Israel Invades Lebanon

 

Israel continues to disturb the peace in West Asia. The invasion of Lebanon has opened another front in the Israel-Gaza War. The invasion has nothing to do with fighting Hamas. Hezbollah does show solidarity with Palestinian resistance. This is not designed to undermine the fight against occupation. Israel is seeking to expand its borders. The consequences of fighting both Hamas and Hezbollah gets Israel closer to a full scale confrontation with Iran. The motivation is to become the most dominant power in the Middle East region and clear space for Israeli settlement. Other Arab states should be concerned about growing Israeli aggression. Jordan, Iraq, and Syria are at risk. Saudi Arabia could one day face violence from Israel. Yemen continues to resist with Houthi fighters. The expansion of the war has created a dire humanitarian crisis. Ethnic cleansing and genocide are occurring in both the Gaza Strip as well as the West Bank. The violence is part of the Greater Israel project. Although the Movement for Greater Israel ended in the 1970s, the ideas remain. The desire to conquer and replace Arabs with European Ashkenazim Jewish populations. If the war keeps going it may force Arab states to intervene. The citizens of those populations are expressing much anger about the deaths caused by the IDF. Beirut has sustained bombings from Israel. The invasion of Lebanon has only isolated Israel diplomatically. These acts of  military aggression are the start of  a Zionist empire. Lebanon now has to fight to for its sovereignty against an invading nation.      

Turkmenistan And EU Seeking An Agreement On The Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Coordination Platform

 

The European Union is seeking more economic ties to Turkmenistan. The diplomatic talks that happened this October focused on the establishment of  the  Coordination Platform. This is designed to make trade through the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor more efficient. Other Central Asian and  South Caucasus countries sent diplomats and representatives to the meeting. The agreements focused on development of infrastructure, the transport of cargo, and investment. Part of the objective is to promote economic growth in Central Asia and the EU. The construction of the Coordination Platform is set to launch in 2025. This does have benefits for Turkmenistan, but the concern relates to even distribution of them. Employment should be the first priority related to Turkmen. Wealth that is acquired from the project might not reach the average citizen. It might become part of the Berdimuhamedow family's assets. The country has been ruled by the father and son since 2022. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow was president from 2006 to 2022. The power sharing agreement was more of the establishment of co-ruling governance. It is unknown how much influence Serdar has on government. Gurbanguly still remains Chairmen of  the People's Council of Turkmenistan. Economic policy appears to be going in the direction of more investment and  association with the European Union. 

Joseph Biden Comments On The 1992 Presidential Debate

 

Joseph Biden made remarks about the presidential debate in 1992. He criticized George H.W. Bush's debate performance. Willian Jefferson Clinton was able to beat both Bush and Ross Perot. The ushered in the the age of the new Democrat.  The criticism mostly was the fact that Bush ignored the economic conditions of the United States. Taxes were increasing and unemployment intensified. George H.W. Bush continued the supply-side economic policies. The irony was that Biden would be forced out the 2024 presidential race. The poor debate performance revealed that President Biden was showing signs of cognitive decline. Presidents do not win all their debates, but that was never a reason for a candidate to drop out. Concerns about Biden's age and health generated the calls to have him leave the presidential race. Donors and members of the Democratic Party withdrew their support. President Biden did not  exit to pass the torch to a new generation of leaders. Like Bush, Biden will leave office with a troubled economy. Inflation and the housing crisis has put immense strain on the American public. Biden stated in 1992 that Bush was a guy "stuck in the past." The reference was discussing the notion that Bush could not make the transition from a Cold War president to a world in which their was only one superpower. Biden then criticizes Bush for not intervening in Bosnia. Yugoslavia was in a state of civil war and going through balkanization. The US interfering would have had devastating consequences. Biden's views then explain why in the 2020s the policy was escalation in the Russia-Ukraine War. Although he mentions that there is no Soviet Union and threats are minimal Biden still wanted US forces in Europe.      

Hassan Nasrallah Accuses The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and US of Arming ISIS ( 2022)

 

Israel assassinated Hezbollah general secretary Hassan Nasrallah. The targeted assassinations only increase the chances of a wider regional war.  Hassan Nasrallah would make broadcasts in Lebanon discussing various regional and international affairs. A broadcast from 2022  asserted that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States armed ISIS. This has been confirmed. The intent was to get ISIS factions to depose the government of Bashir Al-Assad. Nasrallah also notes that ISIS activity was violent in Iraq. The reason Israel is aggressively going after Hezbollah is due to it being formidable. The reason Saudi Arabia would favor ISIS armed groups is because of Syria and Hezbollah's alliance with Iran. The Islamic Republic came into existence by the removal of the monarchy. Saudi Arabia fears a similar type of revolution could occur. Then there is discomfort of a majority Shia Muslim Iraq north of  its borders. The murder of Hezbollah leadership will not stop the conflict. Lebanon might be forced to go to war if more of its citizens are killed. Nasrallah was general secretary since 1992 and now a new leader will takeover. Hassan Nasrallah was not only a symbol to the Lebanese people, but was a popular figure among the Palestinian resistance. Public anger continues to grow in Iraq and Iran. The more Israel continues its airstrikes, the more isolated it will become internationally. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah was condemned by Turkey, Iraq,  Russia, and South Africa.   

