Juan Guaido Calls For Military Uprising

Opposition leader Juan Guaido has called for a military uprising. Protests have continued, but remained peaceful and this sudden urge for violence seems even more disturbing. Venezuela has been since 2002 a target of US interference due to its leftist political policies and relations with Cuba. The Trump administration has become more hostile imposing sanctions and threatening Cuba. Juan Guaido has attempted to present himself as a freedom fighter stopping an oppressive government. It is no longer a secret that Guaido is being used a tool for regime change in the South American nation. President Nicolas Maduro since entering office faced numerous political and economic challenges. The socialism from above model has failed to ensure security for the majority of the population. Oil wealth could solve Venezuela's problems, if the current sanctions were not harming the country. Under President Hugo Chavez poverty reduction and the increase of social services were a priority. The Bush administration at the time antagonized the Venezuela, because it opposed US geopolitical objectives in Latin America. So far, Russia and Cuba have provided assistance against a US plot to depose the legitimate government. There now is the threat of civil war and the result could be a massive influx of refugees into neighboring countries. South America has suffered on multiple occasions human rights abuse from the United States and this could be another part of the long historical saga. If Guaido some how manages to take over by force, citizens should not expect to see improvements in living standards. A massive conflict will only harm Venezuela and  its people. The leftist governments of Latin America are under attack and it is apparent that Nicaragua, Bolivia , or Cuba could be next.     

Kim Jung Un Meets With Vladmir Putin

Russian President Vladmir Putin met with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un on Thursday, April 25. The discussions ranged from talks regarding North Korea's nuclear weapons program and economic matters. The Russian Federation has been considering investing in the Asian nation in areas such as infrastructure. What Russia has discovered is that North Korea will only relinquish its nuclear programme, if there is a guarantee that there will be no US military intervention. Secretary of State Mike Pomeo has expressed his desire to continue negotiations, but US foreign policy is more so a hindrance to a possible peace. The US focus on North Korea may not have anything to do with nuclear weapons, rather a geopolitical competition with China. North Korea is very dependent on China and it has been Chinese policy to not let it fall out of its sphere of influence. South Korea has a similar situation with the United States. The only way a solution will be realized is when both North and South Korea collaborate on common issues. Their major problem is two large powers US and China using the Korean peninsula as another battleground  in a larger war of proxy. Kim Jong Un may be attempting to use Russia as an alternative to China, if they once more vote for sanctions in the United Nations. Vladmir Putin wants to undermine US influence by getting more active in North Korea, Venezuela, and Ukraine. The Trump administration has used threats, then vague promises to encourage denuclearization. The last summit ended abruptly in Vietnam with no consensus reached. What could happen is that the Russian Federation would along with China fulfill  security pacts with North Korea in exchange for ending nuclear weapons development. The situation becomes more tense as nations look more for excuses for conflict, rather than a sustainable peace.  

The Terrorist Attack in Sri Lanka

Easter Sunday a series of hotels and churches were attacked  in Sri Lanka. So far, it has been claimed that  National Thowfeek Jamaath is responsible for the criminal acts. The government claims that there is a possibility that it is part of a much larger network. Very little evidence exists to suggest this. The death toll has been estimated to be about 200 people killed in the wave of violence. The unfortunate aftermath is that the government will begin to crackdown on civil liberties in the name of security.  Social media restrictions have already been put in place. A curfew has also been announced for the citizens of Sri Lanka. This follows a pattern that many nations that dealt with terrorism. Sri Lanka has dealt with war and violence before fighting a civil war between 1983 to 2009. This resulted in the defeat of the Tamil Tigers, but ethnic tensions still remain. Human rights violations during the decades long conflict have never been prosecuted. Prime Minister Ranji Wickremesinghe  was  previously in conflict with President Maithripala Sirisena. Political factionalism will on make the current situation worse discussing solutions to rising violence. There are indications that law enforcement knew of attacks, but took little action to prevent this event. The Asian nation will have to figure out how to deal with both terrorism and growing discontent from the public regarding intelligence failure. China and India has interest in the island nation, which may lead to Sri Lanka having bigger security ties to fight armed groups or terrorist organizations.   

