Rising Tension Between Poland And Belarus

 

Belarus and Poland are seeing a decline in diplomatic relations. Poland has stated that Belarus sent military helicopters into its air space. Now rumors are circulating that there is a possibility of a military strike. Belarus has not engaged in the war in Ukraine. The country has allowed Russian troops to be stationed in its territory. However, no Belarusians have fought in the conflict, Fears have grown that Belarus will either be pulled into the conflict by NATO or forced to do so by the Russian Federation. Ever since the Wagner Group incident, the mercenary organization has remained in Belarus. NATO has accused it of attempting to threaten member states by using Belarus as a base. The air space incident probably was not intentional. Minsk did alert Warsaw about a military exercise they were conducting. If there was a plan of a war, a nation would not make its plans known to a foreign government. It has been known that Poland has attempted to instigate conflict with Belarus. Much of the tension focuses on the Suwalki gap. This border has much strategic significance to Russia, Belarus, and the EU. The vital link to Kaliningrad is an area the Russian Federation does not want to lose. If Belarus was invaded by NATO that would put Russia in a precarious situation. The Poland and Belarus tension is the direct result of NATO adding members such as Finland as well as Sweden. The counter by being active in the Suwalki gap would be to cut off the Baltic states from other NATO members. Poland is having diplomatic disputes with Ukraine. Their is frustration from Poland when it comes to assisting Ukraine in grain export. Poland has provided aid to Ukraine, but a sentiment exists that Ukraine has not been appreciative for the help. Belarus would not attack Poland due to Article Five. Belarus would then have to fight the majority of European countries. Poland has an investment in attacking Belarus. The view is that it is not its own country, but a Russian extension. If that were the case Belarus would have been more active in Ukraine. The decline in Polish-Belarusian relations reveals the rapid destabilization of Eastern Europe.