Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Lebanon's Increasing Instability


Lebanon has experienced a bombing in Beirut. The country continues to struggle with with economic decline and a leadership unable to solve the country's problems. Protests over unemployment and increased taxation has brought the country to the brink. The explosion of the port in the capital does not appear to be an act of terrorism. Many theories have been expressed, yet the government remains silent. Some have speculated that it was a strike by Israel to counter Hezbollah. Protests have been occuring since October of 2019 and there is no end in sight. Food security has declined, currency had rapidly devalued, and the population grows more vexed. The ruling elite have allowed Lebanon to fall into long term crisis that could spread regionally. A civil war in Syria and a more aggressive Israel could spark a larger war. Iran has significant involvement in Lebanon. Iranian influence has been growing immensely since Iraq ceased to be stable. Currently, the government of Lebanon has launched an investigation into the port explosion. There is little faith from the population that substantial action will be taken. The explosion could have been caused by the ignition of ammonium nitrate. Although there were not mass amounts of deaths, rebuilding will take large amounts of funding. With little revenue and limited possibility of assistance, Lebanon could be heading for mass insurrection. The removal of rubble and debris has become a symbol of a country on the verge of collapse. Options are limited. Lebanon can either seek loans from either Saudi Arabia or France. Neither of these options are favorable. France a former colonizer of Lebanon would make citizens more suspicious of the government. Saudi Arabia has made attempts to make Lebanon another front in their regional competition with Iran. Whatever happens next, peaceful solutions are limited.   

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