The Uganda and Rwanda Tension

Ugandan and Rwandan relations have reached a nadir. Border disputes and power shifts are occurring in eastern and central parts of Africa. What is happening now is a closed border with Uganda. This sudden change in behavior in the last few weeks seems peculiar seeing as both leaders of this countries have collaborated since the 1980s. Paul Kagame was given assistance by Yoweri Musevenei  in the early years of his presidency.  Travel bans have been imposed and it appears that this may escalate into a larger conflict. Both countries have accused each other of supporting rebel factions and various armed groups. There are also accusations of both countries accusing each other of espionage. Armed conflict whether it is a civil war or war between nations could have devastating effects. The Seleka rebels in the African Central Republic and the M23 rebels demonstrated how easily certain states can become unstable. The risk to the civilian population becomes even greater when refugees attempt to flee war zones. The dreams of economic cooperation are being destroyed by two longtime leaders. This tension may not be about conflict between two countries or different ethnic groups. It may be a means for both Kagame and Musevenei to justify extending their rule. Other countries and armed groups provide a perfect scapegoat for increasing government power under the context of  national security. The fall of Omar Al-Bashir and Adelaziz Bouteflika has most likely made other African leaders fearful of sudden insurrection or popular protests. For now, it is in the best interest of Kampala and Kigali to reestablish peaceful diplomatic ties. The African Union may have to be more proactive in a mediation process between the two countries.   

A Military Coup Has Ended Omar Al-Bashir's Rule

Another major change in the landscape of African politics has occurred. President Omar Al-Bashir was deposed by a military coup. It was not the protests that brought his downfall, rather loss of support from the military. Coups have been a part of Sudan's modern history. Jafar Numeri came to power through a military coup in 1970. He was later removed by the military in 1985. Between the years of 1985 and 1989 there was a experiment with a civilian government that was unable to meet the needs of the Sudanese people. Omar Al-Bashir seized power in 1989 and for 30 years he was the face of Sudan. He survived protests, the Second Sudanese Civil War, the Darfur conflict, and Western attempts to have him brought to the ICC. The military, which he may not have predicted turned against him. It would be erroneous to assume that the protests will end. Already, protesters had voiced their discontent with the prospect of military rule for an unknown number of years. A new sense of political consciousness may be developing far beyond simply removing longtime leaders. The events in Algeria and Sudan may have a reverse effect in some areas of the continent. Leaders that came to power in the late 20th century could be growing more concerned that a new era of political culture is emerging. Idris Deby, Yoweri Musevenei and Paul Kagame may seek to become more oppressive relative to domestic policy. Chad and Egypt seeing as they are more stable countries may seek to extend their influence in Sudanese affairs. Ethiopia and Eritrea seeing as they are on a pathway to peace have a common interest in Sudanese foreign relations. There remains the fear that instability could spread into South Sudan or the African Central Republic.     

Prime Minister Theresa May Asks For Another Extension To Leaving The EU

Brexit as it has been called describes the United Kingdom's attempt to leave the European Union. Economic integration and neoliberal capitalism have been brought into question with the European debt crisis. What started as a political  miscalculation by David Cameron in a referendum has escalated into a full blown crisis in British politics. The Conservative Party and Labour Party cannot reach a consensus on terms of withdraw. Simultaneously, the EU may not want to see the UK leave, fearing that if it becomes economically successful, other countries will follow. Questions related to tariffs, immigration, and travel have become more complex in the negotiation process. Theresa May has shown she is more determined to get an agreement, by reaching out to the opposition. The fear is that the UK leaves with no agreement, which has a level of economic risk. The average citizen either way does not see improvement either being part or out of the EU. Prior to this extension, it appeared as if Theresa May was going to resign. Her government could be on the verge of collapse, if the current attempt fails. Constant votes, debate, and arguments about the UK's future show the limitations of  the parliamentary system. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn expressed his desire to meet with Prime Minister Theresa May to reach a solution to an EU exit. Whatever the result, this will have an impact on stocks and global trade.