The Kenya-Germany Migration Deal

 

Germany and Kenya have reached a migration pact. The agreement allows Kenyans who are skilled and semi-skilled to work in Germany. Those skilled professionals of Kenya are not be provided jobs in their country. Germany wants to fill certain positions. This might sound like a positive economic development, but there are some concerning stipulations. Kenyans in Germany could be repatriated who have uncertain legal status. The pact could create a brain drain for Kenya and subject Kenyans in Germany to labor exploitation. There are Germans who could work certain jobs, but employers want workers who would not demand higher wages or salaries. Germany has taken a number of migrants, asylum seekers, and refugees. Syrians, Ukrainians, and now Kenyans are becoming a part of Germany. Immigration has become a major issue and has caused a surge in far-right political parties. Kenyan doctors, nurses, and teachers can now come to work in Germany. The loss of these professionals only hurt Kenya. Most will probably not return to Kenya and seek to get German citizenship. This only makes Germany economically more powerful by using the Kenyan workforce. President William Ruto's choice could have negative consequences long after his administration. Rarely does Germany send its expertise to African countries. Kenya must find an incentive to keep their workforce in the country. Increasing pay and the standard of living will make citizens remain in Kenya.  

Israel Expands War Against Hezbollah

 

Israel continues to expand the conflict in the Middle East. Hezbollah when Gaza was attacked aided the resistance by firing rockets into Israel. What Israel did was respond with an act of terrorism. Across Lebanon pagers exploded. This was not designed to harm the leadership, but also attack the Lebanese population. The West Bank is also being absorbed into the Israeli state. What Israel claimed was an operation to free hostages and do a punitive operation against Hamas is really annexation. The long term goal is to destroy armed resistance to colonization efforts. The discussion of a two state solution or the creation of one is not possible under these conditions. The Knesset voted against a two state solution. The conflict with Lebanon has much to do with occupation. Lebanon was under Israeli occupation from 1985 to 2000. Although Israel withdrew they maintain the Shebaa Farms. The argument is that it was not part of the Golan Heights. Disputes over borders remain and this also involves complaints by Syria. Israeli may be seeking to add Ghajar to its domains. Hezbollah objects to this change in borders. Kfar Chouba is also remains a disputed area. When Israel engaged in a war with Hezbollah in 2006, they lost. Another outcome like that could be possible. What is precarious is Israel's move to regional war. Syria could get involved as well as Iran. Jordan and Egypt might be pressured by their citizens to abandon treaties made with Israel. Turkish public opinion tends to favor the Palestinian cause. The push for the creation of Greater Israel makes the region more unstable. West Asia is getting closer to a massive conflict similar to the Six Day War  in 1967.   

South Sudanese Elections Are Postponed

 

South Sudan will postpone its elections. The government asserts it is to take a proper census, register political parties, and develop a new constitution. These statements are legitimate measures needed for functional government. The concern is that President Salva Kiir is using this time to extend his administration. The elections are now set to be held in December of 2026. The civil war that was waged for five years against Riek Machar ended in 2018. The conflict left 400,000 dead. The argument is that some authoritarianism will keep South Sudan from balkanizing. The civil war in Sudan also is a factor. The war there has effected oil exports, which South Sudan is dependent. Political opposition most likely will not be able to operate under a new national security act. Discontent among civil servants has emerged due to missed pay. The outcome of elections can be predicted. President Salva Kiir has been in power since 2011 and could remain for decades. Leaders such as Paul Kagame, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo,  Paul Biya, Denis Sassou Nguesso,  and Yoweri Museveni have been fixtures in African politics. The UN special envoy for South Sudan stated that the country was not ready for elections. The United Nations should not be dictating what South Sudan should do. The role of the UN is do conflict resolution and facilitate peace negations. Elections could be posted further into 2027. This effort is to extend President Salva Kiir's rule. South Sudan since its independence has known only one leader. If economic conditions become worse and discord is ignored South Sudan could fall into another civil war.