by regulators. These actions and bank failures seem very familiar to the 2008 global financial crisis. The collapse of  Silicon Valley Bank is one of the biggest bank failures in US history. The bank mostly provided services to workers in tech and and start-up companies. Some longtime tech companies also had investments in the bank. The assertion that this was just one case and should not be deemed disturbing is misguided. The banking sector is becoming unstable under the lack of regulation and mismanagement. The assets of Silicon Valley Bank are being transferred to  a newly created institution. The Deposit Insurance Bank of Santa Clara will pay for insured deposits. SVB had an estimated $209 billion in assets. The violation according to the FDIC was that accounts exceeded the $250,000 limit. The technology sector will be negatively impacted by the collapse of SVB. A combination of CEO avarice and layoffs have made the situation worse. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve has failed to counter inflation. The Silicon Valley Bank has been active since 1983, but after 39 years it could not survive. The government has made a promise to ensure that depositors would get their money back. SVB demonstrates a combination of corruption and the hardship that start-up companies face. Large corporations can survive and new businesses are at a disadvantage.  

Friday, March 10, 2023

Iran and Saudi Arabia Set To Restore Diplomatic Relations

 


Iran and Saudi Arabia are going to resume diplomatic ties. For a region that has been in turmoil for 12 years the announcement  is welcomed by advocates for peace. The hope is that this will bring a halt to the conflict in Yemen. The two countries have been backing various armed factions. Iran provides support to the Houthi rebels, while Saudi Arabia attempts to install a puppet regime. The break through was the work of China under the direction on Wang Yi. Stabilization in Yemen could also mean that Syria could be next on the topics to be addressed. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have been involved in the Syrian Civil War. The majority of the Gulf monarchies have been attempting to depose the Baathist government. Iran is an ally of President Bashar Al-Assad.  Saudi Arabia has provided arms to terrorist organizations active in the country. Both Yemen and Syria will be major obstacles to keeping Iranian-Saudi relations stable. The decline in relations is rooted in the execution of Nimr al-Nimr. The Shia sheikh was a major figure in the Arab Spring protests of 2011 to 2012. The desire to have elections and representation for the Shia Muslims of Saudi Arabia made him a target by the Saudi monarchy. His imprisonment and death caused much anger in Iran. As Yemen and Syria descended into violence these internal conflicts were morphed into wars of proxy. Now that the situation has changed, some ponder what Israel might do. Saudi and Iranian conflict worked in their favor. Iran is considered Israel's competitor and a peace settlement would hinder their expansionist ambitions. The plan to extend settlements might go beyond the West Bank. The reestablishment of ties shows that China's influence is growing in the Middle East.    

Tuesday, March 7, 2023

France Wants To Increase The Retirement Age

 

France intends to increase the retirement age despite growing public opposition. Demonstrators and unions have been active expressing their anger over the new legislation. President Macron claimed that moving the age up was designed to confront France's deficit. Nationwide strikes will continue if this economic policy becomes law. The proposed change cannot solve the deficit. Such an event only occurs when revenue cannot not cover expenses of a nation. A practical solution would be for France to start exporting more goods to other countries. Doing so would increase the needed economic growth. Making it more difficult to get a pension does not help an economy. The government does not want to give its citizens the benefits of contributing to France's labor force. The proposed change will disproportionately harm the working class labor force. Among this group most might live to collect their pension. Those who are in dangerous professions are negatively impacted. The 64 years of age retirement proposal has induced labor strikes across the country. Sanitation and transportation workers are becoming more involved in the opposition to reform. If the legislation passes, more demonstrations will continue. Funding the pension system requires higher taxation . What critics claim is that the age increase is a means of gradually abolishing it.  The workforce could die before collecting their pensions. The argument would be made that it would no longer be necessary. The movement to increase retirement age is not just happening in France. The EU is attempting to impose it on member states.